coronary artery lesions

  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    本文旨在研究氧化应激(OS)和炎症相关靶标在川崎病(KD)相关冠状动脉病变(CAL)中的临床相关性。
    收集了2021年2月至2023年6月之间诊断为KD的455名患者的临床数据,并将其分为两组:CAL和NCAL。进行回归分析以搜索与OS和炎症相关的CAL的独立协变量。根据这些风险因素构建预测列线图。使用校准和接收器工作特性曲线估计模型的属性。
    CRP水平,IL-6,PLT计数,ESR,ox-HDL,MDA,在患有KD的CAL患者中,PLR升高;有趣的是,CAL组HDL和超氧化物歧化酶(SOD)较低。CRP的提升,IL-6,ESR,ox-HDL,MDA,和PLR,HDL和SOD的降低被认为是独立的危险因素。使用这些因素构建的列线图显示出令人满意的校准度和判别力,曲线下面积为0.812。在验证集中,曲线下面积为0.799.
    该模型是根据KD患者的8OS和与CAL相关的炎症相关危险因素建立的。这可能是KD中CAL早期诊断的有效方法。
    UNASSIGNED: The paper was to investigate the clinical relevance of oxidative stress (OS) and inflammation-associated targets in coronary artery lesions (CALs) associated with Kawasaki disease (KD).
    UNASSIGNED: The clinical data from 455 sufferers diagnosed with KD between February 2021 and June 2023 were gathered and divided into two groups: CAL and NCAL. The regression analysis was conducted to search for independent covariates for CALs related to OS and inflammation. The predictive nomogram was structured according to these risk factors. The properties of the model were estimated using calibration and receiver operating characteristic curves.
    UNASSIGNED: The levels of CRP, IL-6, PLT count, ESR, ox-HDL, MDA, and PLR were more elevated in CAL patients with KD; interestingly, HDL and superoxide dismutase (SOD) were low in the CAL group. Ascension of CRP, IL-6, ESR, ox-HDL, MDA, and PLR, and diminution of HDL and SOD were considered independent risk factors. The nomogram constructed using these factors demonstrated a satisfactory calibration degree and discriminatory power, with an area under the curve of 0.812. In the verification set, the area under the curve was found to be 0.799.
    UNASSIGNED: The model was established according to 8 OS and inflammation-associated risk factors bound up with CALs in KD sufferers. It may be a usable approach for early diagnosis of CALs in KD.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    川崎病(KD)后发生冠状动脉病变(CAL)的小儿患者可能并发心肌缺血。尽管先前在成人中的研究已经证明了99mTc-MIBI心肌灌注显像(MPI)对缺血性心脏病的诊断价值,其在儿科人群中的可行性和准确性仍不确定.在这项回顾性研究中,我们收集了在2019年7月至2023年2月期间接受MPI和冠状动脉造影(CAG)的177例儿科患者(年龄范围:6个月至14岁)的数据.以CAG阳性结果作为心肌缺血的参考标准,我们将99mTc-MIBIMPI的结果与其他非侵入性检查进行了比较,包括心脏磁共振成像(CMRI),超声心动图,和全面的心电图相关检查。所有患者均完成三磷酸腺苷应激MPI,无主要副作用。MPI的灵敏度为79.17%,大于CMRI和超声心动图(P<0.05)。MPI的阴性预测值和准确率分别为89.9%和71.75%,表明比别人的优势。MPI和CMRI的复合监测策略有效地提高了诊断性能(P<0.001)。在通过“MPI+CMRI诊断为心肌缺血的4例中,“尽管没有明显的狭窄,在CAG中均观察到多发性巨大冠状动脉瘤(GCAA)。99mTc-MIBIMPI是用于检测KD后CAL患儿心肌缺血的首选非侵入性检查。当与CMRI结合时,它可以提高诊断的准确性。无狭窄的多个GCAAs可能是心肌缺血的独立危险因素。
    Pediatric patients with coronary artery lesions (CALs) after Kawasaki disease (KD) may be complicated with myocardial ischemia. Although previous studies in adults have proven the diagnostic value of 99mTc-MIBI myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) for ischemic heart disease, its feasibility and accuracy in this pediatric population remain uncertain. In this retrospective study, we collected data of 177 pediatric patients (Age range: 6 months to 14 years) who had undergone MPI and coronary artery angiography (CAG) between July 2019 and February 2023. Using the positive result of CAG as the reference standard of myocardial ischemia, we compared the results of 99mTc-MIBI MPI with other non-invasive