Historical epidemiology

历史流行病学
  • 文章类型: Editorial
    暂无摘要。
    导出

    更多引用

    收藏

    翻译标题摘要

    我要上传

       PDF(Pubmed)

  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目标:有些人无法从急性病毒感染中完全康复,并经历持续数月甚至数年的症状或不完全康复。这并不是SARS-CoV-2病毒所独有的,历史表明病毒后疾病,如COVID-19后疾病,也被称为LongCovid,不是新的。特别是,在由呼吸道病毒引起的大流行期间和之后,增加了专业和公众的关注,尤其是因为受影响的人数众多。方法:鉴于主题的当前相关性,本文旨在对过去大流行期间病毒后症状的相关文献进行叙述性回顾和总结,并用1890年,1918年-1920年及以后的大流行中的瑞士例子进行补充和说明.结果:在过去的150年中,在呼吸道感染引发的过去大流行期间和之后,病毒后疾病是越来越强调的健康主题。结论:在下一次大流行中,病毒后状况将再次发挥作用并不奇怪,大流行计划应该反映这一点。
    Objectives: Some people do not fully recover from an acute viral infection and experience persistent symptoms or incomplete recovery for months or even years. This is not unique to the SARS-CoV-2 virus and history shows that post-viral conditions like post COVID-19 condition, also referred to as Long Covid, are not new. In particular, during and after pandemics caused by respiratory viruses in which large parts of the population were infected or exposed, professional and public attention was increased, not least because of the large number of people affected. Methods: Given the current relevance of the topic, this article aims to narratively review and summarize the literature on post-viral symptoms during past pandemics and to supplement and illustrate it with Swiss examples from the pandemics of 1890, 1918-1920 and later. Results: Post-viral diseases were an increasingly emphasised health topic during and after past pandemics triggered by respiratory infections over the last 150 years. Conclusion: In the next pandemic, it should not be surprising that post-viral conditions will again play a role, and pandemic plans should reflect this.
    导出

    更多引用

    收藏

    翻译标题摘要

    我要上传

       PDF(Pubmed)

  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在阿拉斯加,1918-20年的流感大流行是毁灭性的,死亡率高达90%的人口,而在瑞典北部和挪威的其他北极地区,死亡率相当低。我们调查了格陵兰在1918-21年期间超额死亡率的时间和年龄模式,并将其与其他流行病和1889-92年的大流行进行了比较。我们访问了格陵兰国家档案馆,并按年龄转录了1880年至1921年的所有死亡病例,地理,和死因。我们估计了每月的超额死亡率,并研究了大流行的时空模式,并将其与40年期间的其他死亡率危机进行了比较。1918-21年的流感大流行于1919年夏天抵达格陵兰,由于冬季的船舶交通中断而推迟了一年。我们发现,格陵兰人口中有5.2%死于大流行,各县之间存在很大差异(范围,0.1%至11%)。我们没有看到年轻人死亡率高的典型大流行年龄模式,可能是由于该年龄组或偏远的基线死亡率高。然而,尽管死亡率很高,相对于其他死亡危机,死亡率影响并不突出,或在阿拉斯加人口中报告的类似破坏。
    In Alaska, the 1918-20 influenza pandemic was devastating, with mortality rates up to 90% of the population, while in other arctic regions in northern Sweden and Norway mortality was considerably lower. We investigated the timing and age-patterns in excess mortality in Greenland during the period 1918-21 and compare these to other epidemics and the 1889-92 pandemic. We accessed the Greenlandic National Archives and transcribed all deaths from 1880 to 1921 by age, geography, and cause of death. We estimated monthly excess mortality and studied the spatial-temporal patterns of the pandemics and compared them to other mortality crises in the 40-year period. The 1918-21 influenza pandemic arrived in Greenland in the summer of 1919, one year delayed due to ship traffic interruptions during the winter months. We found that 5.2% of the Greenland population died of the pandemic with substantial variability between counties (range, 0.1% to 11%). We did not see the typical pandemic age-pattern of high young-adult mortality, possibly due to high baseline mortality in this age-group or remoteness. However, despite substantial mortality, the mortality impact was not standing out relative to other mortality crises, or of similar devastation reported in Alaskan populations.
    导出

