Temporal trend

时间趋势
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    我国地下水正面临硝酸盐污染的重大威胁。在这里,我们分析了1990年至2020年中国2348个地下水硝酸盐含量的区域调查,检查了分布,趋势,和司机。这项研究揭示了硝酸盐污染的增加,估计硝酸盐含量中位数从1990年的3.84mg/L攀升至2020年的6.94mg/L。地区之间形成了鲜明的对比:北部地区的硝酸盐浓度中位数为8.54mg/L,明显高于南部地区,中位数仅为7.15mg/L。从1990年到2020年,农业活动始终成为地下水硝酸盐浓度变化的主要驱动因素,在开采地下水的同时,生活污染,工业生产也有不同程度的贡献。该分析强调了针对特定区域的政策和干预措施的紧迫性,以解决中国地下水硝酸盐污染的升级。
    China\'s groundwater is facing a significant threat from nitrate pollution. Here we analyzed 2,348 regional surveys of groundwater nitrate levels in China from 1990 to 2020, examining distribution, trends, and drivers. This study uncovers a concerning rise in nitrate pollution, with estimated median nitrate levels climbing from 3.84 mg/L in 1990 to 6.94 mg/L in 2020. A stark contrast is observed between regions: the northern areas have a median nitrate concentration of 8.54 mg/L, significantly higher than the southern regions, where the median is just 7.15 mg/L. From 1990 to 2020, agricultural activity consistently emerges as the dominant driver of changes in groundwater nitrate concentrations, while groundwater exploitation, domestic pollution, and industrial production also contribute to varying degrees. This analysis highlights the urgency for region-specific policies and interventions to address the escalating nitrate pollution in China\'s groundwater.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    近几十年来,中国实施了一系列的空气污染政策。我们旨在评估这些政策对环境细颗粒物(PM2.5)引起的中风负担的健康影响。
    根据2019年全球疾病负担研究的数据,应用Joinpoint回归探索卒中负担的时间趋势。
    中国因环境PM2.5引起的中风的残疾调整寿命年(DALY)的年龄标准化率,在1990-2012年期间急剧增加,随后在2012-2019年期间以-1.98[95%置信区间(CI):-2.26,-1.71]的年度变化百分比(APC)下降。对于缺血性卒中(IS),从1990年到2014年,年龄标准化的DALY比率翻了一番,在2014-2019年期间,APC为-0.83(95%CI:-1.33,-0.33)时下降.从1990年到2003年,脑出血(ICH)的年龄标准化DALY发生率显着增加,随后呈下降趋势。2003-2007年的APC为-1.46(95%CI:-2.74,-0.16),2011-2019年的APC分别为-3.33(95%CI:-3.61,-3.06)。相反,1990-2019年期间,蛛网膜下腔出血(SAH)的年龄标准化DALY发生率普遍下降.
    我们的结果阐明了1990-2019年期间中国环境PM2.5归因中风负担的动态变化,突出了空气质量改善政策的健康影响。
    UNASSIGNED: In recent decades, China has implemented a series of policies to address air pollution. We aimed to assess the health effects of these policies on stroke burden attributable to ambient fine particulate matter (PM 2.5).
    UNASSIGNED: Joinpoint regression was applied to explore the temporal tendency of stroke burden based on data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study.
    UNASSIGNED: The age-standardized rates of disability-adjusted life year (DALY) for stroke attributable to ambient PM 2.5 in China, increased dramatically during 1990-2012, subsequently decreased at an annual percentage change (APC) of -1.98 [95% confidence interval ( CI): -2.26, -1.71] during 2012-2019. For ischemic stroke (IS), the age-standardized DALY rates doubled from 1990 to 2014, and decreased at an APC of -0.83 (95% CI: -1.33, -0.33) during 2014-2019. Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) showed a substantial increase in age-standardized DALY rates from 1990 to 2003, followed by declining trends, with APCs of -1.46 (95% CI: -2.74, -0.16) during 2003-2007 and -3.33 (95% CI: -3.61, -3.06) during 2011-2019, respectively. Conversely, the age-standardized DALY rates for subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) generally declined during 1990-2019.
