Abstract：
The world has been facing an increase in various natural hazards. The coastal regions are recognized as one of the most vulnerable due to high population pressure and climate change intensity. Mediterranean countries have one of the most burnable ecosystems in the world, one of the most exposed to pluvial floods, and have the highest erosion rates within the EU. Therefore, the aim of this study was to develop the first multihazard susceptibility model in Croatia for the Sali settlement (island of Dugi otok). The creation of a multi-hazard susceptibility model (MHSM) combined the application of geospatial technology (GST) with a local perception survey. The methodology consisted of two main steps: (1) creating individual hazard susceptibility models (soil erosion, wildfires, pluvial floods), and (2) overall hazard susceptibility modeling. Multicriterial GIS analyses and the Analytical Hierarchy Process were used to create individual hazard models. Criteria used (32) to create models are derived from very-high-resolution (VHR) models. Two versions of MHSM are created: 1) all criteria with equal weighting coefficients and 2) weight coefficients determined based on public perception. According to MHSM 1, most of the research (58%) area is moderately susceptible to multiple hazards. Highly and very highly susceptible areas are 27% of the drainage basin and are mostly located near roads and houses. MHSM 2 reveals similar results to MHSM 1. The public perceives that the research area is the most susceptible to wildfires. The wildfire ignition risk is ranked as moderate (3.00) with a standard deviation of 1.16. Pluvial flood risk is ranked low (2.78), with a standard deviation of 1.15. The risk of soil is most inferior (2.24) with a standard deviation of 0.91. The the most significant difference between public perception and the GIS-MCDA model of hazard susceptibility is related to soil erosion. However, the accuracy of the soil erosion model was confirmed by ROC curves based on recent traces of soil erosion in the research area. The proposed methodological framework of multi-hazard susceptibility modeling can be applied, with minor modifications, to other Mediterranean countries.
摘要：
世界面临着各种自然灾害的增加。由于人口压力大和气候变化强度大，沿海地区被认为是最脆弱的地区之一。地中海国家拥有世界上最容易燃烧的生态系统之一，最容易受到洪水袭击的地方之一,并且在欧盟内的侵蚀率最高。因此,这项研究的目的是在克罗地亚为萨利定居点（Dugiotok岛）开发第一个多危害易感性模型。多危险易感性模型（MHSM）的创建将地理空间技术（GST）的应用与本地感知调查相结合。该方法包括两个主要步骤：（1）创建个体危险敏感性模型（土壤侵蚀，野火,洪水)，(2)总体危险敏感性建模。多标准GIS分析和层次分析法用于创建个体危害模型。用于创建模型的标准(32)源自非常高分辨率(VHR)模型。创建了MHSM的两个版本：1）具有相等加权系数的所有标准，以及2）基于公众感知确定的加权系数。根据MHSM1，大多数研究区域（58％）中度易受多种危害。高度和非常高度易感的地区占流域的27％，并且大多位于道路和房屋附近。MHSM2显示与MHSM1相似的结果。公众认为研究区域最容易受到野火的影响。野火点火风险等级为中等(3.00),标准偏差为1.16。洪水风险排名较低（2.78），标准偏差为1.15。土壤的风险最差（2.24），标准偏差为0.91。公众感知与GIS-MCDA灾害敏感性模型之间的最显着差异与土壤侵蚀有关。然而,根据研究区最近的土壤侵蚀痕迹，通过ROC曲线证实了土壤侵蚀模型的准确性。提出的多危险易感性建模的方法框架可以应用，稍作修改,其他地中海国家。
