Economics

经济学
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    人口标准化指标(例如,人均国内生产总值),在指标与人口线性缩放的假设下,普遍用于国家发展绩效比较。这个假设,然而,是无效的,因为它可能会忽略社会经济系统中非线性相互作用产生的集聚效应。这里,我们提供了大量的经验证据,表明人口与国家发展绩效的多个指标之间存在次线性缩放比例,而不是假定的线性缩放比例。然后,我们根据城市中观察到的缩放规则开发了一个理论框架,以探索国家缩放的起源。最后,我们证明,城市化在将国家发展从有限的次线性增长转变为无限的超线性增长中起着关键作用。这强调了城市化在实现持续增长和提高国家一级人类生活水平方面的重要性。我们的调查结果有可能为旨在促进国家间公平比较和实现各国可持续发展的政策提供信息。
    Population-normalized indicators (e.g., GDP per capita), under the assumption of the indicators scaling linearly with population, are ubiquitously used in national development performance comparison. This assumption, however, is not valid because it may ignore agglomeration effect resulting from nonlinear interactions in socioeconomic systems. Here, we present extensive empirical evidence showing the sub-linear scaling rather than the presumed linear scaling between population and multiple indicators of national development performance. We then develop a theoretical framework based on the scaling rule observed in cities to explore the origin of scaling in countries. Finally, we demonstrate that urbanization plays a pivotal role in transforming national development from limited sub-linear growth to unlimited super-linear growth. This underscores the significance of urbanization in achieving sustained growth and elevating human living standards at the national level. Our findings have the potential to inform policies aimed at promoting equitable inter-country comparison and achieving sustainable development in countries.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    牲畜提供肉,牛奶,劳动力,用于繁殖,并充当小农的价值储备。较高的年轻种群死亡率(YSM)有可能造成重大的经济损失。青年种群死亡率降低协会合作开展了一个项目,提供一揽子基本的健康和畜牧业干预措施,以减少埃塞俄比亚混合和牧区生产系统中牛和小反刍动物的YSM。在干预之前,混合系统中小牛的YSM率为9.8%,牧区系统中的小反刍动物为35.6%。干预措施的YSM减少比例为小牛和混合系统中的小反刍动物的60%,牧区小牛的比例为72%。这份简短的研究报告评估了事后干预的成本和收益,以确定其效率。干预措施的NPV(每个家庭)是在一系列受益期(从1年到20年)计算的,根据培训统计员和农民的成本以及每个福利期内实现的年度家庭福利净额。我们发现,在牧区和混合系统中,干预措施的年度家庭净收益均为正。对于牧民家庭,干预在2年后达到了正的净现值。对于混合家庭,干预措施在11年后实现了正的净现值。总的来说,我们发现干预的好处超过了成本,在牧区系统中大量存在,对于拥有大量繁殖雌性的家庭来说,这种好处更大。
    Livestock provide meat, milk, draught labour, are used for breeding, and act as a store of value for smallholder farmers. High young stock mortality (YSM) has the potential to cause significant financial loss. The Young Stock Mortality Reduction Consortium collaborated on a project to deliver a package of basic health and husbandry interventions to reduce YSM for cattle and small ruminants in mixed and pastoral production systems in Ethiopia. Prior to the intervention, YSM rates ranged from 9.8% for calves in mixed systems, to 35.6% for small ruminants in pastoral systems. Proportional reductions YSM from the intervention ranged from 60% for calves and for small ruminants in mixed systems, to 72% for calves in pastoral systems. This brief research report assesses the costs and benefits of the intervention ex-poste to determine its efficiency. NPVs for the intervention (per household) were calculated for a range of benefit periods (from 1 to 20 years), based on the cost of training enumerators and farmers and the net annual household benefits realised within each benefit period. We found in both pastoral and mixed systems the net annual household benefit for the intervention was positive. For pastoral households the intervention achieves a positive NPV after 2 years. For mixed households the intervention achieves a positive NPV after 11 years. Overall, we found the benefits of the intervention exceed the costs, by a very large amount in pastoral systems, and that benefits were larger for households that kept larger numbers of breeding females.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在英国,社会护理部门的需求正在上升,加上资金大幅减少,难以满足这些需求。这篇由两部分组成的评论的目的是对证据基础进行批判性评估,以解决对健康和社会护理日益增长的需求。第1部分重点介绍了有关高收入国家老年人利用社会护理和医疗保健的可用性和供应之间的关系的系统回顾的证据。
    基于以下系统综述的证据摘要:SpiersG,马修斯·费,MoffattS,巴克RO,贾维斯·H,收起D,金斯敦A,HanrattyB(2019)社会护理供应对老年人医疗保健利用的影响:系统评价和荟萃分析。年龄和老龄化48(1):57-66。https://doi.org/10.1093/aging/afy147.