    更多引用

    收藏

    翻译标题摘要

    我要上传

       PDF(Pubmed)

  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:我们描述了二十世纪初荷兰地区之间两种常见的应报告疾病白喉和猩红热的发生率如何变化,并确定这种变化背后的潜在因素。
    方法:1905-1925年的数字化每周强制性通知数据,汇总为27个“空间单位”,由省份和人口密度类别的独特组合定义(高:4500以上;中:1250-4500;低:少于1250居民km-2)。拟合了广义加性回归模型来估计通知率和人口密度之间的关联,婴儿死亡率和家庭收入,同时调整每个空间单位的时间趋势。
    结果:从1905-1925年开始,白喉和猩红热的年人均通报率趋于上升,直到1918/1919年左右达到峰值。与低密度城市相比,高,中,调整后的白喉通知率更高(每100000例71.6例,95%置信区间(CI):52.7-90.5;39.0/100k,95%CI:分别为24.7-53.3)。猩红热与人口密度相似(每100000例35.7例,95%CI:9.4-62.0;21.4/100k,95%CI:1.5-41.3)。
    结论:在20世纪早期荷兰,这两种疾病的通报率存在相当大的空间差异,这可以部分解释为捕捉生活条件和社会经济环境变化的因素。这些发现有助于理解当代呼吸道感染的传播。
    BACKGROUND: We describe how rates of two frequently occurring notifiable diseases-diphtheria and scarlet fever-varied between regions of The Netherlands in the early twentieth century, and identify potential factors underlying this variation.
    METHODS: Digitized weekly mandatory notification data for 1905-1925, municipality level, were aggregated into 27 \'spatial units\' defined by unique combinations of province and population density category (high: more than 4500; mid : 1250-4500; low: less than 1250 inhabitants km-2). Generalized additive regression models were fitted to estimate the associations between notification rates and population density, infant mortality rate and household income, while adjusting for temporal trends per spatial unit.
    RESULTS: Annual per capita notification rates for both diphtheria and scarlet fever tended to rise from the beginning of the period 1905-1925 until peaking around 1918/1919. Adjusted diphtheria notification rates were higher for high- and mid- compared with low-density municipalities (by 71.6 cases per 100 000, 95% confidence interval (CI) : 52.7-90.5; 39.0/100 k, 95% CI : 24.7-53.3, respectively). Scarlet fever showed similar associations with population density (35.7 cases per 100 000, 95% CI : 9.4-62.0; 21.4/100 k, 95% CI: 1.5-41.3).
    CONCLUSIONS: There was considerable spatial variation in notification rates for both diseases in early twentieth century Netherlands, which could partly be explained by factors capturing variation in living conditions and socio-economic circumstances. These findings aid understanding of contemporary respiratory infection transmission.
    导出

    更多引用

    收藏

    翻译标题摘要

    我要上传

       PDF(Pubmed)

  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    为HIV-1M大流行而制定的完美风暴模型也被用来解释HIV-2的出现,HIV-2是第二种人类免疫缺陷病毒获得性免疫缺陷综合症(HIV-AIDS)在几内亚比绍流行,西非。这个模型的使用创造了流行病学的概括,生态过度简化和历史误解作为其假设——人口爆炸性增长的城市中心,高水平的商业性行为和性传播疾病的激增,全国的机械运输网络,大规模的移动运动-在历史记录中没有。这个模型无法解释HIV-2的流行是如何发生的。这是第一项对社会历史背景发展进行详尽审查并使其与环境,病毒学和流行病学数据。跨学科对话表明,HIV-2流行病的出现伴随着当地的社会政治变革。战争对生态关系的间接影响,流动性和社交能力在农村地区非常严重,是HIV-2流行的关键。这种环境有病毒的天然宿主,人口数量,在促进病毒适应和扩增所需的规模上,流动性趋势和技术的使用。本分析提出了对人畜共患溢出和疾病出现过程的新思考。
    The perfect storm model that was elaborated for the HIV-1M pandemic has also been used to explain the emergence of HIV-2, a second human immunodeficiency virus-acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV-AIDS) that became an epidemic in Guinea-Bissau, West Africa. The use of this model creates epidemiological generalizations, ecological oversimplifications and historical misunderstandings as its assumptions-an urban center with explosive population growth, a high level of commercial sex and a surge in STDs, a network of mechanical transport and country-wide, en masse mobile campaigns-are absent from the historical record. This model fails to explain how the HIV-2 epidemic actually came about. This is the first study to conduct an exhaustive examination of sociohistorical contextual developments and align them with environmental, virological and epidemiological data. The interdisciplinary dialogue indicates that the emergence of the HIV-2 epidemic piggybacked on local sociopolitical transformations. The war\'s indirect effects on ecological relations, mobility and sociability were acute in rural areas and are a key to the HIV-2 epidemic. This setting had the natural host of the virus, the population numbers, the mobility trends and the use of technology on a scale needed to foster viral adaptation and amplification. The present analysis suggests new reflections on the processes of zoonotic spillovers and disease emergence.
    导出

