Historical epidemiology

历史流行病学
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目标:有些人无法从急性病毒感染中完全康复,并经历持续数月甚至数年的症状或不完全康复。这并不是SARS-CoV-2病毒所独有的,历史表明病毒后疾病,如COVID-19后疾病,也被称为LongCovid,不是新的。特别是,在由呼吸道病毒引起的大流行期间和之后,增加了专业和公众的关注,尤其是因为受影响的人数众多。方法:鉴于主题的当前相关性,本文旨在对过去大流行期间病毒后症状的相关文献进行叙述性回顾和总结,并用1890年,1918年-1920年及以后的大流行中的瑞士例子进行补充和说明.结果:在过去的150年中,在呼吸道感染引发的过去大流行期间和之后,病毒后疾病是越来越强调的健康主题。结论:在下一次大流行中,病毒后状况将再次发挥作用并不奇怪,大流行计划应该反映这一点。
    Objectives: Some people do not fully recover from an acute viral infection and experience persistent symptoms or incomplete recovery for months or even years. This is not unique to the SARS-CoV-2 virus and history shows that post-viral conditions like post COVID-19 condition, also referred to as Long Covid, are not new. In particular, during and after pandemics caused by respiratory viruses in which large parts of the population were infected or exposed, professional and public attention was increased, not least because of the large number of people affected. Methods: Given the current relevance of the topic, this article aims to narratively review and summarize the literature on post-viral symptoms during past pandemics and to supplement and illustrate it with Swiss examples from the pandemics of 1890, 1918-1920 and later. Results: Post-viral diseases were an increasingly emphasised health topic during and after past pandemics triggered by respiratory infections over the last 150 years. Conclusion: In the next pandemic, it should not be surprising that post-viral conditions will again play a role, and pandemic plans should reflect this.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在阿拉斯加,1918-20年的流感大流行是毁灭性的,死亡率高达90%的人口,而在瑞典北部和挪威的其他北极地区,死亡率相当低。我们调查了格陵兰在1918-21年期间超额死亡率的时间和年龄模式,并将其与其他流行病和1889-92年的大流行进行了比较。我们访问了格陵兰国家档案馆,并按年龄转录了1880年至1921年的所有死亡病例,地理,和死因。我们估计了每月的超额死亡率,并研究了大流行的时空模式,并将其与40年期间的其他死亡率危机进行了比较。1918-21年的流感大流行于1919年夏天抵达格陵兰,由于冬季的船舶交通中断而推迟了一年。我们发现,格陵兰人口中有5.2%死于大流行,各县之间存在很大差异(范围,0.1%至11%)。我们没有看到年轻人死亡率高的典型大流行年龄模式,可能是由于该年龄组或偏远的基线死亡率高。然而,尽管死亡率很高,相对于其他死亡危机,死亡率影响并不突出,或在阿拉斯加人口中报告的类似破坏。
    In Alaska, the 1918-20 influenza pandemic was devastating, with mortality rates up to 90% of the population, while in other arctic regions in northern Sweden and Norway mortality was considerably lower. We investigated the timing and age-patterns in excess mortality in Greenland during the period 1918-21 and compare these to other epidemics and the 1889-92 pandemic. We accessed the Greenlandic National Archives and transcribed all deaths from 1880 to 1921 by age, geography, and cause of death. We estimated monthly excess mortality and studied the spatial-temporal patterns of the pandemics and compared them to other mortality crises in the 40-year period. The 1918-21 influenza pandemic arrived in Greenland in the summer of 1919, one year delayed due to ship traffic interruptions during the winter months. We found that 5.2% of the Greenland population died of the pandemic with substantial variability between counties (range, 0.1% to 11%). We did not see the typical pandemic age-pattern of high young-adult mortality, possibly due to high baseline mortality in this age-group or remoteness. However, despite substantial mortality, the mortality impact was not standing out relative to other mortality crises, or of similar devastation reported in Alaskan populations.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:我们描述了二十世纪初荷兰地区之间两种常见的应报告疾病白喉和猩红热的发生率如何变化,并确定这种变化背后的潜在因素。
    方法:1905-1925年的数字化每周强制性通知数据,汇总为27个“空间单位”,由省份和人口密度类别的独特组合定义(高:4500以上;中:1250-4500;低:少于1250居民km-2)。拟合了广义加性回归模型来估计通知率和人口密度之间的关联,婴儿死亡率和家庭收入,同时调整每个空间单位的时间趋势。
    结果:从1905-1925年开始,白喉和猩红热的年人均通报率趋于上升,直到1918/1919年左右达到峰值。与低密度城市相比,高,中,调整后的白喉通知率更高(每100000例71.6例,95%置信区间(CI):52.7-90.5;39.0/100k,95%CI:分别为24.7-53.3)。猩红热与人口密度相似(每100000例35.7例,95%CI:9.4-62.0;21.4/100k,95%CI:1.5-41.3)。
    结论:在20世纪早期荷兰,这两种疾病的通报率存在相当大的空间差异,这可以部分解释为捕捉生活条件和社会经济环境变化的因素。这些发现有助于理解当代呼吸道感染的传播。
    BACKGROUND: We describe how rates of two frequently occurring notifiable diseases-diphtheria and scarlet fever-varied between regions of The Netherlands in the early twentieth century, and identify potential factors underlying this variation.
