Temporal trend

时间趋势
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    尽管新烟碱(NEO)在生命早期的潜在影响受到了相当多的关注,关于母亲和婴儿接触近地天体的数据很少。在这项研究中,在配对的母体血清(MS)中广泛检测到四个母体NEO和一个代谢物,脐带血清(UCS)和母乳(BM)样品,总NEO浓度中位数(ΣNEO)为113、160和69ng/L,分别。观察到N-去甲基-啶虫脒的下降趋势(30%/年),2014年至2022年期间,母乳中的啶虫脒(22%/年)和ΣNEO(15%/年),而噻虫胺(17%/年)和噻虫嗪(30%/年)呈上升趋势。N-去甲基-啶虫脒是所有基质中的主要化合物。然而,2022年,N-去甲基啶虫脒(35%)和噻虫嗪(36%)在母乳中的贡献相似.此外,自2018年以来,噻虫嗪已成为ΣNEO每日摄入量的主要贡献者,2022年的贡献率最高,为71%,这表明NEO的影响继续发展,应更多关注新的NEO。值得注意的是,配对UCS和MS之间的近地天体相关性和比值比配对BM和MS之间的相关性和比值更显著,分别,这表明NEO暴露在很大程度上受到产前时期的影响。
    Although the potential effects of neonicotinoids (NEOs) in early life have received considerable attention, data on the exposure of mothers and infants to NEOs are scarce. In this study, four parent NEOs and one metabolite were widely detected in paired maternal serum (MS), umbilical cord serum (UCS) and breast milk (BM) samples, with median total NEO concentrations (ΣNEOs) of 113, 160 and 69 ng/L, respectively. Decreasing trends were observed for N-desmethyl-acetamiprid (30 %/year), acetamiprid (22 %/year) and ΣNEOs (15 %/year) in breast milk between 2014 and 2022, whereas increasing trends were seen for clothianidin (17 %/year) and thiamethoxam (30 %/year). N-desmethyl-acetamiprid was the predominant compound in all matrices. However, the contributions of N-desmethyl-acetamiprid (35 %) and thiamethoxam (36 %) in breast milk were similar in 2022. Moreover, thiamethoxam has become the predominant contributor to the estimated daily intake of ΣNEOs since 2018, with the highest contribution of 71 % in 2022, suggesting the effects of NEOs continue to evolve and more attention should be paid to the new NEOs. Notably, the correlations and ratios of NEOs between paired UCS and MS were more significant and higher than those between paired BM and MS, respectively, indicating that NEO exposure was largely affected by the prenatal period.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    中国是全世界肝癌发病率最高的国家,肝癌在中国所有癌症中处于前列。然而,目前中国对肝癌的研究主要依赖于外推数据或相对滞后的数据,对次区域和特定人口群体的关注有限。
    这项研究的目的是通过探索不同地理区域内肝癌死亡率的时空趋势和由其导致的寿命损失(YLL)来确定肝癌的地理差异。气候区,和中国的人口群体。
    使用2013年至2020年国家死亡监测系统的数据来计算中国肝癌的年龄标准化死亡率(LASMR)和YLL。按性别分组分析肝癌的空间分布和时间变化趋势,年龄,区域,和气候分类。估计的年度百分比变化被用来描述不同地区的肝癌趋势,并应用偏相关来探讨LASMR与纬度之间的关联。
    在中国,男性LASMR平均值从2013年的28.79降至2020年的26.38/100,000,女性为11.09降至9.83/100,000.死亡率的下降在所有年龄组都是一致的。地理上,广西是中国男性LASMR最高的国家,比率为50.15/10万,而对于女性来说,那是黑龙江,比率为16.64/100,000。在这些地区,广西大部分地区男性的LASMR为32.32至74.98/100,000,而大部分黑龙江地区女性的LASMR为13.72至21.86/100,000。LASMR的趋势因地区而异。对男人和女人来说,从2013年到2020年,贵州LASMR呈增长趋势,估计年度百分比变化范围从10.05%到29.07%,从10.09%到21.71%,分别。男性和女性都观察到LASMR的增加,纬度在40平行以下增加。然而,总的来说,男性LASMR与纬度呈正相关(R=0.225;P<.001),而在女性中,呈负相关(R=0.083;P=.04)。男性中的高LASMR地区与亚热带地区一致,比如Cwa和Cfa.65岁及以上年龄组,南部地区,和Cwa气候区的YLL率最高,分别为每100,000年4850.50、495.50和440.17。然而,这些群体的总体趋势在此期间有所下降。
    尽管中国肝癌总体呈下降趋势,地区和人口之间仍然存在明显的差异。未来防治工作应重点关注高危地区和人群,以进一步降低我国肝癌的负担。
    UNASSIGNED: China has the highest number of liver cancers worldwide, and liver cancer is at the forefront of all cancers in China. However, current research on liver cancer in China primarily relies on extrapolated data or relatively lagging data, with limited focus on subregions and specific population groups.
