geography

地理学
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    本文根据辐射生态学研究结果,以塞米巴拉金斯克核试验场为例,提出了确定地面核试验(NT)震中精确地理坐标的方法。通过测试NTEpicenter软件来确定NT中心的确切地理坐标,已经确定,确实可以确定大多数地上NT的精确坐标。它们的位置目前是由存在确定的,目前是由所谓的震中区域土壤表面的技术干扰(存在火山口)确定的,以及通过比较放射性污染的地图和空间图像。NT的精确坐标的精度高度依赖于辅助网格的密度:辅助网格的间距越小,NT震中的精度越高。
    This paper presents the determination method of the exact geographical coordinates of aboveground nuclear tests (NT) epicenters based on the radioecological study results the example of the Semipalatinsk Nuclear Test Site. By testing the NT Epicenter software for determining the exact geographic coordinates of the NT centers, it was established that it is indeed possible to determine the exact coordinates of most of the aboveground NTs. Their locations are currently determined by the presence are currently determined by the presence of technogenic disturbance of the soil surface in the area of the alleged epicenter (the presence of a crater), as well as by comparing maps of radioactive contamination and a space image. The accuracy of the precise coordinates of the NT is highly dependent on the density of the auxiliary grid: the smaller the pitch of the auxiliary grid, the higher the accuracy of the NT epicenter.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    皮肤黑色素瘤(CM)是全球和加拿大皮肤癌相关死亡率的重要因素。尽管紫外线(UV)辐射暴露与皮肤癌风险之间存在着良好的联系,在人群层面的干预措施和对阳光照射和环境对个人行为的影响的持续误解方面仍然存在差距。
    本研究使用最新的可用数据(2011-2017年)提供了生态分析,以定义加拿大CM景观的地理/环境贡献者。
    利用加拿大癌症登记处和加拿大城市环境卫生研究联盟的数据,我们分析了2011年至2017年在加拿大发生的39,605CM病例。环境数据,包括紫外线辐射,绿地(归一化植被指数),温度,热事件,并使用降水来评估环境对整个正向分拣区邮政编码中CM发病率的影响。
    CM发生率增加的正向分拣区域与较高的年平均温度有关,降雪,热事件,归一化差异植被指数,和维生素D加权紫外线暴露。相反,与发病率下降相关的因素包括年度最高气温升高,降雨,和更长时间的热事件。
    这项研究受到生态偏见的影响,应谨慎解释研究结果。
    本研究进一步证实了特定环境因素与CM发病率之间的关联。
    UNASSIGNED: Cutaneous melanoma (CM) is a significant contributor to skin cancer-related mortality globally and in Canada. Despite the well-established link between ultraviolet (UV) radiation exposure and skin cancer risk, there remains a gap in population-level interventions and persistent misconceptions about sun exposure and impact of environment on individual behavior.
    UNASSIGNED: The current study provides an ecological analysis using latest available data (2011-2017) to define geographic/environmental contributors to the CM landscape in Canada.
    UNASSIGNED: Utilizing Canadian Cancer Registry and Canadian Urban Environmental Health Research Consortium data, we analyzed 39,605 CM cases occurring in Canada from 2011 to 2017. Environmental data, including UV radiation, greenspace (normalized difference vegetation index), temperature, heat events, and precipitation was used to evaluate the effect of environment on CM incidence rates across Forward Sortation Area postal codes.
    UNASSIGNED: Forward Sortation Areas with increased CM incidence were associated with higher annual average temperature, snowfall, heat events, normalized difference vegetation index, and vitamin D-weighted UV exposure. Conversely, factors associated with decreased incidence included an increased annual highest temperature, rain precipitation, and a longer duration of heat events.
    UNASSIGNED: This study is subject to ecological bias and findings should be interpreted with caution.
