dengue fever

登革热
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    对2023年在宁波市部署的登革热监测和预警系统进行全面评估,重点评估其及时识别和报告登革热病例的能力,特别是来自流行地区的输入病例。
    从临床记录和监测报告中收集了患者临床特征和血液特征趋势的详细数据,专注于快速诊断过程和监测的严谨性。这项研究评估了该系统在识别和报告登革热病例方面的有效性,并通过基本的统计方法确定了现有框架的局限性。
    该系统显示出及时识别和报告登革热病例,特别强调进口病例。然而,确定了几个限制,包括需要更精确的监测标准和改善与医疗实体的协调。
    该研究强调了公共卫生机构在管理疾病暴发方面的关键作用,并倡导加强方法以完善流行病控制工作。这些发现有助于在大都市环境中推进预警机制和改善主动传染病监测。为加强宁波市登革热监测预警系统提供有价值的见解。
    UNASSIGNED: To conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the Dengue Fever Surveillance and Early Warning System deployed in Ningbo City during 2023, focusing on its capacity for timely identification and reporting of dengue fever cases, particularly imported cases from endemic regions.
    UNASSIGNED: A detailed data of patient clinical features and blood profile trends was collected from clinical records and surveillance reports, focusing on the rapid diagnostic processes and surveillance rigor. This study assessed the effectiveness of the system in identifying and reporting dengue cases and identified the limitations of the existing framework through a basic statistical approach.
    UNASSIGNED: The system demonstrated timely identification and reporting of dengue fever cases, with a particular emphasis on imported cases. However, several limitations were identified, including the need for more precise monitoring criteria and improved coordination with medical entities.
    UNASSIGNED: The study underscores the critical role of public health bodies in managing disease outbreaks and advocates for enhanced methodologies to refine epidemic control efforts. The findings contribute to the advancement of early warning mechanisms and the improvement of proactive infectious disease monitoring in metropolitan environments, providing valuable insights for fortifying the Dengue Fever Surveillance and Early Warning System in Ningbo City.
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  • 文章类型: Case Reports
    2023年8月,我们在烟台市发现了一例登革热病例,是从西双版纳进口的,中国。为了研究其进化历史和种群动态,我们利用转移转录组学方法获得了病毒的全基因组序列。连同来自NCBI数据库的367种选定的登革热病毒全基因组序列,我们构建了一个时间尺度的最大分化可信度(MCC)树。我们发现我们的序列与2023年广州市疾病预防控制中心上传的DENV1(OR418422.1)序列具有高度同源性,估计发散时间在2019年左右(95%HPD:2017-2023),与SARS-CoV-2的出现相吻合。本研究中获得的DENV菌株属于DENV1的基因型I。它的祖先在2005年左右经历了一次全球流行病(95%的HPD:2002-2010),自2007年左右(95%HPD:2006-2011)以来,其后代菌株已在东南亚和中国广泛传播。贝叶斯天际线图表明,DENV1的当前种群并未受到SARS-CoV-2的影响,并有望保持稳定的传播。因此,必须跟踪和监测其流行病学趋势和基因组变异,以防止SARS-CoV-2后时代潜在的大规模爆发。
    In August 2023, we identified a case of dengue fever in Yantai City, which was imported from Xishuangbanna, China. To investigate its evolutionary history and population dynamics, we utilized the metatranscriptomic method to obtain the virus\' whole genome sequence. Together with 367 selected dengue virus whole genome sequences from the NCBI database, we constructed a time-scaled Maximum Clade Credibility (MCC) tree. We found that our sequence exhibited a high homology with a sequence of DENV1 (OR418422.1) uploaded by the Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention in 2023, with an estimated divergence time around 2019 (95% HPD: 2017-2023), coinciding with the emergence of SARS-CoV-2. The DENV strain obtained in this study belongs to genotype I of DENV1. Its ancestors experienced a global epidemic around 2005 (95% HPD: 2002-2010), and its progeny strains have spread extensively in Southeast Asia and China since around 2007 (95% HPD: 2006-2011). The Bayesian skyline plot indicates that the current population of DENV1 has not been affected by SARS-CoV-2 and is expected to maintain stable transmission. Hence, it is imperative to track and monitor its epidemiological trends and genomic variations to prevent potential large-scale outbreaks in the post-SARS-CoV-2 era.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:登革热(DF)已成为中国重要的公共卫生问题。时空模式和影响其传播的潜在因素,然而,仍然难以捉摸。本研究旨在确定驱动这些变化的因素,并评估中国DF流行的城市风险。
    方法:我们分析了频率,强度,2003年至2022年中国DF病例分布,并评估了11个自然和社会经济因素作为潜在驱动因素。使用随机森林(RF)模型,我们评估了这些因素对当地DF流行的贡献,并预测了相应的城市风险.
