OBJECTIVE: The development of predictive models for patients treated by emergency medical services (EMS) is on the rise in the emergency field. However, how these models evolve over time has not been studied. The objective of the present work is to compare the characteristics of patients who present mortality in the short, medium and long term, and to derive and validate a predictive model for each mortality time.
METHODS: A prospective multicenter study was conducted, which included adult patients with unselected acute illness who were treated by EMS. The primary outcome was noncumulative mortality from all causes by time windows including 30-day mortality, 31- to 180-day mortality, and 181- to 365-day mortality. Prehospital predictors included demographic variables, standard vital signs, prehospital laboratory tests, and comorbidities.
RESULTS: A total of 4830 patients were enrolled. The noncumulative mortalities at 30, 180, and 365 days were 10.8%, 6.6%, and 3.5%, respectively. The best predictive value was shown for 30-day mortality (AUC = 0.930; 95% CI: 0.919-0.940), followed by 180-day (AUC = 0.852; 95% CI: 0.832-0.871) and 365-day (AUC = 0.806; 95% CI: 0.778-0.833) mortality.
CONCLUSIONS: Rapid characterization of patients at risk of short-, medium-, or long-term mortality could help EMS to improve the treatment of patients suffering from acute illnesses.

OBJECTIVE: This report aimed to describe mortality at 18 months in older survivors of the first wave of COVID-19.
METHODS: Observational cohort study.
METHODS: Patients aged ≥65 years hospitalized for COVID-19 in the acute geriatric wards of 2 centers.
METHODS: Characteristics of deceased and survivors were compared by Fisher exact, Mann-Whitney U, or 2-tailed t tests. Survival rates were analysed by Cox proportional hazards regression models.
RESULTS: Of a total of 323 patients admitted during the first wave, 196 survived the acute phase, with 34 patients who died in the 18 months after hospital discharge (17.3%). Higher mortality was observed in patients living in nursing homes (P = .033) and in those who were hospitalized after discharge during the follow-up period (97.1% vs 72.8%, P = .001). There was no difference in survival curves according to age, sex, presence of dyspnea, and dementia. Living in a nursing home significantly increased the mortality rates in the multivariate model adjusted for age and sex (hazard ratio 3.07, 95% CI 1.47-6.40; P = .007).
CONCLUSIONS: No excess mortality was observed during 18 months in older survivors of COVID-19. Living in a nursing home was associated with decreased survival rates.

Hypoalbuminemia associates with poor acute ischemic stroke (AIS) outcomes. We hypothesised a non-linear relationship and aimed to systematically assess this association using prospective stroke data from the Norfolk and Norwich Stroke and TIA Register. Consecutive AIS patients aged ≥40 years admitted December 2003-December 2016 were included. Outcomes: In-hospital mortality, poor discharge, functional outcome (modified Rankin score 3-6), prolonged length of stay (PLoS) > 4 days, and long-term mortality. Restricted cubic spline regressions investigated the albumin-outcome relationship. We updated a systematic review (PubMed, Scopus, and Embase databases, January 2020-June 2023) and undertook a meta-analysis. A total of 9979 patients were included; mean age (standard deviation) = 78.3 (11.2) years; mean serum albumin 36.69 g/L (5.38). Compared to the cohort median, albumin < 37 g/L associated with up to two-fold higher long-term mortality (HRmax; 95% CI = 2.01; 1.61-2.49) and in-hospital mortality (RRmax; 95% CI = 1.48; 1.21-1.80). Albumin > 44 g/L associated with up to 12% higher long-term mortality (HRmax1.12; 1.06-1.19). Nine studies met our inclusion criteria totalling 23,597 patients. Low albumin associated with increased risk of long-term mortality (two studies; relative risk 1.57 (95% CI 1.11-2.22; I2 = 81.28)), as did low-normal albumin (RR 1.10 (95% CI 1.01-1.20; I2 = 0.00)). Strong evidence indicates increased long-term mortality in AIS patients with low or low-normal albumin on admission.

BACKGROUND: We followed prolonged mechanically ventilated (PMV) patients for weaning attempts and explored factors associated with successful weaning and long-term survival.
METHODS: This historical cohort study included all adult PMV patients admitted to a single rehabilitation hospital during 2015-2018 and followed for survival according to weaning success up to 3 years or the end of 2021.
RESULTS: The study included 223 PMV patients. Of them, 124 (55.6 %) underwent weaning attempts, with 69 (55.6 %) successfully weaned, 55 (44.4 %) unsuccessfully weaned, and 99 patients with no weaning attempts. The mean age was 67 ± 20 years, with 39 % female patients. Age, sex distributions and albumin levels at admission were not significantly different among the groups. The successful weaning group had a 6 % higher proportion of conscious patients than the failed weaning group (55 % vs. 49 %, respectively, p = 0.45). Patients successfully weaned were less frequently treated with antibiotics for 5 days or more than those unsuccessfully weaned (74 % vs 80 %, respectively, p = 0.07). They also had a lower proportion of time from intubation to tracheostomy greater than 14 days (45 % vs 66 %, p = 0.02). The age, sex, antibiotic treatment, time to tracheostomy exceeding 14 days and time from admission to first weaning attempt adjusted one-year mortality risk of successful vs. failed weaning was somewhat lower, HR = 0.75, 95%CI: 0.33-1.60, p = 0.45, with the same trend by the end of 3 years, HR = 0.77, 95%CI: 0.42-1.39, p = 0.38.
CONCLUSIONS: Successful weaning from PMV may be associated with better survival and allows chronically ventilated patients to become independent on a ventilator. A larger study is needed to further validate our findings.

