geography

地理学
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:在日本,近年来,防止各种精神药物处方的法规变得更加严格。然而,多种精神药物处方常见的地区和造成地区差异的地理因素,没有被研究过。在这项研究中,我们使用来自日本所有索赔的数据,通过一项生态学研究,检验了多种精神药物处方的地区差异.
    方法:使用2019年日本公开数据的国家健康保险索赔和特定健康检查数据库。结果是四种或更多种不同类型的抗焦虑药和催眠药以及三种或更多种相同类型的精神药物(任何一种抗焦虑药,催眠药,抗精神病药,抗抑郁药)适用于每个地区的门诊患者。在日本335个二级医疗领域中,分析中使用了331个区域的数据.标准化索赔比率(SCR),这种多种精神药物处方数量的指标,纠正按年龄和性别划分的人口分布的区域差异,对每个二级医疗领域进行了计算。空间簇检测技术用于定位高SCR区域的簇。此外,通过空间统计模型检查了与SCR区域差异相关的因素。
    结果:日本北部地区往往有较高的SCR,北海道的13个地区被确定为多种精神药物处方的最可能集群(似然比最高的集群)。此外,空间回归分析显示,受教育程度较低的人口比例,人均处方总数,以及在精神科工作的人均医师人数与多种精神药物处方的SCR在统计学上呈正相关。
    结论:有人认为,地区的社会经济和医学特征与多种精神药物处方的区域差异有关,然而,需要使用个体水平的数据进行进一步的研究来确认这些结果.
    BACKGROUND: In Japan, regulations preventing the prescriptions of various types of psychotropic drugs have become stricter in recent years. However, the areas where multi-psychotropic drug prescriptions are common and the geographic factors that contribute to the regional difference, have not been studied. In this study, we used data from all claims in Japan to examine regional differences in the prescription for multi-psychotropic drugs using an ecological study.
    METHODS: The National Database of Health Insurance Claims and Specific Health Checkups of Japan Open data in 2019 were used. The outcome was the number of prescriptions for four or more different types of anxiolytics and hypnotics as well as for three or more of the same kind of psychotropic drugs (any one of anxiolytics, hypnotics, antipsychotics, antidepressants) for outpatients in each area. Among the 335 secondary medical areas in Japan, the data on 331 areas were used in the analysis. The standardized claim ratio (SCR), an indicator of the number of this multi-psychotropic drug prescription, correcting for regional differences in distribution of population by age and sex, was calculated for each of the secondary medical areas. The spatial cluster detection technique was used to locate a cluster of high-SCR areas. Furthermore, factors associated with regional differences in the SCRs were examined by a spatial statistics model.
    RESULTS: North Japanese regions tend to have high SCRs, and 13 areas in Hokkaido were identified as the most likely cluster (cluster with the highest likelihood ratio) for multi-psychotropic drug prescription. Furthermore, a spatial regression analysis revealed that the proportion of people with lower educational levels, the total number of prescriptions per capita, and the number of physicians working in psychiatric departments per capita were statistically positively associated with the SCR for the prescription of multiple psychotropic drugs.
    CONCLUSIONS: It was suggested that socioeconomic and medical characteristics of areas are related to the regional variation in the multi-psychotropic drug prescriptions, however, further research using individual-level data is required to confirm these results.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    皮肤黑色素瘤(CM)是全球和加拿大皮肤癌相关死亡率的重要因素。尽管紫外线(UV)辐射暴露与皮肤癌风险之间存在着良好的联系,在人群层面的干预措施和对阳光照射和环境对个人行为的影响的持续误解方面仍然存在差距。
    本研究使用最新的可用数据(2011-2017年)提供了生态分析,以定义加拿大CM景观的地理/环境贡献者。
    利用加拿大癌症登记处和加拿大城市环境卫生研究联盟的数据,我们分析了2011年至2017年在加拿大发生的39,605CM病例。环境数据,包括紫外线辐射,绿地(归一化植被指数),温度,热事件,并使用降水来评估环境对整个正向分拣区邮政编码中CM发病率的影响。
    CM发生率增加的正向分拣区域与较高的年平均温度有关,降雪,热事件,归一化差异植被指数,和维生素D加权紫外线暴露。相反,与发病率下降相关的因素包括年度最高气温升高,降雨,和更长时间的热事件。
    这项研究受到生态偏见的影响,应谨慎解释研究结果。
    本研究进一步证实了特定环境因素与CM发病率之间的关联。
    UNASSIGNED: Cutaneous melanoma (CM) is a significant contributor to skin cancer-related mortality globally and in Canada. Despite the well-established link between ultraviolet (UV) radiation exposure and skin cancer risk, there remains a gap in population-level interventions and persistent misconceptions about sun exposure and impact of environment on individual behavior.