    UNASSIGNED: The purpose of this study is to identify geographic disparities in liver cancer by exploring the spatial and temporal trends of liver cancer mortality and the years of life lost (YLL) caused by it within distinct geographical regions, climate zones, and population groups in China.
    UNASSIGNED: Data from the National Death Surveillance System between 2013 and 2020 were used to calculate the age-standardized mortality rate of liver cancer (LASMR) and YLL from liver cancer in China. The spatial distribution and temporal trends of liver cancer were analyzed in subgroups by sex, age, region, and climate classification. Estimated annual percentage change was used to describe liver cancer trends in various regions, and partial correlation was applied to explore associations between LASMR and latitude.
    UNASSIGNED: In China, the average LASMR decreased from 28.79 in 2013 to 26.38 per 100,000 in 2020 among men and 11.09 to 9.83 per 100,000 among women. This decline in mortality was consistent across all age groups. Geographically, Guangxi had the highest LASMR for men in China, with a rate of 50.15 per 100,000, while for women, it was Heilongjiang, with a rate of 16.64 per 100,000. Within these regions, the LASMR among men in most parts of Guangxi ranged from 32.32 to 74.98 per 100,000, whereas the LASMR among women in the majority of Heilongjiang ranged from 13.72 to 21.86 per 100,000. The trend of LASMR varied among regions. For both men and women, Guizhou showed an increasing trend in LASMR from 2013 to 2020, with estimated annual percentage changes ranging from 10.05% to 29.07% and from 10.09% to 21.71%, respectively. Both men and women observed an increase in LASMR with increasing latitude below the 40th parallel. However, overall, LASMR in men was positively correlated with latitude (R=0.225; P<.001), while in women, it showed a negative correlation (R=0.083; P=.04). High LASMR areas among men aligned with subtropical zones, like Cwa and Cfa. The age group 65 years and older, the southern region, and the Cwa climate zone had the highest YLL rates at 4850.50, 495.50, and 440.17 per 100,000, respectively. However, the overall trends in these groups showed a decline over the period.
    UNASSIGNED: Despite the declining overall trend of liver cancer in China, there are still marked disparities between regions and populations. Future prevention and control should focus on high-risk regions and populations to further reduce the burden of liver cancer in China.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:分析全球负担,女性乳腺癌和妇科癌症(FeBGC)的趋势和跨国不平等。
    方法:基于人群的研究。
    方法:数据来自2019年全球疾病负担研究。
    方法:诊断为FeBGC的个体。
    方法:年龄标准化死亡率(ASMR),年龄标准化残疾调整寿命年(DALYs)率(ASDRs)及其95%不确定区间(UI)描述了这一负担。年龄标准化率(ASR)的估计年度百分比变化(EAPC)及其置信区间(CI)说明了趋势。使用不平等斜率指数(SII)和集中指数对社会不平等进行了量化。
    方法:主要结果指标是FeBGC的负担及其不平等随时间的趋势。
    结果:2019年,每10万名女性的ASDR如下:乳腺癌:473.83(95%UI:437.30-510.51),宫颈癌:210.64(95%UI:177.67-234.85),卵巢癌:124.68(95%UI:109.13-138.67)和子宫癌:210.64(95%UI:177.67-234.85)。从1990年到2019年的每年趋势表示为ASDR的EAPC,其中:乳腺癌:-0.51(95%CI:-0.57至-0.45);宫颈癌:-0.95(95%CI:-0.99至-0.89);卵巢癌:-0.08(95%CI:-0.12至-0.04);和子宫癌:-0.84(95%CI:-0.93至-0.75)。在社会不平等分析(1990-2019年)中,乳腺的SII从689.26更改为607.08,从-226.66到-239.92宫颈,卵巢癌从222.45到228.83,子宫癌从74.61到103.58。浓度指数值范围为0.2至0.4。
    结论:从1990年到2019年,全球FeBGC的负担呈下降趋势。社会人口指数(SDI)较高的国家或地区承担较高的DALYs乳房负担,卵巢癌和子宫癌,而SDI较低的人承受着较重的子宫颈癌负担。这些不平等随着时间的推移而增加。
    OBJECTIVE: To analyse the global burden, trends and cross-country inequalities of female breast and gynaecologic cancers (FeBGCs).