    In the United Kingdom, demand on the social care sector is rising coupled with a significant reduction in funding making it difficult to meet these needs. The aim of this two-part commentary is to provide a critical evaluation of the evidence base in relation to solutions to tackle the growing demands on health and social care. Part 1 focuses on the evidence from a systematic review around the association between the availability and supply of social care and healthcare on utilisation for older adults in high income countries.
    UNASSIGNED: An evidence summary based on the following systematic review:Spiers G, Matthews FE, Moffatt S, Barker RO, Jarvis H, Stow D, Kingston A, Hanratty B (2019) Impact of social care supply on healthcare utilisation by older adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Age and Ageing 48(1):57-66. https://doi.org/10.1093/ageing/afy147.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    本研究提出了一个基于有向无环图(DAG)的广义方差分解框架,用于调查2011年至2023年中国34家上市金融机构中金融系统的异质收益溢出效应,并衡量金融机构的系统重要性。研究结果表明,由于同时期的因果关系,同一部门内的机构之间存在明显的信息溢出效应。静态和动态金融网络分析都突出了证券行业的重要性。动态结构特征与宏观经济发展相一致,对内外部冲击敏感。系统重要性评估表明,市场规模本身并不能决定重要性,银行业和非银行部门之间存在显著差异。国有和股份制商业银行在银行业中发挥着至关重要的作用,而地方政府和私人资本控制的机构在证券领域至关重要。这项研究有助于监管努力保持平衡的监管环境,确保市场效率,降低运营成本。
    This study proposes a directed acyclic graph (DAG)-based framework for generalized variance decomposition for investigating the heterogeneous return spillovers in financial system and measuring the systemic importance of financial institutions among 34 listed Chinese financial institutions from 2011 to 2023. Findings indicate pronounced information spillovers among institutions within the same sector due to contemporaneous causal relationships. Both static and dynamic financial network analyses highlight the significance of the securities sector. Dynamic structural characteristics align with macroeconomic development and are sensitive to internal and external shocks. Systemic importance assessment reveals that market size alone doesn\'t determine importance, with notable disparities between banking and non-banking sectors. State-owned and joint-stock commercial banks play a vital role in banking, while local government and private capital-controlled institutions are crucial in the securities sector. This research aids regulatory efforts in maintaining a balanced regulatory environment, ensuring market efficiency, and reducing operational costs.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    黄花蒿(AA),用作家禽的生长促进剂,降低饲料成本,提高经济效益。本研究旨在评估不同AA浓度对肉鸡生长的影响,基因表达,和盈利能力。
    将200只1日龄的Cobb雄性小鸡随机分为四个治疗组,每个包含5个重复和10只鸟。实验组由G1(基础饮食)组成,G2(含0.3%AA的基础饮食),G3(含0.6%AA的基础饮食),和G4(含0.9%AA的基础饮食)。在整个研究过程中,鸟类可以连续获取饲料和水。实验持续了42天。我们测量了生长性能(饲料摄入量,Lifeweight),屠体性状(屠宰后的体重,穿着的尸体,心,Gizzard,脾,脾内脏和胸腺重量),肝脏和脾脏抗氧化剂(CAT,GSH,SOD),以及抗炎和免疫相关基因的基因表达。
    主要发现表明,与对照组和其他组相比,添加0.6%AA对所有调查变量都有积极影响(p<0.05)。膳食补充0.6%AA导致乳房增加,giblet,骷髅,和总产量,和净收益率与对照组相比。补充AA表现出抗氧化剂,抗炎,通过提高抗氧化超氧化物歧化酶(SOD)的水平,过氧化氢酶(CAT),肝脏和脾脏组织匀浆中的谷胱甘肽过氧化物酶(GSH-Px)。它还上调了抗炎白细胞介素(IL)-10,SOD的相对信使RNA水平,CAT,和GSH-Px,而IL-1β和肿瘤坏死因子-α下调。
    研究发现,AA是家禽养殖中抗生素的有希望的替代品,可作为鸡的生长促进剂。0.6%AA在肉鸡日粮中产生了最好的结果,在卓越的性能和强大的经济效益之间取得平衡。
    UNASSIGNED: Artemisia annua (AA), used as a growth promoter in poultry, lowers feed costs and enhances economic efficiency. This study aimed to assess the impact of varying AA concentrations on broiler chicken growth, gene expression, and profitability.