    结果:2003年至2022年,本地和输入性DF流行病例数(r=0.41,P<0.01)和受影响城市(r=0.79,P<0.01)之间存在显着相关性。随着输入性疫情发生频率和强度的增加,当地的流行病变得更加严重。它们的发生率从每年5个月增加到8个月,案件数量每月从14到6641。城市级DF流行病的空间分布与Huhuanyong线(Hu线)和秦山淮河线(Q-H线)定义的地理分区一致,并且与蚊媒活动(83.59%)或DF传播(95.74%)的城市级时间窗口非常匹配。当考虑时间窗时,RF模型实现了高性能(AUC=0.92)。重要的是,他们将输入病例确定为主要影响因素,在湖线东部地区(E-H地区)的城市层面上,对当地DF流行的贡献显着(24.82%)。此外,发现进口病例对当地流行病有线性促进作用,而五个气候因素和六个社会经济因素表现出非线性效应(促进或抑制),具有不同的拐点值。此外,该模型在预测中国地方流行病的城市级风险方面表现出出色的准确性(命中率=95.56%)。
    结论:由于输入性DF流行的频率和强度不可避免地较高,中国正在经历零星的局部DF流行的增加。这项研究为卫生当局加强对这种疾病的干预能力提供了有价值的见解。
    BACKGROUND: Dengue fever (DF) has emerged as a significant public health concern in China. The spatiotemporal patterns and underlying influencing its spread, however, remain elusive. This study aims to identify the factors driving these variations and to assess the city-level risk of DF epidemics in China.
    METHODS: We analyzed the frequency, intensity, and distribution of DF cases in China from 2003 to 2022 and evaluated 11 natural and socioeconomic factors as potential drivers. Using the random forest (RF) model, we assessed the contributions of these factors to local DF epidemics and predicted the corresponding city-level risk.
    RESULTS: Between 2003 and 2022, there was a notable correlation between local and imported DF epidemics in case numbers (r = 0.41, P < 0.01) and affected cities (r = 0.79, P < 0.01). With the increase in the frequency and intensity of imported epidemics, local epidemics have become more severe. Their occurrence has increased from five to eight months per year, with case numbers spanning from 14 to 6641 per month. The spatial distribution of city-level DF epidemics aligns with the geographical divisions defined by the Huhuanyong Line (Hu Line) and Qin Mountain-Huai River Line (Q-H Line) and matched well with the city-level time windows for either mosquito vector activity (83.59%) or DF transmission (95.74%). The RF models achieved a high performance (AUC = 0.92) when considering the time windows. Importantly, they identified imported cases as the primary influencing factor, contributing significantly (24.82%) to local DF epidemics at the city level in the eastern region of the Hu Line (E-H region). Moreover, imported cases were found to have a linear promoting impact on local epidemics, while five climatic and six socioeconomic factors exhibited nonlinear effects (promoting or inhibiting) with varying inflection values. Additionally, this model demonstrated outstanding accuracy (hitting ratio = 95.56%) in predicting the city-level risks of local epidemics in China.
