Economics

经济学
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    能源转型是缓解气候变化的跨国挑战,与温室气体排放的联合减排目标。同时,每个国家都有兴趣将自己的能源供应成本降至最低。尽管如此,大多数能源系统模型在确定成本最优过渡路径时都忽略了国家利益。我们设计了到2050年的欧洲能源系统过渡,考虑了使用双层优化的共享电力和碳市场中国家之间的竞争。我们发现国家目标对过渡途径有很大影响:与使用通用集中优化求解的模型相比,考虑到国家利益,总装机容量仅增加了3%。然而,在大多数国家,装机容量的分布变化超过40%。我们的结果强调了在忽略能源系统模型中的利益相关者代表时,错误计算国家能力扩展需求的风险,并证明了进行有效能源转型的合作需求。
    The energy transition is a multinational challenge to mitigate climate change, with a joint reduction target for greenhouse gas emissions. Simultaneously, each country is interested in minimizing its own energy supply cost. Still, most energy system models neglect national interests when identifying cost-optimal transition pathways. We design the European energy system transition until 2050, considering competition between countries in a shared electricity and carbon market using bilevel optimization. We find that national objectives substantially impact the transition pathway: Compared to the model solved using the common centralized optimization, the overall installed capacity increases by just 3% when including national interests. However, the distribution of the installed capacity changes dramatically by more than 40% in most countries. Our results underline the risk of miscalculating the need for national capacity expansion when neglecting stakeholder representation in energy system models and demonstrate the need for cooperation for an efficient energy transition.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    将稻壳灰(PHA)和土豆皮等农副产品与有机肥料相结合的意义在于提高土壤肥力,增加作物产量,减少对传统有机肥料的依赖,如农家肥(FYM)或堆肥。以可持续农业和养分管理框架为基础,这项研究考察了农业废物产生的不同配方对生产力的影响,营养效率,以及木豆-蔬菜芥末-秋葵种植系统的盈利能力。在ICAR-IARI进行的为期两年的现场实验(2020-2022年),新德里测试了七种营养源。,(T1)控制,(T2)100%RDN通过FYM,(T3)100%RDN通过改进的RRC,(T4)100%RDN通过基于PHA的配方,(T5)75%RDN通过基于PHA的配方,(T6)通过基于PPC的制剂的100%RDN和(T7)通过基于PPC的制剂的75%RDN,其在RBD中测试并重复三次。T4处理对木豆种子产量有显著影响(1.89±0.09和1.97±0.12tha-1),蔬菜芥菜的叶片产量(81.57±4.59和82.97±4.17tha-1),轮作秋葵的果实产量(13.54±0.82和13.78±0.81tha-1),随后治疗T6和T2在这两年分别超过控制。增强了系统对N的吸收,P和K以及T4的系统总回报率和净回报率增长了78.9%,83.8%,72.4%,第一年分别为54.4%和56.8%和77.5%,80.8%,77.7%,第二年为54.8%和57.4%,分别,过度控制。处理T4显著提高了木豆的表观恢复66.3%和69.2%,蔬菜芥末中的64.7%和47.9%,在T3期间,秋葵的平均发病率为72.7%和79.4%。基于上述发现,(T4)100%RDN通过基于PHA的配方,和(T6)对于缺乏FYM但稻壳灰/土豆皮可用于可持续农业废物和改善可持续性的地区,建议通过基于PPC的配方100%RDN。
    The significance of integrating agricultural by-products such as paddy husk ash (PHA) and potato peels with organic fertilizers lies in enhancing soil fertility, increasing crop yields, and reducing reliance on traditional organic fertilizers like farmyard manure (FYM) or compost alone. Grounded in sustainable agriculture and nutrient management frameworks, this study examines the impact of diverse formulations derived from agricultural waste on productivity, nutrient efficiency, and profitability in a pigeon pea-vegetable mustard-okra cropping system. A two-year field experiment (2020-2022) at ICAR-IARI, New Delhi tested seven nutrient sources viz., (T1) control, (T2) 100% RDN through FYM, (T3) 100% RDN through improved RRC, (T4) 100% RDN through PHA based formulation, (T5) 75% RDN through PHA based formulation, (T6) 100% RDN through PPC based formulation and (T7) 75% RDN through PPC based formulation that were tested in RBD and replicated thrice. Treatment T4 had significant effect on seed yield