weather

天气
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:老挝人民民主共和国政府加大了控制疟疾传播的力度,以便到2030年达到其国家消除疟疾的目标。天气会影响疟疾传播动态,在评估消除干预措施的影响时应予以考虑,但这种关系在老挝人民民主共和国尚未得到很好的表征。这项研究调查了2010年至2022年气候变量与恶性疟原虫和间日疟原虫疟疾发病率之间的时空关联。
    方法:时空贝叶斯模型用于调查月度关系,和模型选择标准用于评估模型的性能和天气变量规格。由于在研究期间,疟疾控制和消除情况在空间和时间上是动态的,该协会每年在省一级进行审查。
    结果:从2010年到2022年,恶性疟原虫和间日疟原虫的疟疾发病率均下降,并且集中在南部地区。在研究期间,降雨和最大湿度被确定为与疟疾最密切相关。在2010-2011年期间,北部和中部地区的降雨与恶性疟原虫的发病率有关,在2012-2015年期间,北部和中部地区的降雨与间日疟原虫的发病率有关。最大湿度与南部的恶性疟原虫和间日疟原虫的发病率持续相关。
    结论:疟疾在老挝人民民主共和国仍然普遍存在,尤其是在南方,与天气的关系因地区而异,但这两个物种的降雨和最大湿度都最强。在天气条件合适的高峰期,病媒控制活动和提高公众对正确使用干预措施的认识,如室内残留喷涂和个人防护,应该优先考虑。
    BACKGROUND: The government of Lao PDR has increased efforts to control malaria transmission in order to reach its national elimination goal by 2030. Weather can influence malaria transmission dynamics and should be considered when assessing the impact of elimination interventions but this relationship has not been well characterized in Lao PDR. This study examined the space-time association between climate variables and Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria incidence from 2010 to 2022.
    METHODS: Spatiotemporal Bayesian modelling was used to investigate the monthly relationship, and model selection criteria were used to evaluate the performance of the models and weather variable specifications. As the malaria control and elimination situation was spatially and temporally dynamic during the study period, the association was examined annually at the provincial level.
    RESULTS: Malaria incidence decreased from 2010 to 2022 and was concentrated in the southern regions for both P. falciparum and P. vivax. Rainfall and maximum humidity were identified as most strongly associated with malaria during the study period. Rainfall was associated with P. falciparum incidence in the north and central regions during 2010-2011, and with P. vivax incidence in the north and central regions during 2012-2015. Maximum humidity was persistently associated with P. falciparum and P. vivax incidence in the south.
    CONCLUSIONS: Malaria remains prevalent in Lao PDR, particularly in the south, and the relationship with weather varies between regions but was strongest for rainfall and maximum humidity for both species. During peak periods with suitable weather conditions, vector control activities and raising public health awareness on the proper usage of intervention measures, such as indoor residual spraying and personal protection, should be prioritized.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    许多呼吸道病毒及其相关疾病对气象因素敏感。对于SARS-CoV-2和COVID-19,关于这种敏感性的证据是不一致的。了解气象因素对SARS-CoV-2传播和COVID-19流行病学的影响有助于提高大流行准备。
    这篇综述旨在研究有关气象因素与SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19之间关系的最新证据。
    我们对2020年1月至2023年1月发表的关于温度之间关联的同行评审研究进行了全球范围审查太阳辐射,降水,湿度,湿度风速,和大气压和SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19。
    从9,156条初始记录中,我们纳入了474项相关研究.对SARS-CoV-2的实验研究提供了一致的证据,表明较高的温度和太阳辐射会对病毒的生存能力产生负面影响。关于COVID-19(流行病学)的研究大多是观察性的,提供的证据不太一致。几项研究考虑了气象因素或人口统计学或空气污染等其他变量之间的相互作用。所有出版物都没有从整体上包括所有决定因素。
    短期气象因素与SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19动力学之间的关联很复杂。环境和社会组成部分之间的相互作用需要进一步考虑。更综合的研究方法可以提供有价值的见解,以预测具有大流行潜力的呼吸道病毒的动态。
    UNASSIGNED: Many respiratory viruses and their associated diseases are sensitive to meteorological factors. For SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19, evidence on this sensitivity is inconsistent. Understanding the influence of meteorological factors on SARS-CoV-2 transmission and COVID-19 epidemiology can help to improve pandemic preparedness.
