multicriteria decision analysis

多准则决策分析
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    水-能源-食品(WEF)关系方法越来越多地用于支持向可持续发展的过渡,涉及循环经济(CE)概念的举措。特别是在农业部门,评估这种联系对于确保粮食安全至关重要,控制水和能源等关键资源的消耗,以及测量与气候变化相关的大气排放。本手稿旨在通过将WEFnexus与圆形指示器耦合来提出一种新颖的方法,寻求在单一指数(WEF+CEI)中捕捉样本公司的两种表现。这种新颖的方法适用于位于加利西亚(西班牙西北部)的30个奶牛场,以整体方式对其进行基准测试。要做到这一点,每个农场的WEF联系通过以下指标表示:碳足迹,水足迹,能源足迹,和粮食生产力。此外,每个农场的循环性百分比,对于农产工业合作社,由于应用了循环工具,以百分比计算。最后,使用数据包络分析(DEA)的多标准数学工具获得WEFCEi指标。结果表明,在不考虑农业工业合作社的情况下,这个系统是51%的循环。另一方面,考虑到农场和合作社,该系统达到80%的循环性。最后,拟议的方法可以支持决策,并为该领域的生产者和利益相关者提供见解。
    The Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus approach is increasingly being used for supporting a transition to sustainable development, with initiatives involving the concept of circular economy (CE). In the agricultural sector in particular, assessing this nexus is crucial to ensure food security, control the consumption of key resources such as water and energy, as well as measure atmospheric emissions linked to climate change. This manuscript aims to propose a novel approach by coupling the WEF nexus with a circularity indicator, seeking to capture in a single index (the WEF+CEi) both performances in a sample of companies. The novel approach is applied to 30 dairy farms located in Galicia (NW Spain) to benchmark them in a holistic manner. To do this, the WEF nexus of each farm was represented through the following indicators: carbon footprint, water footprint, energy footprint, and food productivity. In addition, the percentage of circularity for each farm, and for the agro-industrial cooperative was measured thanks to the application of a circularity tool in percentage terms. Finally, the WEF+CEi indicator was obtained using the multicriteria mathematical tool of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). The results show that without considering the agro-industrial cooperative, the system is 51 % circular. On the other hand, considering the farms and the cooperative, the system goes up to 80 % of circularity. Finally, the proposed approach can support decision-making and provide insights for producers and stakeholders in the area.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    世界面临着各种自然灾害的增加。由于人口压力大和气候变化强度大,沿海地区被认为是最脆弱的地区之一。地中海国家拥有世界上最容易燃烧的生态系统之一,最容易受到洪水袭击的地方之一,并且在欧盟内的侵蚀率最高。因此,这项研究的目的是在克罗地亚为萨利定居点(Dugiotok岛)开发第一个多危害易感性模型。多危险易感性模型(MHSM)的创建将地理空间技术(GST)的应用与本地感知调查相结合。该方法包括两个主要步骤:(1)创建个体危险敏感性模型(土壤侵蚀,野火,洪水),(2)总体危险敏感性建模。多标准GIS分析和层次分析法用于创建个体危害模型。用于创建模型的标准(32)源自非常高分辨率(VHR)模型。创建了MHSM的两个版本:1)具有相等加权系数的所有标准,以及2)基于公众感知确定的加权系数。根据MHSM1,大多数研究区域(58%)中度易受多种危害。高度和非常高度易感的地区占流域的27%,并且大多位于道路和房屋附近。MHSM2显示与MHSM1相似的结果。公众认为研究区域最容易受到野火的影响。野火点火风险等级为中等(3.00),标准偏差为1.16。洪水风险排名较低(2.78),标准偏差为1.15。土壤的风险最差(2.24),标准偏差为0.91。公众感知与GIS-MCDA灾害敏感性模型之间的最显着差异与土壤侵蚀有关。然而,根据研究区最近的土壤侵蚀痕迹,通过ROC曲线证实了土壤侵蚀模型的准确性。提出的多危险易感性建模的方法框架可以应用,稍作修改,其他地中海国家。
    The world has been facing an increase in various natural hazards. The coastal regions are recognized as one of the most vulnerable due to high population pressure and climate change intensity. Mediterranean countries have one of the most burnable ecosystems in the world, one of the most exposed to pluvial floods, and have the highest erosion rates within the EU. Therefore, the aim of this study was to develop the first multihazard susceptibility model in Croatia for the Sali settlement (island of Dugi