    UNASSIGNED: Our results clarified the dynamic changes of the ambient PM 2.5-attributable stroke burden in China during 1990-2019, highlighting the health effects of air quality improvement policies.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    我国正面临PAHs污染土壤的严重威胁。更好地了解我国土壤PAH污染现状,为今后制定切实可行的防治措施和政策做出贡献。本研究考察了2000年以来中国土壤多环芳烃(PAHs)污染的时空分布,并研究了影响土壤PAHs水平变化的关键因素。通过ArcGISpro数据的可视化分析了716个地区土壤PAHs浓度水平的调查结果,相关分析和线性回归分析,研究发现,中国土壤PAH污染的增加令人担忧。分析表明,地区差异很大,北方的污染水平高于南方。在20年的时间里,土壤中多环芳烃的中位数水平增加了476.8μg/kg。与其他土地利用类型相比,严重依赖化石燃料和工业活动的建设用地区域显示出多环芳烃(PAHs)的浓度明显更高。该研究确定了与PAH水平上升相关的关键社会经济因素,包括能源消耗(特别是煤炭和石油),工业和生活垃圾生产。煤炭消费是18个省份PAH浓度变化的主导因素,其次是6个省的工业废物。到2030年的未来预测表明,这些因素对土壤PAH水平的持续影响。该研究强调迫切需要全面的土壤管理政策来解决日益严重的PAH污染,深入了解其在中国的动态和影响因素。
    China is facing a serious threat PAHs contaminated soil. To better understand the current state of soil PAH pollution in China and contribute to the development of feasible prevention and control measures and policies in the future. This study examines the spatiotemporal distributions of soil Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) pollution in China since 2000, and investigates the key factors influencing changes in levels of soil PAHs. The results of the survey on soil PAHs concentration levels in 716 areas were analyzed by visualization of ArcGIS pro data, correlation analysis and linear regression analysis, it was found that the increase in soil PAH pollution in China is concerning. The analysis indicates significant regional disparities, with pollution levels in the north being higher than in the south. Over the 20-year period, the median level of PAHs in soil increased by 476.8 μg/kg. Construction land areas that heavily rely on fossil fuels and industrial activities exhibit significantly higher concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) compared to other land use types. The study identifies key socio-economic factors linked to rising PAH levels, including energy consumption (notably coal and oil), industrial and domestic waste production. Coal consumption is highlighted as the leading factor in PAH concentration changes in 18 provinces, followed by industrial waste in 6 provinces. Future projections up to 2030 suggest continued influence of these factors on soil PAH levels. The research emphasizes the urgent necessity for comprehensive soil management policies to address the growing PAH pollution, offering insights into its dynamics and contributing factors in China.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在这篇文章中,我们对年龄≥70岁个体的肌肉骨骼(MSK)疾病的全球模式和残疾年份(YLDs)的时间趋势进行了全面概述和深入分析.年龄≥70岁的个体MSK疾病的YLD数据来自2019年全球疾病负担。计算平均年百分比变化(AAPC)以评估MSK疾病YLDs率的时间趋势。使用贝叶斯年龄-周期-队列模型来预测2040年的YLDs率。2019年,年龄≥70岁的人群中MSK障碍的全球YLD率为每100,000人中4819.81(95%UI:3402.91-6550.77)。女性MSK障碍的YLDs发生率是男性的1.36倍,在高SDI地区最高。从1990年到2019年,全球YLDs率呈小幅下降趋势(AAPC=-0.04%,95%CI:-0.06%至-0.03%),虽然它在高位显著增加,中低端,SDI低地区。烟草和高体重指数是全球的主要危险因素,而在低SDI地区,职业风险成为主要因素。到2040年,全球MSK疾病的YLDs率预计将增加1.78%,36.39%,20.66%,其他MSK疾病增长18.96%和5.32%,类风湿性关节炎,颈部疼痛和骨关节炎。MSK障碍是老年人中重要且持续增长的公共卫生问题。应该为老年人制定量身定制的干预措施,考虑到分布之间的差异,趋势,以及性别和SDI水平方面的危险因素。