    METHODS: Digitized weekly mandatory notification data for 1905-1925, municipality level, were aggregated into 27 \'spatial units\' defined by unique combinations of province and population density category (high: more than 4500; mid : 1250-4500; low: less than 1250 inhabitants km-2). Generalized additive regression models were fitted to estimate the associations between notification rates and population density, infant mortality rate and household income, while adjusting for temporal trends per spatial unit.
    RESULTS: Annual per capita notification rates for both diphtheria and scarlet fever tended to rise from the beginning of the period 1905-1925 until peaking around 1918/1919. Adjusted diphtheria notification rates were higher for high- and mid- compared with low-density municipalities (by 71.6 cases per 100 000, 95% confidence interval (CI) : 52.7-90.5; 39.0/100 k, 95% CI : 24.7-53.3, respectively). Scarlet fever showed similar associations with population density (35.7 cases per 100 000, 95% CI : 9.4-62.0; 21.4/100 k, 95% CI: 1.5-41.3).
    CONCLUSIONS: There was considerable spatial variation in notification rates for both diseases in early twentieth century Netherlands, which could partly be explained by factors capturing variation in living conditions and socio-economic circumstances. These findings aid understanding of contemporary respiratory infection transmission.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    未分化的发热性疾病(例如,昆士兰州北部的Mossman热)最终部分归因于螨虫传播的立克次体感染,称为斑疹伤寒或虫虫热。在第二次世界大战期间,斑疹伤寒成为巴布亚新几内亚军事行动的主要医疗威胁,在抗生素使用前时代,杀死的澳大利亚士兵比疟疾还多。进一步的调查显示,斑疹伤寒是昆士兰州北部农村工人的职业病,尤其是凯恩斯和因尼斯法尔附近。在昆士兰州的军事演习中,仍然会偶尔发生斑疹伤寒的小流行病,但是由于斑疹伤寒不是一种可报告的疾病,它在平民社区中的存在很大程度上是未知的。在昆士兰州北部暴露后,对发烧和皮疹疾病的患者增加了血清学检测的使用,这可能表明斑疹伤寒是一种现代感染,一旦被发现,仍然可以用抗生素治疗。
    Undifferentiated febrile diseases (e.g., Mossman fever) from northern Queensland were eventually partially attributed to mite-transmitted rickettsial infections known as scrub typhus or tsutsugamushi fever. Scrub typhus became a major medical threat to military operations in Papua New Guinea during the Second World War and killed more Australian soldiers than malaria in the pre-antibiotic era. Further investigations showed scrub typhus to be an occupational disease of rural workers in north Queensland especially around Cairns and Innisfail. Occasional small epidemics of scrub typhus still occur during military exercises in Queensland, but as scrub typhus is not a reportable disease, its presence in the civilian community is largely unknown. Increased use of serological testing in patients with fever and rash illnesses after exposure in northern Queensland is likely to show that scrub typhus is a modern infection that remains treatable with antibiotics once it is identified.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    为HIV-1M大流行而制定的完美风暴模型也被用来解释HIV-2的出现,HIV-2是第二种人类免疫缺陷病毒获得性免疫缺陷综合症(HIV-AIDS)在几内亚比绍流行,西非。这个模型的使用创造了流行病学的概括,生态过度简化和历史误解作为其假设——人口爆炸性增长的城市中心,高水平的商业性行为和性传播疾病的激增,全国的机械运输网络,大规模的移动运动-在历史记录中没有。这个模型无法解释HIV-2的流行是如何发生的。这是第一项对社会历史背景发展进行详尽审查并使其与环境,病毒学和流行病学数据。跨学科对话表明,HIV-2流行病的出现伴随着当地的社会政治变革。战争对生态关系的间接影响,流动性和社交能力在农村地区非常严重,是HIV-2流行的关键。这种环境有病毒的天然宿主,人口数量,在促进病毒适应和扩增所需的规模上,流动性趋势和技术的使用。本分析提出了对人畜共患溢出和疾病出现过程的新思考。
    The perfect storm model that was elaborated for the HIV-1M pandemic has also been used to explain the emergence of HIV-2, a second human immunodeficiency virus-acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV-AIDS) that became an epidemic in Guinea-Bissau, West Africa. The use of this model creates epidemiological generalizations, ecological oversimplifications and historical misunderstandings as its assumptions-an urban center with explosive population growth, a high level of commercial sex and a surge in STDs, a network of mechanical transport and country-wide, en masse mobile campaigns-are absent from the historical record. This model fails to explain how the HIV-2 epidemic actually came about. This is the first study to conduct an exhaustive examination of sociohistorical contextual developments and align them with environmental, virological and epidemiological data. The interdisciplinary dialogue indicates that the emergence of the HIV-2 epidemic piggybacked on local sociopolitical transformations. The war\'s indirect effects on ecological relations, mobility and sociability were acute in rural areas and are a key to the HIV-2 epidemic. This setting had the natural host of the virus, the population numbers, the mobility trends and the use of technology on a scale needed to foster viral adaptation and amplification. The present analysis suggests new reflections on the processes of zoonotic spillovers and disease emergence.