    METHODS: Population-Based Study.
    METHODS: Data sourced from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.
    METHODS: Individuals diagnosed with FeBGCs.
    METHODS: Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs), age-standardised Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) rates (ASDRs) and their 95% uncertainty interval (UI) described the burden. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) and their confidence interval (CI) of age-standardised rates (ASRs) illustrated trends. Social inequalities were quantified using the Slope Index of Inequality (SII) and Concentration Index.
    METHODS: The main outcome measures were the burden of FeBGCs and the trends in its inequalities over time.
    RESULTS: In 2019, the ASDRs per 100 000 females were as follows: breast cancer: 473.83 (95% UI: 437.30-510.51), cervical cancer: 210.64 (95% UI: 177.67-234.85), ovarian cancer: 124.68 (95% UI: 109.13-138.67) and uterine cancer: 210.64 (95% UI: 177.67-234.85). The trends per year from 1990 to 2019 were expressed as EAPCs of ASDRs and these: for Breast cancer: -0.51 (95% CI: -0.57 to -0.45); Cervical cancer: -0.95 (95% CI: -0.99 to -0.89); Ovarian cancer: -0.08 (95% CI: -0.12 to -0.04); and Uterine cancer: -0.84 (95% CI: -0.93 to -0.75). In the Social Inequalities Analysis (1990-2019) the SII changed from 689.26 to 607.08 for Breast, from -226.66 to -239.92 for cervical, from 222.45 to 228.83 for ovarian and from 74.61 to 103.58 for uterine cancer. The concentration index values ranged from 0.2 to 0.4.
    CONCLUSIONS: The burden of FeBGCs worldwide showed a downward trend from 1990 to 2019. Countries or regions with higher Socio-demographic Index (SDI) bear a higher DALYs burden of breast, ovarian and uterine cancers, while those with lower SDI bear a heavier burden of cervical cancer. These inequalities increased over time.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:我们旨在调查全因死亡率的时间趋势,心力衰竭(HF)住院,1997年至2018年诊断为心力衰竭和心房颤动(AF)的患者的卒中。
    结果:来自丹麦全国范围的登记册,我们在1997年至2018年期间确认了152.059例新发HF患者.根据新发HF和AF状态的年份对患者进行分组:普遍AF(n=34.734),新发房颤(n=12.691),无AF(n=104.634)。在1997年至2018年期间,中位年龄从76岁下降到73岁。流行或新发房颤患者的比例从24.7%(n=9256)增加到35.8%(n=14.970)。全因死亡率的五年风险从69.1%(CI:67.9%-70.2%)上升到51.3%(CI:49.9%-52.7%),62.3%(CI:60.5%-64.4%)至43.0%(CI:40.5%-45.5%),和61.9%(CI:61.3%-62.4%)至36.7%(CI:35.9%-37.6%),新发房颤和无房颤组,分别。观察到HF住院风险的变化很小。房颤组的五年卒中风险从8.5%(CI:7.8%-9.1%)下降到5.0%(CI:4.4%-5.5%),新发房颤的8.2%(CI:7.2%-9.2%)至4.6%(CI:3.7%-5.5%),无房颤组6.3%(CI:6.1%-6.6%)至4.9%(CI:4.6%-5.3%)。同时,对于流行(从42.7%到93.1%)和新发房颤(从41.9%到92.5%)的患者,抗凝治疗增加.
    结论:从1997年到2018年,我们观察到HF和并存的AF患者有所增加。所有患者的死亡率都下降了,无论AF状态如何。抗凝治疗增加,2013-2018年,房颤患者的卒中风险降低至与无房颤患者相似的水平.
