In order to explore the association between meat consumption and gastrointestinal/colorectal cancer (CRC) risk and to estimate the Israeli population attributable fraction (PAF), we conducted a collaborative historical cohort study using the individual participant data of seven nutritional studies from the past 6 decades. We included healthy adult men and women who underwent a nutritional interview. Dietary assessment data, using food-frequency or 24-h recall questionnaires, were harmonized. The study file was linked to the National Cancer and death registries. Among 27,754 participants, 1216 (4.4%) were diagnosed with gastrointestinal cancers and 839 (3.0%) with CRC by the end of 2016. Using meta-analysis methods applied to Cox proportional hazard models (adjusted for daily energy intake, sex, age, ethnic origin, education and smoking),100 g/day increments in beef, red meat and poultry consumption, and 50 g/day increment in processed meat consumption were associated with hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals of 1.46 (1.06-2.02), 1.15 (0.87-1.52), 1.06 (0.89-1.26), and 0.93 (0.76-1.12), respectively, for CRC. Similar results were obtained for gastrointestinal cancer, although red meat consumption reached statistical significance (HR = 1.27; 95%CI: 1.02-1.58). The PAFs associated with a reduction to a maximum of 50 g/day in the consumption of red meat were 2.7% (95%CI: -1.9 to 12.0) and 5.2% (0.3-13.9) for CRC and gastrointestinal cancers, respectively. Reduction of beef consumption to a maximum of 50 g/day will result in a CRC PAF reduction of 7.5% (0.7%-24.3%). While beef consumption was associated with gastrointestinal/CRC excess risk, poultry consumption was not. A substantial part of processed meat consumption in Israel is processed poultry, perhaps explaining the lack of association with CRC.

UNASSIGNED: Increased particulate matter <2.5 μm (PM2.5) air pollution is associated with adverse cardiovascular outcomes. However, its impact on patients with prior coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) is unknown.
UNASSIGNED: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association between major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) (defined as myocardial infarction, stroke, or cardiovascular death) and air pollution after CABG.
UNASSIGNED: We linked 26,403 U.S. veterans who underwent CABG (2010-2019) nationally with average annual ambient PM2.5 estimates using residential address. Over a 5-year median follow-up period, we identified MACE and fit a multivariable Cox proportional hazard model to determine the risk of MACE as per PM2.5 exposure. We also estimated the absolute potential reduction in PM2.5 attributable MACE simulating a hypothetical PM2.5 lowered to the revised World Health Organization standard of 5 μg/m3.
UNASSIGNED: The observed median PM2.5 exposure was 7.9 μg/m3 (IQR: 7.0-8.9 μg/m3; 95% of patients were exposed to PM2.5 above 5 μg/m3). Increased PM2.5 exposure was associated with a higher 10-year MACE rate (first tertile 38% vs third tertile 45%; P < 0.001). Adjusting for demographic, racial, and clinical characteristics, a 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 resulted in 27% relative risk for MACE (HR: 1.27, 95% CI: 1.10-1.46; P < 0.001). Currently, 10% of total MACE is attributable to PM2.5 exposure. Reducing maximum PM2.5 to 5 μg/m3 could result in a 7% absolute reduction in 10-year MACE rates.
UNASSIGNED: In this large nationwide CABG cohort, ambient PM2.5 air pollution was strongly associated with adverse 10-year cardiovascular outcomes. Reducing levels to World Health Organization-recommended standards would result in a substantial risk reduction at the population level.

Globally, cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the leading cause of mortality and disability, with hypertension being the single most important modifiable risk factor. Hypertension is responsible for about 18% of global deaths from CVD, of which African regions are disproportionately affected, especially sub-Saharan Africa. This study assessed the burden of major CVD subtypes attributable to hypertension in Nigeria.
The population attributable fractions (PAF) for myocardial infarction, all strokes, ischaemic stroke and intracerebral haemorrhagic stroke attributable to hypertension in Nigeria were calculated using published results from the INTERHEART and INTERSTROKE studies and prevalence estimates of hypertension in Nigeria. PAF estimates were obtained for age, sex, and geopolitical zones.
Overall, hypertension contributed to 13.2% of all myocardial infarctions and 24.6% of all strokes, including 21.6% of all ischaemic strokes and 33.1% of all intracerebral haemorrhagic strokes. Among men aged ≤55 years, the PAF for myocardial infarction ranged from 11.7% (North-West) to 14.6% (South-East), while in older men, it spanned 9.2% (North-West) to 11.9% (South-East). Among women aged ≤65 years, PAF varied from 18.6% (South-South) to 20.8% (South-East and North-Central), and among women aged >65 years, it ranged from 10.4% (South-South) to 12.7% (South-East).
Hypertension is a key contributor to the burden of CVD in Nigeria. Understanding the burden of hypertension in the Nigerian population overall and key subgroups is crucial to developing and implementing contextualised health policies to reduce the burden of CVD. Public health interventions and policies centred on hypertension will play a critical role in potentially alleviating the burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in Nigeria.

