BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is an important public health problem worldwide; therefore, forecasting CKD mortality rates and death numbers globally is vital for planning CKD prevention programs. This study aimed to characterize the temporal trends in CKD mortality at the international level from 1990 to 2019 and predict CKD mortality rates and numbers until 2030.
METHODS: Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study. A joinpoint regression model was used to estimate the average annual percentage change in CKD mortality rates and numbers. Finally, we used a generalized additive model to predict CKD mortality through 2030.
RESULTS: The number of CKD-related deaths worldwide increased from 591.80 thousand in 1990 to 1425.67 thousand in 2019. The CKD age-adjusted mortality rate increased from 15.95 per 100,000 people to 18.35 per 100,000 people during the same period. Between 2020 and 2030, the number of CKD deaths is forecasted to increase further to 1812.85 thousand by 2030. The CKD age-adjusted mortality rate is expected to decrease slightly to 17.76 per 100,000 people (95% credible interval (CrI): 13.84 to 21.68). Globally, it is predicted that in the next decade, the CKD mortality rate will decrease in men, women, all subgroups of disease etiology except glomerulonephritis, people younger than 40 years old, and all groupings of countries based on the sociodemographic index (SDI) except high-middle-SDI countries.
CONCLUSIONS: The CKD mortality rate is predicted to decrease in the next decade. However, more attention should be given to people with glomerulonephritis, people over 40 years old, and people in high- to middle-income countries because the mortality rate due to CKD in these subgroups is expected to increase until 2030.

In this article, we provided a comprehensive overview and in-depth analysis of global patterns and temporal trends in years lived with disability (YLDs) for musculoskeletal (MSK) disorders in individuals aged ≥70. Data on YLDs for MSK disorders in individuals aged ≥70 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) was calculated to assess the temporal trends in the YLDs rate of MSK disorders. A Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model was used to predict the YLDs rate up to the year 2040. In 2019, the global rate of YLDs for MSK disorders in individuals aged ≥70 were 4819.81 (95 % UI: 3402.91 - 6550.77) per 100,000 persons. The YLDs rate of MSK disorders in female was 1.36 times higher than that in male, and was highest in high SDI regions. From 1990 to 2019, the global YLDs rate showed a slightly downward trend (AAPC = -0.04 %, 95 % CI: -0.06 % to -0.03 %), while it significantly increased in high, low-middle, low SDI regions. Tobacco and high body mass index were the primary risk factors worldwide, while in low SDI regions, occupational risks emerged as the predominant factors. Up to 2040, the global YLDs rate of MSK disorders are expected to increase by 1.78 %, with 36.39 %, 20.66 %, 18.96 % and 5.32 % growth in other MSK disorders, rheumatoid arthritis, neck pain and osteoarthritis. MSK disorders are a significant and continuously growing public health concern among older adults. Tailored interventions should be developed for older adults, taking into account the variations across distributions, trends, and risk factors in terms of sex and SDI levels.

