multicriteria decision analysis

多准则决策分析
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:全基因组测序(WGS)对血癌管理具有转化潜力,但报销受到相对于额外成本的不确定收益的阻碍。本研究采用情景规划和多准则决策分析(MCDA)来评估利益相关者对替代报销途径的偏好,告知未来健康技术评估(HTA)提交的WGS在血癌中的应用。
    方法:通过文献检索确定了影响血液癌症WGS报销的关键因素。使用形态学方法开发了描述HTA的WGS各种证据特征的假设方案。网上调查,结合MCDA重量,旨在收集利益相关者的偏好(消费者/患者,临床医生/卫生专业人员,行业代表,健康经济学家,和HTA委员会成员)对于这些情况。调查评估了参与者对每种情况下WGS报销的批准,场景偏好是使用几何平均方法确定的,应用算法通过解决不一致的响应来提高可靠性和精度。
    结果:19名参与者提供了完整的调查答复,主要是临床医生或卫生专业人员(n=6;32%),消费者/患者和行业代表(均为n=5;26%)。“WGS结果对患者护理的临床影响”是最关键的标准(标准权重为0.25),其次是“WGS的诊断准确性”(0.21),“WGS的成本效益”(0.19),“WGS后报销治疗的可用性”(0.16),和“基于可操作的WGS结果的报销治疗资格标准”和“WGS成本比较”(均为0.09)。参与者更喜欢有大量临床证据的场景,获得报销的有针对性的治疗,成本效益低于每质量调整生命年(QALY)50,000美元,和相对于标准分子测试的可负担性。最初反对补偿,直到达到标准测试的同等成本和更好的治疗可及性等标准。
    结论:付款人通常强调可接受的成本效益,但许多变种的强有力的临床证据和与标准测试相当的成本可能会推动WGS的积极报销决定.
    BACKGROUND: Whole genome sequencing (WGS) has transformative potential for blood cancer management, but reimbursement is hindered by uncertain benefits relative to added costs. This study employed scenario planning and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to evaluate stakeholders\' preferences for alternative reimbursement pathways, informing future health technology assessment (HTA) submission of WGS in blood cancer.
    METHODS: Key factors influencing WGS reimbursement in blood cancers were identified through a literature search. Hypothetical scenarios describing various evidential characteristics of WGS for HTA were developed using the morphological approach. An online survey, incorporating MCDA weights, was designed to gather stakeholder preferences (consumers/patients, clinicians/health professionals, industry representatives, health economists, and HTA committee members) for these scenarios. The survey assessed participants\' approval of WGS reimbursement for each scenario, and scenario preferences were determined using the geometric mean method, applying an algorithm to improve reliability and precision by addressing inconsistent responses.
    RESULTS: Nineteen participants provided complete survey responses, primarily clinicians or health professionals (n = 6; 32 %), consumers/patients and industry representatives (both at n = 5; 26 %). \"Clinical impact of WGS results on patient care\" was the most critical criterion (criteria weight of 0.25), followed by \"diagnostic accuracy of WGS\" (0.21), \"cost-effectiveness of WGS\" (0.19), \"availability of reimbursed treatment after WGS\" (0.16), and \"eligibility criteria for reimbursed treatment based on actionable WGS results\" and \"cost comparison of WGS\" (both at 0.09). Participants preferred a scenario with substantial clinical evidence, high access to reimbursed targeted treatment, cost-effectiveness below $50,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained, and affordability relative to standard molecular tests. Reimbursement was initially opposed until criteria such as equal cost to standard tests and better treatment accessibility were met.