    OBJECTIVE: We aimed to investigate temporal trends in all-cause mortality, heart failure (HF) hospitalisation, and stroke from 1997 to 2018 in patients diagnosed with both HF and atrial fibrillation (AF).
    RESULTS: From Danish nationwide registers, we identified 152 059 patients with new-onset HF between 1997 and 2018. Patients were grouped according to year of new-onset HF and AF-status: Prevalent AF (n = 34 734), New-onset AF (n = 12 691), and No AF (n = 104 634). Median age decreased from 76 to 73 years between 1997 and 2018. The proportion of patients with prevalent or new-onset AF increased from 24.7% (n = 9256) to 35.8% (n = 14 970). Five-year risk of all-cause mortality went from 69.1% (CI: 67.9%-70.2%) to 51.3% (CI: 49.9%-52.7%), 62.3% (CI: 60.5%-64.4%) to 43.0% (CI: 40.5%-45.5%), and 61.9% (CI: 61.3%-62.4%) to 36.7% (CI: 35.9%-37.6%) for the Prevalent AF, New-onset AF and No AF-group, respectively. Minimal changes were observed in the risk of HF-hospitalisation. Five-year stroke risk decreased from 8.5% (CI: 7.8%-9.1%) to 5.0% (CI: 4.4%-5.5%) for the prevalent AF group, 8.2% (CI: 7.2%-9.2%) to 4.6% (CI: 3.7%-5.5%) for new-onset AF, and 6.3% (CI: 6.1%-6.6%) to 4.9% (CI: 4.6%-5.3%) for the No AF group. Simultaneously, anticoagulant therapy increased for patients with prevalent (from 42.7% to 93.1%) and new-onset AF (from 41.9% to 92.5%).
    CONCLUSIONS: From 1997 to 2018, we observed an increase in patients with HF and co-existing AF. Mortality decreased for all patients, regardless of AF-status. Anticoagulation therapy increased, and stroke risk for patients with AF was reduced to a similar level as patients without AF in 2013-2018.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    本研究旨在研究精神病患者20年全因死亡率的时间趋势,并基于1995年1月1日至2014年12月31日期间从87家精神病医院出院的218,703名芬兰精神障碍成年人,调查危险因素对时间趋势的影响。具有随机医院效应的Poisson模型的年龄周期队列分析估计了个体死亡率和相关因素的时间趋势,医疗保健系统,和社会层面,遵循WHO六个主要精神病诊断的多层次干预框架模型。调整后的年死亡率每年下降2.2%(RR:0.978[95%CI0.976-0.980]),调整所有风险因素后,增幅为2.8%,根据诊断,下降率在2.0%至3.6%之间。个体水平因素占所有患者下降率的54.5%,对人格障碍患者的影响最大,其次是情感障碍患者和精神分裂症患者。已确定的下降趋势和相关因素对于具有特定精神病诊断的个人是可预防和可改变的,可能会导致制定有针对性的服务和干预策略,以进一步降低人群的死亡率。
    This study aims to examine 20-year temporal trends in all-cause mortality among psychiatric patients and investigating impacts of risk factors on the time trends based on 218,703 Finnish adults with mental disorders who were discharged from 87 psychiatric hospitals between 1 Jan 1995 and 31 Dec 2014. The age-period-cohort analysis of Poisson model with random hospital effects estimated temporal trends in death rate and associated factors at individual, healthcare system, and society levels, following the WHO multilevel intervention framework model for six major psychiatric diagnosis. The adjusted annual mortality declined by 2.2 % annually (RR: 0.978 [95 % CI 0.976-0.980]) for all individuals, and by 2.8 % after adjusting for all risk factors, with varied decreasing rate between 2.0 % and 3.6 % by diagnosis. Individual level factors accounted for the declining rate by 54.5 % for all patients, with the highest impact on patients with personality disorders, followed by patients with affective disorders and patients with schizophrenia. Identified declining trends and associated factors which are preventable and modifiable for individuals with specific psychiatric diagnosis may lead to develop targeted service and intervention strategies in bringing down mortality further for the population.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    近年来,新兴的芳基有机磷酸酯(芳基-OPEs)已被用作有机卤素阻燃剂的替代品;然而,它们在城市河口沉积物中的环境发生和相关影响尚未得到充分调查,阻碍监管决策。在这里,基于表层沉积物和沉积物核心分析的实地调查和建模被用来揭示珠江口芳基-OPEs的历史污染和当前环境影响,华南。我们的结果表明,芳基-OPE发射大幅增加,特别是新兴的芳基-OPEs,自2000年代以来,通过泥沙输送到河口。在过去十年中,新兴的芳基-OPEs占年度总投入的83%,平均每年投入155,000克。此外,新兴与传统的芳基-OPE浓度比随着与海岸距离的减小而增加,在高度城市化的河流出口达到顶峰。这些发现表明,河口沉积物中新兴的芳基-OPEs库存可能会增加,其排放量已超过传统的芳基-OPEs。我们基于风险的优先筛选方法表明,一些新兴的芳基-OPEs,特别是双酚A双(磷酸二苯酯),在河口沉积物中比传统的芳基-OPEs具有更高的环境风险。总的来说,我们的研究强调了认识到新兴芳基-OPEs对环境的影响的重要性.