UNASSIGNED: China has the highest number of liver cancers worldwide, and liver cancer is at the forefront of all cancers in China. However, current research on liver cancer in China primarily relies on extrapolated data or relatively lagging data, with limited focus on subregions and specific population groups.
UNASSIGNED: The purpose of this study is to identify geographic disparities in liver cancer by exploring the spatial and temporal trends of liver cancer mortality and the years of life lost (YLL) caused by it within distinct geographical regions, climate zones, and population groups in China.
UNASSIGNED: Data from the National Death Surveillance System between 2013 and 2020 were used to calculate the age-standardized mortality rate of liver cancer (LASMR) and YLL from liver cancer in China. The spatial distribution and temporal trends of liver cancer were analyzed in subgroups by sex, age, region, and climate classification. Estimated annual percentage change was used to describe liver cancer trends in various regions, and partial correlation was applied to explore associations between LASMR and latitude.
UNASSIGNED: In China, the average LASMR decreased from 28.79 in 2013 to 26.38 per 100,000 in 2020 among men and 11.09 to 9.83 per 100,000 among women. This decline in mortality was consistent across all age groups. Geographically, Guangxi had the highest LASMR for men in China, with a rate of 50.15 per 100,000, while for women, it was Heilongjiang, with a rate of 16.64 per 100,000. Within these regions, the LASMR among men in most parts of Guangxi ranged from 32.32 to 74.98 per 100,000, whereas the LASMR among women in the majority of Heilongjiang ranged from 13.72 to 21.86 per 100,000. The trend of LASMR varied among regions. For both men and women, Guizhou showed an increasing trend in LASMR from 2013 to 2020, with estimated annual percentage changes ranging from 10.05% to 29.07% and from 10.09% to 21.71%, respectively. Both men and women observed an increase in LASMR with increasing latitude below the 40th parallel. However, overall, LASMR in men was positively correlated with latitude (R=0.225; P<.001), while in women, it showed a negative correlation (R=0.083; P=.04). High LASMR areas among men aligned with subtropical zones, like Cwa and Cfa. The age group 65 years and older, the southern region, and the Cwa climate zone had the highest YLL rates at 4850.50, 495.50, and 440.17 per 100,000, respectively. However, the overall trends in these groups showed a decline over the period.
UNASSIGNED: Despite the declining overall trend of liver cancer in China, there are still marked disparities between regions and populations. Future prevention and control should focus on high-risk regions and populations to further reduce the burden of liver cancer in China.

BACKGROUND: Interest in modifiable risk factors (MRFs) for dementia is high, given the personal, social, and economic impact of the disorder, especially in ageing societies such as the United Kingdom. Exploring the population attributable fraction (PAF) of dementia attributable to MRFs and how this may have changed over time remains unclear. Unravelling the temporal dynamics of MRFs is crucial for informing the development of evidence-based and effective public health policies. This investigation examined the temporal trajectories of MRFs for dementia in England.
METHODS: We used data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, a panel study over eight waves collected between 2004 and 2019 (76,904 interviews in total). We calculated the PAFs for twelve MRFs (including six early- to mid-life factors and six late-life factors), as recommended by the Lancet Commission, and the individual weighted PAFs (IW-PAFs) for each risk factor. Temporal trends were analysed to understand the changes in the overall PAF and IW-PAF over the study period. Subgroup analyses were conducted by sex and socioeconomic status (SES).
RESULTS: The overall PAF for dementia MRFs changed from 46.73% in 2004/2005 to 36.79% in 2018/2019, though this trend was not statistically significant. During 2004-2019, hypertension, with an average IW-PAF of 8.21%, was the primary modifiable determinant of dementia, followed by obesity (6.16%), social isolation (5.61%), hearing loss (4.81%), depression (4.72%), low education (4.63%), physical inactivity (3.26%), diabetes mellitus (2.49%), smoking (2.0%), excessive alcohol consumption (1.16%), air pollution (0.42%), and traumatic brain injury (TBI) (0.26%). During 2004-2019, only IW-PAFs of low education, social isolation, and smoking showed significant decreasing trends, while IW-PAFs of other factors either did not change significantly or increased (including TBI, diabetes mellitus, and air pollution). Upon sex-specific disaggregation, a higher overall PAF for MRFs was found among women, predominantly associated with later-life risk factors, most notably social isolation, depression, and physical inactivity. Additionally, hearing loss, classified as an early- to mid-life factor, played a supplementary role in the identified sex disparity. A comparable discrepancy was evident upon PAF evaluation by SES, with lower income groups experiencing a higher dementia risk, largely tied to later-life factors such as social isolation, physical inactivity, depression, and smoking. Early- to mid-life factors, in particular, low education and obesity, were also observed to contribute to the SES-associated divergence in dementia risk. Temporal PAF and IW-PAF trends, stratified by sex and SES, revealed that MRF PAF gaps across sex or SES categories have persisted or increased.
CONCLUSIONS: In England, there was little change over time in the proportion of dementia attributable to known modifiable risk factors. The observed trends underscore the continuing relevance of these risk factors and the need for targeted public health strategies to address them.