examinations, including cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (CMRI), echocardiogram, and comprehensive electrocardiogram-related examinations. All patients finished adenosine triphosphate stress MPI without major side effects. The sensitivity of MPI was 79.17%, which was greater than CMRI and echocardiogram (P < 0.05). The negative predictive value and the accuracy of MPI were 89.9% and 71.75%, indicating the advantages over others. Composite monitoring strategy of MPI and CMRI effectively improved the diagnostic performance (P < 0.001). In 4 cases diagnosed with myocardial ischemia by \"MPI + CMRI,\" despite the absence of significant stenosis, multiple giant coronary artery aneurysms (GCAA) were all observed in CAG. 99mTc-MIBI MPI is the preferred non-invasive examination for detecting myocardial ischemia in pediatric patients with CAL after KD. When combined with CMRI, it can enhance diagnostic accuracy. Multiple GCAAs without stenosis may be an isolated risk factor of myocardial ischemia.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    川崎病(KD)是一种以全身性小血管炎为特征的儿科血管疾病,尤其是冠状动脉炎,发病机制不清楚。这项探索性病例对照研究调查了叶酸(FA)、维生素D3(VD3),和维生素B12(VB12)水平和不同类型的川崎病,以及冠状动脉病变(CAL)的发生率。
    在这项探索性病例对照研究中,从2022年1月1日至2023年6月30日入住我们医院的365名KD儿童被纳入KD组。同时,以同期接受体检的健康儿童365例为对照组。KD组分为典型KD组和不完全KD组(IKD组),CALS组和非CALS组,IVIG敏感组和IVIG耐药组。将CAL患儿分为小肿瘤组,中肿瘤组和大肿瘤组。血清FA水平,比较所有组的VB12和VD3。
    KD组和CAL组的血清FA和VD3水平均显着降低(p<0.05),这两个因素均被确定为KD和CAL的独立危险因素。同样,在IKD和IVIG耐药组中观察到血清VD3水平降低(p<0.05),VD3也是IKD和IVIG耐药的独立危险因素。此外,在大动脉瘤组血清FA水平较低(p<0.05),确定FA是动脉瘤大小的独立危险因素。
    KD患儿血清叶酸FA和维生素VD3水平显著降低。此外,这些减少在IKD和CAL患儿中更为明显.这种模式表明,较低的FA和VD3水平可能会增加KD患者发生更严重冠状动脉病变的风险。因此,监测这些生物标志物可以为早期临床诊断和干预提供有价值的见解.
    UNASSIGNED: Kawasaki Disease (KD) is a pediatric vasculitic disorder characterized by systemic small vasculitis, notably coronary arteritis, with unclear pathogenesis. This explorative case-control study investigated the association between folic acid (FA), vitamin D3 (VD3), and vitamin B12 (VB12) levels and the different types of Kawasaki Disease, as well as the incidence of coronary artery lesions (CALs).
    UNASSIGNED: In this explorative case control study, 365 KD children admitted to our hospital from January 1, 2022 to June 30, 2023 were included as the KD group. Simultaneously, 365 healthy children who received physical examination during the same period were included as the control group. The KD group was divided into typical KD group and incomplete KD group (IKD group), CALs group and non-CALS group, and IVIG sensitive group and IVIG resistant group. The children with CALs were divided into small tumor group, medium tumor group and large tumor group. Serum levels of FA, VB12, and VD3 were compared across all groups.
    UNASSIGNED: Serum levels of FA and VD3 were significantly decreased in both the KD and CALs groups (p < 0.05), and both factors were identified as independent risk factors for KD and CALs. Similarly, reduced serum VD3 levels were observed in the IKD and IVIG-resistant groups (p < 0.05), with VD3 also being an independent risk factor for both IKD and IVIG resistance. Additionally, lower serum FA levels were noted in the group with large aneurysms (p < 0.05), establishing FA as an independent risk factor for aneurysm size.