    UNASSIGNED: This study further substantiates associations between specific environmental factors and CM incidence.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    PIONEERIII试验显示了Supreme药物洗脱支架(DES)与耐用的聚合物依维莫司洗脱支架的12个月安全性和有效性。我们试图评估PIONEERIII中SupremeDES的特征和临床结局在患者之间是否一致。
    这项PIONEERIII试验的亚组分析比较了从北美招募的患者的特征和结果,欧洲,和日本以及根据网站招募量的患者结局的相对差异。
    从2017年10月到2019年7月,北美招募了1629名患者(816,50.1%),欧洲(650,39.9%),和日本(163,10%)。在1611个程序中的1556个(96.6%)中实现了程序成功,地理位置没有区别。在1629例患者中,84例(5.2%)观察到联合组12个月时的靶病变失败,没有显著的地理差异(4.7%,6.5%,和2.5%,分别为;P=.08),仅SupremeDES组的结果就相似(4.4%,6.8%,和3.7%,分别,P=.20)。12个月时的心源性死亡发生率为0.4%,0.2%,和0.0%(P=0.79),目标血管相关心肌梗死发生率为2.2%,4.7%,和3.7%,(P=.10),临床驱动的靶病变血运重建需要2.1%,3.1%,0%,分别(P=.15)。与那些来自高招聘网站的人相比,低招募部位的结果与靶病变失败相似,主要不良心脏事件,支架内血栓形成,和死亡率,心肌梗死发生率上升趋势不显著。
    尽管患者特征存在地区差异,在PIONEERIII试验中,SupremeDES和耐久聚合物依维莫司洗脱支架之间的临床结果没有差异,支持这项多中心对照试验结果的普遍性和稳健性.
    UNASSIGNED: The PIONEER III trial showed the 12-month safety and efficacy of the Supreme drug-eluting stent (DES) vs the durable polymer everolimus-eluting stent. We sought to assess whether the characteristics and clinical outcomes of the Supreme DES in PIONEER III were consistent among patients by enrollment location.
    UNASSIGNED: This subgroup analysis of the PIONEER III trial compared the characteristics and outcomes of patients recruited from North America, Europe, and Japan and the relative differences in patient outcomes according to the site recruitment volume.
    UNASSIGNED: From October 2017 to July 2019, 1629 patients were recruited in North America (816, 50.1%), Europe (650, 39.9%), and Japan (163, 10%). Procedural success was achieved in 1556 of 1611 procedures (96.6%), with no difference by the geographic location. Target lesion failure at 12 months for combined groups was observed in 84 of 1629 patients (5.2%), with no significant geographic differences (4.7%, 6.5%, and 2.5%, respectively; P =.08), with similar results in the Supreme DES group alone (4.4%, 6.8%, and 3.7%, respectively, P =.20). Cardiac death at 12 months occurred in 0.4%, 0.2%, and 0.0% (P =.79), target vessel-related myocardial infarction occurred in 2.2%, 4.7%, and 3.7%, (P =.10), and clinically driven target lesion revascularization was required in 2.1%, 3.1%, and 0%, respectively (P =.15). Compared with those from high-recruiting sites, results from low-recruiting sites were similar for target lesion failure, major adverse cardiac events, stent thrombosis, and mortality, with a nonsignificant trend for higher rates of myocardial infarction.