    UNASSIGNED: Two hundred 1-day-old male Cobb chicks were randomly allocated into four treatment groups, each containing five replicates and 10 birds. The experimental groups consisted of G1 (basal diet), G2 (basal diet with 0.3% AA), G3 (basal diet with 0.6% AA), and G4 (basal diet with 0.9% AA). The birds had continuous access to feed and water throughout the study. The experiment lasted for 42 days. We measured the growth performance (Feed intake, Life weight), carcass traits (weight after slaughter, dressed carcass, heart, gizzard, spleen, giblet and thymus weight), liver and spleen antioxidants (CAT, GSH, SOD), and gene expression of anti-inflammatory and immune- related genes.
    UNASSIGNED: The primary findings revealed that the addition of 0.6% AA had a positive impact (p < 0.05) on all investigated variables compared with the control and other groups. Dietary supplementation with 0.6% AA led to increased breast, giblet, skeleton, and total yield, and net return compared with the control group. Supplementation with AA exhibited antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, and immunological effects through improved levels of antioxidant superoxide dismutase (SOD), catalase (CAT), and glutathione peroxidase (GSH-Px) in tissue homogenates of the liver and spleen. It also upregulated the relative messenger RNA levels of anti-inflammatory interleukin (IL)-10, SOD, CAT, and GSH-Px, whereas IL-1β and tumor necrosis factor-alpha were downregulated.
    UNASSIGNED: The study found that AA is a promising replacement for antibiotics in poultry farming as a growth promoter for chickens. 0.6% AA in the broiler diet yielded the best results, striking a balance between superior performance and robust economic benefits.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    为了更有效地发现和应对新出现的疾病,需要将综合监测战略应用于人类和动物健康。亚洲国家/地区的当前计划分别针对这两个部门进行,主要涉及检测代表短期疾病威胁的事件。仅仅投资于发现新出现的疾病是不现实的,或者仅仅依靠基于事件的监控。需要一个全面的战略,同时调查和管理地方性人畜共患病,研究由于人口和气候变化等影响而改变其特征和重要性的不断变化的疾病,并加强对可能影响新病原体出现的因素的理解。这需要使用近年来已经可用但尚未完全使用的其他调查工具。到目前为止,还没有完全形成的蓝图可以在亚洲国家应用。因此,提出了三步走的途径,以实现全面的“一个健康”疾病监测和应对的目标。
    To detect and respond to emerging diseases more effectively, an integrated surveillance strategy needs to be applied to both human and animal health. Current programs in Asian countries operate separately for the two sectors and are principally concerned with detection of events that represent a short-term disease threat. It is not realistic to either invest only in efforts to detect emerging diseases, or to rely solely on event-based surveillance. A comprehensive strategy is needed, concurrently investigating and managing endemic zoonoses, studying evolving diseases which change their character and importance due to influences such as demographic and climatic change, and enhancing understanding of factors which are likely to influence the emergence of new pathogens. This requires utilisation of additional investigation tools that have become available in recent years but are not yet being used to full effect. As yet there is no fully formed blueprint that can be applied in Asian countries. Hence a three-step pathway is proposed to move towards the goal of comprehensive One Health disease surveillance and response.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    重症监护病房(ICU)成本估算对于实现医疗保健系统的效率和可持续性至关重要。我们旨在回顾澳大利亚已发表的描述ICU费用的文献。
    进行了系统评价,以确定评估澳大利亚ICU护理费用的研究。排除在特定患者队列或特定治疗中进行的研究。
    相关研究来自先前发表的评论(1970-2016),对MEDLINE和EMBASE的系统搜索(2016-2023年5月5日),和参考检查。
    开发了一种工具来评估研究质量和偏倚风险(最高分57/57)。总成本和组成部分成本以2022年澳元为表列和索引。总结了成本计算方法和研究质量评估。
    六项成本计算研究符合纳入标准。研究质量得分较低(15/41至35/47)。大多数研究仅在第三大城市公共ICU中进行;样本量从100到10,204名患者不等。一项研究使用了过去10年收集的数据。平均每日ICU费用从966美元到5381美元不等,平均ICU总住院费用从4888美元到14,606美元不等。三项研究使用了自上而下的成本计算方法,从预算报告中得出成本估算。其他三项研究使用了自下而上和自上而下的成本计算方法。自下而上的方法收集了个体患者的资源使用。
    可用的ICU成本估算在很大程度上已经过时,缺乏细粒度数据。需要未来的研究来估计ICU成本,以更好地反映当前的实践和患者的复杂性,并确定生成这些估计的最佳方法。
    UNASSIGNED: Intensive care unit (ICU) cost estimates are critical to achieving healthcare system efficiency and sustainability. We aimed to review the published literature describing ICU costs in Australia.