OBJECTIVE: Previous studies in percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) patients showed a higher 3-year adverse event risk, including all-cause mortality, in those with concomitant peripheral arterial disease (PADs). Ten-year data of mortality and causes of death are scarce. This analysis assessed PCI patients, treated with contemporary drug-eluting stents, the impact of concomitant PADs on very long-term mortality, and causes of death.
METHODS: We assessed PCI all-comers from our center who participated in the TWENTE and DUTCH PEERS trials (clinicaltrials.gov:NCT01066650, NCT01331707), comparing patients with versus without PADs. Life status was checked in the Dutch Personal Records Database; causes of death were obtained from medical records.
RESULTS: Of 2705 study patients, 668 (24.7%) died during follow-up: 88/212 (41.5%) patients with PADs and 580/2493 (23.1%) without PADs. In PADs patients, the 10-year rate of all-cause mortality was about twice as high as in patients without PADs (41.5% vs.23.1%, HR: 2.05, 95%-CI: 1.64-2.57, p<0.001). For both groups, the rates of patients dying from various causes of death were: cardiac (14.1% vs.6.8%), vascular (2.8% vs. 1.1%), non-cardiovascular (17.4% vs. 9.8%), and unclear causes (7.1% vs. 5.3%), without a statistically significant between-group difference. When multivariate analysis was adjusted for between-group differences in cardiovascular risk profile, PADs remained predictor of all-cause mortality (adjusted HR: 1.38, 95%-CI: 1.08-1.75, p=0.01).
CONCLUSIONS: The 10-year all-cause mortality rate in PCI patients with concomitant PADs was almost twice as high as in those without PADs. Age and other traditional cardiovascular risk factors were higher in patients with PADs, but after correction for these confounders PADs still accounted for almost 40% increase in mortality.

UNASSIGNED: In general, the identification of cholesterol-depleted lipid particles can be inferred from non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL-C) concentration to apolipoprotein B (apoB) concentration ratio, which serves as a reliable indicator for assessing the risk of cardiovascular disease. However, the ability of non-HDL-C/apoB ratio to predict the risk of long-term mortality among the general population remains uncertain. The aim of this study is to explore the association of non-HDL-C/apoB ratio with long-term all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in adults of the United States.
UNASSIGNED: This retrospective cohort study was a further analysis of existing information from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). In the ultimate analysis, 12,697 participants from 2005 to 2014 were included. Kaplan-Meier (K-M) curves and the log-rank test were applied to visualize survival differences between groups. Multivariate Cox regression and restricted cubic spline (RCS) models were applied to evaluate the association of non-HDL-C/apoB ratio with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Subgroup analysis was conducted for the variables of age, sex, presence of coronary artery disease, diabetes and hypertriglyceridemia and usage of lipid-lowering drugs.
UNASSIGNED: The average age of the cohort was 46.8 ± 18.6 years, with 6215 (48.9%) participants being male. During a median follow-up lasting 68.0 months, 891 (7.0%) deaths were documented and 156 (1.2%) patients died of cardiovascular disease. Individuals who experienced all-cause and cardiovascular deaths had a lower non-HDL-C/apoB ratio compared with those without events (1.45 ± 0.16 vs. 1.50 ± 0.17 and 1.43 ± 0.17 vs. 1.50 ± 0.17, both P values < 0.001). The results of adjusted Cox regression models revealed that non-HDL-C/apoB ratio exhibited independent significance as a risk factor for both long-term all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.51, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.33-0.80] and cardiovascular mortality (HR = 0.33, 95% CI: 0.12-0.90). Additionally, a significant sex interaction was discovered (P for interaction <0.05), indicating a robust association between non-HDL-C/apoB ratio and long-term mortality among females. The RCS curve showed that non-HDL-C/apoB ratio had a negative linear association with long-term all-cause and cardiovascular mortality (P for non-linearity was 0.098 and 0.314).
UNASSIGNED: The non-HDL-C/apoB ratio may serve as a potential biomarker for predicting long-term mortality among the general population, independent of traditional risk factors.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to analyze the life expectancy and cause of death in osteoarthritis (OA) patients who underwent total knee arthroplasty (TKA) and to identify risk factors that affect long-term mortality rate after TKA.
METHODS: Among 601 patients, who underwent primary TKA due to OA by a single surgeon from July 2005 to December 2011, we identified patients who died after the operation using data obtained from the National Statistical Office of Korea. We calculated 5-, 10-, and 15-year survival rates of the patients and age-specific standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) compared to general population of South Korea according to the causes of death. We also identified risk factors for death.
RESULTS: The 5-year, 10-year, and 15-year survival rates were 94%, 84%, and 75%, respectively. The overall age-specific SMR of the TKA cohort was lower than that of the general population (0.69; P < 0.001). Cause-specific SMRs for circulatory diseases, neoplasms, and digestive diseases after TKA were significantly lower than those of the general population (0.65, 0.58, and 0.16, respectively; all P < 0.05). Male gender, older age, lower body mass index (BMI), anemia, and higher Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) were significant factors associated with higher mortality after TKA.
CONCLUSIONS: TKA is a worthwhile surgery that can improve life expectancy, especially from diseases of the circulatory system, neoplasms, and digestive system, in patients with OA compared to the general population. However, careful follow-up is needed for patients with male gender, older age, lower BMI, anemia, and higher CCI, as these factors may increase long-term mortality risk after TKA.
METHODS: III.