    UNASSIGNED: Despite regional differences in patient characteristics, the clinical outcomes between Supreme DES and durable polymer everolimus-eluting stent in the PIONEER III trial were not different, supporting the generalizability and robustness of the findings from this multicenter controlled trial.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    橄榄叶是具有健康特性的多酚的丰富来源,代表橄榄油生产中最丰富的废物之一。这项研究的目的是从三个主要的托斯卡纳品种(Leccino,Moraiolo和Frantoio)在锡耶纳和格罗塞托省收集,并研究这些化合物作为品种和地理起源标记的可能用途。判别式因子分析(DFA)用于区分不同品种和位置。芹菜素和咖啡酰-果皮苷在品种之间显示出显着差异。DFA显示ligstroside,芹菜素和木犀草素在确定位点之间的差异方面影响最大,而总多酚,奥莱辛和羟基酪醇乙酸酯可以在同一省份的叶子之间分离。本研究的结果表明,酚类化合物的浓度,通过高分辨率质谱测量,可用作橄榄叶品种和地理起源的标记,可能还有橄榄相关的产品,以及跨越小的地理尺度(站点之间的距离小于50公里)。
    Olive leaves are a rich source of polyphenols with healthful properties and represent one of the most abundant waste products of olive oil production. The aims of this study were to explore the phenolic composition of olive leaves from the three main Tuscan cultivars (Leccino, Moraiolo and Frantoio) collected in Siena and Grosseto provinces and to investigate the possible use of these compounds as varietal and geographic origin markers. Discriminant factorial analysis (DFA) was used for distinguishing between different cultivars and locations. Apigenin and caffeoyl-secologanoside showed significant differences between cultivars. DFA showed that ligstroside, apigenin and luteolin have the most influence in determining the differences between sites, whereas total polyphenols, olacein and hydroxytyrosol acetate allowed for separation between leaves from the same province. The results of the present study indicate that concentrations of phenolic compounds, measured through high-resolution mass spectrometry, can be used as a marker for both the cultivar and of geographical origin of olive leaves, and possibly of olive-related products, as well as across small geographic scales (less than 50 km distance between sites).
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:COVID-19疫苗接种的地理差异可能导致感染风险较高的地区,并发症,和死亡,加剧健康不平等。这项生态研究检查了COVID-19疫苗完成的地理模式,使用年龄和社会人口统计学特征作为可能的解释机制。
    结果:使用来自北卡罗来纳州COVID-19疫苗接种管理系统和美国人口普查局美国社区调查的2020-2022年数据,在邮政编码级别,我们评估了各年龄组主要COVID-19疫苗系列的完成情况.我们通过邮政编码检查了特定年龄完成的地理聚类,并评估了特定年龄地理模式的相似性。使用未经调整和调整的空间自回归模型,我们研究了社会人口统计学特征与年龄特异性疫苗完成量之间的关联.COVID-19疫苗完成在较年轻的群体中在地理上中等程度地聚集,在老年群体中聚类较低。城市地区的疫苗完成度较高。年轻人和中年群体在地理上最相似,而年龄最大的组与其他年龄组最不同。在所有年龄组的调整后模型中,更高的收入与更高的完成度相关,而黑人居民的百分比较高与某些群体的完成度较高有关。
    结论:COVID-19疫苗接种完成情况在北卡罗来纳州较年轻的年龄组中差异更大,在收入较高的城市地区,这一数字更高。在黑人居民较多的地区,完成率较高可能反映了该州种族平等努力的成功。研究结果表明,需要覆盖在早期疫苗接种分配过程中没有优先考虑的年轻人群和低收入地区。
    BACKGROUND: Geographic variation in COVID-19 vaccination can create areas at higher risk of infection, complications, and death, exacerbating health inequalities. This ecological study examined geographic patterns of COVID-19 vaccine completion, using age and sociodemographic characteristics as possible explanatory mechanisms.
    RESULTS: Using 2020-2022 data from the North Carolina COVID-19 Vaccination Management System and U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, at the Zip code-level, we evaluated completion of the primary COVID-19 vaccine series across age groups. We examined geographic clustering of age-specific completion by Zip code and evaluated similarity of the age-specific geographic patterns. Using unadjusted and adjusted spatial autoregressive models, we examined associations between sociodemographic characteristics and age-specific vaccine completion. COVID-19 vaccine completion was moderately geographically clustered in younger groups, with lower clustering in older groups. Urban areas had clusters of higher vaccine completion. Younger and middle-aged groups were the most similar in completion geographically, while the oldest group was most dissimilar to other age groups. Higher income was associated with higher completion in adjusted models across all age groups, while a higher percent of Black residents was associated with higher completion for some groups.
    CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 vaccination completion is more variable among younger age groups in North Carolina, and it is higher in urban areas with higher income. Higher completion in areas with more Black residents may reflect the success of racial equity efforts in the state. The findings show a need to reach younger populations and lower income areas that were not prioritized during early vaccination distribution.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    近年来的社会经济和政治事件导致试图非法越过美国(美国)-墨西哥边境的移民大量增加。虽然30英尺高的边境墙将美国和墨西哥隔开,来自世界各地的移民都把这个地方作为他们进入美国的入口。这些过境点导致重大创伤急剧增加,导致住院资源利用率增加,需要全面的医院服务。这项研究的目的是描述受伤移民的国籍,这些移民被送往为美墨边境墙的一部分服务的创伤中心,并报告出院后的最终目的地。
    我们对收治的患者进行了回顾性研究,2021年至2022年在美墨边境墙受伤后的1级创伤中心。从创伤登记处获得了人口统计信息。搜索电子病历以确定每个患者自我报告的原籍国。然后按世界地区对患者的国籍进行分层,以了解边界伤害入院的地理代表。
    我们确定了597名患者在穿越美国-墨西哥边界墙时受伤,代表38个不同国家。患者的平均年龄为32.2±10.4岁,男性为446名(75%)。大多数患者(405,67.8%)是墨西哥人,其次是来自秘鲁的23名(3.9%)患者,17名(2.8%)来自印度的患者,来自萨尔瓦多的14名(2.3%)患者,来自古巴的13例(2.2%)患者和来自牙买加的12例(2.0%)患者。考虑到墨西哥以外的其他地区,患者通常来自非洲,南美洲和中美洲。
    与美墨边境墙相关的创伤量增加是人道主义和健康危机。(1)因边界墙倒塌而受伤后入院的患者的国籍多样化,为照顾这些边界受伤患者所需的社会和翻译服务以及出院后护理中存在的挑战提供了新的思路。
    UNASSIGNED: Socio-economic and political events of recent years have caused a significant increase in immigrants attempting to illegally cross the United States (US)-Mexico border. While a 30-foot border wall separates the US and Mexico, immigrants from around the world have used this location as their point of entry to the US. These border crossings have led to a dramatic increase in major trauma resulting in increased inpatient resource utilization and the need for comprehensive hospital services. The aim of this study was to describe the nationality of injured immigrants admitted to a Trauma Center serving a segment of the US-Mexico border wall and to report their ultimate destinations after discharge.
    UNASSIGNED: We performed a retrospective review of patients admitted to an academic, Level 1 Trauma Center after injury at the US-Mexico border wall from 2021 to 2022. Demographic information was obtained from the trauma registry. The electronic medical record was searched to identify each patient\'s self-reported country of origin. Patients\' nationality was then stratified by region of the world to understand geographic representation of border injury admissions.
    UNASSIGNED: We identified 597 patients injured while crossing the US-Mexico border wall representing 38 different countries. The mean age of patients was 32.2±10.4 years and 446 (75%) were male. Most patients (405, 67.8%) were Mexican, followed by 23 (3.9%) patients from Peru, 17 (2.8%) patients from India, 14 (2.3%) patients from El Salvador, 13 (2.2%) patients from Cuba and 12 (2.0%) patients from Jamaica. When considering regions of the world other than Mexico, patients were most commonly from Africa, South America and Central America.