otok). The creation of a multi-hazard susceptibility model (MHSM) combined the application of geospatial technology (GST) with a local perception survey. The methodology consisted of two main steps: (1) creating individual hazard susceptibility models (soil erosion, wildfires, pluvial floods), and (2) overall hazard susceptibility modeling. Multicriterial GIS analyses and the Analytical Hierarchy Process were used to create individual hazard models. Criteria used (32) to create models are derived from very-high-resolution (VHR) models. Two versions of MHSM are created: 1) all criteria with equal weighting coefficients and 2) weight coefficients determined based on public perception. According to MHSM 1, most of the research (58%) area is moderately susceptible to multiple hazards. Highly and very highly susceptible areas are 27% of the drainage basin and are mostly located near roads and houses. MHSM 2 reveals similar results to MHSM 1. The public perceives that the research area is the most susceptible to wildfires. The wildfire ignition risk is ranked as moderate (3.00) with a standard deviation of 1.16. Pluvial flood risk is ranked low (2.78), with a standard deviation of 1.15. The risk of soil is most inferior (2.24) with a standard deviation of 0.91. The the most significant difference between public perception and the GIS-MCDA model of hazard susceptibility is related to soil erosion. However, the accuracy of the soil erosion model was confirmed by ROC curves based on recent traces of soil erosion in the research area. The proposed methodological framework of multi-hazard susceptibility modeling can be applied, with minor modifications, to other Mediterranean countries.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:许多病原体在狗中引起疾病;然而,对小型伴侣动物进行有意义的监测通常只有对最有影响的疾病才有可能。我们描述了第一个利益相关者意见主导的方法,以确定应将哪些犬传染病优先纳入英国的监测和控制策略。
    方法:通过利益相关者分析确定了参与者。进行了多标准决策分析,以建立和衡量评估疾病的流行病学标准,并采用Delphi技术在参与者之间就最优先的犬病达成共识。
    结果:来自多个背景的19个利益相关者参与了这项研究。钩端螺旋体病和细小病毒被确定为最受关注的两种地方病,利什曼病和巴贝西菌病是前两种外来疾病。呼吸道和胃肠道疾病被确定为最关注的两个综合征。
    结论:由于COVID-19大流行,参与者的数量减少了。尽管如此,相关利益相关者的代表性多学科样本为本研究做出了贡献。
    结论:这项研究的结果被用来为未来英国范围内的流行病应对策略的制定提供信息。这种方法可以为其他国家提供蓝图。
    Many pathogens cause disease in dogs; however, meaningful surveillance in small companion animals is often only possible for the most impactful diseases. We describe the first stakeholder opinion-led approach to identify which canine infectious diseases should be prioritised for inclusion in surveillance and control strategies in the UK.
    Participants were identified through a stakeholder analysis. A multicriteria decision analysis was undertaken to establish and weight epidemiological criteria for evaluating diseases, and a Delphi technique was employed to achieve a consensus among participants on the top-priority canine diseases.
    Nineteen stakeholders from multiple backgrounds participated in this study. Leptospirosis and parvovirus were identified as the top two endemic diseases of concern, while leishmaniosis and babesiosis were the top two exotic diseases. Respiratory and gastrointestinal diseases were identified as the top two syndromes of concern.
    Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of participants was reduced. Despite this, a representative multidisciplinary sample of relevant stakeholders contributed to the present study.