    CONCLUSIONS: China is experiencing an increasing occurrence of sporadic local DF epidemics driven by an unavoidably higher frequency and intensity of imported DF epidemics. This research offers valuable insights for health authorities to strengthen their intervention capabilities against this disease.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    登革热是由登革病毒(DENV)引起的蚊媒病毒性疾病。它在全球范围内构成公共卫生威胁,虽然大多数登革热患者症状轻微或无症状,大约5%的受影响个体发展为严重疾病,需要住院治疗.然而,对登革热感染的分子机制以及病毒与其宿主之间的相互作用的了解仍然有限。在本研究中,我们对19例登革热患者和11例健康人的血清进行了定量蛋白质组学和N-糖蛋白质组学分析.结果揭示了两组之间不同的蛋白质组和N-糖蛋白组景观。值得注意的是,我们首次报道了登革热感染后血清N糖基化模式的变化,并提供了有关糖蛋白的丰富信息,糖基化位点,和完整的N-糖肽使用最近开发的位点特异性糖蛋白质组学方法。此外,鉴定了蛋白质组和N-糖蛋白质组中的一系列关键功能通路。总的来说,我们的发现显着提高了对宿主和DENV相互作用以及DENV的一般发病机制和病理学的理解,为登革热感染中糖基化和聚糖结构的功能研究奠定基础。
    Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne viral disease caused by the dengue virus (DENV). It poses a public health threat globally and, while most people with dengue have mild symptoms or are asymptomatic, approximately 5% of affected individuals develop severe disease and need hospital care. However, knowledge of the molecular mechanisms underlying dengue infection and the interaction between the virus and its host remains limited. In the present study, we performed a quantitative proteomic and N-glycoproteomic analysis of serum from 19 patients with dengue and 11 healthy people. The results revealed distinct proteomic and N-glycoproteomic landscapes between the two groups. Notably, we report for the first time the changes in the serum N glycosylation pattern following dengue infection and provide abundant information on glycoproteins, glycosylation sites, and intact N-glycopeptides using recently developed site-specific glycoproteomic approaches. Furthermore, a series of key functional pathways in proteomic and N-glycoproteomic were identified. Collectively, our findings significantly improve understanding of host and DENV interactions and the general pathogenesis and pathology of DENV, laying a foundation for functional studies of glycosylation and glycan structures in dengue infection.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    登革热是一种病毒性疾病,主要由埃及伊蚊和白纹伊蚊传播。随着气候变化和城市化,越来越多的城市化地区正变得适合登革热媒介的生存和繁殖,因此越来越适合在中国传播登革热。重庆,中国西南部的一个大都市,最近受到输入性和本地登革热的影响,2019年经历首次局部疫情。然而,登革热病毒的遗传进化动态以及输入和本地登革热病例的时空模式尚未阐明。因此,这项研究使用2019年和2023年登革热病毒的基因组数据进行了系统发育分析,并对2013年至2022年收集的登革热病例进行了时空分析.我们对E基因的15个核苷酸序列进行了测序。登革热病毒形成单独的簇,与广东省的登革热病毒具有遗传相关性,中国,东南亚国家,包括老挝,泰国,缅甸和柬埔寨。2019年,重庆经历了登革热疫情,报告了168例输入性病例和1243例本地病例,主要在9月和10月。2013-2018年报告的病例很少,由于COVID-19的封锁,从2020年到2022年只有6例进口。我们的发现表明,重庆市的登革热预防应着眼于国内外人口流动,特别是在渝北和万州区,机场和火车站所在的地方,以及8月至10月期间,登革热在流行地区爆发。此外,应实施持续矢量监测,尤其是在8月至10月期间,这将有助于控制伊蚊。本研究对于明确重庆市适宜的登革热防控策略具有重要意义。
    Dengue fever is a viral illness, mainly transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. With climate change and urbanisation, more urbanised areas are becoming suitable for the survival and reproduction of dengue vector, consequently are becoming suitable for dengue transmission in China. Chongqing, a metropolis in southwestern China, has recently been hit by imported and local dengue fever, experiencing its first local outbreak in 2019. However, the genetic evolution dynamics of dengue viruses and the spatiotemporal patterns of imported and local dengue cases have not yet been elucidated. Hence, this study implemented phylogenetic analyses using genomic data of dengue viruses in 2019 and 2023 and a spatiotemporal analysis of dengue cases collected from 2013 to 2022. We sequenced a total of 15 nucleotide sequences of E genes. The dengue viruses formed separate clusters and were genetically related to those from Guangdong Province, China, and countries in Southeast Asia, including Laos, Thailand, Myanmar and Cambodia. Chongqing experienced a dengue outbreak in 2019 when 168 imported and 1,243 local cases were reported, mainly in September and October. Few cases were reported in 2013-2018, and only six were imported from 2020 to 2022 due to the COVID-19 lockdowns. Our findings suggest that dengue prevention in Chongqing should focus on domestic and overseas population mobility, especially in the Yubei and Wanzhou districts, where airports and railway stations are located, and the period between August and October when dengue outbreaks occur in endemic regions. Moreover, continuous vector monitoring should be implemented, especially during August-October, which would be useful for controlling the Aedes mosquitoes. This study is significant for defining Chongqing\'s appropriate dengue prevention and control strategies.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    本研究的目的是分析2010年至2021年云南省不同区县的登革热流行病学模式。
    在这项研究中,我们采用了连接点回归分析,空间自相关分析,和时空扫描分析来说明登革热的时空传播和人口统计学影响,使用图形和表格演示来清楚地展示发现。
    2010年至2021年期间,云南省报告登革热病例14098例。其中,11513例由本地传播引起,从国际上进口了2,566,19是省际进口。出现了季节性趋势,揭示了在夏季和秋季的发病率激增。男女病例的性别比例为1:0.88,其中82.00%的病例涉及15-60岁年龄段的个体。商业服务人员构成受影响最大的职业群体,占总病例的20.96%。时空扫描确定了跨空间和时间的登革热病例的显着聚类,在云南南部观察到的最明显的集群,主要在2015年至2019年之间。
    云南省登革热表现为两年一次的爆发,强调加强监测的必要性,特别是在与其他地区接壤的县。
    UNASSIGNED: The goal of this study is to analyze the epidemiological patterns of dengue fever across different districts and counties in Yunnan Province from 2010 to 2021.