    UNASSIGNED: Serum levels of folic FA and vitamin VD3 were significantly reduced in children with KD. Furthermore, these reductions were more pronounced in children with IKD and CALs. This pattern suggests that lower FA and VD3 levels may increase the risk of more severe coronary lesions in KD patients. Therefore, monitoring these biomarkers could provide valuable insights for early clinical diagnosis and intervention.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:评估血脂谱对川崎病(KD)患者初始静脉免疫球蛋白(IVIG)抵抗和冠状动脉病变(CAL)的预测价值。
    方法:这项回顾性队列研究纳入了KD患者,并将其分为IVIG反应组和IVIG耐药组。还基于CAL(CAL和非CAL组)的存在对它们进行分层。临床,评估超声心动图和生化值。对完全和不完全KD进行亚组分析。通过多变量逻辑回归分析确定初始IVIG耐药性和CAL的预测因子。
    结果:共纳入649名KD患者:151名患有CAL,76名最初患有IVIG耐药。IVIG耐药组的低密度脂蛋白胆固醇(LDL-C)显着低于IVIG反应组。与非CAL组相比,CAL组的LDL-C和载脂蛋白(Apo)B显着降低。多因素logistic回归未能确定血脂谱(LDL-C,ApoA或ApoB)作为KD患者初始IVIG耐药或CAL的独立危险因素。
    结论:KD患者在急性期可能有血脂异常,但血清血脂谱可能不适合作为初始IVIG耐药或CAL的单一预测因子。
    OBJECTIVE: To assess the predictive value of the serum lipid profile for initial intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance and coronary artery lesions (CALs) in patients with Kawasaki disease (KD).
    METHODS: This retrospective cohort study enrolled patients with KD and divided them into IVIG-responsive and IVIG-resistant groups. They were also stratified based on the presence of CALs (CALs and non-CALs groups). Clinical, echocardiographic and biochemical values were evaluated. A subgroup analysis was performed on complete and incomplete KD. Predictors of initial IVIG resistance and CALs were determined by multivariate logistic regression analysis.
    RESULTS: A total of 649 KD patients were enrolled: 151 had CALs and 76 had initial IVIG resistance. Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) was significantly lower in the IVIG-resistant group than in the IVIG-responsive group. LDL-C and apolipoprotein (Apo) B were significantly lower in the CALs group compared with the non-CALs group. Multivariate logistic regression failed to identify the serum lipid profile (LDL-C, Apo A or Apo B) as an independent risk factor for initial IVIG resistance or CALs in KD patients.
    CONCLUSIONS: KD patients might have dyslipidaemia in the acute phase, but the serum lipid profile might not be suitable as a single predictor for initial IVIG resistance or CALs.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    冠状动脉病变(CAL)是川崎病患儿常见但严重的并发症。本研究的目的是评估川崎病患儿CAL的影响因素。为川崎病患儿的临床治疗和护理提供参考。
    一项回顾性队列研究。
    选择2021年1月1日至2022年12月31日在中国三级医院治疗的川崎病儿童。分析川崎病患儿的特点及临床资料。采用Spearman相关分析评价CAL与川崎病患儿特点的关系。采用logistic回归分析川崎病患儿CAL的影响因素。
    总共,纳入185例川崎病患儿;CAL在川崎病患儿中的发病率为18.38%。Pearson相关分析显示,性别(r=0.504),年龄(r=0.611),发烧持续时间≥10天(r=0.579),血红蛋白(Hb)(r=0.623),C反应蛋白(CRP)(r=0.558)均与川崎病患儿CAL相关(均p<0.05)。Logistic回归分析显示,男性[比值比(OR)=2.543,95%置信区间(CI):1.801-3.077,p=0.040],年龄≤2岁(OR=3.002,95%CI:2.744-3.641,p=0.012),发烧持续时间≥10天(OR=2.089,95%CI:1.624-2.515,p=0.028),Hb≤105g/L(OR=1.914,95%CI:1.431-2.406,p=0.013),CRP≥100mg/L(OR=2.168,95%CI:1.893-2.531,p=0.035)是川崎病患儿CAL的危险因素(均p<0.05)。
    川崎病患儿CAL的发病率较高,并且有许多相关的危险因素。临床医务工作者应根据这些危险因素进行早期预警和干预护理,以改善川崎病患儿的预后。
    UNASSIGNED: Coronary artery lesion (CAL) is a common yet serious complication in children with Kawasaki disease. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the influencing factors of CAL in children with Kawasaki disease, to provide reference for the clinical treatment and care of children with Kawasaki disease.
    UNASSIGNED: A retrospective cohort study.
    UNASSIGNED: Children with Kawasaki disease treated in a tertiary hospital in China between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022 were selected. The characteristics and clinical data of children with Kawasaki disease were analyzed. Spearman\'s correlation analysis was conducted to evaluate the relationship between CAL and the characteristics of children with Kawasaki disease. A logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the influencing factors of CAL in children with Kawasaki disease.