    Findings from this study are being used to inform the development of a future UK-wide epidemic response strategy. This methodology could provide a blueprint for other countries.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:定量收益-风险评估(qBRA)是一个结构化的过程,用于评估治疗方案的收益-风险平衡,以支持决策。最近成立了ISPORqBRA工作队,为设计提供建议,QBRA的实施和报告。
    目的:提供一个假设的案例研究,说明如何将工作队的建议应用于qBRA,以在最初上市批准时告知Brodalumab的收益-风险评估。与ustekinumab和安慰剂的基于重量的给药相比,qBRA评估了Brodalumab的两种给药方案(210mg或140mg,每周两次)。
    方法:我们遵循了工作组建议的五个步骤。属性包括治疗反应(PASI75),自杀意念和行为,和感染。性能数据来自brodalumab的关键临床试验。qBRA使用多准则决策分析和来自假设的离散选择实验的偏好权重。敏感性分析检查了受益风险排序对临床效果和偏好估计不确定性的稳健性,考虑一个亚组(指甲牛皮癣),和治疗的维持阶段(52周,而不是12周)。
    结果:该假设qBRA的结果表明,与ustekinumab和安慰剂相比,brodalumab210mg具有更有利的获益-风险特征。与ustekinumab相比,brodalumab的排名取决于brodalumab的剂量。敏感性分析显示了受益风险排序对临床效果和偏好估计不确定性的稳健性,以及属性的选择和后续行动的长度。
    结论:本案例研究展示了如何实施ISPOR工作组关于qBRA的良好实践建议。
    Quantitative benefit-risk assessment (qBRA) is a structured process to evaluate the benefit-risk balance of treatment options to support decision making. The ISPOR qBRA Task Force was recently established to provide recommendations for the design, conduct, and reporting of qBRA. This report presents a hypothetical case study illustrating how to apply the Task Force\'s recommendations toward a qBRA to inform the benefit-risk assessment of brodalumab at the time of initial marketing approval. The qBRA evaluated 2 dosing regimens of brodalumab (210 mg or 140 mg twice weekly) compared with weight-based dosing of ustekinumab and placebo.
    We followed the 5 steps recommended by the Task Force. Attributes included treatment response (≥75% improvement in Psoriasis Area and Severity Index), suicidal ideation and behavior, and infections. Performance data were drawn from pivotal clinical trials of brodalumab. The qBRA used multicriteria decision analysis and preference weights from a hypothetical discrete choice experiment. Sensitivity analyses examined the robustness of benefit-risk ranking to uncertainty in clinical effect and preference estimates, consideration of a subgroup (nail psoriasis), and the maintenance phase of treatment (52 weeks instead of 12).
    Results from this hypothetical qBRA suggest that brodalumab 210 mg had a more favorable benefit-risk profile compared with ustekinumab and placebo. Ranking of brodalumab compared with ustekinumab was dependent on brodalumab\'s dose. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated robustness of benefit-risk ranking to uncertainty in clinical effect and preference estimates, as well as choice of attributes and length of follow-up.
    This case study demonstrates how to implement the ISPOR Task Force\'s good practice recommendations on qBRA.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    本文提出了一种水接入指数(WAI)。使用这个工具,决策者可以确定和优先考虑需要国家干预的领域,以制定行动来保证农村人口获得水。因此,进行的是一个案例研究,巴西半干旱地区的农村社区对建议的方法进行了验证。WAI基于多准则决策分析(MCDA)的组合方法,地理信息系统(GIS),利用沃德集聚法和农村居民参与的聚类分析(CA)。计算WAI的数据是通过对结构化问卷中的主题脚本进行访谈而获得的,该问卷对被评估社区的370名居民开放。为了计算WAI,使用了权重,用德尔菲法确定各指标的得分和各维度的权重并进行分析,发现什么是计算维度和指标权重的有效方法。由于农村人口难以获得水和遭受干旱,所提出的模型显示出适当的进行稳健和结构良好的决策。主要贡献是在遭受干旱和供水困难的地区进行的研究,以及MCDA的组合,SIG,CA和农村居民的参与方法来帮助解决这个问题。用于其他领域,研究人员需要进行公开和专门的咨询,以调整维度权重,因此,WAI方法可以估计水的使用情况,并在世界任何地方生成地图以进行决策。
    This paper proposes a Water Access Index (WAI). Using this tool, decision-makers can identify and prioritize areas that need state intervention to develop actions to guarantee rural population access to water. Thus, was carried out is a case study, rural communities in the semi-arid region of Brazil to validate the suggested method. The WAI is based on a combined method of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA), Geographic Information System (GIS), cluster analysis (CA) using Ward\'s agglomeration method and participation of rural inhabitants. The data for calculating the WAI were obtained by conducting interviews following a script of themes in the structured questionnaire closed to 370 residents of the communities evaluated. To calculate the WAI, weightings were used, in which the scores of the indicators and the weights of the dimensions were determined and analyzed using the Delphi method, what found to be a valid method for calculating the dimensions and indicators weights. Due to difficulty of rural population to have water access and suffer from drought, the proposed model showed appropriate to conduct a robust and well-structured decision-making. The main contributions were the study in region suffering from drought and difficulty in water access, as well as the combination of MCDA, SIG, CA and participation of rural inhabitants methods to aid in this problem. For use in other areas, researchers need to conduct public and specialized consultations to adjust the dimension weights, so the WAI method can estimate the water access situation and generate maps anywhere in the world for decision-making.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    Patient access to orphan medicinal products (OMPs) is limited and varies between countries, reimbursement decisions on OMPs are complex, and there is a need for more transparent processes to know which criteria should be considered to inform these decisions. This study aimed to determine the most relevant criteria for the reimbursement of OMPs in Spain, from a multi-stakeholder perspective, and using multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA).