of pigeon pea (1.89 ± 0.09 and 1.97 ± 0.12 t ha-1), leaf yield of vegetable mustard (81.57 ± 4.59 and 82.97 ± 4.17 t ha-1), and fruit yield of okra (13.54 ± 0.82 and 13.78 ± 0.81 t ha-1) grown in rotation, followed by treatment T6 and T2 during both the years respectively over control. Enhanced system uptake of N, P and K along with system gross and net returns in T4, showed increases of 78.9%, 83.8%, 72.4%, 54.4% and 56.8% in the first year and 77.5%, 80.8%, 77.7%, 54.8% and 57.4% in the second year, respectively, over control. Treatment T4 significantly improved apparent recovery by 66.3% and 69.2% in pigeon pea, 64.7% and 47.9% in vegetable mustard, and 72.7% and 79.4% in okra over T3, averaged across two years. Based on the above findings, (T4) 100% RDN through PHA-based formulation, and (T6) 100% RDN through PPC-based formulation can be recommended for areas with a shortage of FYM but availability of rice husk ash/potato peels for sustainable agricultural wastes and improved sustainability.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:先前关于社会经济地位(SES)与皮肤恶性黑色素瘤(CMM)之间关联的研究未能在基于个体数据的前瞻性研究设计中区分不同SES因素的影响。
    方法:基于英国生物样本库(UKB)和中国嘉道理生物样本库(CKB),我们估计了四个SES因素对从基线到原位坐标测量机转变的影响,随后通过应用多态模型进行侵入性CMM和进一步的CMM死亡率。我们进一步探讨了SES和CMM发病率之间的关联在多大程度上可以通过潜在的介质来解释,包括阳光照射,UKB中的生活方式和衰老。
    结果:在多状态分析中,良好的家庭收入与UKB中原位CMM(HR=1.38,95%CI:1.21~1.58)和侵入性CMM(HR=1.34,95%CI:1.22~1.48)的风险增加独立相关.这些发现在CKB中得到了部分验证。尤其是在UKB,我们观察到,在房屋类型良好的参与者中,CMM原位和侵入性CMM的风险增加;在CMM原位患者中,只有良好的教育与发展为侵入性CMM的风险较低独立相关(HR=0.69,95%CI:0.52~0.92);在CMM患者中,只有良好的家庭收入与CMM死亡率风险较低独立相关(HR=0.65,95%CI:0.45~0.95).在调解分析中,所有选定变量的中介效应所占比例均<6%,包括自我报告的阳光照射相关因素。
    结论:SES因素对CMM的发生和进展有不同的影响。SES和事件CMM之间的关联既不是因果关系,也不是由选定的调解员很好地解释的。
    BACKGROUND: Previous studies on the associations between socioeconomic status (SES) and cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) failed to distinguish the effects of different SES factors under an individual-data-based prospective study design.
    METHODS: Based on UK Biobank (UKB) and China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB), we estimated the effects of four SES factors on transitions from baseline to CMM in situ, subsequently to invasive CMM and further CMM mortality by applying multistate models. We further explored to which extent the associations between SES and CMM incidence could be explained by potential mediators including sun exposure, lifestyle and ageing in UKB.
    RESULTS: In multistate analyses, good household income was independently associated with an increased risk of CMM in situ (HR=1.38, 95% CI: 1.21 to 1.58) and invasive CMM (HR=1.34, 95% CI: 1.22 to 1.48) in UKB. These findings were partly validated in CKB. Especially in UKB, we observed an increased risk of CMM in situ and invasive CMM among participants with good type of house; only good education was independently associated with lower risk of evolving to invasive CMM among patients with CMM in situ (HR=0.69, 95% CI: 0.52 to 0.92); only good household income was independently associated with lower risk of CMM mortality among patients with CMM (HR=0.65, 95% CI: 0.45 to 0.95). In mediation analysis, the proportions attributable to the mediating effect were <6% for all selected variables, including self-reported sun exposure-related factors.