Metabolic Syndrome (MetS), a multifactorial condition that increases the risk of cardio-vascular events, is frequent in Heart-transplant (HTx) candidates and worsens with immunosuppressive therapy. The aim of the study was to analyze the impact of MetS on long-term outcome of HTx patients. Since 2007, 349 HTx patients were enrolled. MetS was diagnosed if patients met revised NCEP-ATP III criteria before HTx, at 1, 5 and 10 years of follow-up. MetS was present in 35% of patients pre-HTx and 47% at 1 year follow-up. Five-year survival in patients with both pre-HTx (65% vs. 78%, p < 0.01) and 1 year follow-up MetS (78% vs 89%, p < 0.01) was worst. At the univariate analysis, risk factors for mortality were pre-HTx MetS (HR 1.86, p < 0.01), hypertension (HR 2.46, p < 0.01), hypertriglyceridemia (HR 1.50, p=0.03), chronic renal failure (HR 2.95, p < 0.01), MetS and diabetes at 1 year follow-up (HR 2.00, p < 0.01; HR 2.02, p < 0.01, respectively). MetS at 1 year follow-up determined a higher risk to develop Coronary allograft vasculopathy at 5 and 10 year follow-up (25% vs 14% and 44% vs 25%, p < 0.01). MetS is an important risk factor for both mortality and morbidity post-HTx, suggesting the need for a strict monitoring of metabolic disorders with a careful nutritional follow-up in HTx patients.

UNASSIGNED: Patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) are generally regarded as having increased risk of arrhythmia, stroke, heart failure, and sudden cardiac death, but reported mortality rates vary considerably and originate from selected populations.
UNASSIGNED: We aimed to investigate the long-term mortality rate in a nationwide cohort of patients with HCM compared to a matched cohort from the general Danish population.
UNASSIGNED: All patients with a first-time HCM diagnosis in Denmark between January 1, 2007 and December 31, 2018 were identified through nationwide registries. In the main analysis, two visits in an outpatient clinic were required in order to increase specificity. Patients were matched to controls from the background population in a 1:3 ratio based on age, sex, selected comorbidities and date of HCM. Mortalities were compared using Kaplan Meier estimator and multivariable Cox regression models.
UNASSIGNED: We identified 3126 patients with a first-time diagnosis of HCM. 1197 patients had at least two visits in the outpatient clinic (43 % female, median age 63.1 [25th-75th percentile 52.1-72.1] years). All-cause mortality was significantly higher in HCM patients than in matched controls: 10-year probabilities of death were 36.4 % (95 % CI 30.2-43.5 %) for HCM patients and 19.4 % (95 % CI 16.8-22.5 %) for controls. After adjusting for additional comorbidities and medications, a diagnosis with HCM was associated with an increased mortality rate (HR 1.48 (95 % CI 1.18-1.84, p = 0.001)).
UNASSIGNED: Compared to matched controls from the background population, presence of HCM was associated with a significant increase in mortality rate.

Background: The Naples prognostic score (NPS), which reflects the inflammatory and nutritional status of patients, is often used to determine prognosis in cancer patients. The aim of this study was to determine the long-term prognostic value of the NPS in acute pulmonary embolism (APE) patients. Methods: Two hundred thirty-nine patients diagnosed with APE were divided into two groups according to their NPS, and long-term mortality was compared. Results: The long-term mortality was observed in 38 patients out of 293 patients in the mean follow-up of 24 months. Multivariate analysis showed that NPS as a categorical parameter and NPS as a numeric parameter were independent predictors of long-term mortality. Conclusion: This study highlights that NPS may have the potential to predict long-term mortality in APE patients.
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