    CONCLUSIONS: Payers commonly emphasize acceptable cost-effectiveness, but strong clinical evidence for many variants and comparable costs to standard tests are likely to drive positive reimbursement decisions for WGS.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:本研究开发了一个优先次序框架,以使用多标准决策分析(MCDA)方法来帮助澳大利亚卫生技术评估(HTA)中的医疗保健资金决策。
    方法:通过文献调查对HTA的MCDA框架进行了综述,以确定初始标准和每个标准中的水平。咨询了主要利益攸关方和专家,以确认这些标准和水平。与卫生部的政策制定者一起进行了使用1000Minds©的联合分析,以建立排名标准和权重分数。蒙特卡罗模拟用于检查结果对影响排名和权重分数的因素的敏感性。然后将MCDA应用于六个长期护理模型或技术项目的示例,以证明这种方法的性能。
    结果:五个标准(临床疗效/有效性;安全性和耐受性;病情的严重程度;质量/不确定性;对医疗费用的直接影响)始终被医疗决策者评为最高。在标准中,患者层面的健康结果被认为是最重要的,其次是社会和道德价值观。分析是稳健的,以告知参数的不确定性。
    结论:这项研究开发了一种MCDA工具,该工具有效地整合了HTA审查的关键优先事项,反映澳大利亚医疗保健利益相关者的价值观和偏好。虽然该工具旨在使评估过程与健康益处更紧密地保持一致,它还强调了考虑其他标准的重要性。
    OBJECTIVE: This study develops a prioritization framework to aid healthcare funding decision making in health technology assessment (HTA) in Australia using a multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach.
    METHODS: MCDA frameworks for HTAs were reviewed through literature survey to identify the initial criteria and levels within each criterion. Key stakeholders and experts were consulted to confirm these criteria and levels. A conjoint analysis using 1000Minds was undertaken with policy makers from the Department of Health to establish ranking criteria and weighting scores. Monte Carlo simulations were used to examine the sensitivity of findings to factors affecting the ranking and weighting scores. The MCDA was then applied to 6 examples of chronic care models or technologies projects to demonstrate the performance of this approach.
    RESULTS: Five criteria (clinical efficacy/effectiveness, safety and tolerability, severity of the condition, quality/uncertainty, and direct impact on healthcare costs) were consistently ranked highest by healthcare decision makers. Among the criteria, patient-level health outcomes were considered the most important, followed by social and ethical values. The analyses were robust to inform the uncertainty in the parameter.
    CONCLUSIONS: This study has developed an MCDA tool that effectively integrates key priorities for HTA reviews, reflecting the values and preferences of healthcare stakeholders in Australia. Although this tool aims to align the assessment process more closely with health benefits, it also highlights the importance of considering other criteria.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:本系统文献综述旨在通过实施多标准决策分析(MCDA),探索将社会偏好纳入罕见病(RD)和孤儿药(OD)的健康技术评估(HTA)的全球经验。离散选择实验(DCE),和人员权衡(PTO)方法,在其他人中。
    方法:2021年4月使用PubMed对文献进行了系统的搜索,科克伦,Embase,和Scopus数据库。审查阶段使用系统审查和荟萃分析方法的首选报告项目。最后,《促进卫生服务研究实施行动框架》被用来讨论在RD背景下实施这些文书的问题。
    结果:共有33篇文章符合纳入标准。这些研究使用MCDA(n=17)测量了作为HTA一部分的RD和OD的社会偏好,DCE(n=8),和PTO(n=4),在其他方法中(n=4)。这些发现,患者和临床医生并没有根据稀有性优先考虑资金。只有OD显示成效及改善生活质量,公众才愿意拨款,将疾病严重程度作为相关因素,未满足的健康需求,和生活质量。相反,HTA机构专家更喜欢他们目前的方法,更加重视成本效益和证据质量,尽管他们对药物审查过程的公平性表示担忧。
    结论:MCDA,PTO,和DCE是评估HTA对RD和OD的社会偏好的有用和透明的方法。然而,他们的方法论局限性,例如任意选择标准,主观评分方法,框架效果,加权适应,和价值计量模型,可能会使实施具有挑战性。
    OBJECTIVE: This systematic literature review aimed to explore experiences worldwide of societal preferences integration into health technology assessments (HTAs) for rare diseases (RDs) and orphan drugs (ODs) through the implementation of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA), discrete choice experiments (DCEs), and person trade-off (PTO) methods, among others.
    METHODS: A systematic search of the literature was conducted in April 2021 using PubMed, Cochrane, Embase, and Scopus databases. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses approach was used for the review phases. Finally, the Promoting Action on Research Implementation in Health Services framework was used to discuss the implementation of these instruments in the RD context.
