At least 3 aspects of fertility should be studied in relation to the health needs of a population: the impact of fertility on the population, the level of fertility, and the age structure of fertility. The required indicators are the birth rate, the total fertility rate, and the age specific fertility rates. If the birth rates and mortality rates are both known, the natural increase rate of the population can be calculated. A rapid rate of increase means that resource requirements for health care will also rise even if maintenance of the current level of care is the only objective. The size and structure of the population must be known in order to gauge halth care requirements. The number of births must be known to predict changes in health service requirements. The total fertility rate is indipendent of population size and structure. High values are associated with such factors as a low educational level and low female activity rates. Age specific fertility rates are related to social norms and behavior. High fertility in the extremes of the fertile period may indicate greater likelihood of health problems for mothers or their infants. Sources of data for calculating the proposed indicators depend on available statistics. Vital statistics data and midyear population estimates, survey data, or vital statistics data and population estimates complemented by survey data may be used. If vital statistics data and midyear population estimates are available, data can be obtained on live births registered during the year by age of mother, estimated underregistration of live births that year, the total estimated population as of June 30, and the female population aged 15-49 years by 5-year cohorts estimated as of June 30. The adjustment procedure in cases of underregistration depends on whether information is available on subregistration by maternal age. The principal indicators may then be obtained by using a few simple formulas. If vital statistics data are not available, information should be gathered in a sample survey. The minimum data requirements are age in completed years, sex and total number of live born children, and children born in the preceding 12 months to women aged 15-49. The principal indicators can then be calculated according to the appropriate formulas. More refined estimates of the total fertility rate can be made using Brass\'s method.

This work analyzes the most recent goals of Peru\'s National Population Council using the TABRAP model and population projections, and concludes that the goal of reducing the total fertility rate by the year 2000 is unattainable. The paper begins with a brief discussion of Peru\'s recent demographic history and population policies and programs, which have received only lukewarm political support. The work is presented in 4 sections. 1) The fertility levels proposed by the official policy are used to obtain a population projection and the resulting growth rates are used to derive the corresponding crude birth rates, which are then evaluated in terms of the contraceptive prevalence required to achieve them. The feasibility of achieving this prevalence rate is assessed. 2) Trends in contraceptive usage are projected to determine the probable distribution of users of each method in the near future, assuming no significant changes in the family planning (FP) program. The resulting fertility rate is the basis for another projection, which establishes the upper limit for the population size and rate of growth in the year 2000. 3) The lower limit is projected assuming a fertility decline to replacement level sometime in the next century, and the FP effort needed to achieve the maximum realistic reduction in fertility is estimated. 4) Alternative projections between the 2 extremes are assessed. The alternatives assume that half of users of traditional methods switch to modern methods between 1990-2000, that the annual number of new acceptors increases, and that a combination of greater acceptance and switching occurs. The models used were the FIV-FIV for population projection and the TABRAP for evaluating the impact of contraceptive usage on fertility rates, both developed by the Population Council in New York. The fertility reduction goal of the National Population Council for 2000 was found to be unrealistic because of the very high rate of contraceptive prevalence it would require: 79.1% among married women aged 15-44. The upper of lower limits established by the study for population growth through the end of the century present alternatives that are compatible with a realistic and achievable level of contraceptive usage. According to the upper limit projection, the total population in 2000 would be 28,513,400 and the contraceptive prevalence rate would be 60.9%. The total fertility rates would be 4.30 for 1990-95 and 3.74 for 1995-2000. According to the lower limit projection, the total population would be 27,560.800 in 2000, with a growth rate of around 2% and a total fertility rate of 3.25 for 1995-2000 and a contraceptive prevalence rate of 74.4%.

Recently, World Fertility Survey (WFS) Project Director Sir Maurice Kendall summarized WFS 1st report findings. Some of the highlights of Kendall\'s paper, based on the 1st reports of 9 countries (Bangladesh, Fiji, Indonesia, Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Thailand) are as follows: 1) a marked decline in fertility levels is underway in many areas of the Asia and Pacific region; 2) the mean age at 1st marriage is rising, moderately in some countries but sharply in others; 3) over 80% of ever-married women have heard of contraception, but use varies widely from 10% in Pakistan to 68% in Fiji; and 4) of the exposed women, between 30-74% of the women, want no more children. Initial success of family planning programs in the Asia and Pacific region is evident in the widespread knowledge of contraceptive methods. Future fertility preferences indicate that on the average more than 1/2 of the exposed women want no more children, suggesting a potential demand for family planning services. Current contraceptive practices make the knowledge, attitude, and practice gap very apparent in the countries of the region.