    UNASSIGNED: This review aimed to examine the recent evidence about the relation between meteorological factors and SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19.
    UNASSIGNED: We conducted a global scoping review of peer-reviewed studies published from January 2020 up to January 2023 about the associations between temperature, solar radiation, precipitation, humidity, wind speed, and atmospheric pressure and SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19.
    UNASSIGNED: From 9,156 initial records, we included 474 relevant studies. Experimental studies on SARS-CoV-2 provided consistent evidence that higher temperatures and solar radiation negatively affect virus viability. Studies on COVID-19 (epidemiology) were mostly observational and provided less consistent evidence. Several studies considered interactions between meteorological factors or other variables such as demographics or air pollution. None of the publications included all determinants holistically.
    UNASSIGNED: The association between short-term meteorological factors and SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 dynamics is complex. Interactions between environmental and social components need further consideration. A more integrated research approach can provide valuable insights to predict the dynamics of respiratory viruses with pandemic potential.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    以前的相关和建模方法表明环境因素对COVID-19通过大气条件传播的影响,对病毒存活和传播或宿主易感性的影响。然而,环境因素与大流行的因果关系,由人类流动性介导,受到的关注较少。我们使用收敛交叉映射技术来识别因果连接,除了国家一级的相关性之外,在与天气状况相关的变量对之间,人类流动性,以及32个欧洲州的COVID-19病例数。这里,我们提供了基于数据的证据,证明北欧登记的病例数量相对减少与降水对人们决定在家中花费更多时间的因果影响有关,而在南欧观察到的病例数量相对较多与人们选择在温暖的日子里在户外花费时间有关.我们还强调大流行对人类流动产生重大影响的渠道。这里推断的天气与人类的流动性联系不仅与COVID-19的传播有关,也与通过人类相互作用传播的任何其他病毒有关。这些结果可能有助于当局和公共卫生专家遏制COVID-19大流行的未来浪潮,或限制类似的人与人之间传播病毒的威胁。
    Previous correlative and modeling approaches indicate influences of environmental factors on COVID-19 spread through atmospheric conditions\' impact on virus survival and transmission or host susceptibility. However, causal connections from environmental factors to the pandemic, mediated by human mobility, received less attention. We use the technique of Convergent Cross Mapping to identify the causal connections, beyond correlation at the country level, between pairs of variables associated with weather conditions, human mobility, and the number of COVID-19 cases for 32 European states. Here, we present data-based evidence that the relatively reduced number of cases registered in Northern Europe is related to the causal impact of precipitation on people\'s decision to spend more time at home and that the relatively large number of cases observed in Southern Europe is linked to people\'s choice to spend time outdoors during warm days. We also emphasize the channels of the significant impact of the pandemic on human mobility. The weather-human mobility connections inferred here are relevant not only for COVID-19 spread but also for any other virus transmitted through human interactions. These results may help authorities and public health experts contain possible future waves of the COVID-19 pandemic or limit the threats of similar human-to-human transmitted viruses.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    尽管定期锻炼人群是衡量中国全民健身活动成功与否的关键指标,增加群众体育参与的有效政策方法仍不清楚。以前的研究表明,GDP,教育程度,体育资源,气象条件可能会影响定期锻炼的参与。因此,本研究首先分析了影响中国规律锻炼人群的宏观层面相关因素。
    我们利用普通最小二乘(OLS)回归和地理加权回归(GWR)来对关系进行理论化。分析包括来自中国大陆31个行政区的数据,在“十三五”期末报告。对数-对数模型使我们能够量化解释变量的边际效应(弹性)。
    OLS回归表明,地区GDP和受过大学教育的人口比例是重要的预测因素。在全局模型中,地区GDP和大学教育的边际效应分别为0.048和0.173。此外,GWR揭示了与经典胡线相对应的独特地理格局。
    虽然地区GDP在我们的模型中也是一个显著的相关性,弹性表明,大学教育对中国正常运动人群的影响是不对称的。因此,本文阐明了即将到来的“十五”计划的政策重点,强调扩大大学教育对增强群众体育参与的战略重要性。反过来,受过良好教育的民众可能会对公共卫生产生重大的二次影响,并有助于中国现代化道路的高质量发展。
    UNASSIGNED: Although the regular exercise population is a key metric for gaging the success of China\'s fitness-for-all activities, effective policy approaches to increase mass sports participation remain unclear. Previous research suggests that GDP, educational attainment, sports resources, and meteorological conditions could influence regular exercise participation. Therefore, this study first analyzed the macro-level correlates influencing China\'s regular exercise population.