    UNASSIGNED: A systematic review was conducted to identify studies that estimated the cost of ICU care in Australia. Studies conducted in specific patient cohorts or on specific treatments were excluded.
    UNASSIGNED: Relevant studies were sourced from a previously published review (1970-2016), a systematic search of MEDLINE and EMBASE (2016-5 May 2023), and reference checking.
    UNASSIGNED: A tool was developed to assess study quality and risk of bias (maximum score 57/57). Total and component costs were tabulated and indexed to 2022 Australian Dollars. Costing methodologies and study quality assessments were summarised.
    UNASSIGNED: Six costing studies met the inclusion criteria. Study quality scores were low (15/41 to 35/47). Most studies were conducted only in tertiary metropolitan public ICUs; sample sizes ranged from 100 to 10,204 patients. One study used data collected within the past 10 years. Mean daily ICU costs ranged from $966 to $5381 and mean total ICU admission costs $4888 to $14,606. Three studies used a top-down costing approach, deriving cost estimates from budget reports. The other three studies used both bottom-up and top-down costing approaches. Bottom-up approaches collected individual patient resource use.
    UNASSIGNED: Available ICU cost estimates are largely outdated and lack granular data. Future research is needed to estimate ICU costs that better reflect current practice and patient complexity and to determine the best methods for generating these estimates.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    保持可靠的能源供应,应对极端天气,水资源短缺以及电力和制冷需求的增加对于成功实施清洁能源转型至关重要。在几个极度干旱的国家发现的综合电力和水系统,具有冷却驱动的电力需求和几乎完全依赖海水淡化的特点,提供案例研究,说明能源系统对这些条件的鲁棒性。我们使用线性优化来在基于阿拉伯联合酋长国(UAE)面向弹性的能源系统的模型系统中最小化成本,同时逐步使能源组合脱碳。我们证明,在保守的未来技术成本假设下,高水平的可再生能源采用在经济上是有利的,甚至包括严格的弹性要求,并为在具有挑战性的气候条件下向可再生能源过渡的其他能源系统得出结论,特别是关于海水淡化的作用,需求灵活性,储能,以及确保可再生主导系统的弹性的常规设计规则的适用性。
    Maintaining reliable energy supplies with resilience to extreme weather, water shortage and rising electricity and cooling demand is crucial to successfully implementing the clean energy transition. The integrated power and water systems found in several hyper-arid countries, featuring cooling-driven electrical demand and near-total dependence on seawater desalination, offer case studies illustrating energy system robustness to these conditions. We use linear optimization to minimize costs in a model system based on the resiliency-oriented energy system of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) while progressively decarbonizing the energy mix. We demonstrate that high levels of renewable energy adoption are economically favorable under conservative future technology cost assumptions, even including strict resiliency requirements, and draw conclusions for other energy systems making the transition to renewable energy under challenging climatic conditions, especially regarding the role of water desalination, demand flexibility, energy storage, and suitability of conventional design rules for ensuring resilience in renewable-dominated systems.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    BACKGROUND: Adherence to TB drugs is crucial for improving treatment outcomes. Digital adherence technologies can improve adherence; however, there is a lack of evidence on cost-effectiveness. This study aimed to explore the cost-effectiveness of medication event reminder monitors (MERM) in China compared with the standard of care, using results from a pragmatic, cluster-randomised superiority trial of an electronic MERM in China.