    An MCDA was developed in 3 phases and included 28 stakeholders closely related to the field of rare diseases (6 physicians, 5 hospital pharmacists, 7 health economists, 4 patient representatives and 6 members from national and regional health authorities). Initially [phase A], a bibliographic review was conducted to identify the potential reimbursement criteria. Then, a reduced advisory board (8 members) proposed, selected, and defined the final list of criteria that could be relevant for reimbursement. A discrete choice experiment (DCE) [phase B] was developed to determine the relevance and relative importance weight of such criteria according to the stakeholders\' preferences by choosing between pairs of hypothetical financing scenarios. A multinomial logit model was fitted to analyze the DCE responses. Finally [phase C], the advisory board review the results using a deliberative process.
    Thirteen criteria were selected, related to 4 dimensions: patient population, disease, treatment, and economic evaluation. Nine criteria were deemed relevant for decision-making and associated with a higher relative importance: Health-related quality of life (HRQL) (23.53%), treatment efficacy (14.64%), availability of treatment alternatives (13.51%), disease severity (12.62%), avoided costs (11.21%), age of target population (7.75%), safety (seriousness of adverse events) (4.72%), quality of evidence (3.82%) and size of target population (3.12%). The remaining criteria had a < 3% relative importance: economic burden of disease (2.50%), cost of treatment (1.73%), cost-effectiveness (0.83%) and safety (frequency of adverse events) (0.03%).
    The reimbursement of OMPs in Spain should be determined by its effect on patient\'s HRQL, the extent of its therapeutic benefit from efficacy and the availability of other therapeutic options. Furthermore, the severity of the rare disease should also influence the decision along with the potential of the treatment to avoid associated costs.
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  • 文章类型: Case Reports
    背景:据估计,40%至60%接受髋关节或膝关节大型骨科手术但未接受血栓预防的患者会发生深静脉血栓形成。最近,研究所的利益相关者一直在质疑这一指南作为新的口服抗凝剂,提供更多的舒适性和有效性,但是出血的风险更高,已经出现在市场上用于治疗深静脉血栓。
    目的:本研究旨在验证多标准决策分析在现实问题中的应用,使用利伐沙班和依诺肝素预防深静脉血栓形成。
    方法:在决策会议过程中使用了多标准方法MACBETH(通过基于分类的评估技术来测量吸引力),以开发一种评估模型,用于测量药物在每个评估标准上的相对价值。单独和全球。通过对随机临床试验进行文献综述和荟萃分析,并对证据进行了严格评估,为模型构建过程提供了信息。
    结果:我们报告了具有八个标准的模型结构,每个都与加权系数和值函数相关联。在简单的添加剂聚集过程之后,模型输出显示,利伐沙班被认为是DVT的稳健选择.进行了敏感性分析和稳健性分析,并证明了结果的一致性。
    结论:本文通过展示MACBETH方法如何与科学证据和参与式小组过程相结合,为文献做出了贡献。用于医院卫生技术评估。
    BACKGROUND: It\'s estimated that 40% to 60% of patients undergoing major orthopedic surgery of the hip or knee who do not receive thromboprophylaxis will develop deep venous thrombosis Instituto Nacional de Traumatologia e Ortopedia has established a guideline to prevent DVT with the administration of the Enoxaparin. Recently, institute stakeholders have been questioning this guideline as new oral anticoagulants that offer more comfort and efficacy, but present higher risk of bleeding, have been appearing in the market for treating deep venous thrombosis.
    OBJECTIVE: This study aims to validate the application of a multicriteria decision analysis in a real-world problem, the use of rivaroxaban and enoxaparin to prevent deep venous thrombosis.
    METHODS: The multicriteria method MACBETH (Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical Based Evaluation Technique) was used in a decision conferencing process to develop an evaluation model for measuring the relative value of the drugs on each evaluation criterion, separately and globally. The model-building process was informed by a literature review and meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials with a critical appraisal of the evidence.