    UNASSIGNED: We utilize ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and geographical weighted regression (GWR) to theorize the relationship. The analysis encompasses data from the 31 administrative regions of Mainland China, as reported at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan period. The log-log model enables us to quantify the marginal effect (elasticity) of the explanatory variables.
    UNASSIGNED: The OLS regression showed that regional GDP and the proportion of the population with a university education were significant predictors. In the global model, the marginal effects of regional GDP and university education were 0.048 and 0.173, respectively. Furthermore, the GWR revealed a distinct geographic pattern that corresponds to the classic Hu Line.
    UNASSIGNED: While regional GDP was also a significant correlate in our model, the elasticity demonstrates that university education had an asymmetric effect on China\'s regular exercise population. Therefore, this paper sheds light on a policy priority for the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the strategic importance of expanding university education to enhance mass sports participation. In turn, a better-educated populace may yield significant secondary effects on public health and contribute to the high-quality development of the Chinese path to modernization.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    暂无摘要。
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:天气和季节是体力活动的决定因素。因此,重要的是确保建筑环境的设计能够减轻天气和季节对行人的负面影响,以防止这些损失。本范围审查旨在确定为在特定天气条件或季节使用而开发的行人环境的建筑环境审计。其次,这项审查旨在调查在将相关天气缓解建筑环境特征纳入行人环境审计工具方面的差距。
    方法:遵循标准协议,在CINAHL中进行了系统搜索,Medline和WebofScience确定步行空间的建筑环境审计工具。之所以选择这些数据库,是因为它们众所周知,可以全面涵盖健康以及与健康相关的多学科研究出版物。研究进行了筛选,并且数据由两名独立的审阅者从选定的文档中提取(例如,包括心理测量属性和审计项目)。审核项目进行了筛选,包括天气缓解建筑环境功能,和工具测量温度的能力,降水,计算了对行人的季节性和可持续性影响。
    结果:搜索返回了2823个文档。经过筛选和全文审查,共27篇文章。没有发现专门开发用于特定天气条件或季节的工具。此外,在所有审查维度(热舒适度,降水,季节性,和可持续性项目)。覆盖较差的项目是:(1)热舒适相关(北极进入存在,材料,纹理,和建筑物的颜色,道路,人行道和家具,和绿色设计特征);(2)与降水相关的(排水存在,沟渠存在,危害,和除雪功能);(3)季节性功能(便利设施,行人规模照明,和冬季目的地和美学);和(4)可持续性特征(电动汽车充电站,可再生能源,汽车共享,和自行车共享设施)。
    结论:当前的建筑环境审计工具没有充分包括天气/季节缓解项目。这是一个限制,因为调查在行人空间中包含这些物品是否可以在不利的天气条件下促进身体活动是很重要的。因为气候变化导致极端天气事件增加,需要开发一种新的建筑环境审计工具,其中包括相关的天气缓解功能。
    BACKGROUND: Weather and season are determinants of physical activity. Therefore, it is important to ensure built environments are designed to mitigate negative impacts of weather and season on pedestrians to prevent these losses. This scoping review aims to identify built environment audits of pedestrian environments developed for use during a specific weather condition or season. Secondly, this review aims to investigate gaps in the inclusion of relevant weather mitigating built environment features in pedestrian environment audit tools.
    METHODS: Following a standard protocol, a systematic search was executed in CINAHL, Medline and Web of Science to identify built environment audit tools of pedestrian spaces. These databases were chosen since they are well-known to comprehensively cover health as well as multi-disciplinary research publications relevant to health. Studies were screened, and data were extracted from selected documents by two independent reviewers (e.g., psychometric properties and audit items included). Audit items were screened for the inclusion of weather mitigating built environment features, and the tool\'s capacity to measure temperature, precipitation, seasonal and sustainability impacts on pedestrians was calculated.