    CONCLUSIONS: SES factors have different effects on the incidence and progression of CMM. The association between SES and incident CMM is neither causal nor well explained by selected mediators.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    甲烷,作为天然气或从各种生物过程中获得的资源(例如,消化,填埋)可以转化为碳和氢。CH4(g)-C(s)+2H2(g)ΔH298K=74.8kJ/mol。先前的研究强调了用中等温度的催化甲烷分解(CMD)代替高温蒸汽甲烷重整(SMR)的重要性。此外,形成的碳具有纳米管性质,高工业需求。为了避免对活性催化剂物种使用惰性载体,例如,Al2O3为Fe,导致载体碎片和催化剂焦化逐渐污染催化剂,本研究调查了使用碳纳米管(CNTs)作为铁载体。在700°C下连续操作40小时,平均CH4转化率为75-85%。甲烷转化产生的CNT由于其与催化剂本身的堆积密度差(~120kg/m3)(~1500kg/m3),可以通过携带从催化剂床中连续去除。CNT性质是完全指定的。不需要催化剂的热再生。初步的工艺布局和经济分析证明了该工艺的可扩展性以及H2和CNT的非常有竞争力的生产成本。
    Methane, either as natural gas or as a resource obtained from various bioprocesses (e.g., digestion, landfill) can be converted to carbon and hydrogen according to. CH4(g)→C(s)+2H2(g)ΔH298K=74.8kJ/mol. Previous research has stressed the growing importance of substituting the high-temperature Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) by a moderate temperature Catalytic Methane Decomposition (CMD). The carbon formed is moreover of nanotube nature, in high industrial demand. To avoid the use of an inert support for the active catalyst species, e.g., Al2O3 for Fe, leading to a progressive contamination of the catalyst by support debris and coking of the catalyst, the present research investigates the use of carbon nanotubes (CNTs) as Fe-support. Average CH4 conversions of 75-85% are obtained at 700 °C for a continuous operation of 40 h. The produced CNT from the methane conversion can be continuously removed from the catalyst bed by carry-over due to its bulk density difference (∼120 kg/m3) with the catalyst itself (∼1500 kg/m3). CNT properties are fully specified. No thermal regeneration of the catalyst is required. A tentative process layout and economic analysis demonstrate the scalability of the process and the very competitive production costs of H2 and CNT.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    本EBCOG指南回顾了胎儿和母体医学中基因组学的当前和未来状况。本文件介绍了基因检测在产前筛查和诊断测试中的临床应用。描述了基因组学在胎儿和母体医学中的作用。基因检测的研究和未来的意义以及教育,讨论了基因组学的伦理和经济意义。
    This EBCOG guidance reviews the current and future status of genomics within fetal and maternal medicine. This document addresses the clinical uses of genetic testing in both screening and diagnostic testing prenatally. The role of genomics within fetal and maternal medicine is described. The research and future implications of genetic testing as well as the educational, ethical and economic implications of genomics are discussed.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    空气污染是许多城市面临的挑战。数字经济增强了对环境污染管理的支持,虽然机制和尺度异质性仍不清楚。本研究探讨了数字经济发展对中国PM2.5浓度控制的贡献以及不同经济分区域和城市群的驱动机制。结果表明,在不同尺度下,溢出转移对空气污染缓解的影响远远超过直接影响。在全国范围内,数字经济的大气污染缓解效应主要通过赋能产业结构优化和绿色技术创新,虽然它也通过路径与结构优化的不同情景组合影响了经济次区域和城市群,绿色生产,资源分配,和技术创新。研究结果为数字经济和空气质量的跨区域联合管理策略以及在数字经济维度上设计区域差异化的污染控制路径提供了支持。
    Air pollution is a challenge for many cities. The digital economy enhances support for environmental pollution management, while the mechanisms and scaling heterogeneity remain unclear. This study explored the contribution of digital economy development to PM2.5 concentrations control in China and driving mechanisms in different economic subregions and urban agglomerations. Results show that the spillover transfer effect on air pollution mitigation far exceeded the direct effect at different scales. At the national scale, the air pollution mitigation effect of digital economy was mainly through empowering industrial structure optimization and green technology innovation, while it also affected economic subregions and urban agglomerations through varying scenario combinations of pathways with structural optimization, green production, resource allocation, and technology innovation. Research findings provide support for cross-regional joint management strategies of digital economy and air quality and designing regionally differentiated pollution control pathways in the digital economy dimension.