multicriteria decision analysis

多准则决策分析
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    儿童健康是中国重要的公共卫生问题,中国政府一直高度重视儿童保健。随着近几十年来我国一系列医疗卫生改革的实施,儿童健康状况逐年改善。目的综合评价近年来我国医疗卫生改革措施是否有效促进了我国儿童保健事业的发展,为今后我国儿童保健政策的决策提供理论支持。方法从《中国卫生统计年鉴》中选取6项指标。基于多准则决策分析(MCDA)算法,研究中应用了三种不同的评价方法,它们是通过与理想解(TOPSIS)方法相似来进行订单偏好的加权技术,加权秩和比(RSR)方法,和模糊综合评价(FCE)。通过熵权法客观地计算了各指标的权重。进行了敏感性分析,以验证排名结果的稳定性和准确性。结果不同评价方法计算的各年儿童保健等级值不完全相同,但总体趋势是一致的,从2000年到2020年,中国的儿童保健水平逐年提高。前5名是2016-2020年的排名,后5名是2000-2004年的排名。结论医疗卫生改革实施的政策措施,以及改善卫生条件,健康食物和水的供应,等。,在过去的20年里,共同促进了中国儿童保健的发展,为今后促进儿童保健的政策制定提供科学的理论依据。
    Child health is an important public health issue in China and the Chinese government always attached great importance to child health care. With the implementation of a series of medical and health reforms in China in recent decades, the status of child health improved year by year. Objectives This study aims to comprehensively evaluate if the measures implemented in the medical and health reforms effectively promoted the development of Chinese child health care in recent years and provide theoretical support for future decision-making on the policies of child health care in China. Methods A total of six indicators were selected from the China Health Statistics Yearbook. Based on the multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) algorithm, three different evaluation methods were applied in the study, which are the weighted technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS) method, the weighted rank-sum ratio (RSR) method, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE). Each indicator\'s weight was calculated by the entropy weight methods objectively. The sensitivity analysis was conducted to validate the stability and accuracy of the rank results. Results The results indicated that the rank values of each year\'s child health care calculated by the different evaluation methods were not exactly the same, but the overall trend is consistent which is that child health care in China improved year by year from 2000 to 2020. The top 5 were ranked from 2016-2020 and the bottom 5 were ranked from 2000-2004. Conclusions The results indicated that the policies and measures implemented in the medical and health reforms, as well as improved sanitation conditions, availability of healthy food and water, etc., have jointly promoted the development of child health care in China in the past 20 years, providing a scientific theoretical basis for future policy-making to promote child health care.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    金属矿区(MMAs)周围的土壤重金属(HM)污染是全球关注的问题,需要一种具有成本效益的生态风险评估(ERA)方法进行预防性管理。传统ERA,将环境HM浓度与基准进行比较,在实地调查和化学分析方面是劳动和成本密集型的,这挑战了众多MMA的管理需求。在这项研究中,开发了一种基于暴露和生态情景的前瞻性生态风险评估方法(ERA-EES),以在现场采样之前预测MMA周围的生态风险水平(低/中/高)。选取与土壤HM暴露相关的5个暴露情景指标和3个反映土壤生物受体响应的生态情景指标,结合层次分析法和模糊综合评价方法进行ERA-EES开发。在中国使用67个MMA进行的案例应用和绩效评估表明,当参考潜在生态风险指数(PERI)水平时,ERA-EES方法具有总体有效和保守的性能。准确度为0.87,kappa系数为0.7,PERI中的低或中生态风险水平被分类为ERA-EES中的高水平。总的来说,选定的情景指标可以有效地反映采矿活动对土壤HM污染的风险水平。此外,应该为有色金属的MMA付出更多的监管努力,地下和长期采矿以及位于中国南方的采矿。这项工作在ERA分层和完善的趋势下,提供了一种方便且具有成本效益的前瞻性ERA方法,促进各种MMA的风险管理。
    Soil heavy metal (HM) contamination around metal mining areas (MMAs) is a global concern that requires a cost-effective ecological risk assessment (ERA) method for preventive management. Traditional ERAs, comparing environmental HM concentrations with benchmarks, are labor- and cost-intensive in field investigations and chemical analyses, which challenge the management demands of numerous MMAs. In this study, a prospective ecological risk assessment method based on exposure and ecological scenario (ERA-EES) was developed to predict the eco-risk levels (low/medium/high) around MMAs prior to field sampling. Five exposure scenario indicators related to soil HM exposure and three ecological scenario indicators reflecting the soil bioreceptor response were selected and combined with the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation methods for ERA-EES development. Case application and performance evaluation with 67 MMAs in China demonstrated that the ERA-EES method had an overall effective and conservative performance when referring to potential ecological risk index (PERI) levels, with an accuracy of 0.87, kappa coefficient of 0.7, and low or medium eco-risk levels in PERI classified to high levels in ERA-EES. Overall, the selected scenario indicators could efficiently reflect the risk levels of soil HM pollution from mining activities. Besides, more regulatory efforts should be paid to the MMAs of nonferrous metals, underground and long-term mining and those located in southern China. This work provided a convenient and cost-effective prospective ERA method under the trend of ERA being tiered and refined, facilitating the risk management of various MMAs.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:采用多指标决策分析(MCDA)模型评价青藤碱中药制剂单用或与常规药物联用治疗类风湿关节炎(RA)的利弊,为青藤碱临床合理应用提供依据。