    UNASSIGNED: The increased volume of trauma associated with the US-Mexico border wall is a humanitarian and health crisis.(1) The diverse national origin of patients admitted after injury from border wall falls has shed new light on the social and interpreter services needed to care for these border injury patients and the challenges that exist in their post-discharge care.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    准确的地理交通预测在城市交通规划中起着至关重要的作用,交通管理,和地理空间人工智能(GeoAI)。尽管深度学习模型在地理交通预测方面取得了重大进展,它们在有效捕获长期时间依赖性和建模异构动态空间依赖性方面仍然面临挑战。为了解决这些问题,我们提出了一种新颖的基于深度变压器的异构时空图学习模型,用于地理交通预测。我们的模型包含一个时间转换器,可以捕获交通数据中的长期时间模式,而无需简单的数据融合。此外,我们在不同的图层中引入了自适应归一化图结构,使模型能够捕获动态空间依赖关系并适应不同的交通场景,特别是对于异质关系。我们对四个主要的公共数据集进行了全面的实验和可视化,并证明与现有方法相比,我们的模型实现了最先进的结果。
    Accurate geographical traffic forecasting plays a critical role in urban transportation planning, traffic management, and geospatial artificial intelligence (GeoAI). Although deep learning models have made significant progress in geographical traffic forecasting, they still face challenges in effectively capturing long-term temporal dependencies and modeling heterogeneous dynamic spatial dependencies. To address these issues, we propose a novel deep transformer-based heterogeneous spatiotemporal graph learning model for geographical traffic forecasting. Our model incorporates a temporal transformer that captures long-term temporal patterns in traffic data without simple data fusion. Furthermore, we introduce adaptive normalized graph structures within different graph layers, enabling the model to capture dynamic spatial dependencies and adapt to diverse traffic scenarios, especially for the heterogeneous relationship. We conduct comprehensive experiments and visualization on four primary public datasets and demonstrate that our model achieves state-of-the-art results in comparison to existing methods.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在我们努力实现消除疟疾的宏伟目标时,我们必须接受综合战略和干预措施。像许多疾病一样,疟疾是异质分布的。这种固有的空间组成部分意味着地理和地理空间数据可能在疟疾控制策略中发挥重要作用。例如,将干预措施集中在疟疾风险最高的地区,可能会提供更具成本效益的疟疾控制方案。同样,许多疟疾病媒控制策略,特别是像幼虫源管理这样的干预措施,将受益于准确的疟疾病媒栖息地地图-用于疟疾蚊子产卵和幼虫发育的水源。在许多景观中,特别是在农村地区,这些栖息地的形成和持久性受地理因素控制,尤其是那些与水文学有关的。对于疟疾媒介物种尤其如此,如按蚊funestsus,它们显示出更永久的偏好,通常是自然发生的水源,如小河和春季池塘。以前的工作已经接受了地理概念,技术,和地理空间数据,用于研究疟疾风险和媒介栖息地。但是,如果我们要充分利用更广泛的地理学科在疟疾控制方面所能提供的知识,尤其是面对不断变化的气候。本章概述了与几个地理概念相关的潜在新方向,数据源和分析方法,包括地形分析,卫星图像,无人机技术和野外观测。在设计可以很容易地在疟疾控制方案中部署的新方案和程序的背景下讨论了这些方向,特别是撒哈拉以南非洲地区,特别关注基隆贝罗山谷和桑给巴尔群岛的经验,坦桑尼亚联合共和国。
    As we strive towards the ambitious goal of malaria elimination, we must embrace integrated strategies and interventions. Like many diseases, malaria is heterogeneously distributed. This inherent spatial component means that geography and geospatial data is likely to have an important role in malaria control strategies. For instance, focussing interventions in areas where malaria risk is highest is likely to provide more cost-effective malaria control programmes. Equally, many malaria vector control strategies, particularly interventions like larval source management, would benefit from accurate maps of malaria vector habitats - sources of water that are used for malarial mosquito oviposition and larval development. In many landscapes, particularly in rural areas, the formation and persistence of these habitats is controlled by geographical factors, notably those related to hydrology. This is especially true for malaria vector species