    UNASSIGNED: In total, 185 children with Kawasaki disease were included; the incidence of CAL in children with Kawasaki disease was 18.38%. Pearson\'s correlation analysis showed that gender (r = 0.504), age (r = 0.611), duration of fever ≥10 days (r = 0.579), hemoglobin (Hb) (r = 0.623), and C-reactive protein (CRP) (r = 0.558) were all correlated with the CAL in children with Kawasaki disease (all p < 0.05). Logistic regression analyses showed that male [odds ratio (OR) = 2.543, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.801-3.077, p = 0.040], age ≤2 years (OR = 3.002, 95% CI: 2.744-3.641, p = 0.012), duration of fever ≥10 days (OR = 2.089, 95% CI: 1.624-2.515, p = 0.028), Hb ≤105 g/L (OR = 1.914, 95% CI: 1.431-2.406, p = 0.013), and CRP ≥100 mg/L (OR = 2.168, 95% CI: 1.893-2.531, p = 0.035) were the risk factors of CAL in children with Kawasaki disease (all p < 0.05).
    UNASSIGNED: The incidence of CAL in children with Kawasaki disease is high and there are many related risk factors. Clinical medical workers should take early warning and carry out interventions and nursing care according to these risk factors to improve the prognosis of children with Kawasaki disease.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:川崎综合征(KS)是一种急性血管炎,影响5岁以下的儿童,在未经治疗的病例中约有20-25%会导致冠状动脉病变(CAL)。机器学习(ML)是人工智能(AI)的一个分支,它大规模集成了复杂的数据集,并使用庞大的数据来预测未来的事件。本研究的目的是使用ML提出模型,以通过不同的算法对KS儿童进行CAL的早期风险评估。
    方法:妇女儿童医院共纳入158名儿童,青岛大学,并分为70-30%作为建模和验证研究的训练集和测试集。有几个分类器是为模型构建的,包括随机森林(RF),逻辑回归(LR),和极限梯度提升(XGBoost)。在将分类器应用于建模之前分析数据预处理。为了避免过度拟合的问题,所有数据均使用5倍交叉验证方法.
    结果:根据测试集的验证,RF模型的曲线下面积(AUC)为0.925。平均准确度为0.930(95%CI,0.905~0.956)。LG模型的AUC为0.888,平均准确度为0.893(95%CI,0,837至0.950)。XGBoost模型的AUC为0.879,平均准确度为0.935(95%CI,0.891至0.980)。
    结论:在本研究中使用RF算法来有效地构建CAL的预测模型,精度为0.930,AUC为0.925。ML建立的新模型可能有助于指导临床医生做出更积极的初始抗炎治疗。由于外部验证和区域人口特征的限制,需要更多的研究来启动进一步的临床应用。
    OBJECTIVE: Kawasaki syndrome (KS) is an acute vasculitis that affects children < 5 years of age and leads to coronary artery lesions (CAL) in about 20-25% of untreated cases. Machine learning (ML) is a branch of artificial intelligence (AI) that integrates complex data sets on a large scale and uses huge data to predict future events. The purpose of the present study was to use ML to present the model for early risk assessment of CAL in children with KS by different algorithms.
    METHODS: A total of 158 children were enrolled from Women and Children\'s Hospital, Qingdao University, and divided into 70-30% as the training sets and the test sets for modeling and validation studies. There are several classifiers are constructed for models including the random forest (RF), the logistic regression (LR), and the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). Data preprocessing is analyzed before applying the classifiers to modeling. To avoid the problem of overfitting, the 5-fold cross validation method was used throughout all the data.
    RESULTS: The area under the curve (AUC) of the RF model was 0.925 according to the validation of the test set. The average accuracy was 0.930 (95% CI, 0.905 to 0.956). The AUC of the LG model was 0.888 and the average accuracy was 0.893 (95% CI, 0,837 to 0.950). The AUC of the XGBoost model was 0.879 and the average accuracy was 0.935 (95% CI, 0.891 to 0.980).