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    我们的社会的特点是短期目标之间的紧张关系,比如经济增长,和长期可持续发展目标,包括缓解资源枯竭。在这样一个竞争激烈的环境中,至关重要的是要确定一个系统是否能保持长期的生存能力,如果是,how.本文旨在通过分析可持续发展问题如何通过游戏随着时间的推移而变化,从而增强对这一问题的理解。以及这种变化对系统最终状态的影响。利用游戏的洞察力,我们实施基于代理的模型来引发短期目标和可持续性之间的紧张关系,强调个体行为对整个系统的影响。模拟结果表明,崩溃的可能性取决于资源的可用性以及收集和利用有关这些资源的信息的方式。最后,本文提出了管理这种系统的实践建议。
    Our society is marked by a tension between short-term objectives, such as economic growth, and long-term sustainability goals, including mitigating resource depletion. In such a competitive setting, it is crucial to ascertain whether a system can maintain long-term viability and, if so, how. This article aims to enhance the understanding of this issue by analyzing how sustainability concerns change over time by means of a game, and the effect of this variation on the final status of a system. Leveraging insights from the game, we implement an agent-based model to elicit the tension between short-term objectives and sustainability, emphasizing the influence of individual actions on the overall system. The simulation results suggest that the likelihood of a collapse is contingent upon the availability of resources and the manner in which information regarding these resources is gathered and utilized. Finally, the paper proposes practical suggestions for managing this kind of system.
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  • 文章类型: Historical Article
    暂无摘要。
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:最近的研究,包括紧张审判,支持在伴有大面积梗死的急性缺血性卒中中中使用血管内血栓切除术(EVT)(Alberta卒中计划早期计算机断层扫描评分(ASPECTS)3-5).
    目的:从德国医疗保健支付者的角度评估EVT与仅在该人群中的最佳医疗保健(BMC)的成本效益。
    方法:使用短期决策树和长期马尔可夫模型(生命周期)来比较EVT和BMC之间的医疗保健成本和质量调整生命年(QALYs)。EVT的有效性由TENSION试验的90天改良Rankin量表(mRS)结果反映。QALY基于已发布的mRS特定卫生实用程序(EQ-5D-3L指数)。长期医疗费用是根据保险数据计算的。成本(以2022欧元报告)和QALY每年折扣3%。使用增量成本效益比(ICER)评估成本效益。进行确定性和概率敏感性分析以考虑参数不确定性。
    结果:与BMC相比,EVT产生了更高的终身增量成本(€24257)和效果(1.41QALYs),导致ICER为17158欧元/QALY。结果对敏感性分析中的参数变化是稳健的(例如,在愿意支付>22000欧元/QALY的情况下,实现了95%的成本效益概率)。亚组分析表明,所有ASPECTS亚组的EVT均具有成本效益。
    结论:与BMC相比,EVT对于已确定的大面积梗死的急性缺血性卒中可能具有成本效益。假设医疗保健付款人认为额外投资17158欧元/QALY是可以接受的。
    BACKGROUND: Recent studies, including the TENSION trial, support the use of endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) in acute ischemic stroke with large infarct (Alberta Stroke Program Early Computed Tomography Score (ASPECTS) 3-5).
    OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of EVT compared with best medical care (BMC) alone in this population from a German healthcare payer perspective.
    METHODS: A short-term decision tree and a long-term Markov model (lifetime horizon) were used to compare healthcare costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) between EVT and BMC. The effectiveness of EVT was reflected by the 90-day modified Rankin Scale (mRS) outcome from the TENSION trial. QALYs were based on published mRS-specific health utilities (EQ-5D-3L indices). Long-term healthcare costs were calculated based on insurance data. Costs (reported in 2022 euros) and QALYs were discounted by 3% annually. Cost-effectiveness was assessed using incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to account for parameter uncertainties.