like Anopheles funestsus that show a preference for more permanent, often naturally occurring water sources like small rivers and spring-fed ponds. Previous work has embraced geographical concepts, techniques, and geospatial data for studying malaria risk and vector habitats. But there is much to be learnt if we are to fully exploit what the broader geographical discipline can offer in terms of operational malaria control, particularly in the face of a changing climate. This chapter outlines potential new directions related to several geographical concepts, data sources and analytical approaches, including terrain analysis, satellite imagery, drone technology and field-based observations. These directions are discussed within the context of designing new protocols and procedures that could be readily deployed within malaria control programmes, particularly those within sub-Saharan Africa, with a particular focus on experiences in the Kilombero Valley and the Zanzibar Archipelago, United Republic of Tanzania.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:协调的护理系统有助于为疑似急性中风提供及时的治疗。在安大略省西北部(NWO),加拿大,社区分布广泛,几家医院提供各种诊断设备和服务。因此,资源有限,医疗保健提供者必须经常将中风患者转移到不同的医院,以确保在建议的时间范围内获得最适当的护理。然而,经常位于NWO的临时(locum)或在安大略省其他地区远程提供护理的医疗保健提供者可能在该地区缺乏足够的信息和经验,无法为具有时间敏感性的患者提供护理。次优决策可能会导致在获得明确的中风护理之前进行多次转移,导致不良结果和额外的医疗保健系统成本。
    目的:我们旨在开发一种工具来告知和协助NWO医疗保健提供者确定中风患者的最佳转移选择,以提供最有效的护理服务。我们旨在使用基于机器学习算法的综合地理映射导航和估计系统开发应用程序。这个应用程序使用与中风相关的关键时间线,包括患者最后一次被认为是好的,患者位置,治疗方案,以及不同医疗机构的成像可用性。
    方法:使用历史数据(2008-2020年),开发了一种使用机器学习方法的准确预测模型,并将其集成到移动应用程序中。这些数据包含有关空中(Ornge)和陆地医疗运输(3种服务)的参数,经过预处理和清洁。对于Ornge航空服务和陆地救护车医疗运输都涉及患者运输过程的情况,合并数据并确定运输旅程的时间间隔。数据被分发用于训练(35%),测试(35%),并对预测模型进行验证(30%)。
    结果:总计,从Ornge和陆地医疗运输服务的数据集中收集了70,623条记录,以开发预测模型。分析了各种学习模型;在预测输出变量方面,所有学习模型的性能均优于所有点的简单平均值。决策树模型提供了比其他模型更准确的结果。决策树模型表现非常好,根据测试的值,验证,和近距离内的模型。该模型用于开发“NWO导航中风”系统。该系统提供了准确的结果,并证明了移动应用程序可以成为医疗保健提供者在NWO中导航中风护理的重要工具,可能影响患者护理和结果。
    结论:NWO导航中风系统使用数据驱动,可靠,准确的预测模型,同时考虑所有变化,并同时与所有必需的急性卒中管理途径和工具相关联。使用历史数据进行了测试,下一步将涉及最终用户的可用性测试。
    BACKGROUND: A coordinated care system helps provide timely access to treatment for suspected acute stroke. In Northwestern Ontario (NWO), Canada, communities are widespread with several hospitals offering various diagnostic equipment and services. Thus, resources are limited, and health care providers must often transfer patients with stroke to different hospital locations to ensure the most appropriate care access within recommended time frames. However, health care providers frequently situated temporarily (locum) in NWO or providing care remotely from other areas of Ontario may lack sufficient information and experience in the region to access care for a patient with a time-sensitive condition. Suboptimal decision-making may lead to multiple transfers before definitive stroke care is obtained, resulting in poor outcomes and additional health care system costs.
    OBJECTIVE: We aimed to develop a tool to inform and assist NWO health care providers in determining the best transfer options for patients with stroke to provide the most efficient care access. We aimed to develop an app using a comprehensive geomapping navigation and estimation system based on machine learning algorithms. This app uses key stroke-related timelines including the last time the patient was known to be well, patient location, treatment options, and imaging availability at different health care facilities.
