背景:研究表明,登革热病毒的传播与环境温度有关。我们进行了系统评价和荟萃分析,以评估高温和热浪事件对全球不同气候区登革热传播的影响。
方法:在PubMed,Scopus,Embase,和WebofScience从1990年1月至2022年9月20日。我们使用生态时间序列纳入了同行评审的原始观测研究,案例交叉,或案例系列研究设计报告高温和热浪与登革热的关联,并比较不同暴露或时间段的风险。分类为病例报告的研究,临床试验,非人类研究,会议摘要,社论,reviews,书籍,海报,评论;仅检查季节性影响的研究被排除在外。从已发表的文献中提取效果估计。进行了随机效应荟萃分析,以汇集温度每升高1°C的登革热感染的相对风险(RR),我们还进行了进一步的亚组分析.根据导航指南系统审查方法框架,对证据的质量和强度进行了评估。审查方案已在国际前瞻性系统审查登记册(PROSPERO)中注册。
结果:研究选择过程产生了6367项研究。共有106项研究涵盖了400多万例登革热病例,符合纳入标准;其中,54项研究符合荟萃分析的条件。总体汇总估计显示,高温每升高1°C,登革热感染的风险增加13%(RR=1.13;95%置信区间(CI):1.11-1.16,I2=98.0%)。按气候区进行的亚组分析表明,热带季风气候区(RR=1.29,95%CI:1.11-1.51)和亚热带湿润气候区(RR=1.20,95%CI:1.15-1.25)的温度影响更大。热波事件显示与登革热感染风险增加相关(RR=1.08;95%CI:0.95-1.23,I2=88.9%),尽管置信区间很宽。发现证据的总体强度对于高温“足够”,但对于热浪“有限”。我们的结果表明,高温会增加登革热感染的风险,尽管不同气候区和不同国民收入水平的风险各不相同。
结论:高温会增加登革热感染的相对风险。关于温度与登革热感染之间关系的未来研究应考虑当地和区域气候,社会人口和环境特征,以探索地方和区域两级的脆弱性,以进行针对性的预防。
背景:澳大利亚研究委员会发现计划。
BACKGROUND: Studies have shown that dengue virus transmission increases in association with ambient temperature. We performed a systematic
review and meta-analysis to assess the effect of both high temperatures and heatwave events on dengue transmission in different climate zones globally.
METHODS: A systematic literature search was conducted in PubMed, Scopus, Embase, and Web of Science from January 1990 to September 20, 2022. We included peer reviewed original observational studies using ecological time series, case crossover, or case series study designs reporting the association of high temperatures and heatwave with dengue and comparing risks over different exposures or time periods. Studies classified as case reports, clinical trials, non-human studies, conference abstracts, editorials, reviews, books, posters, commentaries; and studies that examined only seasonal effects were excluded. Effect estimates were extracted from published literature. A random effects meta-analysis was performed to pool the relative risks (RRs) of dengue infection per 1 °C increase in temperature, and further subgroup analyses were also conducted. The quality and strength of evidence were evaluated following the Navigation Guide systematic
review methodology framework. The
review protocol has been registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO).
RESULTS: The study selection process yielded 6367 studies. A total of 106 studies covering more than four million dengue cases fulfilled the inclusion criteria; of these, 54 studies were eligible for meta-analysis. The overall pooled estimate showed a 13% increase in risk of dengue infection (RR = 1.13; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.11-1.16, I2 = 98.0%) for each 1 °C increase in high temperatures. Subgroup analyses by climate zones suggested greater effects of temperature in tropical monsoon climate zone (RR = 1.29, 95% CI: 1.11-1.51) and humid subtropical climate zone (RR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.15-1.25). Heatwave events showed association with an increased risk of dengue infection (RR = 1.08; 95% CI: 0.95-1.23, I2 = 88.9%), despite a wide confidence interval. The overall strength of evidence was found to be \"sufficient\" for high temperatures but \"limited\" for heatwaves. Our results showed that high temperatures increased the risk of dengue infection, albeit with varying risks across climate zones and different levels of national income.
CONCLUSIONS: High temperatures increased the relative risk of dengue infection. Future studies on the association between temperature and dengue infection should consider local and regional climate, socio-demographic and environmental characteristics to explore vulnerability at local and regional levels for tailored prevention.
BACKGROUND: Australian Research Council Discovery Program.