    Emerging aryl organophosphate esters (aryl-OPEs) have been employed as substitutes for organohalogen flame retardants in recent years; however, their environmental occurrence and associated impacts in urban estuarine sediments have not been adequately investigated, impeding regulatory decision-making. Herein, field-based investigations and modeling based on surface sediment and sediment core analysis were employed to uncover the historical pollution and current environmental impacts of aryl-OPEs in the Pearl River Estuary, South China. Our results revealed a substantial increase in aryl-OPE emission, particularly emerging aryl-OPEs, through sediment transport to the estuary since the 2000s. The emerging aryl-OPEs comprised 83% of the total annual input in the past decade, with an average annual input of 155,000 g. Additionally, the emerging-to-traditional aryl-OPE concentration ratios increased with decreasing distance from the shore, peaking in the highly urbanized riverine outlets. These findings indicate that inventories of emerging aryl-OPEs are likely increasing in estuarine sediments and their emissions are surpassing those of traditional aryl-OPEs. Our risk-based priority screening approach indicates that some emerging aryl-OPEs, particularly bisphenol A bis(diphenyl phosphate), can pose a higher environmental risk than traditional aryl-OPEs in estuarine sediments. Overall, our study highlights the importance of recognizing the environmental impacts of emerging aryl-OPEs.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    人口被认为是碳排放的主要非经济驱动因素,导致气候危机,尤其是在中国经历了巨大的人口转变。与衰老相反,低生育率,中国人口转型的最显著特征,在评估碳排放时一直被忽视,由于缺乏长期数据。为了缩小这个差距,提出了一个将1997年至2018年连续投入产出表与Mann-Kendall检验和向量自回归相结合的集成框架,以阐明家庭嵌入碳排放的波动趋势和低生育率的驱动模式,老化,和城市化。我们的主要发现表明,在过去的二十年中,家庭嵌入碳排放量的变化急剧增加。中国家庭嵌入碳排放量的增长在2001年开始加速,落后于人口指标1年。低生育率对家庭嵌入碳排放有积极影响。更重要的是,低生育率的影响比老龄化更为显著和深远。这些建议表明,政策制定者应考虑采取积极的刺激生育率和低碳生活方式的政策。
    A population is regarded as the main non-economic driver of carbon emissions, causing the climatic crisis, especially in China experiencing a dramatic demographic transition. In contrast to aging, low fertility, the most remarkable feature of the Chinese population transition, has always been ignored when evaluating carbon emissions, due to the lack of long-run data. To narrow this gap, an integrated framework combining the continuous input-output tables from 1997 to 2018 with the Mann-Kendall test and vector auto-regression was presented to clarify the fluctuating trend of household embedded carbon emissions and the driving pattern of low fertility, aging, and urbanization. Our main findings showed that changes in household embedded carbon emissions have increased sharply in the last two decades. The growth of Chinese household embedded carbon emissions began to accelerate in 2001, which lagged 1 year behind the demographic indicators. Low fertility has a positive impact on households\' embedded carbon emissions. More importantly, the impact of low fertility is more significant and far-reaching than that of aging. These suggest that aggressive policies for stimulating fertility and low-carbon lifestyles should be considered by policy makers.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:对痴呆症的可改变危险因素(MRF)的兴趣很高,鉴于个人,社会,以及混乱的经济影响,特别是在英国等老龄化社会。探索归因于MRF的痴呆的人群归因分数(PAF)以及这可能随着时间的推移而发生的变化尚不清楚。解开MRF的时间动态对于制定基于证据和有效的公共卫生政策至关重要。这项调查研究了英格兰痴呆症MRF的时间轨迹。
    方法:我们使用了英国老龄化纵向研究的数据,2004年至2019年期间收集的八波小组研究(共76,904次采访)。我们计算了12个MRF的PAF(包括6个早至中年因素和6个晚年因素),根据柳叶刀委员会的建议,以及每个风险因素的单个加权PAF(IW-PAF)。分析了时间趋势,以了解研究期间总体PAF和IW-PAF的变化。按性别和社会经济地位(SES)进行亚组分析。