    METHODS: Using historical data (2008-2020), an accurate prediction model using machine learning methods was developed and incorporated into a mobile app. These data contained parameters regarding air (Ornge) and land medical transport (3 services), which were preprocessed and cleaned. For cases in which Ornge air services and land ambulance medical transport were both involved in a patient transport process, data were merged and time intervals of the transport journey were determined. The data were distributed for training (35%), testing (35%), and validation (30%) of the prediction model.
    RESULTS: In total, 70,623 records were collected in the data set from Ornge and land medical transport services to develop a prediction model. Various learning models were analyzed; all learning models perform better than the simple average of all points in predicting output variables. The decision tree model provided more accurate results than the other models. The decision tree model performed remarkably well, with the values from testing, validation, and the model within a close range. This model was used to develop the \"NWO Navigate Stroke\" system. The system provides accurate results and demonstrates that a mobile app can be a significant tool for health care providers navigating stroke care in NWO, potentially impacting patient care and outcomes.
    CONCLUSIONS: The NWO Navigate Stroke system uses a data-driven, reliable, accurate prediction model while considering all variations and is simultaneously linked to all required acute stroke management pathways and tools. It was tested using historical data, and the next step will to involve usability testing with end users.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    近几十年来,越来越多的加州景观在野火中燃烧,伴随着气候变化导致的温度升高和蒸气压不足。随着荒地-城市界面的扩展,更多的人暴露在这些广泛的野火中并受到伤害,这也侵蚀了陆地生态系统的复原力。随着未来野火活动的增加,迫切需要维持健康的生态系统和具有野火抵御能力的人类社区的解决方案。那些管理灾难响应的人,景观,和生物多样性依赖于对火灾活动如何应对气候变化和其他人为因素的映射预测。加州野火很复杂,然而,气候与火灾的关系在各州各不相同。鉴于已知火灾活动司机的地理可变性,我们询问用于创建这些预测的火灾模型的地理范围是否会改变预测的解释。我们将整个加利福尼亚州的火灾发生模型与为各个生态区开发的模型进行了比较,然后在气候变化情景下预测了世纪末的未来火灾模式。我们使用近几十年(1981年至2010年)的火灾记录和水文气候变量以及地形和人类基础设施预测因子训练了最大熵模型。结果表明,根据模型边界的地理范围,火灾概率的预测因子存在很大差异,并绘制了未来的火灾预测图。只有生态区模型,考虑到植被的独特模式,气候,和人类基础设施,预计该州大多数森林地区的火灾会增加,与其他研究的预测一致。
    An increasing amount of California\'s landscape has burned in wildfires in recent decades, in conjunction with increasing temperatures and vapor pressure deficit due to climate change. As the wildland-urban interface expands, more people are exposed to and harmed by these extensive wildfires, which are also eroding the resilience of terrestrial ecosystems. With future wildfire activity expected to increase, there is an urgent demand for solutions that sustain healthy ecosystems and wildfire-resilient human communities. Those who manage disaster response, landscapes, and biodiversity rely on mapped projections of how fire activity may respond to climate change and other human factors. California wildfire is complex, however, and climate-fire relationships vary across the state. Given known geographical variability in drivers of fire activity, we asked whether the geographical extent of fire models used to create these projections may alter the interpretation of predictions. We compared models of fire occurrence spanning the entire state of California to models developed for individual ecoregions and then projected end-of-century future fire patterns under climate change scenarios. We trained a Maximum Entropy model with fire records and hydroclimatological variables from recent decades (1981 to 2010) as well as topographic and human infrastructure predictors. Results showed substantial variation in predictors of fire probability and mapped future projections of fire depending upon geographical extents of model boundaries. Only the ecoregion models, accounting for the unique patterns of vegetation, climate, and human infrastructure, projected an increase in fire in most forested regions of the state, congruent with predictions from other studies.
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