    CONCLUSIONS: The RF algorithm was used in the present study to construct a prediction model for CAL effectively, with an accuracy of 0.930 and AUC of 0.925. The novel model established by ML may help guide clinicians in the initial decision to make a more aggressive initial anti-inflammatory therapy. Due to the limitations of external validation and regional population characteristics, additional research is required to initiate a further application in the clinic.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    冠状动脉病变(CAL)是川崎病(KD)最常见的并发症,在决定疾病的预后中起着至关重要的作用。因此,早期发现有冠状动脉损伤风险的KD患儿至关重要.我们试图研究KD患者的全身免疫炎症指数(SII)与CAL之间的关系,并评估其预测价值。对2017年1月至2023年1月安徽医科大学第一附属医院KD患者的病历资料进行回顾性分析。我们利用单变量测试,二元逻辑回归分析,ROC曲线分析,受限三次样条测试,和曲线拟合来评估SII和CAL之间的关联。在我们的研究中,包括364名患者,63人(17.3%)在入院时出示CAL。二元logistic回归分析表明,SII是入院时CAL的重要危险因素,在未经调整的模型和针对混杂因素调整的模型中都很明显。ROC曲线分析显示,入院时SII对CAL的预测能力的AUC(曲线下面积)值为0.789(95CI0.723-0.855,P<0.001)。在原始模型和校正模型中均观察到SII与入院时CAL风险之间的一致正线性关系。我们的研究结果表明,SII是CAL的危险因素,可以用作预测CAL的辅助实验室生物标志物。
    Coronary artery lesions (CALs) are the most common complications of Kawasaki disease (KD) and play a crucial role in determining the prognosis of the disease. Consequently, the early identification of children with KD who are at risk of developing coronary artery damage is vitally important. We sought to investigate the relationship between the Systemic Immune-Inflammation Index (SII) and CALs in patients with KD and to assess its predictive value. We carried out a retrospective review and analysis of medical records for KD patients treated at the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University between January 2017 and January 2023. We utilized single-variable tests, binary logistic regression analysis, ROC curve analysis, restricted cubic spline tests, and curve fitting to evaluate the association between SII and CALs. In our study, 364 patients were included, with 63 (17.3%) presenting with CALs at the time of admission. The binary logistic regression analysis indicated that SII was a significant risk factor for CALs at admission, evident in both unadjusted and models adjusted for confounders. The ROC curve analysis revealed an AUC (Area Under the Curve) value of 0.789 (95%CI 0.723-0.855, P < 0.001) for SII\'s predictive ability regarding CALs at admission. A consistent positive linear relationship between SII and the risk of CALs at admission was observed in both the raw and adjusted models. Our research findings suggest that SII serves as a risk factor for CALs and can be used as an auxiliary laboratory biomarker for predicting CALs.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的分析川崎病(KD)冠状动脉病变(CAL)的早期临床特点,评估全身炎症指标,并在KD急性期增强CAL的早期识别。根据超声心动图结果,将314例KD患儿分为CAL组(CAL组)和非CAL组(NCAL组)。并对其临床资料进行回顾性分析。对于KD患者,男性,3至9岁的儿童,那些在使用静脉注射免疫球蛋白(IVIG)之前发烧超过6天的人更有可能患有CAL。性别差异显著,年龄,发热时间(P<0.05)。此外,一些实验室指标检测结果显示,N末端脑钠肽前体(NT-pro-BNP)和白细胞介素-6(IL-6)之间存在显着差异,和CAL(P<.05)。本研究对早期临床评价具有一定的指导意义。
    The purpose of this study is to analyze the early clinical features of coronary artery lesion (CAL) in Kawasaki disease (KD), evaluate systemic inflammation indicators, and enhance early recognition of CAL in the acute phase of KD. A total of 314 children with KD were divided into those with CAL (CAL group) and without CAL (NCAL group) using echocardiographic results, and their clinical data were retrospectively analyzed. For KD patients, male, children aged 3 to 9 years, and those with fever longer than 6 days before intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) use were more likely to have CAL. There were significant differences in sex, age, and fever time (P < .05). Moreover, some laboratory indicator test results revealed there was a significant difference between N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP) and interleukin-6 (IL-6), and the CAL (P < .05). This study has certain guiding significance for early clinical evaluation.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    以前的研究已经确定糖尿病是冠心病的危险因素。本研究确定了IL-6基因-572G/C多态性与糖尿病患者冠心病的发生率和严重程度之间的相关性。
    回顾性研究纳入了2019年1月至2020年12月我院收治的104例糖尿病患者。这些患者被分为仅糖尿病组(A组,27例患者)和糖尿病并发冠心病组(B组,77名患者)。后一组中的70例患者被进一步分为低,中等,和基于冠状动脉造影结果的高语法评分组。IL-6、血脂、和IL-6-572G/C基因水平。
    IL-6-572G/C-GG基因型患者的血清IL-6水平高于GC和CC基因型患者。在糖尿病患者中,IL-6-572G/C-GG和GC基因型的存在与发生冠心病的风险显著增加相关.与具有CC基因型的患者相比,具有IL-6-572G/C-GG基因型和糖尿病的患者显示出更严重的冠状动脉病变。此外,与C等位基因相比,IL-6-572G/C基因的G等位基因与糖尿病患者的冠心病风险更高,冠状动脉病变更严重.
