欧盟委员会要求EFSA提供科学和技术援助,以确定修订澳大利亚监测计划对其检测微生物污染能力的影响。考虑到这一点,2010年,欧盟委员会确定目前的澳大利亚监测计划相当于欧盟对微生物监测的要求,进一步进行EFSA科学评估,描述了当前和拟议的方案,并使用概率建模方法比较了警报总数。在目前的方案中,仅使用三级移动窗口采样计划监测牛羊尸体,而在拟议的方案中,屠体,散装肉,使用四个两类采样计划监测原始和内脏,并排除沙门氏菌检测。模型显示,当前程序为APC提供了更多的警报,而拟议的监测计划为大肠杆菌提供了更多的警报。对于APC和大肠杆菌的组合,意思是,当前和拟议监测方案中警报总数的不确定性分布的第5百分位数和第95百分位数分别为201[179,227]和172[149,194]牛肉,绵羊和199[175,222]和2897[2795,3008],分别。对于沙门氏菌,拟议方案没有警报,因为抽样被排除在外,而对于当前方案,估计的平均值,5年期间警报数量的不确定性分布的第5百分位数和第95百分位数分别为143[126,144],牛/公牛为1.6[0,4],羔羊为0[0,0]。总的来说,对于APC和大肠杆菌,与当前计划相比,拟议的警报估计总数相似(牛肉)或更高(绵羊)。相比之下,沙门氏菌采样被排除在拟议的方案之外,因此无法检测当前警报的数量。
The European Commission asks scientific and technical assistance from EFSA to determine the impact of the revision of the Australian monitoring programme on its ability to detect microbiological contamination. Considering that, in 2010, the European Commission determined the current Australian monitoring programme to be equivalent to the EU requirements for microbiological monitoring further to an EFSA scientific assessment, the current and proposed programmes were described and the total number of alerts was compared using a probabilistic modelling approach. In the current programme, only
beef and sheep carcasses are monitored using three-class moving window sampling plans, while in the proposed programme, carcass, bulk meat, primal and offal are monitored using four two-class sampling plans and Salmonella testing is excluded. The models revealed that the current programme provides a higher number of alerts for APC, while the proposed monitoring programme provides a higher number of alerts for E. coli. For APC and E. coli combined, the mean, 5th and 95th centiles of the uncertainty distribution of the total number of alerts in the current and the proposed monitoring programme are 201 [179, 227] and 172 [149, 194] for
beef, and 199 [175, 222] and 2897 [2795, 3008] for sheep, respectively. For Salmonella, there are no alerts for the proposed programme since sampling is excluded while for the current programme, the estimated mean, 5th and 95th centiles of the uncertainty distribution of the number of alerts for a 5-year period were 143 [126, 144] for heifer/steer, 1.6 [0, 4] for cow/bull and 0 [0, 0] for lamb/sheep. Overall, for APC and E. coli, the estimated total number of alerts was similar (
beef) or higher (sheep) for the proposed compared to the current programme. In contrast, Salmonella sampling is excluded from the proposed programme and thus cannot detect the number of current alerts.