    In this article, we provided a comprehensive overview and in-depth analysis of global patterns and temporal trends in years lived with disability (YLDs) for musculoskeletal (MSK) disorders in individuals aged ≥70. Data on YLDs for MSK disorders in individuals aged ≥70 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) was calculated to assess the temporal trends in the YLDs rate of MSK disorders. A Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model was used to predict the YLDs rate up to the year 2040. In 2019, the global rate of YLDs for MSK disorders in individuals aged ≥70 were 4819.81 (95 % UI: 3402.91 - 6550.77) per 100,000 persons. The YLDs rate of MSK disorders in female was 1.36 times higher than that in male, and was highest in high SDI regions. From 1990 to 2019, the global YLDs rate showed a slightly downward trend (AAPC = -0.04 %, 95 % CI: -0.06 % to -0.03 %), while it significantly increased in high, low-middle, low SDI regions. Tobacco and high body mass index were the primary risk factors worldwide, while in low SDI regions, occupational risks emerged as the predominant factors. Up to 2040, the global YLDs rate of MSK disorders are expected to increase by 1.78 %, with 36.39 %, 20.66 %, 18.96 % and 5.32 % growth in other MSK disorders, rheumatoid arthritis, neck pain and osteoarthritis. MSK disorders are a significant and continuously growing public health concern among older adults. Tailored interventions should be developed for older adults, taking into account the variations across distributions, trends, and risk factors in terms of sex and SDI levels.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    尽管新烟碱(NEO)在生命早期的潜在影响受到了相当多的关注,关于母亲和婴儿接触近地天体的数据很少。在这项研究中,在配对的母体血清(MS)中广泛检测到四个母体NEO和一个代谢物,脐带血清(UCS)和母乳(BM)样品,总NEO浓度中位数(ΣNEO)为113、160和69ng/L,分别。观察到N-去甲基-啶虫脒的下降趋势(30%/年),2014年至2022年期间,母乳中的啶虫脒(22%/年)和ΣNEO(15%/年),而噻虫胺(17%/年)和噻虫嗪(30%/年)呈上升趋势。N-去甲基-啶虫脒是所有基质中的主要化合物。然而,2022年,N-去甲基啶虫脒(35%)和噻虫嗪(36%)在母乳中的贡献相似.此外,自2018年以来,噻虫嗪已成为ΣNEO每日摄入量的主要贡献者,2022年的贡献率最高,为71%,这表明NEO的影响继续发展,应更多关注新的NEO。值得注意的是,配对UCS和MS之间的近地天体相关性和比值比配对BM和MS之间的相关性和比值更显著,分别,这表明NEO暴露在很大程度上受到产前时期的影响。
    Although the potential effects of neonicotinoids (NEOs) in early life have received considerable attention, data on the exposure of mothers and infants to NEOs are scarce. In this study, four parent NEOs and one metabolite were widely detected in paired maternal serum (MS), umbilical cord serum (UCS) and breast milk (BM) samples, with median total NEO concentrations (ΣNEOs) of 113, 160 and 69 ng/L, respectively. Decreasing trends were observed for N-desmethyl-acetamiprid (30 %/year), acetamiprid (22 %/year) and ΣNEOs (15 %/year) in breast milk between 2014 and 