Abstract：
Aquatic habitats provide a bridge for influenza transmission among wild and domestic species. However, water sources pose highly variable physicochemical and ecological characteristics that affect avian influenza virus (AIV) stability. Therefore, the risk of survival or transmissibility of AIV in the environment is quite variable and has been understudied. In this study, we determine the risk of waterborne transmission and environmental persistence of AIV in a wild/domestic bird interface in the Central Mexico plateau (North America) during the winter season using a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). A total of 13 eco-epidemiological factors were selected from public-access databases to develop the risk assessment. The MCDA showed that the Atarasquillo wetland presents a higher persistence risk in January. Likewise, most of the backyard poultry farms at this wild-domestic interface present a high persistence risk (50%). Our results suggest that drinking water may represent a more enabling environment for AIV persistence in contrast with wastewater. Moreover, almost all backyard poultry farms evidence a moderate or high risk of waterborne transmission especially farms close to water bodies. The wildlife/domestic bird interface on the Atarasquillo wetland holds eco-epidemiological factors such as the presence of farms in flood-prone areas, the poultry access to outdoor water, and the use of drinking-water troughs among multiple animal species that may enhance waterborne transmission of AIV. These findings highlight the relevance of understanding the influence of multiple factors on AIV ecology for early intervention and long-term control strategies.
摘要：
水生栖息地为野生和家养物种之间的流感传播提供了桥梁。然而,水源具有高度可变的物理化学和生态特征，影响禽流感病毒（AIV）的稳定性。因此,AIV在环境中的生存或传播风险差异很大，尚未得到充分研究。在这项研究中,我们使用多准则决策分析（MCDA）确定冬季在中部墨西哥高原（北美）的野生/家禽鸟类界面中AIV的水传播和环境持久性的风险。从公共访问数据库中总共选择了13种生态流行病学因素来进行风险评估。MCDA表明，Atarasquillo湿地在一月份表现出更高的持久性风险。同样，在这个野生-家养界面的大多数后院家禽养殖场都存在较高的持久性风险（50％）。我们的结果表明，与废水相比，饮用水可能代表了AIV持久性的更有利环境。此外，几乎所有的后院家禽养殖场都有中等或高度的水媒传播风险，尤其是靠近水体的养殖场。Atarasquillo湿地上的野生生物/家禽界面具有生态流行病学因素，例如在洪水多发地区存在农场，家禽获得室外水，以及在多种动物物种中使用饮用水槽，这可能会增强AIV的水媒传播。这些发现强调了了解多种因素对AIV生态学的影响对于早期干预和长期控制策略的相关性。
