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Abstract：
The energy transition is a multinational challenge to mitigate climate change, with a joint reduction target for greenhouse gas emissions. Simultaneously, each country is interested in minimizing its own energy supply cost. Still, most energy system models neglect national interests when identifying cost-optimal transition pathways. We design the European energy system transition until 2050, considering competition between countries in a shared electricity and carbon market using bilevel optimization. We find that national objectives substantially impact the transition pathway: Compared to the model solved using the common centralized optimization, the overall installed capacity increases by just 3% when including national interests. However, the distribution of the installed capacity changes dramatically by more than 40% in most countries. Our results underline the risk of miscalculating the need for national capacity expansion when neglecting stakeholder representation in energy system models and demonstrate the need for cooperation for an efficient energy transition.
摘要：
能源转型是缓解气候变化的跨国挑战，与温室气体排放的联合减排目标。同时,每个国家都有兴趣将自己的能源供应成本降至最低。尽管如此，大多数能源系统模型在确定成本最优过渡路径时都忽略了国家利益。我们设计了到2050年的欧洲能源系统过渡，考虑了使用双层优化的共享电力和碳市场中国家之间的竞争。我们发现国家目标对过渡途径有很大影响：与使用通用集中优化求解的模型相比，考虑到国家利益，总装机容量仅增加了3%。然而,在大多数国家，装机容量的分布变化超过40%。我们的结果强调了在忽略能源系统模型中的利益相关者代表时，错误计算国家能力扩展需求的风险，并证明了进行有效能源转型的合作需求。