    更多引用

    收藏

    翻译标题摘要

    我要上传

       PDF(Pubmed)

  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    进行历史死亡登记主要是为了评估鼠疫的存在。米兰的LiberMortuorum是欧洲最早的具有许多社会人口统计学细节的登记册之一。在这项工作中,我们考虑1480对死亡事件进行空间和时间分析,以找到关于事件的分布和事件随时间的趋势的可能解释。空间分析涉及Moran\'sI,LISA,和热图;时间分析应用了Durbin-Watson测试。所有分析分别对所有受试者进行(1813),儿童(765),成人(1046)考虑了Contrade(地区)进行空间分析。莫兰的I和德宾·沃森测试对所有受试者和儿童的分析都很重要,LISA对这些组显示了相同的结果。随着时间的推移,儿童可能会显著影响死亡的分布和趋势。至少一半的孩子是0岁,第一个童年时期的生存与家庭密切相关,所以它可以代表一个地区的条件。
    Historical death registration was conducted primarily to assess the presence of plague. The Liber Mortuorum of Milan was one of Europe\'s first registers with many socio-demographical details. In this work, we consider 1480 to make spatial and temporal analyses of the event of death to find possible explanations about the events\' distribution and the events\' trend over time. The spatial analyses involved Moran\'s I, the LISA, and the heatmaps; the temporal analysis applied the Durbin-Watson test. All the analyses were conducted separately on all subjects (1813), children (765), and adults (1046). Contrade (districts) were considered for spatial analysis. Moran\'s I and the Durbin Watson test were significant on all subjects and children\'s analyses, and the LISA showed the same results for those groups. Children may significantly impact the distribution of death and the trend over time. At least half of the children were 0 years old, and survival in the very first childhood period was closely linked to the family, so that it could be a proxy of the conditions of an area.
    导出

    更多引用

    收藏

    翻译标题摘要

    我要上传

       PDF(Pubmed)

  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    本评论鼓励定期存档废水和/或污水的核酸稳定的系列样品。稳定的样品将有助于建筑环境生物流体的回顾性重建。生物时间胶囊将允许回顾性搜索来自病毒如SARS-CoV-2的核酸。如果样本在将来变得重要的情况下被保存,则用于测试的当前资源不需要被转移。系统储存将有助于调查病毒和其他病原体的起源和流行情况。将来自个人和临床采样的患病率数据与社区废水进行比较,可以进行有价值的比较,不同测试方式之间的对比和相关性。当前的兴趣集中在SARS-CoV-2上,但是存档的样本在许多情况下可能会变得有价值,包括对其他目前尚不清楚身份的感染和化学制剂的调查。存档的废水时间序列将与其他生物存储库和记录一起取代,包括来自医疗设施的记录。博物馆,eDNA,活细胞和组织集合。这些共同将证明人类世不断发展的宝贵记录。
    This commentary encourages the regular archiving of nucleic-acid-stabilized serial samples of wastewaters and/or sewage. Stabilized samples would facilitate retrospective reconstitution of built environments\' biological fluids. Biological time capsules would allow retrospective searches for nucleic acids from viruses such as SARS-CoV-2. Current resources for testing need not be diverted if samples are saved in case they become important in the future. Systematic storage would facilitate investigation into the origin and prevalence of viruses and other agents. Comparison of prevalence data from individual and clinical samplings with community wastewater would allow valuable comparison, contrast and correlation among different testing modalities. Current interest is focused on SARS-CoV-2, but archived samples could become valuable in many contexts including surveys for other infectious and chemical agents whose identity is not currently known. Archived time series of wastewater will take their place alongside other biological repositories and records including those from medical facilities, museums, eDNA, living cell and tissue collections. Together these will prove invaluable records of the evolving Anthropocene.
    导出

