Abstract：
This study examines the influence of financial intermediation on fertility rate and labor allocation decisions. A panel Vector Autoregression model using three variables of interest, specifically, financial intermediation, fertility, and industrial employment data in 87 countries, was estimated. This convenient methodology allows the relationship between the variables to change over time. Findings indicate that the increase in wages led some households to shift from traditional labor intensive methods of production to modern sector firms. Since it is optimal for households in the modern sector to have fewer children then the labor allocation decision leads to a lower national fertility. Furthermore, results imply that the emergence and development of the financial intermediation sector will enhance modern sector employment and lower total fertility rates. Thus, the financial intermediation process is an important part of the overall developmental process.
摘要：
本研究考察了金融中介对生育率和劳动力分配决策的影响。使用三个感兴趣变量的面板向量自回归模型，具体来说,金融中介，生育力,87个国家的工业就业数据，估计。这种方便的方法允许变量之间的关系随时间变化。研究结果表明，工资的增加导致一些家庭从传统的劳动密集型生产方式转向现代部门公司。由于现代部门的家庭生育较少是最佳选择，因此劳动力分配决定导致国民生育率降低。此外，结果表明，金融中介部门的出现和发展将增加现代部门的就业并降低总生育率。因此，金融中介过程是整个发展过程的重要组成部分。
