Abstract：
The overall suicide rate in China has dropped substantially since the 1990s, but a slowdown in the decrease and even a reversing trend was observed in specific groups in recent years. This study aims to investigate the latest suicide risk in mainland China by using the age-period-cohort (APC) analysis.
This population-based multiyear cross-sectional study included Chinese ages 10 to 84 years using data from the China Health Statistical Yearbook (2005-2020). Data were analyzed by the APC analysis and intrinsic estimator (IE) technique.
The data satisfactorily fit the constructed APC models. The cohort effect indicated a high risk of suicide among people birth in 1920-1944 and a sharp decline in the 1945-1979 cohort. The lowest risk occurred in the 1980-1994 cohort before a sharp increase in generation Z (birth years in 1995-2009). The period effect showed a declining trend since 2004. The age effect indicated that the suicide risk increased over time, except for a gradual decline from age 35 to 49. The suicide risk increased greatly in adolescents and reached the highest among the elderly.
The aggregated population-level data and the non-identifiability of the APC model could result in bias in the accuracy of results in this study.
This study successfully updated the Chinese suicide risk from the age, period and cohort perspective using the latest available data (2004-2019). The findings enhance the understanding of suicide epidemiology and provide evidence supporting policies and strategies at the macro-level for suicide prevention and management. Immediate action is needed to focus on a national suicide prevention strategy that targets generation Z, adolescents and the elderly which will require a collaborative effort by government officials, public/community health planners and health care agencies.
This population-based multiyear cross-sectional study included Chinese ages 10 to 84 years using data from the China Health Statistical Yearbook (2005-2020). Data were analyzed by the APC analysis and intrinsic estimator (IE) technique.
The data satisfactorily fit the constructed APC models. The cohort effect indicated a high risk of suicide among people birth in 1920-1944 and a sharp decline in the 1945-1979 cohort. The lowest risk occurred in the 1980-1994 cohort before a sharp increase in generation Z (birth years in 1995-2009). The period effect showed a declining trend since 2004. The age effect indicated that the suicide risk increased over time, except for a gradual decline from age 35 to 49. The suicide risk increased greatly in adolescents and reached the highest among the elderly.
The aggregated population-level data and the non-identifiability of the APC model could result in bias in the accuracy of results in this study.
This study successfully updated the Chinese suicide risk from the age, period and cohort perspective using the latest available data (2004-2019). The findings enhance the understanding of suicide epidemiology and provide evidence supporting policies and strategies at the macro-level for suicide prevention and management. Immediate action is needed to focus on a national suicide prevention strategy that targets generation Z, adolescents and the elderly which will require a collaborative effort by government officials, public/community health planners and health care agencies.
摘要：
背景：自1990年代以来，中国的总体自杀率大幅下降，但近年来，在特定群体中观察到下降速度放缓，甚至出现逆转趋势。本研究旨在通过使用年龄周期队列（APC）分析来调查中国大陆的最新自杀风险。
方法：这项基于人群的多年横断面研究使用中国卫生统计年鉴（2005-2020）的数据纳入了10至84岁的中国人。通过APC分析和内在估计器(IE)技术分析数据。
结果：数据符合构建的APC模型。队列效应表明，1920-1944年出生的人中自杀的风险很高，而1945-1979年队列中自杀的风险急剧下降。最低的风险发生在1980-1994队列中，在Z世代（1995-2009出生年）急剧增加之前。期间效应自2004年以来呈下降趋势。年龄效应表明自杀风险随着时间的推移而增加，除了从35岁到49岁逐渐下降。青少年自杀风险大大增加，老年人自杀风险最高。
结论：汇总的人口水平数据和APC模型的不可识别性可能导致本研究结果准确性的偏差。
结论：这项研究成功地更新了中国人的自杀风险，使用最新的可用数据（2004-2019年），从时期和队列角度。研究结果增强了对自杀流行病学的理解，并为自杀预防和管理提供了宏观层面的支持政策和策略的证据。需要立即采取行动，将重点放在针对Z一代的国家自杀预防战略上，青少年和老年人需要政府官员的共同努力，公共/社区卫生规划师和卫生保健机构。
方法：这项基于人群的多年横断面研究使用中国卫生统计年鉴（2005-2020）的数据纳入了10至84岁的中国人。
结果：数据符合构建的APC模型。
结论：汇总的人口水平数据和APC模型的不可识别性可能导致本研究结果准确性的偏差。
结论：这项研究成功地更新了中国人的自杀风险，