    结果:痴呆症MRF的总体PAF从2004/2005年的46.73%变化到2018/2019年的36.79%,尽管这一趋势没有统计学意义。在2004-2019年期间,高血压,平均IW-PAF为8.21%,是痴呆症的主要可改变的决定因素,其次是肥胖(6.16%),社会隔离(5.61%),听力损失(4.81%),抑郁症(4.72%),教育程度低(4.63%),缺乏体力活动(3.26%),糖尿病(2.49%),吸烟(2.0%),过量饮酒(1.16%),空气污染(0.42%),和创伤性脑损伤(TBI)(0.26%)。在2004-2019年期间,只有低教育程度的IW-PAF,社会孤立,吸烟呈显著下降趋势,而其他因素的IW-PAF没有显著变化或增加(包括TBI,糖尿病,空气污染)。根据性别分类,在女性中发现了更高的MRF总体PAF,主要与晚年风险因素相关,最值得注意的是社会孤立,抑郁症,缺乏体力活动。此外,听力损失,被归类为早期到中期的因素,在确定的性别差异中发挥了补充作用。在SES的PAF评估中,相当的差异是明显的,低收入群体患痴呆症的风险更高,很大程度上与诸如社会隔离之类的晚年因素有关,缺乏身体活动,抑郁症,和吸烟。早期到中年的因素,特别是,低教育和肥胖,还观察到与SES相关的痴呆风险差异。时间PAF和IW-PAF趋势,按性别和SES分层,揭示了性别或SES类别之间的MRFPAF差距已经持续或增加。
    结论:在英格兰,已知可改变的危险因素导致的痴呆比例随时间变化不大.观察到的趋势强调了这些风险因素的持续相关性,以及有针对性的公共卫生战略来应对这些风险因素的必要性。
    BACKGROUND: Interest in modifiable risk factors (MRFs) for dementia is high, given the personal, social, and economic impact of the disorder, especially in ageing societies such as the United Kingdom. Exploring the population attributable fraction (PAF) of dementia attributable to MRFs and how this may have changed over time remains unclear. Unravelling the temporal dynamics of MRFs is crucial for informing the development of evidence-based and effective public health policies. This investigation examined the temporal trajectories of MRFs for dementia in England.
    METHODS: We used data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, a panel study over eight waves collected between 2004 and 2019 (76,904 interviews in total). We calculated the PAFs for twelve MRFs (including six early- to mid-life factors and six late-life factors), as recommended by the Lancet Commission, and the individual weighted PAFs (IW-PAFs) for each risk factor. Temporal trends were analysed to understand the changes in the overall PAF and IW-PAF over the study period. Subgroup analyses were conducted by sex and socioeconomic status (SES).
    RESULTS: The overall PAF for dementia MRFs changed from 46.73% in 2004/2005 to 36.79% in 2018/2019, though this trend was not statistically significant. During 2004-2019, hypertension, with an average IW-PAF of 8.21%, was the primary modifiable determinant of dementia, followed by obesity (6.16%), social isolation (5.61%), hearing loss (4.81%), depression (4.72%), low education (4.63%), physical inactivity (3.26%), diabetes mellitus (2.49%), smoking (2.0%), excessive alcohol consumption (1.16%), air pollution (0.42%), and traumatic brain injury (TBI) (0.26%). During 2004-2019, only IW-PAFs of low education, social isolation, and smoking showed significant decreasing trends, while IW-PAFs of other factors either did not change significantly or increased (including TBI, diabetes mellitus, and air pollution). Upon sex-specific disaggregation, a higher overall PAF for MRFs was found among women, predominantly associated with later-life risk factors, most notably social isolation, depression, and physical inactivity. Additionally, hearing loss, classified as an early- to mid-life factor, played a supplementary role in the identified sex disparity. A comparable discrepancy was evident upon PAF evaluation by SES, with lower income groups experiencing a higher dementia risk, largely tied to later-life factors such as social isolation, physical inactivity, depression, and smoking. Early- to mid-life factors, in particular, low education and obesity, were also observed to contribute to the SES-associated divergence in dementia risk. Temporal PAF and IW-PAF trends, stratified by sex and SES, revealed that MRF PAF gaps across sex or SES categories have persisted or increased.
