Temporal trend

时间趋势
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    我们着手估计孔源性视网膜脱离(RRD)的国际发病率,并评估其随时间的时间趋势。对RRD的全球发病率和趋势缺乏可靠的估计,急性视力丧失的主要原因.我们对RRD发生率进行了系统评价。电子数据库PubMed,Scopus,和汤森路透的WebofScience从成立到2022年6月2日进行了搜索。使用Logit转换的随机效应荟萃分析模型来获得RRD的汇总年发病率估计值。进行汇总分析以评估RRD发生率的时间趋势。在从数据库搜索中确定的20958条记录中,来自21个国家的33项研究被纳入分析(273,977人中有274,836例RRD)。世卫组织定义的6个全球区域中有3个区域的研究符合研究的纳入和排除标准。RRD的年度国际发病率估计为每100,000人口12.17(95%置信区间[CI]10.51-14.09);从1997年到2019年,RRD的时间趋势为每十年5.4/100,000(p<0.001)。在世界各地区,RRD发病率在欧洲最高(每100,000人口14.52[95%CI11.79-17.88]),其次是西太平洋(每100,000人口10.55[95%CI8.71-12.75])和美洲区域(每100,000人口8.95[95%CI6.73-11.92])。每年约有万分之一的人发展RRD。有证据表明,随着时间的推移,RRD发病率有增加的趋势,在未来20年内,目前的发病率可能会翻一番。
    We set out to estimate the international incidence of rhegmatogenous retinal detachment (RRD) and to evaluate its temporal trend over time. There is a lack of robust estimates on the worldwide incidence and trend for RRD, a major cause of acute vision loss. We conducted a systematic review of RRD incidence. The electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, and Thomson Reuters\' Web of Science were searched from inception through 2nd June 2022. Random-effects meta-analysis model with logit transformation was performed to obtain pooled annual incidence estimates of RRD. Pooled analysis was performed to evaluate the temporal trend of RRD incidence of the 20,958 records identified from the database searches; 33 studies from 21 countries were included for analysis (274,836 cases of RRD in 273,977 persons). Three of the 6 global regions as defined by WHO had studies that met the inclusion and exclusion criteria of the study. The annual international incidence of RRD was estimated to be 12.17 (95% confidence interval [CI] 10.51-14.09) per 100,000 population; with an increasing temporal trend of RRD at 5.4 per 100,000 per decade (p 0.001) from 1997 to 2019. Amongst world regions, the RRD incidence was highest in Europe (14.52 [95% CI 11.79 - 17.88] per 100,000 population), followed by Western Pacific (10.55 [95% CI 8.71-12.75] per 100,000 population) and Regions of Americas (8.95 [95% CI 6.73-11.92] per 100,000 population). About one in 10,000 persons develop RRD each year. There is evidence of increasing trend for RRD incidence over time, with possibly doubling of the current incidence rate within the next 2 decades.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:由于在高收入国家经历粮食不安全的家庭数量相对较少,大多数研究将严重程度混为一谈,这掩盖了国内和国内的差异。这项研究旨在描述生活在中等或严重粮食不安全的高收入国家的个人的特征,并调查患病率的时间趋势。与粮食安全的人相比,它评估了这些特征。
    方法:这是对粮农组织“饥饿之声”在2014-2018年间收集的数据的二次分析。数据是在年度盖洛普世界民意调查中使用食品不安全经验量表对全国代表性样本进行收集的。数据来自34个高度发达,对富裕国家进行了分析。年龄,性别,收入,教育,经历中度/重度粮食不安全(FI)的个人的居住区和家庭结构,和严重的FI,使用方差分析进行比较,韦尔奇的F,皮尔森卡方,和线性逐线性关联,取决于感兴趣的变量。分层聚类分析用于根据国家的中度/重度FI患病率对其进行分组,严重的FI。
    结果:总体而言,6.5%的加权样本为中度/重度粮食不安全(M-SFI),而1.6%的人严重粮食不安全。所有34个国家都有M-SFI个人,在所有年份,所有教育水平和收入的五分之一。经历中度/重度FI的个人比例在年份和国家之间有所不同。15个国家的中度/重度FI患病率呈显著下降趋势(p<0.001),而三个国家显示出由65岁或65岁以下人群患病率增加驱动的时间趋势(p<0.001)。比较经历中度和重度FI的个体显示男性的过度代表,重度FI组中的单身成年家庭和较低的家庭收入。
    结论:所有收入中的个人,生活在高收入国家的教育和年龄类别正在经历中度/严重的粮食不安全,但在经历更多劣势的人群中患病率更高。在研究期间,一些国家经历了升级,而其他国家则表现出中度/重度FI趋势下降。对具有相似经济和人类发展指数的国家的这种比较突出了调查社会,经济和教育政策可能对粮食不安全产生深远影响。
    Due to the relatively low numbers of households in high income countries experiencing food insecurity most studies conflate the levels of severity, which masks between- and within-country differences. This study aims to describe the characteristics of individuals living in high income countries who were moderately or severely food insecure and investigates temporal trends in prevalence. It assesses these characteristics in comparison to those who were food secure.
