PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
The perfect storm model that was elaborated for the HIV-1M pandemic has also been used to explain the emergence of HIV-2, a second human immunodeficiency virus-acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV-AIDS) that became an epidemic in Guinea-Bissau, West Africa. The use of this model creates epidemiological generalizations, ecological oversimplifications and historical misunderstandings as its assumptions-an urban center with explosive population growth, a high level of commercial sex and a surge in STDs, a network of mechanical transport and country-wide, en masse mobile campaigns-are absent from the historical record. This model fails to explain how the HIV-2 epidemic actually came about. This is the first study to conduct an exhaustive examination of sociohistorical contextual developments and align them with environmental, virological and epidemiological data. The interdisciplinary dialogue indicates that the emergence of the HIV-2 epidemic piggybacked on local sociopolitical transformations. The war\'s indirect effects on ecological relations, mobility and sociability were acute in rural areas and are a key to the HIV-2 epidemic. This setting had the natural host of the virus, the population numbers, the mobility trends and the use of technology on a scale needed to foster viral adaptation and amplification. The present analysis suggests new reflections on the processes of zoonotic spillovers and disease emergence.
摘要：
为HIV-1M大流行而制定的完美风暴模型也被用来解释HIV-2的出现，HIV-2是第二种人类免疫缺陷病毒获得性免疫缺陷综合症（HIV-AIDS）在几内亚比绍流行，西非。这个模型的使用创造了流行病学的概括，生态过度简化和历史误解作为其假设——人口爆炸性增长的城市中心，高水平的商业性行为和性传播疾病的激增，全国的机械运输网络，大规模的移动运动-在历史记录中没有。这个模型无法解释HIV-2的流行是如何发生的。这是第一项对社会历史背景发展进行详尽审查并使其与环境，病毒学和流行病学数据。跨学科对话表明，HIV-2流行病的出现伴随着当地的社会政治变革。战争对生态关系的间接影响，流动性和社交能力在农村地区非常严重，是HIV-2流行的关键。这种环境有病毒的天然宿主，人口数量,在促进病毒适应和扩增所需的规模上，流动性趋势和技术的使用。本分析提出了对人畜共患溢出和疾病出现过程的新思考。