UNASSIGNED: Breast cancer (BC) represents a significant health challenge in Europe due to its elevated prevalence and heterogeneity. Despite notable progress in diagnostic and treatment methods, the region continues to grapple with rising BC burdens, with comprehensive investigations into this matter notably lacking. This study explores BC burden and potential contributing risk factors in 44 European countries from 1990 to 2019. The aim is to furnish evidence supporting the development of strategies for managing BC effectively.
UNASSIGNED: Disease burden estimates related to breast cancer from the Global Burden of Disease 2019(GBD2019) across Eastern, Central, and Western Europe were examined using Joinpoint regression for trends from 1990 to 2019. Linear regression models examined relationships between BC burden and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), healthcare access and quality (HAQ), and BC prevalence. We utilized disability-adjusted life year(DALY) proportions for each risk factor to depict BC risks.
UNASSIGNED: In Europe, the BC burden was 463.2 cases per 100,000 people in 2019, 1.7 times the global burden. BC burden in women was significantly higher and increased with age. Age-standardized mortality and DALY rates of BC in Europe in 2019 decreased by 23.1%(average annual percent change: AAPC -0.92) and 25.9%(AAPC -1.02), respectively, compared to 1990, in line with global trends. From 1990 to 2019, age-standardized DALY declined faster in Western Europe (-34.8%, AAPC -1.49) than in Eastern Europe (-9.4%, AAPC -0.25) and Central Europe (-15.0%, AAPC -0.56). Monaco, Serbia, and Montenegro had the highest BC burden in Europe in 2019. BC burden was negatively correlated with HAQ. In addition, Alcohol use and Tobacco were significant risk factors for DALY. High fasting plasma glucose and obesity were also crucial risk factors that cannot be ignored in DALY.
UNASSIGNED: The burden of BC in Europe remains a significant health challenge, with regional variations despite an overall downward trend. Addressing the burden of BC in different regions of Europe and the increase of DALY caused by different risk factors, targeted prevention measures should be taken, especially the management of alcohol and tobacco should be strengthened, and screening services for BC should be popularized, and medical resources and technology allocation should be optimized.

UNASSIGNED: Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading causes of global mortality and disability. Several studies demonstrated that metabolic risk factors increase cardiovascular mortality. The aim of this study is to examine CVDs deaths and population attributable fractions (PAFs) of their metabolic risk factors in Iran.
UNASSIGNED: This is a study on 8621 participants aged 45-75 years and older, recruited in the repeated measurement phase of the Golestan cohort study (GCS) in northeast of Iran. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to determine the adjusted hazard ratios (HRs). PAFs were calculated to enumerate CVDs mortality avoidable in the population if metabolic risk factors were eliminated.
UNASSIGNED: The mortality of CVDs was attributable to metabolic factors, including high waist circumference (PAF, 28 %, [95 % CI: 16%-38 %]), high fasting blood sugar (FBS) (20 %, [15%-24 %]), overweight and obesity (19 %, [8%-28 %]), high blood pressure (16 %, [11%-21 %]), high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) (8 %, [1%-15 %]), and high triglyceride (TG) (7 %, [3%-11 %]). Collectively, these metabolic risk factors accounted for 50 % of CVDs deaths. Females (67 %, [50%-78 %]) had a higher joint PAF of metabolic risk factors compared to males (43 %, [27%-55 %]).
UNASSIGNED: The pattern of CVDs mortality attributable to metabolic risk factors in this study is not the same as similar studies in other parts of the world and previous studies in Iran. It is imperative that CVDs risk factors be specifically evaluated and addressed in various populations due to variety in geographical and temporal patterns in contribution of metabolic risk factors to CVD mortality.

BACKGROUND: Evidence regarding sex differences in the associations of traditional risk factors with incident heart failure (HF) hospitalization among Chinese general adults is insufficient. This study aimed to evaluate the potential sex differences in the associations of traditional risk factors with HF among Chinese general adults.
RESULTS: Data were from a subcohort of the China PEACE (Patient-Centered Evaluative Assessment of Cardiac Events) Million Persons Project. The traditional risk factors were collected at baseline, and the study outcome was HF-related hospitalization identified from the Inpatients Registry. A total of 102 278 participants (mean age, 54.3 years; 39.5% men) without prevalent HF were recruited. A total of 1588 cases of HF-related hospitalization were captured after a median follow-up of 3.52 years. The incidence rates were significantly higher in men (2.1%) than in women (1.2%). However, the observed lower risk of HF in women was significantly attenuated or even vanished when several traditional risk factors were poorly controlled (P for sex-by-risk factors <0.05). The selected 11 risk factors collectively explained 62.5% (95% CI, 55.1-68.8) of population attributable fraction for HF in women, which is much higher than in men (population attributable fraction, 39.6% [95% CI, 28.5-48.9]).
CONCLUSIONS: Although women had a lower incidence rate of hospitalization for HF than men in this study, the risk for HF increased more remarkably in women than in men when several traditional risk factors were poorly controlled. This study suggests that intensive preventative strategies are immediately needed in China.