    UNASSIGNED: In this study, we employed joinpoint regression analysis, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and space-time scan analysis to illustrate the spatio-temporal propagation and demographic influence of dengue fever, using both graphical and tabular presentations to clearly demonstrate the findings.
    UNASSIGNED: Yunnan Province reported 14,098 cases of dengue fever during the period from 2010 to 2021. Of these, 11,513 cases were caused by local transmission, 2,566 were imported internationally, and 19 were inter-provincial imports. Seasonal trends emerged, revealing a surge in incidences during the summer and autumn months. The sex ratio of male to female cases was 1:0.88, with a significant majority of 82.00% of cases involving individuals belonging to the age group of 15-60. Commercial service workers constituted the most impacted occupational group, forming 20.96% of total cases. A spatio-temporal scan identified significant clustering of dengue fever cases across space and time, with the most pronounced cluster observed in southern Yunnan, primarily between 2015 and 2019.
    UNASSIGNED: Dengue fever in Yunnan Province manifests as biennial outbreaks, underscoring the necessity for increased surveillance, particularly in counties bordering other regions.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    这项研究采用地理和时间加权回归(GTWR)模型来评估气象要素和输入病例对登革热暴发的影响,强调边界地区这些因素的时空变异性。
    我们对云南边境地区登革热的时空分布进行了描述性分析。利用2013年至2019年的年度数据,以云南边境各县为空间单元,我们构建了一个GTWR模型来研究该地区登革热的决定因素及其时空异质性。
    GTWR模型,证明比普通最小二乘(OLS)分析更有效,在影响登革热沿云南边境传播的因素中发现了显著的时空异质性。值得注意的是,GTWR模型揭示了本地登革热发病率之间的关系存在很大差异,气象变量,以及不同县的输入病例。
    在云南边境地区,当地登革热发病率受温度影响,湿度,湿度降水,风速,和进口案件,这些因素的影响表现出显著的时空变化。
    UNASSIGNED: This study employs the Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) model to assess the impact of meteorological elements and imported cases on dengue fever outbreaks, emphasizing the spatial-temporal variability of these factors in border regions.
    UNASSIGNED: We conducted a descriptive analysis of dengue fever\'s temporal-spatial distribution in Yunnan border areas. Utilizing annual data from 2013 to 2019, with each county in the Yunnan border serving as a spatial unit, we constructed a GTWR model to investigate the determinants of dengue fever and their spatio-temporal heterogeneity in this region.
    UNASSIGNED: The GTWR model, proving more effective than Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) analysis, identified significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity in factors influencing dengue fever\'s spread along the Yunnan border. Notably, the GTWR model revealed a substantial variation in the relationship between indigenous dengue fever incidence, meteorological variables, and imported cases across different counties.