    RESULTS: The search returned 2823 documents. After screening and full text review, 27 articles were included. No tool was found that was developed specifically for use during a specific weather condition or season. Additionally, gaps in the inclusion of weather mitigating items were found for all review dimensions (thermal comfort, precipitation, seasonal, and sustainability items). Poorly covered items were: (1) thermal comfort related (arctic entry presence, materials, textures, and colours of buildings, roads, sidewalk and furniture, and green design features); (2) precipitation related (drain presence, ditch presence, hazards, and snow removal features); (3) seasonal features (amenities, pedestrian scale lighting, and winter destinations and aesthetics); and (4) sustainability features (electric vehicle charging stations, renewable energy, car share, and bike share facilities).
    CONCLUSIONS: Current built environment audit tools do not adequately include weather / season mitigating items. This is a limitation as it is important to investigate if the inclusion of these items in pedestrian spaces can promote physical activity during adverse weather conditions. Because climate change is causing increased extreme weather events, a need exists for the development of a new built environment audit tool that includes relevant weather mitigating features.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    公民科学已经成为环境监测的有效方法,利用志愿者的集体努力,以前所未有的规模收集数据。在I-CHANGE项目的框架内,MeteoTracker,公民科学倡议,被用来收集气象测量。通过MeteoTracker,志愿者贡献了一个全面的数据集,能够洞察当地的天气模式和趋势。本文介绍了针对意大利官方民防现场天气网络的此类观测结果的分析和验证结果,证明公民科学在产生有价值的环境数据方面的有效性。这项工作讨论了所采用的方法,包括数据收集和统计分析技术,即,时间序列分析,空间和时间插值,和相关分析。总体分析强调了公民生成数据的高质量和可靠性以及MeteoTracker平台的优势。此外,我们的发现强调了公民科学增强传统监测工作的潜力,为环境研究和管理的决策过程提供信息,提高社会对环境和气候问题的认识。
    Citizen science has emerged as a potent approach for environmental monitoring, leveraging the collective efforts of volunteers to gather data at unprecedented scales. Within the framework of the I-CHANGE project, MeteoTracker, a citizen science initiative, was employed to collect meteorological measurements. Through MeteoTracker, volunteers contributed to a comprehensive dataset, enabling insights into local weather patterns and trends. This paper presents the analysis and the results of the validation of such observations against the official Italian civil protection in situ weather network, demonstrating the effectiveness of citizen science in generating valuable environmental data. The work discusses the methodology employed, including data collection and statistical analysis techniques, i.e., time-series analysis, spatial and temporal interpolation, and correlation analysis. The overall analysis highlights the high quality and reliability of citizen-generated data as well as the strengths of the MeteoTracker platform. Furthermore, our findings underscore the potential of citizen science to augment traditional monitoring efforts, inform decision-making processes in environmental research and management, and improve the social awareness about environmental and climate issues.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    (1)研究背景:气象因素对人体健康有着多方面的影响,影响血栓栓塞事件和中风等疾病的发生。夏季低气压可能与缺血性卒中的可能性增加有关。这项研究的目的是研究气象条件对左心耳(LAA)血栓形成的潜在影响。(2)方法:共纳入131例患者,2009年2月至2019年2月通过3D经食管超声心动图(TEE)诊断为首例血栓。每月至少有10个血栓的频繁血栓诊断的月被归类为频繁月(F个月)。而每月诊断血栓少于10次的月份被标记为非频繁月份(N个月)。分析的重点是诊断前两周和四周的气象参数差异。(3)结果:春季和夏季主要观察到F个月(4月,May,六月,和七月),以及2月和11月。在F个月期间,更高的绝对温差,较低的相对湿度,较长的每日日照时间,在两周和四周而不是N个月内观察到更大的风速最大值。在两周的时间里,平均温度,等效温度,和最高温度也显著高于N个月。(4)结论:在绝对温差较大的时期,左心耳血栓较为普遍,相对湿度低,和长的每日日照时间。
    (1) Background: Meteorological factors seem to exert various effects on human health, influencing the occurrence of diseases such as thromboembolic events and strokes. Low atmospheric pressure in summer may be associated with an increased likelihood of ischemic stroke. The aim of this study was to investigate the potential impact of meteorological conditions on left atrial appendage (LAA) thrombus formation. (2) Methods: A total of 131 patients were included, diagnosed with a first instance of thrombus via 3D transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) between February 2009 and February 2019. Months with frequent thrombus diagnoses of at least 10 thrombi per month were categorized as frequent months (F-months), while months with fewer than 10 thrombus diagnoses per month were labelled as non-frequent months (N-months). The analysis focused on differences in meteorological parameters in two-week and four-week periods before the diagnosis. (3) Results: F-months were predominantly observed in spring and summer (April, May, June, and July), as well as in February and November. During F-months, a higher absolute temperature difference, lower relative humidity, longer daily sunshine duration, and greater wind speed maximum were observed in the two- and four-week periods rather than for N-months. In the two-week period, average temperatures, equivalent temperatures, and temperature maxima were also significantly higher during F-months than N-months. (4) Conclusion: Thrombi in the left atrial appendage are more prevalent during periods characterized by high absolute temperature differences, low relative humidity, and long daily sunshine duration.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    农业是非洲的主要经济部门之一,这主要取决于气候。然而,极端气候变化确实对农业生产产生负面影响。如果农民可以获得准确的天气预报,则可以减轻极端气候变化造成的损害。这可以使他们能够对他们的耕作方式进行必要的调整。为了改善极端气候变化下的天气预报,我们提出了一种基于具有自适应噪声的完全集成经验模式分解(CEEMDAN)的混合预测模型,局部均值分解(LMD),和人工神经网络(NN)。将短期和长期预测结果的性能指标与其他预测模型进行详细比较,可以发现三相混合CEEMDAN-LMD-NN模型在使用的评估指标方面是最优的。研究结果证明了三相混合CEEMDAN-LMD-NN预测模型在决策系统设计中的有效性,特别是对于大规模的商业农民,小农户,和农业指数保险业,需要在多步范围内生成可靠的预测。
    Agriculture is one of the major economic sectors in Africa, and it predominantly depends on the climate. However, extreme climate changes do have a negative impact on agricultural production. The damage resulting from extreme climate change can be mitigated if farmers have access to accurate weather forecasts, which can enable them to make the necessary adjustments to their farming practices. To improve weather prediction amidst extreme climate change, we propose a novel prediction model based on a hybrid of complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN), local mean decomposition (LMD), and artificial neural networks (NN). A detailed comparison of the performance metrics for the short- and long-term prediction results with other prediction models reveals that the three-phase hybrid CEEMDAN-LMD-NN model is optimal in terms of the evaluation metrics used. The study\'s findings demonstrate the efficiency of the three-phase hybrid CEEMDAN-LMD-NN prediction model in decision-system design, particularly for large-scale commercial farmers, small-holder farmers, and the agricultural index insurance industry that require reliable forecasts generated at multi-step horizons.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    最近争论的一个话题是假设,与语言发育障碍相关的缺陷,比如阅读障碍,可以用程序记忆的选择性弱点来解释。有(n=29;RD)和没有(n=29;TD)阅读障碍的成年人在即时和延迟反馈条件下完成了天气预报任务,依赖于纹状体(程序)和海马(声明性)回路,分别。我们通过反馈条件检查了逐个试验的准确性(即时与延迟)和组(RD与TD)。在即时反馈条件下,我们发现TD组的学习率高于RD组。在延迟反馈条件下,我们发现TD组很早就达到了很高的准确度,并在任务持续时间内优于RD组。在这两种条件下,TD组的反应时间也有所提高,而RD组的反应放慢了。一起来看,看来,尽管在有阅读障碍的成年人中,程序记忆确实受到了损害,在较小程度上,陈述性记忆也受到影响。这为PDH提供了部分支持,更广泛地说,阅读障碍与学习中的一般(非语言)困难有关。
    A topic of recent debate is the hypothesis that deficits associated with developmental disorders of language, such as reading disability, can be explained by a selective weakness in procedural memory. Adults with (n = 29; RD) and without (n = 29; TD) reading disability completed a weather prediction task under immediate and delayed feedback conditions, that rely on the striatal (procedural) and hippocampal (declarative) circuits, respectively. We examined trial-by-trial accuracy by feedback condition (immediate vs. delayed) and group (RD vs. TD). In the immediate feedback condition, we found the TD group to have a higher learning rate than the RD group. In the delayed feedback condition, we found the TD group reach a high level of accuracy early, and outperform the RD group for the duration of the task. The TD group also made gains in reaction time under both conditions, while the RD group slowed in their responses. Taken together, it appears that while procedural memory is indeed impaired in adults with reading disability, to a lesser extent, declarative memory is also affected. This lends partial support to the PDH, and more broadly to the position that reading disability is associated with general (non-linguistic) difficulties in learning.
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