    UNASSIGNED: The current study provides an ecological analysis using latest available data (2011-2017) to define geographic/environmental contributors to the CM landscape in Canada.
    UNASSIGNED: Utilizing Canadian Cancer Registry and Canadian Urban Environmental Health Research Consortium data, we analyzed 39,605 CM cases occurring in Canada from 2011 to 2017. Environmental data, including UV radiation, greenspace (normalized difference vegetation index), temperature, heat events, and precipitation was used to evaluate the effect of environment on CM incidence rates across Forward Sortation Area postal codes.
    UNASSIGNED: Forward Sortation Areas with increased CM incidence were associated with higher annual average temperature, snowfall, heat events, normalized difference vegetation index, and vitamin D-weighted UV exposure. Conversely, factors associated with decreased incidence included an increased annual highest temperature, rain precipitation, and a longer duration of heat events.
    UNASSIGNED: This study is subject to ecological bias and findings should be interpreted with caution.
    UNASSIGNED: This study further substantiates associations between specific environmental factors and CM incidence.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:协调的护理系统有助于为疑似急性中风提供及时的治疗。在安大略省西北部(NWO),加拿大,社区分布广泛,几家医院提供各种诊断设备和服务。因此,资源有限,医疗保健提供者必须经常将中风患者转移到不同的医院,以确保在建议的时间范围内获得最适当的护理。然而,经常位于NWO的临时(locum)或在安大略省其他地区远程提供护理的医疗保健提供者可能在该地区缺乏足够的信息和经验,无法为具有时间敏感性的患者提供护理。次优决策可能会导致在获得明确的中风护理之前进行多次转移,导致不良结果和额外的医疗保健系统成本。
    目的:我们旨在开发一种工具来告知和协助NWO医疗保健提供者确定中风患者的最佳转移选择,以提供最有效的护理服务。我们旨在使用基于机器学习算法的综合地理映射导航和估计系统开发应用程序。这个应用程序使用与中风相关的关键时间线,包括患者最后一次被认为是好的,患者位置,治疗方案,以及不同医疗机构的成像可用性。
    方法:使用历史数据(2008-2020年),开发了一种使用机器学习方法的准确预测模型,并将其集成到移动应用程序中。这些数据包含有关空中(Ornge)和陆地医疗运输(3种服务)的参数,经过预处理和清洁。对于Ornge航空服务和陆地救护车医疗运输都涉及患者运输过程的情况,合并数据并确定运输旅程的时间间隔。数据被分发用于训练(35%),测试(35%),并对预测模型进行验证(30%)。
    结果:总计,从Ornge和陆地医疗运输服务的数据集中收集了70,623条记录,以开发预测模型。分析了各种学习模型;在预测输出变量方面,所有学习模型的性能均优于所有点的简单平均值。决策树模型提供了比其他模型更准确的结果。决策树模型表现非常好,根据测试的值,验证,和近距离内的模型。该模型用于开发“NWO导航中风”系统。该系统提供了准确的结果,并证明了移动应用程序可以成为医疗保健提供者在NWO中导航中风护理的重要工具,可能影响患者护理和结果。
    结论:NWO导航中风系统使用数据驱动,可靠,准确的预测模型,同时考虑所有变化,并同时与所有必需的急性卒中管理途径和工具相关联。使用历史数据进行了测试,下一步将涉及最终用户的可用性测试。
    BACKGROUND: A coordinated care system helps provide timely access to treatment for suspected acute stroke. In Northwestern Ontario (NWO), Canada, communities are widespread with several hospitals offering various diagnostic equipment and services. Thus, resources are limited, and health care providers must often transfer patients with stroke to different hospital locations to ensure the most appropriate care access within recommended time frames. However, health care providers frequently situated temporarily (locum) in NWO or providing care remotely from other areas of Ontario may lack sufficient information and experience in the region to access care for a patient with a time-sensitive condition. Suboptimal decision-making may lead to multiple transfers before definitive stroke care is obtained, resulting in poor outcomes and additional health care system costs.