    This is a secondary analysis of data collected by the FAO Voices of the Hungry between 2014-2018. The data were collected during the annual Gallup World Polls of nationally representative samples using the Food Insecurity Experience Scale. Data from 34 highly developed, wealthy countries were analysed. The age, gender, income, education, area of residence and household structure of individuals experiencing moderate/severe food insecurity (FI), and severe FI, were compared using ANOVA, Welch\'s F, Pearson\'s Chi-square, and Linear-by-Linear Association, dependent on the variable of interest. Hierarchical cluster analysis was used to group countries according to their prevalence of moderate/severe FI, and severe FI.
    Overall, 6.5% of the weighted sample were moderately/severely food insecure (M-SFI), while 1.6% were severely food insecure. M-SFI individuals were present in all 34 countries, in all years and across all education levels and income quintiles. The proportion of individuals experiencing moderate/severe FI varied between years and countries. Fifteen countries showed a significant downward temporal trend in prevalence of moderate/severe FI (p < 0.001), while three countries demonstrated an increasing temporal trend driven by increasing prevalence in those aged 65 years or less (p < 0.001). Comparing individuals experiencing moderate versus severe FI showed over-representation of males, single adult households and lower household income in the severe FI group.
    Individuals across all income, education and age categories living in high income countries are experiencing moderate/severe food insecurity, but with higher prevalence in those experiencing more disadvantage. Over the study period some countries experienced escalating while others demonstrated decreasing moderate/severe FI trends. This comparison of countries with similar economic and human development indices highlights an opportunity to investigate subtle variations in social, economic and education policy that could have profound impacts on food insecurity.
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  • 文章类型: Systematic Review
    背景:偏头痛影响全球11亿人,是全球残疾的第二大原因。在临床试验中,通过比较治疗组和安慰剂组的差异反应来评估治疗功效。尽管已经研究了预防性偏头痛试验中的安慰剂反应,研究时间趋势的研究有限。这项研究评估了30年来偏头痛预防试验中安慰剂反应的趋势,并调查了潜在混杂因素的关联。如病人,治疗,并使用回归荟萃分析研究安慰剂反应的特征。
    方法:我们从1990年1月到2021年8月在书目数据库中进行了文献检索(PubMed,科克伦图书馆,和EMBASE)。根据PICOS标准选择研究,并包括随机,双盲,安慰剂对照试验评估诊断为发作性或慢性偏头痛的成年患者的预防性偏头痛治疗,有或没有光环。该协议在PROSPERO(CRD42021271732)注册。包括偏头痛疗效结果是连续的(例如,每月偏头痛日)或二分法(例如,≥50%应答率(是/否))。我们评估了安慰剂组的基线结果变化的相关性,与出版之年。在考虑混杂因素后,还评估了安慰剂反应与发表年份之间的关系。
    结果:共确定907项研究,83人符合条件。对于持续的结果,平均安慰剂反应较基线的变化显示多年来增加(rho=0.32,p=0.006).多变量回归分析还显示了多年来安慰剂反应的总体增加。二分反应的相关性分析显示,在发表年和平均安慰剂反应之间没有显着的线性趋势(rho=0.08,p=0.596)。安慰剂反应也因施用途径而异。
    结论:在过去的30年中,偏头痛预防性试验中安慰剂反应增加。在设计临床试验和进行荟萃分析时应考虑这种现象。
    BACKGROUND: Migraine affects 1.1 billion people globally and is the second leading cause of disability worldwide. In clinical trials, treatment efficacy is evaluated by comparing the differential responses in the treatment and placebo arms. Although placebo response in preventive migraine trials has been studied, there is limited research examining temporal trends. This study evaluates the trend of placebo response over thirty years in migraine prevention trials and investigates the association of potential confounders, such as patient, treatment, and study characteristics on placebo response using meta-analysis with regression.