2022, whereas increasing trends were seen for clothianidin (17 %/year) and thiamethoxam (30 %/year). N-desmethyl-acetamiprid was the predominant compound in all matrices. However, the contributions of N-desmethyl-acetamiprid (35 %) and thiamethoxam (36 %) in breast milk were similar in 2022. Moreover, thiamethoxam has become the predominant contributor to the estimated daily intake of ΣNEOs since 2018, with the highest contribution of 71 % in 2022, suggesting the effects of NEOs continue to evolve and more attention should be paid to the new NEOs. Notably, the correlations and ratios of NEOs between paired UCS and MS were more significant and higher than those between paired BM and MS, respectively, indicating that NEO exposure was largely affected by the prenatal period.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    中国是全世界肝癌发病率最高的国家,肝癌在中国所有癌症中处于前列。然而,目前中国对肝癌的研究主要依赖于外推数据或相对滞后的数据,对次区域和特定人口群体的关注有限。
    这项研究的目的是通过探索不同地理区域内肝癌死亡率的时空趋势和由其导致的寿命损失(YLL)来确定肝癌的地理差异。气候区,和中国的人口群体。
    使用2013年至2020年国家死亡监测系统的数据来计算中国肝癌的年龄标准化死亡率(LASMR)和YLL。按性别分组分析肝癌的空间分布和时间变化趋势,年龄,区域,和气候分类。估计的年度百分比变化被用来描述不同地区的肝癌趋势,并应用偏相关来探讨LASMR与纬度之间的关联。
    在中国,男性LASMR平均值从2013年的28.79降至2020年的26.38/100,000,女性为11.09降至9.83/100,000.死亡率的下降在所有年龄组都是一致的。地理上,广西是中国男性LASMR最高的国家,比率为50.15/10万,而对于女性来说,那是黑龙江,比率为16.64/100,000。在这些地区,广西大部分地区男性的LASMR为32.32至74.98/100,000,而大部分黑龙江地区女性的LASMR为13.72至21.86/100,000。LASMR的趋势因地区而异。对男人和女人来说,从2013年到2020年,贵州LASMR呈增长趋势,估计年度百分比变化范围从10.05%到29.07%,从10.09%到21.71%,分别。男性和女性都观察到LASMR的增加,纬度在40平行以下增加。然而,总的来说,男性LASMR与纬度呈正相关(R=0.225;P<.001),而在女性中,呈负相关(R=0.083;P=.04)。男性中的高LASMR地区与亚热带地区一致,比如Cwa和Cfa.65岁及以上年龄组,南部地区,和Cwa气候区的YLL率最高,分别为每100,000年4850.50、495.50和440.17。然而,这些群体的总体趋势在此期间有所下降。
    尽管中国肝癌总体呈下降趋势,地区和人口之间仍然存在明显的差异。未来防治工作应重点关注高危地区和人群,以进一步降低我国肝癌的负担。
    UNASSIGNED: China has the highest number of liver cancers worldwide, and liver cancer is at the forefront of all cancers in China. However, current research on liver cancer in China primarily relies on extrapolated data or relatively lagging data, with limited focus on subregions and specific population groups.
    UNASSIGNED: The purpose of this study is to identify geographic disparities in liver cancer by exploring the spatial and temporal trends of liver cancer mortality and the years of life lost (YLL) caused by it within distinct geographical regions, climate zones, and population groups in China.
    UNASSIGNED: Data from the National Death Surveillance System between 2013 and 2020 were used to calculate the age-standardized mortality rate of liver cancer (LASMR) and YLL from liver cancer in China. The spatial distribution and temporal trends of liver cancer were analyzed in subgroups by sex, age, region, and climate classification. Estimated annual percentage change was used to describe liver cancer trends in various regions, and partial correlation was applied to explore associations between LASMR and latitude.