    OBJECTIVE: We aimed to develop a tool to inform and assist NWO health care providers in determining the best transfer options for patients with stroke to provide the most efficient care access. We aimed to develop an app using a comprehensive geomapping navigation and estimation system based on machine learning algorithms. This app uses key stroke-related timelines including the last time the patient was known to be well, patient location, treatment options, and imaging availability at different health care facilities.
    METHODS: Using historical data (2008-2020), an accurate prediction model using machine learning methods was developed and incorporated into a mobile app. These data contained parameters regarding air (Ornge) and land medical transport (3 services), which were preprocessed and cleaned. For cases in which Ornge air services and land ambulance medical transport were both involved in a patient transport process, data were merged and time intervals of the transport journey were determined. The data were distributed for training (35%), testing (35%), and validation (30%) of the prediction model.
    RESULTS: In total, 70,623 records were collected in the data set from Ornge and land medical transport services to develop a prediction model. Various learning models were analyzed; all learning models perform better than the simple average of all points in predicting output variables. The decision tree model provided more accurate results than the other models. The decision tree model performed remarkably well, with the values from testing, validation, and the model within a close range. This model was used to develop the \"NWO Navigate Stroke\" system. The system provides accurate results and demonstrates that a mobile app can be a significant tool for health care providers navigating stroke care in NWO, potentially impacting patient care and outcomes.
    CONCLUSIONS: The NWO Navigate Stroke system uses a data-driven, reliable, accurate prediction model while considering all variations and is simultaneously linked to all required acute stroke management pathways and tools. It was tested using historical data, and the next step will to involve usability testing with end users.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    各国之间存在行为差异,regions,和宗教。随着近几十年来的快速发展,越来越多的国际移民来自不同宗教的不同地区定居在中国。性行为,特别是危险的性行为,因宗教和地理区域而异的程度尚不清楚。
    我们旨在评估宗教和地理区域与国际移民性行为的关联,并为促进国际移民的性健康提供证据。
    通过互联网采用滚雪球抽样方法对中国的国际移民进行了横断面研究。在我们的研究中,危险的性行为包括有多个性伴侣和从事无保护的性行为。采用描述性分析方法分析了国际移民的基本特征以及他们的性行为,宗教信仰,地理区域的起源。具有乘法和加性相互作用的多元二元逻辑回归分析用于识别与国际移民中危险的性行为相关的宗教和地理方面。
    总共1433名国际移民被纳入研究。南美人和非宗教移民更有可能从事危险的性行为,亚洲和佛教移民不太可能从事危险的性行为。大多数穆斯林有性传播感染和艾滋病毒检测经验;然而,穆斯林将来进行这些测试的意愿很低。多变量分析显示,穆斯林(调整后的优势比[AOR]0.453,95%CI0.228-0.897),印度教(AOR0.280,95%CI0.082-0.961),和佛教徒(AOR0.097,95%CI0.012-0.811)移民不太可能报告从事无保护的性行为。佛教移民(AOR0.292,95%CI0.086-0.990)也不太可能有多个性伴侣。关于地理,与亚洲人相比,南美人(AOR2.642,95%CI1.034-6.755),欧洲人(AOR2.310,95%CI1.022-5.221),和北非人(AOR3.524,95%CI1.104-11.248)有多个性伴侣的概率较高.
    居住在中国的国际移民的危险性行为的比率因其宗教和地理来源地区而异。南美人和非宗教移民更有可能从事危险的性行为。有必要推动措施,包括艾滋病毒自我检测,暴露前预防实施,有针对性的性健康教育,在中国的国际移民中。
    UNASSIGNED: Behavioral differences exist between countries, regions, and religions. With rapid development in recent decades, an increasing number of international immigrants from different regions with different religions have settled in China. The degrees to which sexual behaviors-particularly risky sexual behaviors-differ by religion and geographical areas are not known.
    UNASSIGNED: We aim to estimate the associations of religion and geographical areas with sexual behaviors of international immigrants and provide evidence for promoting the sexual health of international immigrants.
    UNASSIGNED: A cross-sectional study was conducted via the internet with a snowball sampling method among international immigrants in China. In our study, risky sexual behaviors included having multiple sexual partners and engaging in unprotected sex. Descriptive analysis was used to analyze the basic characteristics of international immigrants as well as their sexual behaviors, religious affiliations, and geographical regions of origin. Multivariate binary logistic regression analyses with multiplicative and additive interactions were used to identify aspects of religion and geography that were associated with risky sexual behaviors among international immigrants.