    UNASSIGNED: In the Yunnan border areas, local dengue incidence is affected by temperature, humidity, precipitation, wind speed, and imported cases, with these factors\' influence exhibiting notable spatial and temporal variation.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:痰热清注射液(TRQ)已在临床实践中用作登革热(DF)的治疗方法。然而,其功效背后的精确药理机制仍然难以捉摸。
    方法:网络药理学,分子对接,转录组测序,并通过实验评估来分析和研究TRQ对登革病毒(DENV)的抑制潜力。
    结果:我们发现TRQ抑制了人脐静脉内皮细胞中DENV的复制,Huh-7细胞,和Hep3B细胞。此外,TRQ延长了感染DF的AG129小鼠的存活时间,降低了血清和器官中的病毒载量,减轻器官损伤。随后,对TRQ进行超高效液相色谱-串联质谱分析,以鉴定与TRQ中存在的36种活性化合物相关的314种靶标.多个数据库的整合产生了47个DF相关基因。然后,通过计算网络拓扑参数(Degree),确定了DF中TRQ的15个集线器目标。基因本体论和京都百科全书的基因和基因组分析显示,这些途径主要富集在细胞因子激活和白细胞跨内皮迁移的过程中,细胞粘附分子显著富集。分子对接显示TRQ的关键活性化合物与预测的枢纽靶标之间具有良好的结合亲和力。转录组测序结果显示TRQ能在DENV感染后恢复血管细胞粘附分子-1(VCAM-1)的表达。最后,发现TRQ通过调节核因子κB(NF-κB)-细胞间细胞粘附分子1(ICAM-1)/VCAM-1轴来调节免疫状态,以及减少免疫细胞的改变,炎症因子分泌,血管通透性,和DENV感染引起的出血倾向。
    结论:我们的研究表明,TRQ通过调节NF-κB-ICAM-1/VCAM-1轴对DF发挥治疗作用。
    BACKGROUND: Tanreqing injection (TRQ) has been employed in clinical practice as a treatment for dengue fever (DF). Nevertheless, the precise pharmacological mechanism underlying its efficacy remains elusive.
    METHODS: Network pharmacology, molecular docking, transcriptome sequencing, and experimental evaluation were employed to analyze and study the inhibitory potential of TRQ against dengue virus (DENV).
    RESULTS: We found that TRQ inhibited the replication of DENV in human umbilical vein endothelial cells, Huh-7 cells, and Hep3B cells. In addition, TRQ prolonged the survival duration of AG129 mice infected with DF, decreased the viral load in serum and organs, and alleviated organ damage. Subsequently, ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry analysis of TRQ was performed to identify 314 targets associated with 36 active compounds present in TRQ. Integration of multiple databases yielded 47 DF-related genes. Then, 15 hub targets of TRQ in DF were determined by calculating the network topology parameters (Degree). Gene Ontology and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes analyses revealed that these pathways were primarily enriched in the processes of cytokine activation and leukocyte cross-endothelial migration, with significant enrichment of cell adhesion molecules. Molecular docking revealed favorable binding affinity between TRQ\'s key active compounds and the predicted hub targets. Transcriptome sequencing results showed TRQ\'s ability to restore the expression of vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 (VCAM-1) post-DENV infection. Finally, TRQ was found to modulate the immune status by regulating the nuclear factor kappa-B (NF-κB)- intercellular cell adhesion molecule-1 (ICAM-1)/VCAM-1 axis, as well as reduce immune cell alterations, inflammatory factor secretion, vascular permeability, and bleeding tendencies induced by DENV infection.
    CONCLUSIONS: Our research suggests that TRQ exerts therapeutic effects on DF by regulating the NF-κB-ICAM-1/VCAM-1 axis.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    登革热是由四种登革热刻板印象(黄病毒:黄病毒科)之一引起的病毒性疾病,主要由白纹伊蚊(Skuse)和埃及伊蚊(L.).为了保障公众健康,进行调查以检查有利于这些物种存在的因素至关重要。我们的研究调查了旁遮普省巴克卡尔地区四个城镇的42个议会,通过检查含有死水的人造或自然栖息地。首先,地区卫生部门的挨家挨户监测小组被分配到每个委员会,以监测伊蚊物种和登革热病例。第二,通过监测工作收集数据,并实施了验证程序,验证的数据由第三方验证团队上传到登革热跟踪系统。第三,对数据进行分析,以确定影响登革热病例的因素。研究结果表明:(1)主要是,在有文献记载的人中发现了这种情况。(2)与蒸发空气冷却器和轮胎店相关的容器占伊蚊发展地点的约30%。(4)温度的变化是所观察到的伊蚊蚊子发育部位数量差异的约45%。(5)实施登革热预防措施,使伊蚊阳性容器减少50%,在2019年至2020年期间,报告的登革热病例显着下降了70%,而大多数报告的病例来自外部。伊蚊控制措施大大减少了蚊子的数量,并降低了媒介与病毒的相互作用。值得注意的是,通过先进和有效的伊蚊控制努力消除了当地登革热传播,强调需要持续监测和根除受影响地区的幼虫栖息地。
    Dengue fever is a viral disease caused by one of four dengue stereotypes (Flavivirus: Flaviviridae) that are primarily transmitted by Aedes albopictus (Skuse) and Aedes aegypti (L.). To safeguard public health, it is crucial to conduct surveys that examine the factors favouring the presence of these species. Our study surveyed 42 councils across four towns within the Bhakkar district of Punjab Province, by inspecting man-made or natural habitats containing standing water. First, door-to-door surveillance teams from the district health department were assigned to each council to surveillance Aedes species and dengue cases. Second, data collection through