    IL-6-572G/C基因多态性与糖尿病患者冠心病的发生率和严重程度有关。
    UNASSIGNED: Previous studies have identified diabetes as a risk factor for coronary heart disease. This study determined the correlation between the IL-6 gene -572 G/C polymorphism and the incidence and severity of coronary heart disease in patients with diabetes.
    UNASSIGNED: One hundred four patients with diabetes who were admitted to our hospital from January 2019 to December 2020 were retrospectively enrolled in the current study. These patients were divided into a diabetes only group (group A, 27 patients) and a diabetes complicated by coronary heart disease group (group B, 77 patients). Seventy patients in the latter group were further divided into low, medium, and high Syntax score groups based on coronary angiography results. A correlation analysis between IL-6, blood lipids, and the IL-6 -572 G/C gene levels was performed.
    UNASSIGNED: The serum IL-6 level in patients with the IL-6-572G/C-GG genotype was higher than patients with the GC and CC genotypes. In patients with diabetes, the presence of the IL-6-572G/C-GG and GC genotypes was associated with a significantly increased risk of developing coronary heart disease. Patients with the IL-6-572G/C-GG genotype and diabetes were shown to have more severe coronary artery lesions compared to patients with the CC genotype. Moreover, the G allele of the IL-6-572G/C gene was linked to a higher risk of coronary heart disease and more severe coronary artery lesions in patients with diabetes compared to the C allele.
    UNASSIGNED: The IL-6-572G/C gene polymorphism is associated with the incidence and severity of coronary heart disease in patients with diabetes.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:川崎病(KD)发病后1个月的冠状动脉状况具有重要意义。本研究旨在建立KD患儿1个月时冠状动脉瘤(CAA)的预测模型。
    方法:纳入2017年5月至2018年12月诊断为KD的患者作为发展队列,以建立预测模型。通过内部和外部验证对模型进行了验证。2019年1月至2019年12月的患者被纳入验证队列。自适应最小绝对收缩和选择算子(LASSO)用于选择可能的预测因子。接收工作特性曲线(ROC),校准图,和决策曲线分析(DCA)用于评估模型的性能。还评估了儿子得分的表现。
    结果:LASSO回归表明年龄,性别,急性期CAL是1个月时CAA的预测因子。ROC下面积(AUC)为0.946(95%置信区间:0.911-0.980),敏感性为92.5%,特异性为90.5%。校准曲线和DCA显示出良好的诊断性能。内部和外部验证证明了预测模型的可靠性。模型的AUC和Son评分分别为0.941和0.860(P<0.001)。
    结论:我们的KD患者发病后1个月的CAA预测模型具有良好的预测效用。
    BACKGROUND: Coronary status at one month after Kawasaki disease (KD) onset had a great significance. The present study aimed to establish a prediction model for coronary artery aneurysms (CAA) at one month in children with KD.
    METHODS: Patients with a diagnosis of KD between May 2017 and Dec 2018 were enrolled as the development cohort to build a prediction model. The model was validated by internal and external validation. Patients between Jan 2019 and Dec 2019 were enrolled as the validation cohort. The adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) was used to select the possible predictors. Receiving operating characteristic curve (ROC), calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the performance of the model. The performance of the Son score was also assessed.
    RESULTS: LASSO regression demonstrated that age, sex, and CALs in the acute stage were predictors for CAA at one month. The area under the ROC (AUC) was 0.946 (95% confidence interval: 0.911-0.980) with a sensitivity of 92.5% and a specificity of 90.5%. The calibration curve and the DCA showed a favorable diagnostic performance. The internal and external validation proved the reliability of the prediction model. The AUC of our model and the Son score were 0.941 and 0.860, respectively (P < 0.001).
    CONCLUSIONS: Our prediction model for CAA at one month after disease onset in KD had an excellent predictive utility.
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