    UNASSIGNED: A total of 1433 international immigrants were included in the study. South Americans and nonreligious immigrants were more likely to engage in risky sexual behaviors, and Asian and Buddhist immigrants were less likely to engage in risky sexual behaviors. The majority of the Muslims had sexually transmitted infection and HIV testing experiences; however, Muslims had a low willingness to do these tests in the future. The multivariate analysis showed that Muslim (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 0.453, 95% CI 0.228-0.897), Hindu (AOR 0.280, 95% CI 0.082-0.961), and Buddhist (AOR 0.097, 95% CI 0.012-0.811) immigrants were less likely to report engaging in unprotected sexual behaviors. Buddhist immigrants (AOR 0.292, 95% CI 0.086-0.990) were also less likely to have multiple sexual partners. With regard to geography, compared to Asians, South Americans (AOR 2.642, 95% CI 1.034-6.755), Europeans (AOR 2.310, 95% CI 1.022-5.221), and North Africans (AOR 3.524, 95% CI 1.104-11.248) had a higher probability of having multiple sexual partners.
    UNASSIGNED: The rates of risky sexual behaviors among international immigrants living in China differed depending on their religions and geographical areas of origin. South Americans and nonreligious immigrants were more likely to engage in risky sexual behaviors. It is necessary to promote measures, including HIV self-testing, pre-exposure prophylaxis implementation, and targeted sexual health education, among international immigrants in China.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:非结核分枝杆菌(NTM)感染引起的颈面部淋巴结炎在儿童中感染率最高。我们的目标是评估患者的人口统计学,治疗方法,以及天气和地理对NTM颈面部淋巴结炎患者疾病发生率的影响。
    方法:查询儿科健康信息系统(PHIS)数据库,以获取2004年至2022年诊断为并发颈面部淋巴结肿大和NTM感染的所有患者的数据。我们通过从NOAA国家环境信息中心收集每月的天气数据来评估天气模式与NTM颈面部淋巴结炎之间的关联。通过将病例数除以研究期间的总出院率来计算发病率。
    结果:在47家PHIS医院中,有992例诊断为NTM颈面部淋巴结炎。诊断时的平均年龄为2[IQR,2-4],59%是女性。93例(9.4%)患者进行皮肤脓肿或病变引流,而15人(1.5%)接受了CPT代码评估的切除程序。最常用的抗生素是头孢菌素(28%),大环内酯类(27%),和利福平(12%)。最常见的治疗方法是使用抗生素进行手术(37%),然后根本没有治疗(35%)。仅手术(17%),和单独的抗生素(10%)。在分析中包括的28个州中,华盛顿(IR:3.5)和内布拉斯加州(IR:3.3)的NTM颈淋巴结炎发病率(IR)最高。这些病例在美国每个地理区域的不同天气季节分布相对均等。然而,使用混合效应零膨胀负二项模型时,总体平均风速与诊断风险的增加弱相关(发生率:1.07,95%CI:(1.01-1.14),p=0.035)。
    结论:我们的结果表明,在我们的NTM颈面部淋巴结炎患者队列中,最常用的治疗方法是同时使用手术和抗生素。我们的结果还表明,不同州之间的发病率可能存在差异,但需要更多的研究,因为我们的队列仅包括美国约50%的州
    OBJECTIVE: Cervicofacial lymphadenitis caused by non-tubercular mycobacterial (NTM) infections has the highest infection rate in children. Our objective was to assess patient demographics, treatment methods, and the impact of weather and geography on the incidence of disease in patients with NTM cervicofacial lymphadenitis.
    METHODS: The Pediatric Health Information System (PHIS) database was queried for data on all patients diagnosed with concurrent cervicofacial lymphadenopathy and NTM infection from 2004 to 2022. We assessed the association between weather patterns and NTM cervicofacial lymphadenitis by collecting monthly weather data from the NOAA National Center for Environmental Information. Incidence rates were calculated by dividing the number of cases by the total hospital discharges during the study period.