    UNASSIGNED: In China, the average LASMR decreased from 28.79 in 2013 to 26.38 per 100,000 in 2020 among men and 11.09 to 9.83 per 100,000 among women. This decline in mortality was consistent across all age groups. Geographically, Guangxi had the highest LASMR for men in China, with a rate of 50.15 per 100,000, while for women, it was Heilongjiang, with a rate of 16.64 per 100,000. Within these regions, the LASMR among men in most parts of Guangxi ranged from 32.32 to 74.98 per 100,000, whereas the LASMR among women in the majority of Heilongjiang ranged from 13.72 to 21.86 per 100,000. The trend of LASMR varied among regions. For both men and women, Guizhou showed an increasing trend in LASMR from 2013 to 2020, with estimated annual percentage changes ranging from 10.05% to 29.07% and from 10.09% to 21.71%, respectively. Both men and women observed an increase in LASMR with increasing latitude below the 40th parallel. However, overall, LASMR in men was positively correlated with latitude (R=0.225; P<.001), while in women, it showed a negative correlation (R=0.083; P=.04). High LASMR areas among men aligned with subtropical zones, like Cwa and Cfa. The age group 65 years and older, the southern region, and the Cwa climate zone had the highest YLL rates at 4850.50, 495.50, and 440.17 per 100,000, respectively. However, the overall trends in these groups showed a decline over the period.
    UNASSIGNED: Despite the declining overall trend of liver cancer in China, there are still marked disparities between regions and populations. Future prevention and control should focus on high-risk regions and populations to further reduce the burden of liver cancer in China.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:分析全球负担,女性乳腺癌和妇科癌症(FeBGC)的趋势和跨国不平等。
    方法:基于人群的研究。
    方法:数据来自2019年全球疾病负担研究。
    方法:诊断为FeBGC的个体。
    方法:年龄标准化死亡率(ASMR),年龄标准化残疾调整寿命年(DALYs)率(ASDRs)及其95%不确定区间(UI)描述了这一负担。年龄标准化率(ASR)的估计年度百分比变化(EAPC)及其置信区间(CI)说明了趋势。使用不平等斜率指数(SII)和集中指数对社会不平等进行了量化。
    方法:主要结果指标是FeBGC的负担及其不平等随时间的趋势。
    结果:2019年,每10万名女性的ASDR如下:乳腺癌:473.83(95%UI:437.30-510.51),宫颈癌:210.64(95%UI:177.67-234.85),卵巢癌:124.68(95%UI:109.13-138.67)和子宫癌:210.64(95%UI:177.67-234.85)。从1990年到2019年的每年趋势表示为ASDR的EAPC,其中:乳腺癌:-0.51(95%CI:-0.57至-0.45);宫颈癌:-0.95(95%CI:-0.99至-0.89);卵巢癌:-0.08(95%CI:-0.12至-0.04);和子宫癌:-0.84(95%CI:-0.93至-0.75)。在社会不平等分析(1990-2019年)中,乳腺的SII从689.26更改为607.08,从-226.66到-239.92宫颈,卵巢癌从222.45到228.83,子宫癌从74.61到103.58。浓度指数值范围为0.2至0.4。
    结论:从1990年到2019年,全球FeBGC的负担呈下降趋势。社会人口指数(SDI)较高的国家或地区承担较高的DALYs乳房负担,卵巢癌和子宫癌,而SDI较低的人承受着较重的子宫颈癌负担。这些不平等随着时间的推移而增加。
    OBJECTIVE: To analyse the global burden, trends and cross-country inequalities of female breast and gynaecologic cancers (FeBGCs).
    METHODS: Population-Based Study.
    METHODS: Data sourced from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.
    METHODS: Individuals diagnosed with FeBGCs.
    METHODS: Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs), age-standardised Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) rates (ASDRs) and their 95% uncertainty interval (UI) described the burden. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) and their confidence interval (CI) of age-standardised rates (ASRs) illustrated trends. Social inequalities were quantified using the Slope Index of Inequality (SII) and Concentration Index.
    METHODS: The main outcome measures were the burden of FeBGCs and the trends in its inequalities over time.