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:自1990年代以来,中国的总体自杀率大幅下降,但近年来,在特定群体中观察到下降速度放缓,甚至出现逆转趋势。本研究旨在通过使用年龄周期队列(APC)分析来调查中国大陆的最新自杀风险。
    方法:这项基于人群的多年横断面研究使用中国卫生统计年鉴(2005-2020)的数据纳入了10至84岁的中国人。通过APC分析和内在估计器(IE)技术分析数据。
    结果:数据符合构建的APC模型。队列效应表明,1920-1944年出生的人中自杀的风险很高,而1945-1979年队列中自杀的风险急剧下降。最低的风险发生在1980-1994队列中,在Z世代(1995-2009出生年)急剧增加之前。期间效应自2004年以来呈下降趋势。年龄效应表明自杀风险随着时间的推移而增加,除了从35岁到49岁逐渐下降。青少年自杀风险大大增加,老年人自杀风险最高。
    结论:汇总的人口水平数据和APC模型的不可识别性可能导致本研究结果准确性的偏差。
    结论:这项研究成功地更新了中国人的自杀风险,使用最新的可用数据(2004-2019年),从时期和队列角度。研究结果增强了对自杀流行病学的理解,并为自杀预防和管理提供了宏观层面的支持政策和策略的证据。需要立即采取行动,将重点放在针对Z一代的国家自杀预防战略上,青少年和老年人需要政府官员的共同努力,公共/社区卫生规划师和卫生保健机构。
    The overall suicide rate in China has dropped substantially since the 1990s, but a slowdown in the decrease and even a reversing trend was observed in specific groups in recent years. This study aims to investigate the latest suicide risk in mainland China by using the age-period-cohort (APC) analysis.
    This population-based multiyear cross-sectional study included Chinese ages 10 to 84 years using data from the China Health Statistical Yearbook (2005-2020). Data were analyzed by the APC analysis and intrinsic estimator (IE) technique.
    The data satisfactorily fit the constructed APC models. The cohort effect indicated a high risk of suicide among people birth in 1920-1944 and a sharp decline in the 1945-1979 cohort. The lowest risk occurred in the 1980-1994 cohort before a sharp increase in generation Z (birth years in 1995-2009). The period effect showed a declining trend since 2004. The age effect indicated that the suicide risk increased over time, except for a gradual decline from age 35 to 49. The suicide risk increased greatly in adolescents and reached the highest among the elderly.
    The aggregated population-level data and the non-identifiability of the APC model could result in bias in the accuracy of results in this study.
    This study successfully updated the Chinese suicide risk from the age, period and cohort perspective using the latest available data (2004-2019). The findings enhance the understanding of suicide epidemiology and provide evidence supporting policies and strategies at the macro-level for suicide prevention and management. Immediate action is needed to focus on a national suicide prevention strategy that targets generation Z, adolescents and the elderly which will require a collaborative effort by government officials, public/community health planners and health care agencies.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    进行历史死亡登记主要是为了评估鼠疫的存在。米兰的LiberMortuorum是欧洲最早的具有许多社会人口统计学细节的登记册之一。在这项工作中,我们考虑1480对死亡事件进行空间和时间分析,以找到关于事件的分布和事件随时间的趋势的可能解释。空间分析涉及Moran\'sI,LISA,和热图;时间分析应用了Durbin-Watson测试。所有分析分别对所有受试者进行(1813),儿童(765),成人(1046)考虑了Contrade(地区)进行空间分析。莫兰的I和德宾·沃森测试对所有受试者和儿童的分析都很重要,LISA对这些组显示了相同的结果。随着时间的推移,儿童可能会显著影响死亡的分布和趋势。至少一半的孩子是0岁,第一个童年时期的生存与家庭密切相关,所以它可以代表一个地区的条件。