    CONCLUSIONS: In England, there was little change over time in the proportion of dementia attributable to known modifiable risk factors. The observed trends underscore the continuing relevance of these risk factors and the need for targeted public health strategies to address them.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:本研究旨在调查发病率,阴道癌的危险因素和趋势。
    方法:回顾性观察设计。
    方法:从多个来源收集数据,包括全球癌症观察站,五大洲的癌症发病率,全球疾病负担,世界银行和联合国。
    方法:诊断为阴道癌的个体。
    方法:该研究从指定来源收集了有关阴道癌的数据。计算了不同地区和年龄组的阴道癌的年龄标准化率(ASR)。进行了多变量和单变量线性回归分析,以检查危险因素与阴道癌发病率之间的关联。趋势分析采用连接点回归分析,并计算平均年百分比变化(AAPC)以量化时间趋势。
    方法:本研究的主要结局指标是阴道癌的发病率,与该疾病相关的危险因素及其发病率随时间的趋势。
    结果:2020年有17908例新报告的阴道癌病例(ASR=0.36,95%CI0.30-0.44),其中南亚和南部非洲报告的ASR最高。与较高的阴道癌发病率相关的危险因素包括较高的不安全性行为和人类免疫缺陷病毒(HIV)感染。时间趋势显示全球发病率总体上升,与冰岛(AAPC=29.56,95%CI12.12-49.71),智利(AAPC=22.83,95%CI13.20-33.27),巴林(AAPC=22.05,95%CI10.83-34.40)和英国(AAPC=1.40,95%CI0.41-2.39)显示出最显著的上升趋势。
    结论:与阴道癌相关的显著地区差异和危险因素强调了有针对性的干预和教育的必要性,特别是在人类发展指数(HDI)较低和人乳头瘤病毒(HPV)感染率较高的地区。发病率增加的趋势强调需要提高HPV疫苗接种率以预防阴道癌的发展。
    OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate the incidence, risk factors and trends for vaginal cancer.
    METHODS: Retrospective observational design.
    METHODS: Data were collected from multiple sources, including the Global Cancer Observatory, Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Plus, Global Burden of Disease, World Bank and the United Nations.
    METHODS: Individuals diagnosed with vaginal cancer.
    METHODS: The study collected data on vaginal cancer from the specified sources. The age-standardised rate (ASR) of vaginal cancer was calculated for different regions and age groups. Multivariable and univariable linear regression analyses were performed to examine the associations between risk factors and the incidence of vaginal cancer. Trend analysis was conducted using joinpoint regression analysis, and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) was calculated to quantify the temporal trend.
    METHODS: The main outcome measures of the study were the incidence of vaginal cancer, risk factors associated with the disease and the trend of its incidence over time.
    RESULTS: There were 17 908 newly reported cases of vaginal cancer (ASR = 0.36, 95% CI 0.30-0.44) in 2020, with the highest ASRs reported in South-Central Asia and Southern Africa. Risk factors associated with a higher incidence of vaginal cancer included a higher prevalence of unsafe sex and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. The temporal trend showed an overall rising incidence globally, with Iceland (AAPC = 29.56, 95% CI 12.12-49.71), Chile (AAPC = 22.83, 95% CI 13.20-33.27), Bahrain (AAPC = 22.05, 95% CI 10.83-34.40) and the UK (AAPC = 1.40, 95% CI 0.41-2.39) demonstrating the most significant rising trends.