    RESULTS: We report a model-structure with eight criteria, each one associated with a weighting coefficient and value function. Following a simple additive aggregation process, the model-outputs showed that Rivaroxaban was considered a robust option for DVT. Sensitivity analysis and robustness analysis were performed and testify the consistency of the results.
    CONCLUSIONS: This article contributes to literature by showing how MACBETH method can be combined with scientific evidence and participatory group processes, for health technology assessment in hospitals.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    Agriculture and its allied sector contribute significantly to the gross domestic product of every country. Several small-scale enterprises engaged in waste biomass processing have been setup recently. Such industrial setups not only help in solving the waste management issues but also play an important role in offering employment at the grass root level generating a significant social impact along with economic advantage to the local entrepreneur. Hence, assessment of such biomass processing enterprise (BPE) based on economic, environment, and social parameters has become necessary. In this paper, a general framework for sustainability assessment is discussed using a case study of cow dung-urine biorefinery as a representative BPE. Real-time data of BPE has been collected for evaluation and a sustainability index (SI) is evaluated using multicriteria decision method. The SI is calculated as per the weightage assigned and value function of the indicator and criteria. The SI for the BPE was observed to be 0.69 for the chosen set of criteria and indicator and weightages. A sensitivity analysis has been performed to check the dependence of the results on the weightages assigned to various criteria and indicators. It was also observed that the results were more sensitive to the indicators having a low value function.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    The accountability for reasonableness (A4R) framework defines 4 conditions for legitimate healthcare coverage decision processes: Relevance, Publicity, Appeals, and Enforcement. The aim of this study was to reflect on how the diverse features of decision-making processes can be aligned with A4R conditions to guide decision-making towards legitimacy. Rare disease and regenerative therapies (RDRTs) pose special decision-making challenges and offer therefore a useful case study.
    Features operationalizing each A4R condition as well as three different approaches to address these features (cost-per-QALY-focused and multicriteria-based) were defined and organized into a matrix. Seven experts explored these features during a panel run under the Chatham House Rule and provided general and RDRT-specific recommendations. Responses were analyzed to identify converging and diverging recommendations.
    Regarding Relevance, recommendations included supporting deliberation, stakeholder participation and grounding coverage decision criteria in normative and societal objectives. Thirteen of 17 proposed decision criteria were recommended by a majority of panelists. The usefulness of universal cost-effectiveness thresholds to inform allocative efficiency was challenged, particularly in the RDRT context. RDRTs raise specific issues that need to be considered; however, rarity should be viewed in relation to other aspects, such as disease severity and budget impact. Regarding Publicity, panelists recommended transparency about the values underlying a decision and value judgements used in selecting evidence. For Appeals, recommendations included a life-cycle approach with clear provisions for re-evaluations. For Enforcement, external quality reviews of decisions were recommended.
    Moving coverage decision-making processes towards enhanced legitimacy in general and in the RDRT context involves designing and refining approaches to support participation and deliberation, enhancing transparency, and allowing explicit consideration of multiple decision criteria that reflect normative and societal objectives.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    In this study, the irrigation water quality of Eryaman region in Ankara (Turkey) has been investigated using a Geographic Information System-Multicriteria Decision Analysis (GIS-MCDA)-based model. Two different irrigation water quality indices (IWQI-A and IWQI-B) based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) have been developed to provide a single suitability score for all criteria of irrigation water quality. The irrigation water quality indices were composed of 3 main criteria and 11 sub-criteria. Based on irrigation water quality indices, four suitability classes have been identified as (a) excellent, (b) good, (c) permissible, and (d) unsuitable. Irrigation water quality maps were created by using kriging method and the water quality index scores. The temporal variation of irrigation water quality was evaluated using the models created for July 2007, 2010, and 2015 years. The most suitable areas for irrigation water are concentrated in the eastern and western parts of the region where the IWQI-B scores were >0.85. In recent years, the deterioration in irrigation water quality has increased in the southern parts of the basin. This research has demonstrated that the indices created by using DEA and AHP methods are reliable indicators to assess irrigation water quality. PRACTITIONER POINTS: Water quality indices can be used to depict the overall water quality status in water management planning. To avoid problems when modeling groundwater quality, the factors that have the most effect on water quality should be selected. Analytic Hierarchy Process and Data Envelopment Analysis techniques are efficient and reliable methods to determine water quality.
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