BACKGROUND: Data is limited on influence of forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC) in a large adult population, including individuals with normal spirometry at baseline.
METHODS: Using the UK Biobank cohort, a multivariable Cox regression analysis was conducted on 406,424 individuals to examine the association between FEV1 and FVC, categorized into three groups based on their percentage of predicted values (%pred) (≥80, 60-80 and < 60), and overall mortality, cardiovascular mortality, myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure over approximately 12.5 years. Moreover, a subgroup analysis was conducted on 295,459 individuals who had normal spirometry.
RESULTS: Reduced FEV1 and FVC %pred values were associated with an elevated risk across all studied outcomes. Individuals with the lowest FEV1 and FVC %pred values (<60 %) exhibited HR of 1.83 (95 % CI 1.74-1.93) and 1.98 (95 % CI 1.76-2.22) for overall mortality, and 1.96 (95 % CI 1.83-2.1) and 2.26 (95 % CI 1.94-2.63) for cardiovascular mortality. Moreover, a graded association was observed between lower FEV1 and FVC %pred, even among never smokers and individuals with normal spirometry at baseline.
CONCLUSIONS: Reduced FEV1 and FVC represent robust risk factors for cardiovascular disease and mortality. The fact that the increased risk was evident also at FEV1 and FVC levels exceeding 80 %pred challenges the contemporary classification of lung function categories and the notion that the entire FEV1- and FVC-range above 80 % of predicted represents a normal lung function.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization aims for the global elimination of cervical cancer, necessitating modeling studies to forecast long-term outcomes.
OBJECTIVE: This paper introduces a macrosimulation framework using age-period-cohort modeling and population attributable fractions to predict the timeline for eliminating cervical cancer in Taiwan.
METHODS: Data for cervical cancer cases from 1997 to 2016 were obtained from the Taiwan Cancer Registry. Future incidence rates under the current approach and various intervention strategies, such as scaled-up screening (cytology based or human papillomavirus [HPV] based) and HPV vaccination, were projected.
RESULTS: Our projections indicate that Taiwan could eliminate cervical cancer by 2050 with either 70% compliance in cytology-based or HPV-based screening or 90% HPV vaccination coverage. The years projected for elimination are 2047 and 2035 for cytology-based and HPV-based screening, respectively; 2050 for vaccination alone; and 2038 and 2033 for combined screening and vaccination approaches.
CONCLUSIONS: The age-period-cohort macrosimulation framework offers a valuable policy analysis tool for cervical cancer control. Our findings can inform strategies in other high-incidence countries, serving as a benchmark for global efforts to eliminate the disease.

OBJECTIVE: We prospectively determined incident cardiovascular events and their association with risk factors in rural India.
METHODS: We followed up with 7935 adults from the Rishi Valley Prospective Cohort Study to identify incident cardiovascular events. Using Cox proportional hazards regression, we estimated hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for associations between potential risk factors and cardiovascular events. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) for risk factors were estimated using R (\'averisk\' package).
RESULTS: Of the 4809 participants without prior cardiovascular disease, 57.7% were women and baseline mean age was 45.3 years. At follow-up (median of 4.9 years, 23,180 person-years [PYs]), 202 participants developed cardiovascular events, equating to an incidence of 8.7 cardiovascular events/1000 PYs. Incidence was greater in those with hypertension (hazard ratio [HR] [95% CI] 1.73 [1.21-2.49], adjusted PAF 18%), diabetes (1.96 [1.15-3.36], 4%) or central obesity (1.77 [1.23, 2.54], 9%) which together accounted for 31% of the PAF. Non-traditional risk factors such as night sleeping hours and number of children accounted for 16% of the PAF.
CONCLUSIONS: Both traditional and non-traditional cardiovascular risk factors are important contributors to incident cardiovascular events in rural India. Interventions targeted to these factors could assist in reducing the incidence of cardiovascular events.

Over the past decade, extreme temperature events have become more frequent and longer in duration. Previous studies on the association between extreme cold events (ECEs) and congenital heart defects (CHDs) are few and inconsistent. We conducted a national multicenter study in 1313 hospitals in 26 provinces in China and collected a total of 14 808 high CHD-risk participants from 2013 to 2021. We evaluated the ECEs experienced by each pregnant women during the embryonic period (3-8 weeks). The results indicated that ECEs experienced by pregnant women during the embryonic period were associated with the development of fetal CHD and were more strongly associated with some specific fetal CHD subtypes, such as pulmonary stenosis, pulmonary atresia, and tetralogy of Fallot. Of the CHD burden, 2.21% (95% CI: 1.43, 2.99%)-2.40% (95% CI: 1.26, 3.55%) of fetal CHD cases were attributable to ECEs during the embryonic period. Our findings emphasize the need to pay more attention to pregnant women whose embryonic period falls during the cold season to reduce cold spell detriments to newborns.