    方法:使用六个主要数据库进行研究搜索,使用ReviewManager5.3进行数据分析。然后,建立了青藤碱制剂治疗RA的MCDA模型评价体系,和利益价值,风险值,使用Hiview3.2软件计算青藤碱制剂单独或与常规药物联合使用的总获益-风险值。最后,MonteCarlo模拟使用嵌入Excel软件的CrystalBall计算95%置信区间(95%CI),并确定2种药物方案之间差异的概率以优化评估结果。
    结果:纳入了44项随机对照试验。MCDA模型的定量评估显示,单独使用青藤碱制剂的益处小于与常规药物联合使用时的益处差异为20(95%CI3.06,35.71)。然而,联合用药的风险显著降低,风险差为13(95%CI-10.26,27.52).青藤碱单独和与常规药物联合使用的获益-风险的总价值分别为46和53,分别占两种给药方案的获益-风险比的60%和40%,分别,差异为7(95%CI-4.26,22.12)。联合方案的综合评分大于单独青藤碱的概率为90.1%,评估是稳定的。
    结论:青藤碱联合应用方案的获益-风险高于单独使用青藤碱。
    OBJECTIVE: A multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) model was used to evaluate the benefits and risks of traditional Chinese medicine preparations of sinomenine alone or in combination with conventional drugs in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and to provide a basis for the rational clinical application of sinomenine.
    METHODS: A study search was performed using six major databases, and Review Manager 5.3 was used for data analysis. Then, an MCDA model evaluation system was established for the treatment of RA with sinomenine preparations, and the benefit values, risk values, and total benefit-risk values of sinomenine preparations alone or in combination with conventional drugs were calculated using Hiview 3.2 software. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations were performed using Crystal Ball embedded in Excel software to calculate the 95% confidence intervals (95% CI), and the probability of the differences between the 2 drug regimens was determined to optimize the evaluation results.
    RESULTS: Forty-four randomized controlled trials (RCTs) were included. Quantitative assessment of the MCDA model showed that the sinomenine preparation alone offered less benefits than when combined with conventional drugs with a benefit difference of 20 (95% CI 3.06, 35.71). However, the risk of the combination was significantly lower with a risk difference of 13(95% CI -10.26, 27.52). The total value of the benefit-risk of sinomenine alone and in combination with conventional drugs was 46 and 53 at 60% and 40% of the benefit-risk ratio of the two dosing regimens, respectively, with a difference of 7 (95% CI -4.26, 22.12). The probability that the comprehensive score of the combined regimen is greater than that of sinomenine alone is 90.1%, and the evaluation was steady.
    CONCLUSIONS: The benefit-risk of the combined application regimen of sinomenine is greater than that of sinomenine alone.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    多标准决策分析(MCDA)是复杂决策情况下的有用工具,并已用于医学领域,以评估治疗方案和药物选择。本研究旨在通过考察现有研究的研究重点,为医疗保健中的MCDA提供有价值的见解,主要领域,主要应用,最有生产力的作者和国家,以及该领域最常见的期刊。
    2021年7月14日,对来自WebofScienceCoreCollection(WoSCC)数据库的与医疗保健中的MCDA相关的出版物进行了文献计量分析。三个文献计量软件(VOSviewer,R-bibliometrix,和CiteSpace)用于进行分析,包括年份,国家,研究所,作者,期刊,共同引用参考文献,和关键词。
    总共确定了410种出版物,平均年增长率为32%(1999-2021年),来自196种学术期刊,共有来自70个国家/地区的871家机构引用了23,637篇共引用参考文献。美国是生产力最高的国家(n=80)。Pendidikan苏丹伊德里斯大学(n=16),蒙特利尔大学(n=13),Syreon研究所(n=12)是最高的生产机构。AAZaidan,MireilleGoetghebeur和ZoltanKalo是每个作者网络集群中最大的节点。就文章数量(n=17)和引用次数(n=1,673)而言,排名靠前的期刊是《健康价值》和《医疗系统杂志》,分别。现有文献集中在四个方面,包括层次分析法(AHP),决策,卫生技术评估,和医疗废物管理。COVID-19和模糊TOPSIS最近受到了MCDA应用的关注。大数据中的MCDA,远程医疗,TOPSIS,模糊层次分析法是一个很好的发展和重要的主题,这可能是未来研究的趋势。
    这项研究揭示了在医疗保健领域发表的MCDA相关文献的整体表现。MCDA在不同主题上有广泛的应用,对从业者有帮助,研究人员,以及在医疗保健领域工作的决策者,以推动医疗复杂决策的发展。可以说,改善MCDA在医疗保健中的作用的大门仍然是敞开的,无论是在其方法论中(例如,模糊TOPSIS)或应用(例如,远程医疗)。
    Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a useful tool in complex decision-making situations, and has been used in medical fields to evaluate treatment options and drug selection. This study aims to provide valuable insights into MCDA in healthcare through examining the research focus of existing studies, major fields, major applications, most productive authors and countries, and most common journals in the domain.
