PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
An increasing amount of California\'s landscape has burned in wildfires in recent decades, in conjunction with increasing temperatures and vapor pressure deficit due to climate change. As the wildland-urban interface expands, more people are exposed to and harmed by these extensive wildfires, which are also eroding the resilience of terrestrial ecosystems. With future wildfire activity expected to increase, there is an urgent demand for solutions that sustain healthy ecosystems and wildfire-resilient human communities. Those who manage disaster response, landscapes, and biodiversity rely on mapped projections of how fire activity may respond to climate change and other human factors. California wildfire is complex, however, and climate-fire relationships vary across the state. Given known geographical variability in drivers of fire activity, we asked whether the geographical extent of fire models used to create these projections may alter the interpretation of predictions. We compared models of fire occurrence spanning the entire state of California to models developed for individual ecoregions and then projected end-of-century future fire patterns under climate change scenarios. We trained a Maximum Entropy model with fire records and hydroclimatological variables from recent decades (1981 to 2010) as well as topographic and human infrastructure predictors. Results showed substantial variation in predictors of fire probability and mapped future projections of fire depending upon geographical extents of model boundaries. Only the ecoregion models, accounting for the unique patterns of vegetation, climate, and human infrastructure, projected an increase in fire in most forested regions of the state, congruent with predictions from other studies.
摘要：
近几十年来，越来越多的加州景观在野火中燃烧，伴随着气候变化导致的温度升高和蒸气压不足。随着荒地-城市界面的扩展，更多的人暴露在这些广泛的野火中并受到伤害，这也侵蚀了陆地生态系统的复原力。随着未来野火活动的增加，迫切需要维持健康的生态系统和具有野火抵御能力的人类社区的解决方案。那些管理灾难响应的人，景观,和生物多样性依赖于对火灾活动如何应对气候变化和其他人为因素的映射预测。加州野火很复杂,然而,气候与火灾的关系在各州各不相同。鉴于已知火灾活动司机的地理可变性，我们询问用于创建这些预测的火灾模型的地理范围是否会改变预测的解释。我们将整个加利福尼亚州的火灾发生模型与为各个生态区开发的模型进行了比较，然后在气候变化情景下预测了世纪末的未来火灾模式。我们使用近几十年（1981年至2010年）的火灾记录和水文气候变量以及地形和人类基础设施预测因子训练了最大熵模型。结果表明，根据模型边界的地理范围，火灾概率的预测因子存在很大差异，并绘制了未来的火灾预测图。只有生态区模型，考虑到植被的独特模式，气候,和人类基础设施，预计该州大多数森林地区的火灾会增加，与其他研究的预测一致。