    更多引用

    收藏

    翻译标题摘要

    我要上传

       PDF(Sci-hub)

       PDF(Pubmed)

  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    Interpreting the interplay between politics, social demographics and epidemiology is essential for understanding how a disease\'s occurrence and control evolve over time. Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus was first detected in Kenya in 1915 and serotyped in 1932. This review aims to describe and appraise initiatives to control FMD in Kenya since its independence from British rule in 1964, using information from the scientific literature. We describe the historical dynamics of FMD epidemiology in the country and determine socio-political factors that have shaped the control strategies used. PubMed, Scopus, CAB abstracts, Science Direct, Web of Science and Google Scholar were used to search and retrieve papers, using predetermined search criteria encompassing FMD, Kenya and disease control programme descriptors. In total 1234 papers were identified and screened for relevance using the World Health Organization\'s guidelines for rapid review. Ultimately 69 references from this search were included, and information extracted and consolidated. These papers highlight that following independence, there was a structured effort to control FMD consisting of a compulsory subsidised vaccination programme in the Rift Valley with movement controls and quarantine when outbreaks occurred. This programme led to an initial decrease in recorded FMD outbreaks. However, endemic circulation continued and this programme was discontinued due to multiple factors, including political deprioritisation and changes in the structure of veterinary services. Only low levels of active surveillance have been applied since 1964; most surveillance is passive and relies on outbreak reports. Currently control focuses on outbreak management and a mixture of public- and privately-funded vaccination. This review highlights critical drivers influencing disease control programme implementation including veterinary service structure, the active participation of stakeholders with farming systems and availability of affordable and matched FMD vaccine. Additionally, it appraises the availability of historical information and draws attention to gaps in the historical record.
    导出

    更多引用

    收藏

    翻译标题摘要

    我要上传

       PDF(Sci-hub)

  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    This paper argues that a cluster of pathogens, hazardous labor conditions, and environmental constraints rendered chronic gastrointestinal distress fatal for African laborers living near Lambaréné, Gabon during the 1920s. Application of syndemic theory and epidemiological methods on patient records at Hospital Schweitzer, the central hospital of the region, explain how a seemingly simple diagnosis of chronic gastrointestinal distress belied a complex web of worsening biological and social outcomes for laborers in the tropical forests of central Gabon. An analysis of the syndemic suffering of GI patients reveals how the dysentery pathogen became tied to the peaks and valleys of the colonial economy, and in particular, the colonial extraction of tropical hardwoods. These processes culminated in the summer of 1929 when the highest number of timber exports coincided with the deadliest months of dysentery outbreak for the patient population at Hospital Schweitzer. This case study proposes syndemics as an effective theoretical framework to research historical precedents of the entanglement of people, pathogens, and illness.
    导出

    更多引用

    收藏

    翻译标题摘要

    我要上传

       PDF(Sci-hub)

  • 文章类型: Letter
    The AIDH is a project as a historical epidemiology. The AIDH aims to collect, maintain, and manage past epidemiological materials and to offer these materials to persons who are interested in the history and in the fields of tropical medicine and global health. In this paper, we introduce our purpose and activities and show a hypothesis about lymphatic filariasis with Brugia malayi in Japan as a case of historical epidemiology. We hope to build fruitful ties between historians and scholars of tropical medicine and global health workers through an interdisciplinary approach to the history of control of infectious diseases.
    导出

    更多引用

    收藏

    翻译标题摘要

    我要上传

       PDF(Sci-hub)

       PDF(Pubmed)

公众号