    RESULTS: Compared with BMC, EVT yielded higher lifetime incremental costs (€24 257) and effects (1.41 QALYs), resulting in an ICER of €17 158/QALY. The results were robust to parameter variation in sensitivity analyses (eg, 95% probability of cost-effectiveness was achieved at a willingness to pay of >€22 000/QALY). Subgroup analyses indicated that EVT was cost-effective for all ASPECTS subgroups.
    CONCLUSIONS: EVT for acute ischemic stroke with established large infarct is likely to be cost-effective compared with BMC, assuming that an additional investment of €17 158/QALY is deemed acceptable by the healthcare payer.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:关于人道主义背景下亲密伴侣暴力(IPV)的经济影响知之甚少,尤其是劳动力市场的负担。检查IPV超出健康负担的成本可能会提供新的信息,以帮助解决IPV的资源分配,包括在冲突地区。本文测定了不同类型IPV的发病率和患病率,IPV与劳动力市场活动之间的潜在关系,并估计这些与IPV相关的劳动力市场差异的成本。
    方法:劳动力市场结果之间的关联,IPV经验,使用2018年尼日利亚人口与健康调查和2013-17年乌普萨拉冲突数据计划数据研究了尼日利亚15-49岁女性的冲突暴露。描述性分析用于按地区识别IPV和分娩结果的模式。基于此,使用多变量逻辑回归模型来估计劳动力市场参与与终生IPV暴露之间的关系。这些模型与联合国《2021/2022年人类发展报告》的收入数据以及自上而下的成本计算方法相结合,以量化生产率损失对尼日利亚经济的影响。
    结果:在受冲突影响地区和非受冲突影响地区之间,IPV暴露和劳动力市场结果存在显著差异。过去一年或一生暴露于身体的女性,情感,或者“任何”IPV在过去一年更有可能退出劳动力市场,尽管在性IPV或受冲突影响的地区没有发现差异。我们估计工作的可能性平均减少4.14%,导致近30亿美元的生产力损失,约占尼日利亚经济总量的1%。
    结论:劳动力市场退出的几率增加与IPV的几个指标有关。从正规劳动力市场部门撤出对整个尼日利亚社会都有巨大的相关经济成本。如果采取更强有力的预防措施减少尼日利亚针对妇女的IPV发病率,大部分损失的经济成本可能会被收回。这些成本强调了经济情况,除了道德要求之外,加强对尼日利亚女孩和妇女的IPV保护。
    BACKGROUND: Little is known regarding economic impacts of intimate partner violence (IPV) in humanitarian settings, especially the labor market burden. Examining costs of IPV beyond the health burden may provide new information to help with resource allocation for addressing IPV, including within conflict zones. This paper measures the incidence and prevalence of different types of IPV, the potential relationship between IPV and labor market activity, and estimating the cost of these IPV-associated labor market differentials.
    METHODS: The association between labor market outcomes, IPV experience, and conflict exposure among women ages 15-49 in Nigeria were studied using the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey and 2013-17 Uppsala Conflict Data Program data. Descriptive analysis was used to identify patterns of IPV and labor outcomes by region. Based on this, multivariable logistic regression models were used to estimate the association between labor market participation and lifetime IPV exposure. These models were combined with earnings data from the United Nations Human Development Report 2021/2022 and a top-down costing approach to quantify the impacts in terms of lost productivity to the Nigerian economy.
    RESULTS: Substantial differences in IPV exposure and labor market outcomes were found between conflict and non-conflict-affected areas. Women with past year or lifetime exposure to physical, emotional, or \"any\" IPV were more likely to withdraw from the labor market in the past year, although no differences were found for sexual IPV or conflict-affected regions. We estimate an average reduction of 4.14% in the likelihood of working, resulting in nearly $3.0 billion USD of lost productivity, about 1% of Nigeria\'s total economic output.
    CONCLUSIONS: Increased odds of labor market withdraw were associated with several measures of IPV. Withdrawal from the formal labor market sector has a substantial associated economic cost for all of Nigerian society. If stronger prevention measures reduce the incidence of IPV against women in Nigeria, a substantial portion of lost economic costs likely could be reclaimed. These costs underscore the economic case, alongside the moral imperative, for stronger protections against IPV for girls and women in Nigeria.
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