    RESULTS: A total of 33 articles met the inclusion criteria. The studies measured societal preferences for RD and OD as part of HTA using MCDA (n = 17), DCE (n = 8), and PTO (n = 4), among other methods (n = 4). These found that patients and clinicians do not prioritize funding based on rarity. The public is willing to allocate funds only if the OD demonstrates effectiveness and improves the quality of life, considering as relevant factors disease severity, unmet health needs, and quality of life. Conversely, HTA agency experts preferred their current approach, placing more weight on cost-effectiveness and evidence quality, even though they expressed concern about the fairness of the drug review process.
    CONCLUSIONS: MCDA, PTO, and DCE are helpful and transparent methods for assessing societal preferences in HTA for RD and OD. However, their methodological limitations, such as arbitrary criteria selection, subjective scoring methods, framing effects, weighting adaptation, and value measurement models, could make implementation challenging.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    水生栖息地为野生和家养物种之间的流感传播提供了桥梁。然而,水源具有高度可变的物理化学和生态特征,影响禽流感病毒(AIV)的稳定性。因此,AIV在环境中的生存或传播风险差异很大,尚未得到充分研究。在这项研究中,我们使用多准则决策分析(MCDA)确定冬季在中部墨西哥高原(北美)的野生/家禽鸟类界面中AIV的水传播和环境持久性的风险。从公共访问数据库中总共选择了13种生态流行病学因素来进行风险评估。MCDA表明,Atarasquillo湿地在一月份表现出更高的持久性风险。同样,在这个野生-家养界面的大多数后院家禽养殖场都存在较高的持久性风险(50%)。我们的结果表明,与废水相比,饮用水可能代表了AIV持久性的更有利环境。此外,几乎所有的后院家禽养殖场都有中等或高度的水媒传播风险,尤其是靠近水体的养殖场。Atarasquillo湿地上的野生生物/家禽界面具有生态流行病学因素,例如在洪水多发地区存在农场,家禽获得室外水,以及在多种动物物种中使用饮用水槽,这可能会增强AIV的水媒传播。这些发现强调了了解多种因素对AIV生态学的影响对于早期干预和长期控制策略的相关性。
    Aquatic habitats provide a bridge for influenza transmission among wild and domestic species. However, water sources pose highly variable physicochemical and ecological characteristics that affect avian influenza virus (AIV) stability. Therefore, the risk of survival or transmissibility of AIV in the environment is quite variable and has been understudied. In this study, we determine the risk of waterborne transmission and environmental persistence of AIV in a wild/domestic bird interface in the Central Mexico plateau (North America) during the winter season using a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). A total of 13 eco-epidemiological factors were selected from public-access databases to develop the risk assessment. The MCDA showed that the Atarasquillo wetland presents a higher persistence risk in January. Likewise, most of the backyard poultry farms at this wild-domestic interface present a high persistence risk (50%). Our results suggest that drinking water may represent a more enabling environment for AIV persistence in contrast with wastewater. Moreover, almost all backyard poultry farms evidence a moderate or high risk of waterborne transmission especially farms close to water bodies. The wildlife/domestic bird interface on the Atarasquillo wetland holds eco-epidemiological factors such as the presence of farms in flood-prone areas, the poultry access to outdoor water, and the use of drinking-water troughs among multiple animal species that may enhance waterborne transmission of AIV. These findings highlight the relevance of understanding the influence of multiple factors on AIV ecology for early intervention and long-term control strategies.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    消费者可能会接触到许多食源性生物危害,这些危害会导致结果和发病率不同的疾病,因此,代表不同水平的公共卫生负担。为了帮助法国风险管理者对这些危害进行排名,并优先考虑食品安全行动,我们制定了三步走的方法。第一步是制定法国大陆健康关注的食源性危害清单。从335种人类致病生物制剂的初始列表中,“保留的危险”的最终清单包括24种危险,包括12种细菌(包括细菌毒素和代谢产物),3种病毒和9种寄生虫。第二步是收集数据以估计疾病负担(发病率,残疾调整寿命年)在两个时间段内通过食物与这些危害相关:2008-2013年和2014-2019年。根据所考虑的时期,不同危险的等级略有变化。第三步是使用ELECTREIII方法根据多标准决策支持模型对危险进行排名。使用了三个排名标准,其中两个反映了影响的严重程度(生命损失的年数和因残疾而损失的年数),一个反映了疾病的可能性(发病率)。多准则决策分析方法通过不同的权重集以及与数据相关的不确定性来考虑风险管理者的偏好。该方法和收集的数据可以估算法国大陆食源性生物危害的健康负担,并为卫生当局确定优先顺序清单。
