Survey findings pointing to the worsening health situation for children in Kenya that were highlighted during the National Dissemination Seminar for the 1998 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (KDHS). The survey indicates that currently, 1 in 9 Kenyan children does not live to his or her 5th birthday. Under-five mortality stands at 112 deaths per 1000 live births, a 24% increase over the last decade. The high prevalence of childhood mortality is associated with a short preceding birth interval, a low level of maternal education, and rural location (under-five mortality is 23% higher in rural than in urban areas). Moreover, the risk of children dying varies greatly across provinces. A comparison between the results of the 1993 and 1998 KDHS also indicates recent setbacks in the fight against vaccine preventable diseases. Full vaccination coverage has fallen from 79% in 1993 to 65% in 1998. One of the more positive findings is the continuing decline in total fertility rate from 8.1 children per woman in the mid-1970s to current levels of 4.7 children per woman. In addition, knowledge and use of family planning has continued to rise in Kenya. Lastly, participants in the seminar also discussed the need for further dissemination of findings and further analysis of projects.

This study analyzes fertility preferences or desired family size and related characteristics of married women in Nigeria. Study population included married women aged 20-49 years. The data on fertility, desired family size, and family planning were derived from the Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey conducted in 1990. Findings of the survey indicate that only 36% gave numerical responses to the question on family planning, while 63% gave ¿up to God¿ responses. Most Nigerian women have a high preference for a large family size (at least 6 children), but this varies considerably among socioeconomic groups. Only 18% of married women desire to cease childbearing, much higher than the 5% in previous survey due to severe economic hardships. The desire to terminate childbearing is subjected to several variables including age of women at marriage and during survey, ethnicity, educational level, contraceptive approval and marital stability. The study reveals a high level of consistency between desire for children and the desired family size. The analysis on fertility preferences and contraceptive use indicates a statistically significant relationship exists between the two. Therefore, there is a need to enhance the knowledge and education on fertility control and promote contraceptive accessibility.

This study examines the influence of financial intermediation on fertility rate and labor allocation decisions. A panel Vector Autoregression model using three variables of interest, specifically, financial intermediation, fertility, and industrial employment data in 87 countries, was estimated. This convenient methodology allows the relationship between the variables to change over time. Findings indicate that the increase in wages led some households to shift from traditional labor intensive methods of production to modern sector firms. Since it is optimal for households in the modern sector to have fewer children then the labor allocation decision leads to a lower national fertility. Furthermore, results imply that the emergence and development of the financial intermediation sector will enhance modern sector employment and lower total fertility rates. Thus, the financial intermediation process is an important part of the overall developmental process.

This article presents an overview of the population estimates and projections of the UN for total fertility rates (TFRs), contraceptive prevalence rates, infant mortality rates (IMRs), and life expectancy at birth (LEAB) in West Africa. Countries with a good potential to reach a TFR of 4 children or less within 10-15 years are Cote d\'Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, and perhaps Gambia and Guinea, while the TFRs of countries such as Niger and Mali will remain above 5 in the coming decade. Low contraceptive prevalence is one of the reasons behind the slow progress in attaining low fertility levels in the subregion. When basing the data on this indicator, it appears that only Ghana and Cape Verde will attain the target of 20% by the year 2000 and 40% by the year 2010. Moreover, IMRs will continue to decline, but none of the West African countries will reach the quantitative objectives set in the Dakar/Ngor Declaration (DND) and in the International Conference on Population and Development Programme of Action (ICPD-PA). Similarly, considerable improvements will be seen in the LEAB during the next decade, but, with the exception of Cape Verde and Ghana, none of the other countries are expected to come close to the goals set in the DND and ICPD-PA.

This paper investigates the fertility patterns of adolescent and older women in the Pacific Island countries. Using the age-specific fertility rate for females aged 15-19 years old, an attempt to measure the overall rate of fertility pattern among adolescents was made. It was observed that adolescent fertility has declined over the years in the Pacific Island countries at a time when overall fertility was declining for all women, particularly in Polynesia. Another determinant for fertility pattern includes the rate of childbearing among older women. Although a decrease in childbearing rate was noted, fertility among women 35 years and older remain significantly higher compared with adolescents. Despite these extensive problems, the public sector and the nongovernmental organizations have neglected to address the unmet needs of these women. Several reasons have been mentioned that has caused the problem, which include: inconvenience or unsatisfactory services; ignorance or lack of information; and the unavailability of reliable contraceptive methods and services. This report suggests the need to implement programs aimed at addressing the unmet needs of fecund older women in current and future reproductive health and family planning programs.

