%0 Journal Article
%T Projected Time for the Elimination of Cervical Cancer Under Various Intervention Scenarios: Age-Period-Cohort Macrosimulation Study.
%A Chen YC
%A Chen YY
%A Su SY
%A Jhuang JR
%A Chiang CJ
%A Yang YW
%A Lin LJ
%A Wu CC
%A Lee WC
%J JMIR Public Health Surveill
%V 10
%N 0
%D 2024 Apr 18
%M 38635315
%F 14.557
%R 10.2196/46360
%X <B>BACKGROUND: </B>The World Health Organization aims for the global elimination of cervical cancer, necessitating modeling studies to forecast long-term outcomes.<BR><B>OBJECTIVE: </B>This paper introduces a macrosimulation framework using age-period-cohort modeling and population attributable fractions to predict the timeline for eliminating cervical cancer in Taiwan.<BR><B>METHODS: </B>Data for cervical cancer cases from 1997 to 2016 were obtained from the Taiwan Cancer Registry. Future incidence rates under the current approach and various intervention strategies, such as scaled-up screening (cytology based or human papillomavirus [HPV] based) and HPV vaccination, were projected.<BR><B>RESULTS: </B>Our projections indicate that Taiwan could eliminate cervical cancer by 2050 with either 70% compliance in cytology-based or HPV-based screening or 90% HPV vaccination coverage. The years projected for elimination are 2047 and 2035 for cytology-based and HPV-based screening, respectively; 2050 for vaccination alone; and 2038 and 2033 for combined screening and vaccination approaches.<BR><B>CONCLUSIONS: </B>The age-period-cohort macrosimulation framework offers a valuable policy analysis tool for cervical cancer control. Our findings can inform strategies in other high-incidence countries, serving as a benchmark for global efforts to eliminate the disease.