surveillance efforts, and validation procedures were implemented, and the verified data was uploaded onto the Dengue Tracking System by Third Party Validation teams. Third, data were analysed to identify factors influencing dengue fever cases. The findings demonstrated the following: (1) Predominantly, instances were discerned among individuals who had a documented history of having travelled beyond the confines of the province. (2) Containers associated with evaporative air coolers and tyre shops were responsible for approximately 30% of the Aedes developmental sites. (4) Variability in temperature was responsible for approximately 45% of the observed differences in the quantity of recorded Aedes mosquito developmental sites. (5) Implementation of dengue prevention initiatives precipitated a 50% reduction in Aedes-positive containers, alongside a notable 70% decline in reported cases of dengue fever during the period spanning 2019 to 2020, while the majority of reported cases were of external origin. Aedes control measures substantially curtailed mosquito populations and lowered vector-virus interactions. Notably, local dengue transmission was eliminated through advanced and effective Aedes control efforts, emphasising the need for persistent surveillance and eradication of larval habitats in affected regions.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:这项研究旨在使用结合气象数据的机器学习模型来改善新加坡的登革热预测。通过研究天气变化与登革热传播之间的复杂关系来解决当前方法上的局限性。
    方法:使用2012年至2022年的每周登革热病例和气象数据,使用各种机器学习算法对数据进行了预处理和分析,包括一般线性模型(GLM),支持向量机(SVM)梯度增压机(GBM),决策树(DT)随机森林(RF),和极限梯度提升(XGBoost)算法。性能指标,如平均绝对误差(MAE)、均方根误差(RMSE),并且采用R-平方(R2)。
    结果:从2012年到2022年,共有164,333例登革热病例。新加坡的登革热病例数量起伏不定,在2020年达到峰值,并在3月至7月之间显示出强烈的季节性。对气象数据点的分析强调了某些气候变量与登革热暴发之间的联系。相关分析表明,登革热病例与太阳辐射等特定天气因素之间存在显着关联,太阳能,紫外线指数。对于疾病预测,XGBoost模型表现出最佳性能,MAE=89.12,RMSE=156.07,R2=0.83,确定时间为主要因素,而19个关键预测因子显示出与登革热传播的非线性关联。这强调了环境条件的重要作用,包括云层和降雨,在登革热传播中。
    结论:在过去的十年中,气象因素对新加坡登革热传播有显著影响。这项研究,使用XGBoost模型,在理解登革热的复杂动态时,突出了时间和云层覆盖等关键预测因素。通过采用先进的算法,我们的研究提供了登革热预测模型的见解和仔细选择模型的重要性。这些结果可以为公共卫生策略提供信息,旨在改善新加坡和可比地区的登革热控制。
    OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to improve dengue fever predictions in Singapore using a machine learning model that incorporates meteorological data, addressing the current methodological limitations by examining the intricate relationships between weather changes and dengue transmission.
    METHODS: Using weekly dengue case and meteorological data from 2012 to 2022, the data was preprocessed and analyzed using various machine learning algorithms, including General Linear Model (GLM), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithms. Performance metrics such as Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and R-squared (R2) were employed.
    RESULTS: From 2012 to 2022, there was a total of 164,333 cases of dengue fever. Singapore witnessed a fluctuating number of dengue cases, peaking notably in 2020 and revealing a strong seasonality between March and July. An analysis of meteorological data points highlighted connections between certain climate variables and dengue fever outbreaks. The correlation analyses suggested significant associations between dengue cases and specific weather factors such as solar radiation, solar energy, and UV index. For disease predictions, the XGBoost model showed the best performance with an MAE = 89.12, RMSE = 156.07, and R2 = 0.83, identifying time as the primary factor, while 19 key predictors showed non-linear associations with dengue transmission. This underscores the significant role of environmental conditions, including cloud cover and rainfall, in dengue propagation.
    CONCLUSIONS: In the last decade, meteorological factors have significantly influenced dengue transmission in Singapore. This research, using the XGBoost model, highlights the key predictors like time and cloud cover in understanding dengue\'s complex dynamics. By employing advanced algorithms, our study offers insights into dengue predictive models and the importance of careful model selection. These results can inform public health strategies, aiming to improve dengue control in Singapore and comparable regions.
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