    A bibliometric analysis was conducted on the publication related to MCDA in healthcare from the Web of Science Core Collection (WoSCC) database on 14 July 2021. Three bibliometric software (VOSviewer, R-bibliometrix, and CiteSpace) were used to conduct the analysis including years, countries, institutes, authors, journals, co-citation references, and keywords.
    A total of 410 publications were identified with an average yearly growth rate of 32% (1999-2021), from 196 academic journals with 23,637 co-citation references by 871 institutions from 70 countries/regions. The United States was the most productive country (n = 80). Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris (n = 16), Université de Montréal (n = 13), and Syreon Research Institute (n = 12) were the top productive institutions. A A Zaidan, Mireille Goetghebeur and Zoltan Kalo were the biggest nodes in every cluster of authors\' networks. The top journals in terms of the number of articles (n = 17) and citations (n = 1,673) were Value in Health and Journal of Medical Systems, respectively. The extant literature has focused on four aspects, including the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), decision-making, health technology assessment, and healthcare waste management. COVID-19 and fuzzy TOPSIS received careful attention from MCDA applications recently. MCDA in big data, telemedicine, TOPSIS, and fuzzy AHP is well-developed and an important theme, which may be the trend in future research.
    This study uncovers a holistic picture of the performance of MCDA-related literature published in healthcare. MCDA has a broad application on different topics and would be helpful for practitioners, researchers, and decision-makers working in healthcare to advance the wheel of medical complex decision-making. It can be argued that the door is still open for improving the role of MCDA in healthcare, whether in its methodology (e.g., fuzzy TOPSIS) or application (e.g., telemedicine).
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    污染现场管理是一个多目标决策,一般涉及不同的因素,例如技术的性能,环境影响,成本,和社会影响力。在这项研究中,我们开发了一种基于可持续性评估的方法,用于确定污染场地风险管理方案的优先级。我们将补救可持续评估和再开发可持续评估整合在一个框架中,并允许指标的优化。该框架从站点管理类型的定义开始,然后调查场地特征,筛选指标,量化指标,选择评估模型,选择主选项,具有不确定性分析的评估,并确定首选方案。为了演示框架的实用性,结果在中国西南部的一个污染地点提出,用于两个风险管理决策,场地修复和场地重建。我们使用不同的方法来评估评估结果的稳定性和稳健性,包括蒙特卡罗模拟,情景分析,和敏感性分析。演示表明,必须注意对网站的适当描述,程序的原则,和决策标准。
    Contaminated site management is a multiple objective decision-making that generally involves different factors, such as performance of technology, environmental effects, cost, and social influence. In this study, we developed a sustainability assessment-based methodology for the prioritization of contaminated site risk management options. We integrate remediation sustainable assessment and redevelopment sustainable assessment in one framework and allow the optimization of indicators. The framework started with the definition of site management type, then investigating site characterization, screening indicators, quantifying of indicator, selecting assessment model, selecting primary options, assessment with uncertainty analysis, and determining of preferred options. To demonstrate the utility of the framework, results are presented in a contaminate site in southwest China for two risk management decisions, site remediation and site redevelopment. We used different approaches to evaluate the stability and robustness of assessment results, including Monte Carlo simulation, scenario analysis, and sensitivity analysis. The demonstration showed that attention has to be paid to the proper description of the site, the principles of the procedure, and the decision criteria.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    Off-patent pharmaceuticals (OPPs) represent more than 60% of the pharmaceutical market in many emerging countries, where they are frequently evaluated primarily on cost rather than with health technology assessment. OPPs are assumed to be identical to the originators. Branded and unbranded generic versions can, however, vary from the originator in active pharmaceutical ingredients, dosage, consistency formulation, excipients, manufacturing processes, and distribution, for example. These variables can alter the efficacy and safety of the product, negatively impacting both the anticipated cost savings and the population\'s health. In addition, many health care systems lack the resources or expertise to evaluate such products, and current assessment methods can be complex and difficult to adapt to a health system\'s needs. Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) simple scoring is an evidence-based health technology assessment methodology for evaluating OPPs, especially in emerging countries in which resources are limited but decision makers still must balance affordability with factors such as drug safety, level interchangeability, manufacturing site and active pharmaceutical ingredient quality, supply track record, and real-life outcomes. MCDA simple scoring can be applied to pharmaceutical pricing, reimbursement, formulary listing, and drug procurement. In November 2015, a workshop was held at the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research Annual Meeting in Milan to refine and prioritize criteria that can be used in MCDA simple scoring for OPPs, resulting in an example MCDA process and 22 prioritized criteria that health care systems in emerging countries can easily adapt to their own decision-making processes.
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