    Consumers can be exposed to many foodborne biological hazards that cause diseases with varying outcomes and incidence and, therefore, represent different levels of public health burden. To help the French risk managers to rank these hazards and to prioritize food safety actions, we have developed a three-step approach. The first step was to develop a list of foodborne hazards of health concern in mainland France. From an initial list of 335 human pathogenic biological agents, the final list of \"retained hazards\" consists of 24 hazards, including 12 bacteria (including bacterial toxins and metabolites), 3 viruses and 9 parasites. The second step was to collect data to estimate the disease burden (incidence, Disability Adjusted Life Years) associated with these hazards through food during two time periods: 2008-2013 and 2014-2019. The ranks of the different hazards changed slightly according to the considered period. The third step was the ranking of hazards according to a multicriteria decision support model using the ELECTRE III method. Three ranking criteria were used, where two reflect the severity of the effects (Years of life lost and Years lost due to disability) and one reflects the likelihood (incidence) of the disease. The multicriteria decision analysis approach takes into account the preferences of the risk managers through different sets of weights and the uncertainties associated with the data. The method and the data collected allowed to estimate the health burden of foodborne biological hazards in mainland France and to define a prioritization list for the health authorities.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:卫生技术评估(HTA)没有系统地考虑儿童和青少年的情况和需求。为了补充HTA流程,我们的目标是使用多准则决策分析(MCDA)方法开发适合儿童的价值评估框架.
    方法:我们分多个阶段构建了基于MCDA的模型,以创建儿童健康技术综合评估(CATCH)框架。使用改进的德尔菲过程,利益相关者具有广泛的学科和地理差异(n=23),我们改进了先前生成的标准,并开发了基于等级的权重.我们建立了一个与标准相关的评分标准,用于评估新药的增量益处。三名临床医生通过对九种药物进行飞行员评分来独立评估理解力。然后,我们通过专家小组的结构化审议(n=10)验证了CATCH的两种儿童癌症疗法,获得个人分数,共识分数和口头反馈。分析包括描述性统计,专题分析,探索性分歧指数(DI),和敏感性分析。
    结果:修改后的Delphi过程产生了10个标准,基于绝对重要性/相关性和商定重要性(中位数DI=0.34):有效性,儿童特定健康相关的生活质量,疾病严重程度,未满足的需求,治疗安全,Equity,家庭影响,生命历程发展,Rarity,公平分享生活。试点评分导致调整的标准定义和更精确的分数缩放指南。验证小组成员认可框架的关键值修饰符。他们的个人预分模式与审议性共识得分密切相关。
    结论:我们迭代地开发了一个价值评估框架,该框架涵盖了儿童特定健康和非健康收益的维度。CATCH可以提高HTA决策对加拿大儿童和可比卫生系统的丰富性和相关性。
    OBJECTIVE: A health technology assessment (HTA) does not systematically account for the circumstances and needs of children and youth. To supplement HTA processes, we aimed to develop a child-tailored value assessment framework using a multicriteria decision analysis approach.
    METHODS: We constructed a multicriteria-decision-analysis-based model in multiple phases to create the Comprehensive Assessment of Technologies for Child Health (CATCH) framework. Using a modified Delphi process with stakeholders having broad disciplinary and geographic variation (N = 23), we refined previously generated criteria and developed rank-based weights. We established a criterion-pertinent scoring rubric for assessing incremental benefits of new drugs. Three clinicians independently assessed comprehension by pilotscoring 9 drugs. We then validated CATCH for 2 childhood cancer therapies through structured deliberation with an expert panel (N = 10), obtaining individual scores, consensus scores, and verbal feedback. Analyses included descriptive statistics, thematic analysis, exploratory disagreement indices, and sensitivity analysis.