    CONCLUSIONS: The significant regional disparities and risk factors associated with vaginal cancer underscore the necessity for targeted interventions and education, particularly in regions with a lower human development index (HDI) and a higher prevalence of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection. The increasing incidence trend emphasises the need for enhanced HPV vaccination rates to prevent the development of vaginal cancer.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在中国,痴呆症构成了重大的公共卫生挑战,人口老龄化和生活方式的改变加剧了。这项研究评估了2011年至2018年新发痴呆症的可改变危险因素(MRF)的人群归因分数(PAF)的时间趋势和差异。
    我们使用了中国健康与退休纵向研究(CHARLS)的数据,涵盖75,214个人波。我们计算了柳叶刀委员会确定的12个MRF的PAF(包括6个早至中年因素和6个晚年因素)。我们还确定了每个风险因素的单个加权PAF(IW-PAF)。亚组分析按性别进行,社会经济地位(SES),和地理位置。
    痴呆症MRF的总体PAF从2011年的45.36%略有增加到2018年的52.46%,但这种变化没有统计学意义。在2011-2018年期间,贡献最大的可改变风险是低教育(平均IW-PAF11.3%),其次是抑郁症,高血压,吸烟,缺乏体力活动。在八年期间,低教育等风险因素的IW-PAF,高血压,听力损失,吸烟,空气污染呈下降趋势,虽然其他人增加了,但这些变化均无统计学意义.性别特异性分析显示,创伤性脑损伤(TBI)的IW-PAF较高,社会孤立,和女性的抑郁症,以及男性饮酒和吸烟。男性听力损失的IW-PAF下降显著。低收入个人的总体MRFPAF较高,主要是由于晚年的因素,如抑郁症。早期生活因素,比如TBI和低教育,也导致了SES差异。农村地区报告的总体MRFPAF较高,受抑郁等因素的驱动,低教育,和听力损失。研究还发现,在研究期间,不同SES组或地区的MRFPAF之间的差距保持不变或增加。
    该研究表明,中国痴呆症的MRFPAF略有增加,但没有显着增加,强调这些风险因素的持续相关性。调查结果强调了有针对性的公共卫生战略的必要性,考虑到人口和地区差异,有效解决和降低中国多样化人群痴呆症风险。
    这项工作得到了北京大学全球健康与发展青年奖学金的支持。
    UNASSIGNED: In China, dementia poses a significant public health challenge, exacerbated by an ageing population and lifestyle changes. This study assesses the temporal trends and disparities in the population-attributable fractions (PAFs) of modifiable risk factors (MRFs) for new-onset dementia from 2011 to 2018.
    UNASSIGNED: We used data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), covering 75,214 person-waves. We calculated PAFs for 12 MRFs identified by the Lancet Commission (including six early-to mid-life factors and six late-life factors). We also determined the individual weighted PAFs (IW-PAFs) for each risk factor. Subgroup analyses were conducted by sex, socio-economic status (SES), and geographic location.
    UNASSIGNED: The overall PAF for dementia MRFs had a slight increase from 45.36% in 2011 to 52.46% in 2018, yet this change wasn\'t statistically significant. During 2011-2018, the most contributing modifiable risk was low education (average IW-PAF 11.3%), followed by depression, hypertension, smoking, and physical inactivity. Over the eight-year period, IW-PAFs for risk factors like low education, hypertension, hearing loss, smoking, and air pollution showed decreasing trends, while others increased, but none of these changes were statistically significant. Sex-specific analysis revealed higher IW-PAFs for traumatic brain injury (TBI), social isolation, and depression in women, and for alcohol and smoking in men. The decline in IW-PAF for men\'s hearing loss were significant. Lower-income individuals had higher overall MRF PAFs, largely due to later-life factors like depression. Early-life factors, such as TBI and low education, also contributed to SES disparities. Rural areas reported higher overall MRF PAFs, driven by factors like depression, low education, and hearing loss. The study also found that the gap in MRF PAFs across different SES groups or regions either remained constant or increased over the study period.
    UNASSIGNED: The study reveals a slight but non-significant increase in dementia\'s MRF PAF in China, underscoring the persistent relevance of these risk factors. The findings highlight the need for targeted public health strategies, considering the demographic and regional differences, to effectively tackle and reduce dementia risk in China\'s diverse population.
    UNASSIGNED: This work was supported by the PKU Young Scholarship in Global Health and Development.
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