    RESULTS: Among 47 PHIS hospitals, there were 992 diagnoses of NTM cervicofacial lymphadenitis. The average age at diagnosis was 2 [IQR, 2-4], with 59 % female. Drainage of skin abscesses or lesions was performed for 93 (9.4 %) patients, while 15 (1.5 %) had an excisional procedure of the CPT codes assessed. The most common antibiotics utilized were cephalosporins (28 %), macrolides (27 %), and rifampin (12 %). The most common treatment method was surgery with antibiotics (37 %) followed by no treatment at all (35 %), surgery alone (17 %), and antibiotics alone (10 %). Of the 28 states included in the analysis, Washington (IR: 3.5) and Nebraska (IR: 3.3) had the highest incidence rates (IR) of NTM cervical lymphadenitis. The cases were relatively equally distributed across the different weather seasons within each U.S. geographic region. However, the overall average wind speed was weakly associated with increasing the risk of diagnosis when utilizing a mixed effect zero-inflated negative binomial model (Incidence Ratio: 1.07, 95 % CI: (1.01-1.14), p = 0.035).
    CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that the most common treatment method utilized in patients within our cohort with NTM cervicofacial lymphadenitis was the concurrent use of surgery and antibiotics. Our results also indicate there may be variation in the incidence rate among different states, but additional studies are needed as our cohort only included approximately 50 % of states within the U.S.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    空气污染的影响是一个主要的公共卫生问题。然而,关于PM2.5与呼吸道感染的相关性研究较少。这项研究旨在确定泰国老年人的PM2.5与呼吸系统疾病之间的联系。这项研究的数据来源包括孔金省卫生局2020年和2021年的43份电子文件,共调查了43,534人。广义线性混合模型(GLMM)用于确定调整后的优势比(AOR),95%CI。我们发现,暴露于PM2.5浓度(以10μgm-3为增量)与呼吸系统疾病相关(AOR:3.98;95%CI[1.53-10.31])。受访者是男性,年龄小于80岁,单身,自雇人士,或者作为承包商工作,体重指数(BMI)不等于标准,有非传染性疾病(高血压,糖尿病,和心血管疾病),是吸烟者,生活在超过5%的土地种植甘蔗的街道,或生活在靠近生物质发电厂的地方发生呼吸道疾病的风险明显更高(p<0.05)。因此,环境因素,包括环境PM2.5浓度,甘蔗种植面积的比例,生物质发电厂影响老年人呼吸系统疾病的发生。此外,人口因素和非传染性疾病是严重的问题。对于普通人群和弱势群体来说,有必要采取系统的方法来降低工业和农业部门的PM2.5水平。包括老年人和非传染性疾病患者。
    The impact of air pollution is a major public health concern. However, there are few studies on the correlation between PM2.5 and respiratory infections. This study aimed to determine a link between PM2.5 and respiratory diseases among the elderly in Thailand. The data source for this study consisted of 43 electronic files from the Khon Kaen Provincial Health Office covering years 2020 and 2021 and surveyed a total of 43,534 people. The generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) was used to determine the adjusted odds ratio (AOR), and 95 % CI. We found that exposure to PM2.5 concentrations (in 10 μg m-3 increments) was associated with respiratory diseases (AOR: 3.98; 95 % CI [1.53-10.31]). Respondents who are male, aged less than 80 years, single, self-employed, or working as contractors, have a body mass index (BMI) not equal to the standard, have NCDs (hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and cardiovascular disease), are smokers, live in sub-districts where more than 5 % of the land is planted to sugarcane, or live in close proximity to a biomass power plant were at significantly higher risk of developing respiratory diseases (p<0.05). Therefore, environmental factors including ambient PM2.5 concentrations, the proportion of sugarcane plantation areas, and biomass power plants impact the occurrence of respiratory diseases among the elderly. Also, demographic factors and NCDs are serious issues. Systematic approaches to reducing PM2.5 levels in industrial and agricultural sectors are necessary for both the general population and vulnerable groups, including the elderly and NCD patients.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    系统地量化气象干旱对喀斯特地区不同农业干旱水平的传播阈值具有重要意义。并揭示了传播驱动机制。这可以指导农业干旱的预警和精细化管理。在这项研究中,以贵州省为例。采用标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)和标准化土壤水分指数(SSI)表征气象和农业干旱。运行理论被用来识别,合并并消除干旱事件。最大相关系数用于捕获气象-农业干旱的传播时间。回归模型用于量化从气象干旱到不同农业干旱水平的传播强度阈值。最后,利用地理探测器探索了传播阈值驱动机制。结果表明:(1)从过去21年的时间变化来看,区域气象干旱比农业干旱持续时间短,强度高,特别是,2011年是严重干旱的一年,2014年后农业干旱明显缓解。(2)在空间变化方面,气象干旱持续时间的“长持续时间区”在东北部呈“S”形分布,“短持续时间区域”呈点状分布。农业干旱的总体持续时间呈东北至“中高,东北低”的空间分布。(3)干旱传播时间从东南到西北呈“谷-峰-谷-峰”交替分布。就传播强度阈值而言,轻度干旱总体上呈东高西低的空间分布。中等,严重,极端干旱表现出贵州南部中部北部低)和边界高的空间分布。(4)岩溶发育强度之间存在较强的空间耦合关系,海拔和气象农业干旱传播阈值。不同因素的相互作用在传播阈值上表现出双因素增强和非线性增强。这表明不同因素对传播阈值的协同作用大于单因素作用。