UNASSIGNED: In China, dementia poses a significant public health challenge, exacerbated by an ageing population and lifestyle changes. This study assesses the temporal trends and disparities in the population-attributable fractions (PAFs) of modifiable risk factors (MRFs) for new-onset dementia from 2011 to 2018.
UNASSIGNED: We used data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), covering 75,214 person-waves. We calculated PAFs for 12 MRFs identified by the Lancet Commission (including six early-to mid-life factors and six late-life factors). We also determined the individual weighted PAFs (IW-PAFs) for each risk factor. Subgroup analyses were conducted by sex, socio-economic status (SES), and geographic location.
UNASSIGNED: The overall PAF for dementia MRFs had a slight increase from 45.36% in 2011 to 52.46% in 2018, yet this change wasn\'t statistically significant. During 2011-2018, the most contributing modifiable risk was low education (average IW-PAF 11.3%), followed by depression, hypertension, smoking, and physical inactivity. Over the eight-year period, IW-PAFs for risk factors like low education, hypertension, hearing loss, smoking, and air pollution showed decreasing trends, while others increased, but none of these changes were statistically significant. Sex-specific analysis revealed higher IW-PAFs for traumatic brain injury (TBI), social isolation, and depression in women, and for alcohol and smoking in men. The decline in IW-PAF for men\'s hearing loss were significant. Lower-income individuals had higher overall MRF PAFs, largely due to later-life factors like depression. Early-life factors, such as TBI and low education, also contributed to SES disparities. Rural areas reported higher overall MRF PAFs, driven by factors like depression, low education, and hearing loss. The study also found that the gap in MRF PAFs across different SES groups or regions either remained constant or increased over the study period.
UNASSIGNED: The study reveals a slight but non-significant increase in dementia\'s MRF PAF in China, underscoring the persistent relevance of these risk factors. The findings highlight the need for targeted public health strategies, considering the demographic and regional differences, to effectively tackle and reduce dementia risk in China\'s diverse population.
UNASSIGNED: This work was supported by the PKU Young Scholarship in Global Health and Development.

BACKGROUND: Depressive disorders have been identified as a significant contributor to non-fatal health loss in China. Among the various subtypes of depressive disorders, dysthymia is gaining attention due to its similarity in clinical severity and disability to major depressive disorders (MDD). However, national epidemiological data on the burden of disease and risk factors of MDD and dysthymia in China are scarce.
METHODS: This study aimed to evaluate and compare the incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) caused by MDD and dysthymia in China between 1990 and 2019. The temporal trends of the depressive disorder burden were evaluated using the average annual percentage change. The comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate the proportion of DALYs attributed to risk factors, and a Bayesian age-period-cohort model was applied to project the burden of depressive disorders.
RESULTS: From 1990 to 2019, the overall age-standardized estimates of dysthymia in China remained stable, while MDD showed a decreasing trend. Since 2006, the raw prevalence of dysthymia exceeded that of MDD for the first time, and increased alternately with MDD in recent years. Moreover, while the prevalence and burden of MDD decreased in younger age groups, it increased in the aged population. In contrast, the prevalence and burden of dysthymia remained stable across different ages. In females, 11.34% of the DALYs attributable to depressive disorders in 2019 in China were caused by intimate partner violence, which has increasingly become prominent among older women. From 2020 to 2030, the age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and DALYs of dysthymia in China are projected to remain stable, while MDD is expected to continue declining.
CONCLUSIONS: To reduce the burden of depressive disorders in China, more attention and targeted strategies are needed for dysthymia. It\'s also urgent to control potential risk factors like intimate partner violence and develop intervention strategies for older women. These efforts are crucial for improving mental health outcomes in China.

Perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are associated with adverse health effects. This study examined the trend of perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS) levels in individuals with and without pre-existing comorbidities. We analyzed the characteristics of 13,887 participants across nine U.S. NHANES cycles (1999-2000 to 2017-2018) and calculated the geometric mean (GM) of PFOA and PFOS levels, standardized by sex and age. A joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the temporal trends of serum PFOA and PFOS levels. We observed declining PFOA and PFOS serum levels among adults in NHANES from 1999-2000 to 2017-2018. Serum PFOA and PFOS concentrations were higher in men, smokers, and individuals with pre-existing CKD, hyperlipidemia, CVD, and cancer. We observed faster decline rates in PFOA levels among individuals with diabetes and CKD and faster decline rates in PFOS levels among individuals with diabetes and those without CKD. This study provided evidence of varying levels and changing trends of PFOA and PFOS between groups with and without established chronic disease, highlighting the role of environmental chemicals in the onset and development of chronic diseases.