    RESULTS: In 2019, the ASDRs per 100 000 females were as follows: breast cancer: 473.83 (95% UI: 437.30-510.51), cervical cancer: 210.64 (95% UI: 177.67-234.85), ovarian cancer: 124.68 (95% UI: 109.13-138.67) and uterine cancer: 210.64 (95% UI: 177.67-234.85). The trends per year from 1990 to 2019 were expressed as EAPCs of ASDRs and these: for Breast cancer: -0.51 (95% CI: -0.57 to -0.45); Cervical cancer: -0.95 (95% CI: -0.99 to -0.89); Ovarian cancer: -0.08 (95% CI: -0.12 to -0.04); and Uterine cancer: -0.84 (95% CI: -0.93 to -0.75). In the Social Inequalities Analysis (1990-2019) the SII changed from 689.26 to 607.08 for Breast, from -226.66 to -239.92 for cervical, from 222.45 to 228.83 for ovarian and from 74.61 to 103.58 for uterine cancer. The concentration index values ranged from 0.2 to 0.4.
    CONCLUSIONS: The burden of FeBGCs worldwide showed a downward trend from 1990 to 2019. Countries or regions with higher Socio-demographic Index (SDI) bear a higher DALYs burden of breast, ovarian and uterine cancers, while those with lower SDI bear a heavier burden of cervical cancer. These inequalities increased over time.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    本研究旨在研究精神病患者20年全因死亡率的时间趋势,并基于1995年1月1日至2014年12月31日期间从87家精神病医院出院的218,703名芬兰精神障碍成年人,调查危险因素对时间趋势的影响。具有随机医院效应的Poisson模型的年龄周期队列分析估计了个体死亡率和相关因素的时间趋势,医疗保健系统,和社会层面,遵循WHO六个主要精神病诊断的多层次干预框架模型。调整后的年死亡率每年下降2.2%(RR:0.978[95%CI0.976-0.980]),调整所有风险因素后,增幅为2.8%,根据诊断,下降率在2.0%至3.6%之间。个体水平因素占所有患者下降率的54.5%,对人格障碍患者的影响最大,其次是情感障碍患者和精神分裂症患者。已确定的下降趋势和相关因素对于具有特定精神病诊断的个人是可预防和可改变的,可能会导致制定有针对性的服务和干预策略,以进一步降低人群的死亡率。
    This study aims to examine 20-year temporal trends in all-cause mortality among psychiatric patients and investigating impacts of risk factors on the time trends based on 218,703 Finnish adults with mental disorders who were discharged from 87 psychiatric hospitals between 1 Jan 1995 and 31 Dec 2014. The age-period-cohort analysis of Poisson model with random hospital effects estimated temporal trends in death rate and associated factors at individual, healthcare system, and society levels, following the WHO multilevel intervention framework model for six major psychiatric diagnosis. The adjusted annual mortality declined by 2.2 % annually (RR: 0.978 [95 % CI 0.976-0.980]) for all individuals, and by 2.8 % after adjusting for all risk factors, with varied decreasing rate between 2.0 % and 3.6 % by diagnosis. Individual level factors accounted for the declining rate by 54.5 % for all patients, with the highest impact on patients with personality disorders, followed by patients with affective disorders and patients with schizophrenia. Identified declining trends and associated factors which are preventable and modifiable for individuals with specific psychiatric diagnosis may lead to develop targeted service and intervention strategies in bringing down mortality further for the population.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    近年来,新兴的芳基有机磷酸酯(芳基-OPEs)已被用作有机卤素阻燃剂的替代品;然而,它们在城市河口沉积物中的环境发生和相关影响尚未得到充分调查,阻碍监管决策。在这里,基于表层沉积物和沉积物核心分析的实地调查和建模被用来揭示珠江口芳基-OPEs的历史污染和当前环境影响,华南。我们的结果表明,芳基-OPE发射大幅增加,特别是新兴的芳基-OPEs,自2000年代以来,通过泥沙输送到河口。在过去十年中,新兴的芳基-OPEs占年度总投入的83%,平均每年投入155,000克。此外,新兴与传统的芳基-OPE浓度比随着与海岸距离的减小而增加,在高度城市化的河流出口达到顶峰。这些发现表明,河口沉积物中新兴的芳基-OPEs库存可能会增加,其排放量已超过传统的芳基-OPEs。我们基于风险的优先筛选方法表明,一些新兴的芳基-OPEs,特别是双酚A双(磷酸二苯酯),在河口沉积物中比传统的芳基-OPEs具有更高的环境风险。总的来说,我们的研究强调了认识到新兴芳基-OPEs对环境的影响的重要性.