    It is significant to systematically quantify the propagation thresholds of meteorological drought to different levels of agricultural drought in karst areas, and revealit\'s the propagation driving mechanisms. This can guide early warning and fine management of agricultural drought. In this study,we selected Guizhou Province as an example. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and standardized soil moisture index (SSI) were used to characterize meteorological and agricultural drought. The run theory was used to identify, merge and eliminate drought events. The maximum correlation coefficient was used to capture the propagation time of meteorological-agricultural drought. The regression models were used to quantify the propagation intensity threshold from meteorological drought to different levels of agricultural drought. Finally, the propagation threshold driving mechanism was explored using geographical detectors. The results show that: (1) in terms of temporal variations during the past 21 years, regional meteorological drought had a shorter duration and a higher intensity than agricultural drought, Particularly, 2011 was a year of severe drought, and agricultural drought was significantly alleviated after 2014. (2) In terms of spatial variations, the \"long duration area\" of meteorological drought duration showed an \"S\" shaped distribution in the northeast, and the \"short duration area\" showed a point-like distribution. The overall duration of agricultural drought showed a spatial distribution of northeast to \"medium-high in the northeast and low in the southwest. (3) The drought propagation time showed an alternating distribution of \"valley-peak-valley-peak\" from southeast to northwest. In terms of propagation intensity thresholds, light drought showed an overall spatial distribution of high in the east and low in the west. Moderate, severe, and extreme droughts showed a spatial distribution of low in the center north of southern Guizhou) and high in the borders. (4) There was a strong spatial coupling relationship between karst development intensity, altitude and meteorological-agricultural drought propagation thresholds. The interaction of different factors exhibited a two-factor enhancement and nonlinear enhancement on the propagation threshold. This indicates that synergistic effects of different factors on the propagation threshold were larger than single-factor effects.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    人口老龄化是当前我国人口结构的主要特征之一,这是实现高质量人口发展需要关注的关键领域。由于其独特的地理环境,经济条件,社会文化背景,研究我国西南岩溶地区的人口老龄化问题显得尤为重要。然而,我国西南喀斯特地区人口老龄化的地域分异及其影响因素的研究尚缺乏。鉴于此,我们选择了安顺市,位于贵州省西南部,作为案例研究领域。我们采用洛伦兹曲线和空间自相关研究了人口老龄化空间分布格局的差异,并引入多尺度地理加权回归来探讨其影响因素。结果表明,安顺市老年人口比例(OPP)普遍较高,使其成为老龄化社会的一部分。在空间分布上,OPP呈现东部高,西部低;老年人人口密度(OPD)从南到北呈逐渐增加的趋势。在乡镇规模,OPP和OPD均表现出显著的空间正相关,空间集聚特征明显。OPD和OPP在全球范围内具有正的空间相关性,OPP或OPD相似的乡镇在空间上相邻。人口老龄化的空间分布特征是自然、社会,经济,和岩溶因素。Further,老龄化的空间分布格局由多种影响因素决定,有不同的方向和强度。因此,有必要制定和实施相应的政策和策略来应对未来的老龄化问题。
    An aging population is one of the main features of China\'s current population structure, and it is a key area that needs attention to achieve high-quality population development. Because of its unique geographical environment, economic conditions, and sociocultural background, the study of population aging in the karst region of southwest China is particularly important. However, there is a lack of research exploring the regional differentiation of population aging and its influencing factors in the karst regions of southwest China. In light of this, we chose Anshun City, located in Guizhou Province\'s