China faces challenges in meeting the World Health Organization (WHO)\'s target of reducing hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections by 95% using 2015 as the baseline. Using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 data, joinpoint regression models were used to analyse the temporal trends in the crude incidence rates (CIRs) and age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) of acute HBV (AHBV) infections in China from 1990 to 2019. The age-period-cohort model was used to estimate the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on AHBV infection risk, while the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was applied to predict the annual number and ASIRs of AHBV infections in China through 2030. The joinpoint regression model revealed that CIRs and ASIRs decreased from 1990 to 2019, with a faster decline occurring among males and females younger than 20 years. According to the age-period-cohort model, age effects showed a steep increase followed by a gradual decline, whereas period effects showed a linear decline, and cohort effects showed a gradual rise followed by a rapid decline. The number of cases of AHBV infections in China was predicted to decline until 2030, but it is unlikely to meet the WHO\'s target. These findings provide scientific support and guidance for hepatitis B prevention and control.

UNASSIGNED: There are limited published data on mortality trends in pulmonary hypertension (PH) worldwide. The objective of this study was to assess the PH-related mortality and time trends in the general population over the past 20 years.
UNASSIGNED: We used country-level PH mortality data from the World Health Organization (WHO) mortality database (2000-19), using the International Classification of Diseases, tenth revision (ICD-10) codes (I27.0, I27.2, I27.8, or I27.9). The average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) were calculated to describe mortality trends.
UNASSIGNED: Fifty-four countries were included in this study. Between 2017 and 2019, the average age-standardized death rates (per 100,000) were 0.80 and 0.87 for males and females, respectively. Joinpoint analyses revealed a decreasing PH mortality trend for the overall population from 2000 to 2019 (AAPC -3.2 [95% confidence interval (CI) -4.1 to -2.4]), which was consistent between males and females (males: AAPC -5.3 [95% CI -6.2 to -4.4], females: AAPC -1.7 [95% CI -2.4 to -0.9]). When the estimates were stratified by etiology, we found that the mortality rates from idiopathic pulmonary arterial hypertension (I27.0) and pulmonary heart disease (unspecified, I27.9) had decreased significantly, while the mortality rates in other secondary PH (I27.2) and other specified pulmonary heart diseases (I27.8) had significantly increased. In addition, there were substantial differences in mortality rates and time trends across countries.
UNASSIGNED: Although an overall decrease in PH mortality trends over the past two decades, there were substantial differences across countries. For countries with high or rising mortality rates, more efforts are needed to reduce the mortality.

BACKGROUND: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease in livestock that has tremendous economic impact nationally. After multiple FMD outbreaks, the South Korean government implemented a vaccination policy for efficient disease control. However, during active surveillance by quarantine authorities, pig farms have reported an insufficient antibody positivity rate to FMD.
OBJECTIVE: In this study, the spatial and temporal trends of insufficiency among pig farms were analyzed, and the effect of the number of government veterinary officers was explored as a potential preventive factor.
METHODS: Various data were acquired, including national-level surveillance data for antibody insufficiency from the Korea Animal Health Integrated System, the number of veterinary officers, and the number of local pig farms. Temporal and geographical descriptive analyses were conducted to overview spatial and temporal trends. Additionally, logistic regression models were employed to investigate the association between the number of officers per pig farm with antibody insufficiency. Spatial cluster analysis was conducted to detect spatial clusters.
RESULTS: The results showed that the incidence of insufficiency tended to decrease in recent years (odds ratio [OR], 0.803; 95% confidence interval [95% CIs], 0.721-0.893), and regions with a higher density of governmental veterinary officers (OR, 0.942; 95% CIs, 0.918-0.965) were associated with a lower incidence.
CONCLUSIONS: This study implies that previously conducted national interventions would be effective, and the quality of government-provided veterinary care could play an important role in addressing the insufficient positivity rate of antibodies.