    METHODS: We conducted literature searches from January 1990 to August 2021 in bibliographical databases (PubMed, Cochrane Library, and EMBASE). Studies were selected according to PICOS criteria and included randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trials evaluating preventive migraine treatments in adult patients diagnosed with episodic or chronic migraine, with or without aura. The protocol was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42021271732). Migraine efficacy outcomes included were either continuous (e.g., monthly migraine days) or dichotomous (e.g., ≥ 50% responder rate (yes/no)). We assessed the correlation of the change in outcome from baseline in the placebo arm, with the year of publication. The relationship between placebo response and year of publication was also assessed after accounting to confounders.
    RESULTS: A total of 907 studies were identified, and 83 were found eligible. For the continuous outcomes, the change from baseline in mean placebo response showed an increase over the years (rho = 0.32, p = 0.006). The multivariable regression analysis also showed an overall increase in placebo response over the years. The correlation analysis of dichotomous responses showed no significant linear trend between publication year and mean placebo response (rho = 0.08, p = 0.596). Placebo response also varied by route of administration.
    CONCLUSIONS: Placebo response increased over the past 30 years in migraine preventive trials. This phenomenon should be considered when designing clinical trials and conducting meta-analyses.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    使用韩国健康保险审查和评估(HIRA)数据分析成人青光眼或青光眼可疑患者的视野(VF)测试利用的10年趋势。
    通过大韩民国的HIRA服务记录的2010年至2019年的健康索赔被访问。我们使用青光眼诊断代码H40(青光眼)和H42(在其他地方分类的其他疾病中的青光眼)鉴定了青光眼患者。为了验证青光眼的诊断,还获得了任何抗青光眼处方和眼科手术史的信息.使用在三级医院中进行的程序代码E6690(动态视野检查)和E6691(标准自动视野检查[SAP])分离VF测试数据。使用回归趋势分析确定VF测试利用率的任何变化。
    从2010年到2019年,在三级医院为青光眼或青光眼可疑患者进行的SAP手术总数逐渐从93,459增加到216,433。关于动态视野检查,总人数从六千三百六十四人逐渐减少到三千七百九十二人。每位患者的年平均SAP数量略有增加,从1.168到1.248(β=0.008,R2=0.669,P=0.004)。同时,每位患者的年平均动态周边检查次数显着下降,从1.093到0.940(β=-0.013,R2=0.580,P=0.010)。
    在2010年至2019年期间,韩国每位青光眼或青光眼可疑患者的年平均SAP手术数量增加。同时,每位患者的年平均动态视野检查次数显着减少。
    UNASSIGNED: To analyze 10-year trends in utilization of visual field (VF) tests for adult glaucoma or glaucoma-suspect patients using the Korean Health Insurance Review and Assessment (HIRA) data.
    UNASSIGNED: Health claims for the years 2010 to 2019 as recorded via the Republic of Korea\'s HIRA service were accessed. We identified glaucoma patients using the glaucoma diagnostic codes H40 (glaucoma) and H42 (glaucoma in other diseases classified elsewhere). For verification of the glaucoma diagnosis, information on any anti-glaucoma prescriptions and ocular surgery history also was obtained. VF testing data was isolated using procedural codes E6690 (kinetic perimetry) and E6691 (standard automated perimetry [SAP]) performed in tertiary hospitals. Any changes in VF test utilization were identified using regression trend analysis.
    UNASSIGNED: From 2010 to 2019, the total number of SAP procedures performed in tertiary hospitals for either glaucoma or glaucoma-suspect patients increased gradually from 93,459 to 216,433. With regard to kinetic perimetry examinations, the total number decreased gradually from 6,364 to 3,792. The yearly average SAP number per patient showed a slight increase, from 1.168 to 1.248 (ß = 0.008, R2 = 0.669, P = 0.004). Meanwhile, the yearly average number of kinetic perimeter examinations per patient showed a significant decrease, from 1.093 to 0.940 (ß = -0.013, R2 = 0.580, P = 0.010).