    Historical death registration was conducted primarily to assess the presence of plague. The Liber Mortuorum of Milan was one of Europe\'s first registers with many socio-demographical details. In this work, we consider 1480 to make spatial and temporal analyses of the event of death to find possible explanations about the events\' distribution and the events\' trend over time. The spatial analyses involved Moran\'s I, the LISA, and the heatmaps; the temporal analysis applied the Durbin-Watson test. All the analyses were conducted separately on all subjects (1813), children (765), and adults (1046). Contrade (districts) were considered for spatial analysis. Moran\'s I and the Durbin Watson test were significant on all subjects and children\'s analyses, and the LISA showed the same results for those groups. Children may significantly impact the distribution of death and the trend over time. At least half of the children were 0 years old, and survival in the very first childhood period was closely linked to the family, so that it could be a proxy of the conditions of an area.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    瘟疫等大流行疾病产生了大量提供时空范围信息的文献,传输,或对策。然而,从运行文本中手动提取这些信息是一个繁琐的过程,这些信息中的大部分仍然锁定在叙事格式中。自然语言处理(NLP)是一种用于自动提取流行病学数据的有前途的工具,并且可以促进数据集的建立。在本文中,我们探索了NLP在创建鼠疫爆发数据集方面的实用性。我们通过对Sticker于1908年出版的德国鼠疫论文的手动注释,制作了黄金标准的地名清单。我们调查了五个预先训练的NLP库的性能(谷歌,斯坦福CoreNLP,spaCy,germaNER和Geoparser)用于与黄金标准相比自动提取位置数据。在所有测试的算法中,spaCy表现最好(灵敏度0.92,F1评分0.83),紧随其后的是StanfordCoreNLP(敏感性0.81,F1评分0.87)。GoogleNLP的表现略低(F1得分0.72,灵敏度0.78)。Geoparser和germaNER的敏感性较差(0.41和0.61)。然后,我们评估了谷歌地理编码等自动化地理编码服务的好坏,Geonames和Geoparser正确定位了这些爆发。所有地理编码服务表现不佳-特别是对于历史区域-并且仅在60.4%中返回了正确的GIS信息,所有病例的52.7%和33.8%。最后,我们将新的数字化鼠疫数据集与Biraben的鼠疫论文的重新数字化版本进行了比较,并提供了第二次大流行鼠疫爆发的时空范围的更新。我们得出结论,NLP工具有其局限性,但它们可能有助于加速数据收集和全球鼠疫爆发数据库的生成。
    Pandemic diseases such as plague have produced a vast amount of literature providing information about the spatiotemporal extent, transmission, or countermeasures. However, the manual extraction of such information from running text is a tedious process, and much of this information remains locked into a narrative format. Natural Language processing (NLP) is a promising tool for the automated extraction of epidemiological data, and can facilitate the establishment of datasets. In this paper, we explore the utility of NLP to assist in the creation of a plague outbreak dataset. We produced a gold standard list of toponyms by manual annotation of a German plague treatise published by Sticker in 1908. We investigated the performance of five pre-trained NLP libraries (Google, Stanford CoreNLP, spaCy, germaNER and Geoparser) for the automated extraction of location data compared to the gold standard. Of all tested algorithms, spaCy performed best (sensitivity 0.92, F1 score 0.83), followed closely by Stanford CoreNLP (sensitivity 0.81, F1 score 0.87). Google NLP had a slightly lower performance (F1 score 0.72, sensitivity 0.78). Geoparser and germaNER had a poor sensitivity (0.41 and 0.61). We then evaluated how well automated geocoding services such as Google geocoding, Geonames and Geoparser located these outbreaks correctly. All geocoding services performed poorly - particularly for historical regions - and returned the correct GIS information only in 60.4%, 52.7% and 33.8% of all cases. Finally, we compared our newly digitized plague dataset to a re-digitized version of the plague treatise by Biraben and provide an update of the spatio-temporal extent of the second pandemic plague outbreaks. We conclude that NLP tools have their limitations, but they are potentially useful to accelerate the collection of data and the generation of a global plague outbreak database.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    1942年2月,新加坡在供水崩溃后向日本投降。根据殖民地医疗当局的建议,随后,开始了一项紧急伤寒免疫运动,使用当地制造的非暂时性材料疫苗;在3个月内,>60000已经免疫。与战前统计数据的比较表明,尽管其他肠道感染有所增加,但预防了投降后的伤寒流行。供应链中断的公共卫生危机可能使当地生产的疫苗在未来变得越来越重要。
    Singapore surrendered to the Japanese invasion in February 1942 after its water supply collapsed. At the suggestion of the colonial medical authorities, an emergency typhoid immunisation campaign was then begun using locally manufactured vaccine from extemporary materials; within 3 months, >600 000 had been immunised. Comparison with prewar statistics suggests that a postsurrender typhoid fever epidemic was prevented despite an increase in other enteric infections. Public health crises with disrupted supply chains may make locally manufactured vaccines of increasing importance in the future.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
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