southwest area, as the case study area. We used the Lorenz curve and spatial autocorrelation to study the differences in the spatial distribution pattern of population aging and introduced multi-scale geographical weighted regression to explore its influencing factors. The results show that Anshun City\'s older people population proportion (OPP) is generally high with more than 7% of the older people there, making it part of an aging society. The OPP appeared high in the east and low in the west in spatial distribution; the older people population density (OPD) revealed a gradually increasing trend from south to north. At the township scale, both the OPP and the OPD showed significant spatial positive correlation, and the spatial agglomeration characteristics were obvious. OPD and OPP have a positive spatial correlation at the global level, and townships with similar OPP or OPD were spatially adjacent. The spatial distribution characteristics of population aging are the consequence of complex contributions such as natural, social, economic, and karst factors. Further, the spatial distribution pattern of aging is determined by a variety of influencing factors, which have different directions and intensities. Therefore, it is necessary to formulate and implement corresponding policies and strategies to deal with the aging problem in the future.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:全球儿童死亡率的下降是一项重要的公共卫生成就,然而,在几内亚比绍等许多低收入国家,儿童死亡率仍然高得不成比例。持续的高死亡率需要进行有针对性的研究,以确定脆弱的儿童亚群并制定有效的干预措施。
    目的:本研究的目的是发现在几内亚比绍城市环境中死亡风险较高的儿童亚组,几内亚比绍,西非。通过识别这些群体,我们打算为制定有针对性的卫生干预措施提供基础,并为公共卫生政策提供信息。
    方法:我们使用了来自健康和人口监测点的数据,班迪姆健康项目,涵盖2003年至2019年。我们确定了儿童达到6周龄之前记录的基线变量。重点是确定与3岁以下死亡率增加相关的因素。我们的多方面方法论方法结合了空间分析,用于可视化死亡风险的地理变化,因果调整回归分析,找出特定的危险因素,和用于识别多因素风险因素集群的机器学习技术。为了确保健壮性和有效性,我们暂时划分了数据集,评估不同时期已识别亚组的持久性。死亡风险的重新评估使用有针对性的最大似然估计(TMLE)方法来实现更可靠的因果模型。
    结果:我们分析了21,005名儿童的数据。2003年至2011年出生的儿童的死亡风险(6周至3岁)为5.2%(95%CI4.8%-5.6%),2012年至2016年出生的儿童为2.9%(95%CI2.5%-3.3%)。我们的发现揭示了3个不同的高风险亚组,死亡率明显较高,居住在特定城市地区的儿童(调整后死亡率风险差异为3.4%,95%CI0.3%-6.5%),没有产前咨询的母亲所生的孩子(调整后的死亡率风险差异为5.8%,95%CI2.6%-8.9%),和在旱季出生的一夫多妻制家庭的儿童(调整后的死亡率风险差异为1.7%,95%CI0.4%-2.9%)。这些子组,虽然小,随着时间的推移,显示出更高的死亡风险的一致模式。共同的社会和经济因素与儿童死亡总数的更大比例有关。
    结论:研究结果强调需要有针对性的干预措施,以解决这些已确定的高风险亚组所面临的特定风险。这些干预措施应旨在补充更广泛的公共卫生战略,制定全面的方法来降低儿童死亡率。我们建议未来的研究侧重于发展,测试,并比较有针对性的干预策略,揭示本研究中提出的假设。最终目标是为高死亡率环境中的所有儿童优化健康结果,利用有针对性和一般健康干预措施的战略组合,以满足不同儿童亚组的不同需求。
    BACKGROUND: The decline in global child mortality is an important public health achievement, yet child mortality remains disproportionally high in many low-income countries like Guinea-Bissau. The persisting high mortality rates necessitate targeted research to identify vulnerable subgroups of children and formulate effective interventions.
    OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to discover subgroups of children at an elevated risk of mortality in the urban setting of Bissau, Guinea-Bissau, West Africa. By identifying these groups, we intend to provide a foundation for developing targeted health interventions and inform public health policy.
    METHODS: We used data from the health and demographic surveillance site, Bandim Health Project, covering 2003 to 2019. We identified baseline variables recorded before children reached the age of 6 weeks. The focus was on determining factors consistently linked with increased mortality up to the age of 3 years. Our multifaceted methodological approach incorporated spatial analysis for visualizing geographical variations in mortality risk, causally adjusted regression analysis to single out specific risk factors, and machine learning techniques for identifying clusters of multifactorial risk factors. To ensure robustness and validity, we divided the data set temporally, assessing the persistence of identified subgroups over different periods. The reassessment of mortality risk used the targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) method to achieve more robust causal modeling.