    RESULTS: The modified Delphi process yielded 10 criteria, based on absolute importance/relevance and agreed importance (median disagreement indices = 0.34): Effectiveness, Child-specific Health-related Quality of Life, Disease Severity, Unmet Need, Therapeutic Safety, Equity, Family Impacts, Life-course Development, Rarity, and Fair Share of Life. Pilot scoring resulted in adjusted criteria definitions and more precise score-scaling guidelines. Validation panelists endorsed the framework\'s key modifiers of value. Modes of their individual prescores aligned closely with deliberative consensus scores.
    CONCLUSIONS: We iteratively developed a value assessment framework that captures dimensions of child-specific health and nonhealth gains. CATCH could improve the richness and relevance of HTA decision making for children in Canada and comparable health systems.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:在基于医院的健康技术评估的背景下采用基因组技术提出了多种实践和组织挑战。
    目的:本研究旨在帮助葡京学会(IPOLisboa)决策者分析哪些急性髓细胞性白血病(AML)基因组组签约策略具有最高的性价比。
    方法:量身定制,开发了三步走的方法,其中包括:绘制AML患者的临床路径,使用MACBETH方法构建多标准价值模型,以评估每个基因组测试签约策略,并通过蒙特卡罗模拟建模估算每个策略的成本。三种签约策略的物有所值-“护理标准(S1),\“\”基础一血红素试验(S2),”和“新的诊断测试基础设施(S3)”-然后通过战略格局和物有所值图进行分析。
    结果:实施更大的基因面板(S2)并投资于新的诊断测试基础设施(S3)被证明会产生额外的价值,但与护理标准相比,也需要额外的费用,通过提供额外的遗传信息来解释额外的价值,从而实现更个性化的治疗和患者监测(S2和S3),获得更广泛的临床试验(S2),和更完整的数据库来加强研究(S3)。
    结论:拟议的多重方法为IPOLisboa决策者提供了关于每个战略的价值的全面和有见地的信息,能够就是否从当前战略S1转向其他竞争战略进行知情讨论。
    BACKGROUND: The adoption of genomic technologies in the context of hospital-based health technology assessment presents multiple practical and organizational challenges.
    OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assist the Instituto Português de Oncologia de Lisboa Francisco Gentil (IPO Lisboa) decision makers in analyzing which acute myeloid leukemia (AML) genomic panel contracting strategies had the highest value-for-money.
    METHODS: A tailored, three-step approach was developed, which included: mapping clinical pathways of AML patients, building a multicriteria value model using the MACBETH approach to evaluate each genomic testing contracting strategy, and estimating the cost of each strategy through Monte Carlo simulation modeling. The value-for-money of three contracting strategies - \"Standard of care (S1),\" \"FoundationOne Heme test (S2),\" and \"New diagnostic test infrastructure (S3)\" - was then analyzed through strategy landscape and value-for-money graphs.
    RESULTS: Implementing a larger gene panel (S2) and investing in a new diagnostic test infrastructure (S3) were shown to generate extra value, but also to entail extra costs in comparison with the standard of care, with the extra value being explained by making available additional genetic information that enables more personalized treatment and patient monitoring (S2 and S3), access to a broader range of clinical trials (S2), and more complete databases to potentiate research (S3).