    Emerging aryl organophosphate esters (aryl-OPEs) have been employed as substitutes for organohalogen flame retardants in recent years; however, their environmental occurrence and associated impacts in urban estuarine sediments have not been adequately investigated, impeding regulatory decision-making. Herein, field-based investigations and modeling based on surface sediment and sediment core analysis were employed to uncover the historical pollution and current environmental impacts of aryl-OPEs in the Pearl River Estuary, South China. Our results revealed a substantial increase in aryl-OPE emission, particularly emerging aryl-OPEs, through sediment transport to the estuary since the 2000s. The emerging aryl-OPEs comprised 83% of the total annual input in the past decade, with an average annual input of 155,000 g. Additionally, the emerging-to-traditional aryl-OPE concentration ratios increased with decreasing distance from the shore, peaking in the highly urbanized riverine outlets. These findings indicate that inventories of emerging aryl-OPEs are likely increasing in estuarine sediments and their emissions are surpassing those of traditional aryl-OPEs. Our risk-based priority screening approach indicates that some emerging aryl-OPEs, particularly bisphenol A bis(diphenyl phosphate), can pose a higher environmental risk than traditional aryl-OPEs in estuarine sediments. Overall, our study highlights the importance of recognizing the environmental impacts of emerging aryl-OPEs.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    人口被认为是碳排放的主要非经济驱动因素,导致气候危机,尤其是在中国经历了巨大的人口转变。与衰老相反,低生育率,中国人口转型的最显著特征,在评估碳排放时一直被忽视,由于缺乏长期数据。为了缩小这个差距,提出了一个将1997年至2018年连续投入产出表与Mann-Kendall检验和向量自回归相结合的集成框架,以阐明家庭嵌入碳排放的波动趋势和低生育率的驱动模式,老化,和城市化。我们的主要发现表明,在过去的二十年中,家庭嵌入碳排放量的变化急剧增加。中国家庭嵌入碳排放量的增长在2001年开始加速,落后于人口指标1年。低生育率对家庭嵌入碳排放有积极影响。更重要的是,低生育率的影响比老龄化更为显著和深远。这些建议表明,政策制定者应考虑采取积极的刺激生育率和低碳生活方式的政策。
    A population is regarded as the main non-economic driver of carbon emissions, causing the climatic crisis, especially in China experiencing a dramatic demographic transition. In contrast to aging, low fertility, the most remarkable feature of the Chinese population transition, has always been ignored when evaluating carbon emissions, due to the lack of long-run data. To narrow this gap, an integrated framework combining the continuous input-output tables from 1997 to 2018 with the Mann-Kendall test and vector auto-regression was presented to clarify the fluctuating trend of household embedded carbon emissions and the driving pattern of low fertility, aging, and urbanization. Our main findings showed that changes in household embedded carbon emissions have increased sharply in the last two decades. The growth of Chinese household embedded carbon emissions began to accelerate in 2001, which lagged 1 year behind the demographic indicators. Low fertility has a positive impact on households\' embedded carbon emissions. More importantly, the impact of low fertility is more significant and far-reaching than that of aging. These suggest that aggressive policies for stimulating fertility and low-carbon lifestyles should be considered by policy makers.
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