Perinatal mortality refers to stillbirths and deaths which occur during the first week of life. 7 million such deaths occur annually worldwide, almost all of which are in developing countries. Rates as high as 75-100 deaths/1000 births have been documented in developing countries. The 3 leading causes of perinatal mortality are complications of pre-term birth, birth asphyxia and birth trauma, and bacterial infections. The other causes of perinatal mortality are largely unknown due to difficulties in documenting stillbirths in developing countries. In many developing country societies, it is culturally unacceptable to acknowledge a birth until it has survived its first week of life. This study identified and quantified the risk factors for perinatal deaths in a rural community in Manikganj district, Bangladesh. Cases were mothers whose infants died in the perinatal period, while comparison mothers were those whose infants survived the perinatal period. Of the 186 infant deaths recorded, 130 (69.9%) were in the perinatal period, and included 53 stillbirths. The perinatal death rate was 64.5/1000 births. Logistic regression confirmed that maternal age, parity, and mal-presentation were significantly associated with perinatal deaths. Mal-presentation was independently associated with a increased risk of perinatal death.

Demography, which should be the basis for planning of any program or project, has traditionally been ignored by Colombian governments. No population statistics are available for the pre-Conquest period in Colombia. Statistics during the Colonial era were based on population counts for division of lands, taxation, and similar considerations. The first census was undertaken around 1770. Colombia\'s most recent census was in 1993, and another is being prepared for 2000. The censuses have been useful for development purposes despite their significant limitations of completeness and accuracy. Colombia\'s population in 1997 was estimated at 40,300,000, making it the third most populous country of Latin America after Brazil and Mexico. Fertility has declined considerably since 1965. Colombia\'s crude birth rate is believed to have exceeded 50/1000 in the 18th and 19th centuries and was estimated at 45/1000 by the Latin American Demographic Center for the first half of the 20th century. The crude birth rate was 41.3/1000 in 1968, 33.1/1000 in 1973, 30/1000 in 1980, and around 26/1000 in 1990 and 1995. The total fertility rate was estimated at 7.0 in 1960-65, 6.7 in 1969, 4.5 in 1973, 3.2 in 1985, and 2.9 in 1995. Fertility declined most appreciably before 1975, but rates continue to drop in rural as well as urban areas and in all geographic zones. For Colombia as a whole the total fertility rate is 4.8 for women with less than 5 years of schooling and 2.4 for those with 8 or more years. It is 2.7 in urban and 4.4 in rural areas.

About half of the almost 1 million US teenagers who become pregnant each year carry their pregnancies to term and give birth. However, after years of steady increases, teen birthrates in the US are lower and pregnancy rates have fallen to their lowest level in 20 years. Teenage sexual activity is also declining. Over the period 1991-96, the birthrate in the US among teens declined from the 20-year high of 62.1 births/1000 females aged 15-19 to 54.4/1000. This 12% decline comes after a 24% increase in the birthrate between 1986 and 1991. Declines in the teen birthrate were observed for the nation overall, as well as in each state, ranging from 6% in Alabama to 29% in Alaska. The teen birthrate among Blacks declined 21% to reach a record low of 91.4/1000 in 1996, while the rate for Hispanic teens barely changed during 1991-95, but eventually declined 5% during 1995-96 to 101.8/1000. The birthrate among non-Hispanic White teens declined 9% during the period to 48.1/1000, while the birthrate for teens aged 15-17 fell 13% during the period and 9% for 18-19 year olds. Pregnancy rates among women aged 15-19 years declined 14% between 1990 and 1995, to 101.1/1000, the lowest level since the mid-1970s. Although researchers are unsure why teen pregnancy and birthrates have fallen, recent survey data suggest that the declines have occurred because both fewer teens are having sex and more sexually active adolescents are using contraception.

\"This paper employs a longitudinal data set from the Philippines to estimate a structural model of the determinants of infant mortality. To control for the endogeneity of some explanatory variables, a set of reduced form equations for these outcomes is estimated simultaneously with the mortality hazard. A non-parametric discrete factor method is used to control for common unobservable factors in the error terms. Birth interval and parity lose explanatory power once biological measures are considered in the model. The results indicate significant correlations across the equations\' error terms. The significant effects of breastfeeding and growth on mortality are quantified in simulation experiments.\" The data are from a longitudinal survey conducted in metropolitan Cebu between 1983 and 1986.

Population trends in the Netherlands in 1997 are briefly reviewed. \"Due to an increase in the numbers of births and immigrants and a decrease in the numbers of deaths, emigrants and (negative) administrative corrections, population growth in 1997 (83 thousand) was higher than in 1996 (73 thousand). The increased number of births is assumed to be related to the economic situation in the Netherlands.... The number of deaths in 1997 was lower than in 1996. This decline is assumed to be a temporary fluctuation around an increasing trend.... The number of immigrants with Dutch nationality grew faster than the number of non-Dutch immigrants.\" (EXCERPT)