    CONCLUSIONS: The proposed multimethodology provided IPO Lisboa decision makers with comprehensive and insightful information regarding each strategy\'s value-for-money, enabling an informed discussion on whether to move from the current Strategy S1 to other competing strategies.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目标:健康福利包(HBPs),它定义了可以免费或以较低的成本提供的特定卫生服务,以适应公共收入,30多年来一直被建议在资源有限的环境中最大限度地提高人口健康。然而,在定义和操作HBP方面仍然存在差距。我们提出了设计和优先排序方法的组合以及实际策略,以改善马拉维HBP未来迭代的实施。
    方法:为马拉维第三卫生部门战略计划制定HBP,我们将成本效益分析与定量相结合,咨询多准则决策分析。在整个发展过程中,我们记录了改进HBP设计和应用的挑战和机遇。
    结果:原发性和继发性HBP包括115项干预措施。然而,HBP的定义只是朝着集中有限资源迈出的一步,以功能操作为最关键的组成部分。由于援助协调方面的挑战以及为HBP提供的不可替代的垂直捐助者资金的错位,而没有考虑到卫生系统的复杂性和相互关联性,因此,以前的HBP的全面实施受到了限制。改进应用的机会包括创建补充的最低卫生服务一揽子计划,以通过综合方法指导总体资源投入。
    结论:我们认为,考虑价值的扩展参与式HBP方法,股本,和社会考虑,随着向在各级护理中提供综合卫生服务包的转变,将提高在实现全民健康覆盖的过程中使用稀缺资源的效率。
    OBJECTIVE: Health benefits packages (HBPs), which define specific health services that can be offered for free or at a reduced cost to fit within public revenues, have been recommended for over 30 years to maximize population health in resource-limited settings. However, there remain gaps in defining and operationalizing HBPs. We propose a combination of design and prioritization methods along with practical strategies to improve the implementation of future iterations of the HBP in Malawi.
    METHODS: For HBP development for Malawi\'s Third Health Sector Strategic Plan, we combined cost-effectiveness analysis with a quantitative, consultative multicriteria decision analysis. Throughout the process of development, we documented challenges and opportunities to improve HBP design and application.
    RESULTS: The primary and secondary HBP included 115 interventions. However, the definition of an HBP is just one step toward focusing limited resources, with functional operationalization as the most critical component. Full implementation of previous HBPs has been limited by challenges in aid coordination with the misalignment of nonfungible vertical donor funding for the HBP without accounting for the complexity and interconnectedness of the health system. Opportunities for improved application include creation of a complementary minimum health service package to guide overall resource inputs through an integrative approach.
    CONCLUSIONS: We believe that expanded participatory HBP methods that consider value, equity, and social considerations, along with a shift to providing integrated health service packages at all levels of care, will improve the efficiency of using scarce resources along the journey to universal health coverage.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    儿童健康是中国重要的公共卫生问题,中国政府一直高度重视儿童保健。随着近几十年来我国一系列医疗卫生改革的实施,儿童健康状况逐年改善。目的综合评价近年来我国医疗卫生改革措施是否有效促进了我国儿童保健事业的发展,为今后我国儿童保健政策的决策提供理论支持。方法从《中国卫生统计年鉴》中选取6项指标。基于多准则决策分析(MCDA)算法,研究中应用了三种不同的评价方法,它们是通过与理想解(TOPSIS)方法相似来进行订单偏好的加权技术,加权秩和比(RSR)方法,和模糊综合评价(FCE)。通过熵权法客观地计算了各指标的权重。进行了敏感性分析,以验证排名结果的稳定性和准确性。结果不同评价方法计算的各年儿童保健等级值不完全相同,但总体趋势是一致的,从2000年到2020年,中国的儿童保健水平逐年提高。前5名是2016-2020年的排名,后5名是2000-2004年的排名。结论医疗卫生改革实施的政策措施,以及改善卫生条件,健康食物和水的供应,等。,在过去的20年里,共同促进了中国儿童保健的发展,为今后促进儿童保健的政策制定提供科学的理论依据。
    Child health is an important public health issue in China and the Chinese government always attached great importance to child health care. With the implementation of a series of medical and health reforms in China in recent decades, the status of child health improved year by year. Objectives This study aims to comprehensively evaluate if the measures implemented in the medical and health reforms effectively promoted the development of Chinese child health care in recent years and provide theoretical support for future decision-making on the policies of child health care in China. Methods A total of six indicators were selected from the China Health Statistics Yearbook. Based on the multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) algorithm, three different evaluation methods were applied in the study, which are the weighted technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS) method, the weighted rank-sum ratio (RSR) method, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE). Each indicator\'s weight was calculated by the entropy weight methods objectively. The sensitivity analysis was conducted to validate the stability and accuracy of the rank results. Results The results indicated that the rank values of each year\'s child health care calculated by the different evaluation methods were not exactly the same, but the overall trend is consistent which is that child health care in China improved year by year from 2000 to 2020. The top 5 were ranked from 2016-2020 and the bottom 5 were ranked from 2000-2004. Conclusions The results indicated that the policies and measures implemented in the medical and health reforms, as well as improved sanitation conditions, availability of healthy food and water, etc., have jointly promoted the development of child health care in China in the past 20 years, providing a scientific theoretical basis for future policy-making to promote child health care.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    世界面临着各种自然灾害的增加。由于人口压力大和气候变化强度大,沿海地区被认为是最脆弱的地区之一。地中海国家拥有世界上最容易燃烧的生态系统之一,最容易受到洪水袭击的地方之一,并且在欧盟内的侵蚀率最高。因此,这项研究的目的是在克罗地亚为萨利定居点(Dugiotok岛)开发第一个多危害易感性模型。多危险易感性模型(MHSM)的创建将地理空间技术(GST)的应用与本地感知调查相结合。该方法包括两个主要步骤:(1)创建个体危险敏感性模型(土壤侵蚀,野火,洪水),(2)总体危险敏感性建模。多标准GIS分析和层次分析法用于创建个体危害模型。用于创建模型的标准(32)源自非常高分辨率(VHR)模型。创建了MHSM的两个版本:1)具有相等加权系数的所有标准,以及2)基于公众感知确定的加权系数。根据MHSM1,大多数研究区域(58%)中度易受多种危害。高度和非常高度易感的地区占流域的27%,并且大多位于道路和房屋附近。MHSM2显示与MHSM1相似的结果。公众认为研究区域最容易受到野火的影响。野火点火风险等级为中等(3.00),标准偏差为1.16。洪水风险排名较低(2.78),标准偏差为1.15。土壤的风险最差(2.24),标准偏差为0.91。公众感知与GIS-MCDA灾害敏感性模型之间的最显着差异与土壤侵蚀有关。然而,根据研究区最近的土壤侵蚀痕迹,通过ROC曲线证实了土壤侵蚀模型的准确性。提出的多危险易感性建模的方法框架可以应用,稍作修改,其他地中海国家。
    The world has been facing an increase in various natural hazards. The coastal regions are recognized as one of the most vulnerable due to high population pressure and climate change intensity. Mediterranean countries have one of the most burnable ecosystems in the world, one of the most exposed to pluvial floods, and have the highest erosion rates within the EU. Therefore, the aim of this study was to develop the first multihazard susceptibility model in Croatia for the Sali settlement (island of Dugi otok). The creation of a multi-hazard susceptibility model (MHSM) combined the application of geospatial technology (GST) with a local perception survey. The methodology consisted of two main steps: (1) creating individual hazard susceptibility models (soil erosion, wildfires, pluvial floods), and (2) overall hazard susceptibility modeling. Multicriterial GIS analyses and the Analytical Hierarchy Process were used to create individual hazard models. Criteria used (32) to create models are derived from very-high-resolution (VHR) models. Two versions of MHSM are created: 1) all criteria with equal weighting coefficients and 2) weight coefficients determined based on public perception. According to MHSM 1, most of the research (58%) area is moderately susceptible to multiple hazards. Highly and very highly susceptible areas are 27% of the drainage basin and are mostly located near roads and houses. MHSM 2 reveals similar results to MHSM 1. The public perceives that the research area is the most susceptible to wildfires. The wildfire ignition risk is ranked as moderate (3.00) with a standard deviation of 1.16. Pluvial flood risk is ranked low (2.78), with a standard deviation of 1.15. The risk of soil is most inferior (2.24) with a standard deviation of 0.91. The the most significant difference between public perception and the GIS-MCDA model of hazard susceptibility is related to soil erosion. However, the accuracy of the soil erosion model was confirmed by ROC curves based on recent traces of soil erosion in the research area. The proposed methodological framework of multi-hazard susceptibility modeling can be applied, with minor modifications, to other Mediterranean countries.
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