    UNASSIGNED: Between 2010 and 2019, the yearly average number of SAP procedures performed per glaucoma or glaucoma-suspect patient increased in Korea. Meanwhile, the yearly average number of kinetic perimetry examinations per patient significantly decreased.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    We aimed to examine the global prevalences of central obesity according to age, sex, race, place of residence, geographical region, national income level, and the definitions of central obesity. MEDLINE and Embase were searched. Studies with sample size of ≥ 500 and investigated individuals aged ≥ 15 years were included. Metaprop (a Stata command) was adopted to conduct a meta-analysis of prevalence, and the Freeman-Tukey Double Arcsine Transformation was used to stabilize the variances. A random-effects model was used to evaluate the prevalence and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of central obesity. There were 288 studies involving 13,233,675 individuals in this analysis. The overall prevalence of central obesity was 41.5% (95% CI 39.9-43.2%). A higher prevalence was found in older individuals, female subjects, urban residents, Caucasians, and populations of higher income level countries. Regarding regional variations, the highest prevalence was found in Sothern America (55.1%, 95% CI 45.8-64.3%) and Central American (52.9%, 95% CI 32.7-72.7%). Its prevalence was rapidly rising from 1985 to 2014. From 1985-1999 to 2010-2014, younger subjects aged 15-40 years showed a more drastic rise in prevalence (16.3 to 33.9%) than subjects aged > 40 years (43.6 to 57.9%). Male individuals have a more drastic rise (25.3 to 41.6%) than females (38.6 to 49.7%). Major increasing in prevalence of the condition in the past three decades, particularly in certain subgroups. These findings could act as a useful reference to inform public health strategies to minimize the impact of central obesity on population health.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:先前的研究表明,许多系统综述包含显示时间趋势的荟萃分析,比如第一次研究的结果比后来的研究更极端,或者汇总估计的漂移。我们使用2008-2012年发表的所有Cochrane干预报告评估了时间趋势的程度和特征。
    方法:我们在每个报告中选择了最大的荟萃分析,并使用包括Z检验(第一与后续估计)的方法分析了趋势;广义最小二乘;和累积和图。考虑的预测因素包括荟萃分析大小和评论组。
    结果:在包含至少4项研究的1288项荟萃分析中,第一项研究的点估计更极端,方向与738年的汇总估计相同(57%),在165(13%)中具有统计学上的显着差异(第一次与之后)。广义最小二乘法显示717(56%)的趋势;18%的固定效应分析至少有一次违反累积总和限制。对于某些方法,荟萃分析大小与时间模式和随机效应模型的使用相关,但与审查组没有一致的关联.
    结论:所有结果表明,更多的荟萃分析显示时间模式,而不是偶然的预期。因此,假设没有时间趋势的标准荟萃分析模型有时是不合适的。与趋势相关的因素可能是特定于环境的。
    BACKGROUND: Previous studies suggest that many systematic reviews contain meta-analyses that display temporal trends, such as the first study\'s result being more extreme than later studies\' or a drift in the pooled estimate. We assessed the extent and characteristics of temporal trends using all Cochrane intervention reports published 2008-2012.
    METHODS: We selected the largest meta-analysis within each report and analysed trends using methods including a Z-test (first versus subsequent estimates); generalised least squares; and cumulative sum charts. Predictors considered include meta-analysis size and review group.
    RESULTS: Of 1288 meta-analyses containing at least 4 studies, the point estimate from the first study was more extreme and in the same direction as the pooled estimate in 738 (57%), with a statistically significant difference (first versus subsequent) in 165 (13%). Generalised least squares indicated trends in 717 (56%); 18% of fixed effects analyses had at least one violation of cumulative sum limits. For some methods, meta-analysis size was associated with temporal patterns and use of a random effects model, but there was no consistent association with review group.
    CONCLUSIONS: All results suggest that more meta-analyses demonstrate temporal patterns than would be expected by chance. Hence, assuming the standard meta-analysis model without temporal trend is sometimes inappropriate. Factors associated with trends are likely to be context specific.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    Brominated flame retardants (BFRs) which were detected extensively in environmental and biota samples worldwide, have raised significant concerns during past decades for their persistence, bioaccumulation and potential toxicity to ecological environment and human health. In this paper, we have compiled and reviewed existing literature on the contamination status of BFRs in abiotic and biotic environments in China, including polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), hexabromocyclododecane, tetrabromobisphenol A and new BFRs. Temporal trends were also summarized and evaluated. Based on this review, it has been concluded that (1) high concentrations of PBDEs were generally related to the e-waste disposal processing, while the spatial distribution pattern of other BFRs was not necessarily in accordance with this; (2) extremely high concentrations of BFRs in indoor dust emphasized the importance of indoor contamination to human body burdens, while more work need to be done to confirm its contribution; (3) PBDEs in electronics dismantling workers were higher compared to the general population, indicating the occupational exposure should be of particular concern; (4) more data are now becoming available for BFRs in aquatic and terrestrial organisms not previously studied, while studies that consider the occurrence of BFRs in organisms of different trophic levels are still of urgent need for evaluating the fate of BFRs in the food web; and (5) limited data showed a decreasing trend for PBDEs, while more data on time trends of BFR contamination in various matrices and locations are still needed before the impact of regulation of BFRs can be assessed.
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