    RESULTS: We analyzed data from 21,005 children. The mortality risk (6 weeks to 3 years of age) was 5.2% (95% CI 4.8%-5.6%) for children born between 2003 and 2011, and 2.9% (95% CI 2.5%-3.3%) for children born between 2012 and 2016. Our findings revealed 3 distinct high-risk subgroups with notably higher mortality rates, children residing in a specific urban area (adjusted mortality risk difference of 3.4%, 95% CI 0.3%-6.5%), children born to mothers with no prenatal consultations (adjusted mortality risk difference of 5.8%, 95% CI 2.6%-8.9%), and children from polygamous families born during the dry season (adjusted mortality risk difference of 1.7%, 95% CI 0.4%-2.9%). These subgroups, though small, showed a consistent pattern of higher mortality risk over time. Common social and economic factors were linked to a larger share of the total child deaths.
    CONCLUSIONS: The study\'s results underscore the need for targeted interventions to address the specific risks faced by these identified high-risk subgroups. These interventions should be designed to work to complement broader public health strategies, creating a comprehensive approach to reducing child mortality. We suggest future research that focuses on developing, testing, and comparing targeted intervention strategies unraveling the proposed hypotheses found in this study. The ultimate aim is to optimize health outcomes for all children in high-mortality settings, leveraging a strategic mix of targeted and general health interventions to address the varied needs of different child subgroups.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:我们的研究目的是评估过去三十年来麻风负担及其相关危险因素的多标量变化。
    方法:我们在多个地理尺度(全球,区域,和国家),利用来自全球疾病负担的信息,受伤,和风险因素研究(GBD2019)。
    方法:确定麻风病的发病率和年龄标准化发病率(ASIR)的估计年变化百分比(EAPC),根据麻风病发病率变化对国家进行分类。我们通过Spearman相关分析研究了社会经济和自然地理对麻风病发病率的影响,用三元相图揭示了对麻风病发生的协同作用。
    结果:全球,从1990年到2019年,麻风病的事件病例减少了27.86%,ASIR减少了(EAPC=-2.53),然而,各地区的趋势并不一致。ASIR和EAPC与社会人口统计学指数(SDI)呈正相关,ASIR生长出现在高SDI区域(EAPC=3.07)。麻风病负担主要分布在热带拉丁美洲,大洋洲,撒哈拉以南非洲中部,南亚。麻风病发病率与SDI因素呈负相关,人均GDP,城市人口与总人口之比,和降水,而难民人口的数量,温度,和海拔显示相反的阳性结果。
    结论:尽管过去三十年来全球麻风病有所下降,地区和国家范围的疾病发生差异仍然存在。社会经济和自然地理因素对麻风病的传播风险有明显影响。麻风病发病率的持续和区域波动要求在全球范围内采取持续的动态和多层控制策略来对抗这种古老的疾病。
    OBJECTIVE: The purpose of our study was to assess the multiscalar changes in leprosy burden and its associated risk factors over the last three decades.
    METHODS: We conducted an in-depth examination of leprosy\'s spatial-temporal trends at multiple geographical scale (global, regional, and national), utilizing information from Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD 2019).
    METHODS: Incidence and the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of leprosy were determined, with countries categorized based on leprosy incidence changes. We examined socioeconomic and physical geography influences on leprosy incidence via Spearman correlation analysis, using ternary phase diagrams to reveal the synergetic effects on leprosy occurrence.
    RESULTS: Globally, incident cases of leprosy decreased by 27.86% from 1990 to 2019, with a reduction in ASIR (EAPC = -2.53), yet trends were not homogeneous across regions. ASIR and EAPC correlated positively with sociodemographic index (SDI), and an ASIR growth appeared in high SDI region (EAPC = 3.07). Leprosy burden was chiefly distributed in Tropical Latin America, Oceania, Central Sub-Saharan Africa, and South Asia. Negative correlations were detected between the incidence of leprosy and factors of SDI, GDP per capita, urban population to total population, and precipitation, whereas the number of refugee population, temperature, and elevation showed opposite positive results.
    CONCLUSIONS: Despite a global decline in leprosy over the past three decades, the disparities of disease occurrence at regional and national scales still persisted. Socioeconomic and physical geographic factors posed an obvious influence on the transmission risk of leprosy. The persistence and regional fluctuations of leprosy incidence necessitate the ongoing dynamic and multilayered control strategies worldwide in combating this ancient disease.
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