    METHODS: We collected primary unit cost data from the societal perspective, both at and above the health facility level. We estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness of MERM using a Markov model with a 20-year time horizon; a 3% discount rate was applied to costs and outcomes. We explored uncertainty through a series of sensitivity and scenario analyses.
    RESULTS: The incremental cost of MERM was $27.22 per patient. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed significant uncertainty about the intervention\'s cost-effectiveness. Changing assumptions around key parameters substantially affected our estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio.
    CONCLUSIONS: Although the incremental cost of the MERM box was low, current evidence does not indicate that the intervention would be cost-effective. However, the intervention\'s cost-effectiveness could improve if implemented as part of a broader strategy, including enhanced patient management.
    BACKGROUND: Il est crucial de respecter les médicaments antituberculeux pour améliorer les résultats du traitement. Les technologies numériques peuvent améliorer l\'observance, mais il existe un manque de preuves sur leur rapport coût-efficacité. Cette étude a examiné le rapport coût-efficacité des moniteurs de rappel d\'événements médicamenteux (MERM, pour l’anglais, « medication event reminder monitors ») en Chine par rapport aux soins standards, en se basant sur les résultats d\'un essai pragmatique randomisé en grappes d\'un MERM électronique en Chine.
    UNASSIGNED: Les coûts unitaires primaires du point de vue de la société ont été collectés et analysés à la fois au niveau de l\'établissement de santé et au-delà. Pour évaluer le rapport coût-efficacité différentiel du MERM, nous avons utilisé un modèle de Markov sur une période de 20 ans, en appliquant un taux d\'actualisation de 3% aux coûts et aux résultats. Afin de prendre en compte les incertitudes, nous avons effectué plusieurs analyses de sensibilité et de scénarios.
    UNASSIGNED: Le coût supplémentaire du MERM s\'élevait à 27,22 $ par patient. L\'analyse de sensibilité probabiliste a révélé une incertitude importante concernant le rapport coût-efficacité de l\'intervention. La variation des hypothèses liées aux paramètres clés a eu un impact significatif sur le rapport coût-efficacité différentiel estimé.
    CONCLUSIONS: Bien que le coût différentiel de la boîte MERM soit faible, les données actuelles n\'indiquent pas que l\'intervention serait rentable. Toutefois, le rapport coût-efficacité de l\'intervention pourrait être amélioré si elle était mise en œuvre dans le cadre d\'une stratégie plus large, comprenant une meilleure prise en charge des patients.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    环境污染(EP)与技术创新之间的联系对于实现可持续发展至关重要。然而,现有文献较少关注环境管理中高质量创新(HI)的新形式。本文利用2008-2020年中国31个省份的面板数据,采用两阶段最小二乘法考察了HI与EP之间的关系。实证结果表明,HI能有效降低EP,经过多次稳健性测试后,这种影响在中国南方更为明显。同时,HI推动清洁高效的能源转型,降低EP。此外,环境规制的增加削弱了HI对EP的影响。本研究的主要贡献是构建了一个包括创新在内的HI指数,人力资本,以及政府的支持,并考察其对中国EP的影响。调查结果鼓励政府实施创新驱动型转型政策,节能减排。
    The nexus between environmental pollution (EP) and technological innovation is crucial for achieving sustainable development. However, existing literature has paid less attention to the new form of high-quality innovation (HI) in environmental management. This paper uses panel data from 31 Chinese provinces from 2008 to 2020, employing the two-stage least squares method to investigate the relationship between HI and EP. The empirical results reveal that HI can effectively reduce the EP, which holds after multiple robustness tests, and this effect is more obvious in southern China. Meanwhile, HI drives clean and efficient energy transition and decreases EP. Moreover, increased environmental regulation weakens the influence of HI on EP. The major contributions of this study are constructing an HI index including innovation, human capital, and government support and examining its influence on EP in China. The findings encourage government to implement policies of innovation-driven transformation, energy conservation and emissions reduction.
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