weather

天气
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    据报道,突发性感觉神经性耳聋(SSNHL)与糖尿病密切相关,高血压,和高脂血症。虽然代谢综合征(MetS)是一种多因素疾病,包括糖尿病,高血压,血脂异常,肥胖,已知与SSNHL有关。众所周知,天气条件会影响SSNHL。这项研究旨在明确MetS之间的联系,或天气状况,以及SSNHL的严重程度和预后。127例SSNHL患者被分为MetS组和非MetS组,并对两组的人口统计学和临床特征进行了回顾性分析。MetS组中有52例(40.9%)患者,而非MetS组中有75例(59.1%)患者。眩晕的发生率,高血压,糖尿病,降低高密度脂蛋白胆固醇(HDL-C)水平,高甘油三酯(TG),体重指数(BMI)≥25(kg/m2)在MetS组明显高于非MetS组。眩晕,高血压,大都会队与听力损失的严重程度有关.MetS组的完全恢复率和部分恢复率明显低于非MetS组。根据多变量分析,MetS与SSNHL的预后较差显着相关;发作时高环境温度差异和高血压与不良预后相关。这些结果表明,SSNHL的严重程度和预后可能受到MetS的影响。发病时高环境温度差异和高血压是SSNHL预后不良的指标。
    It is reported that sudden sensorineural hearing loss (SSNHL) is closely related to diabetes, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia. While the metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a multifactorial disease that includes diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and obesity, which are known to be associated with SSNHL. Weather conditions have long been known to affect the SSNHL. This study aimed to make a clear connection between MetS, or weather conditions, and the severity and prognosis of SSNHL. 127 SSNHL patients have been divided into the MetS group and the non-MetS group, and the demographic and clinical characteristics of the 2 groups have been analyzed retrospectively. There were 52 (40.9%) patients in the MetS group, while there were 75 (59.1%) patients in the non-MetS group. The rate of vertigo, hypertension, diabetes, lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels, high triglyceride (TG), and body mass index (BMI) ≥25 (kg/m2 ) were significantly higher in the MetS group than those in non-MetS group. Vertigo, hypertension, and Mets were linked to the severity of hearing loss. The rate of complete recovery and partial recovery in the MetS group was clearly lower than that in non-MetS group. According to the multivariate analysis, MetS was significantly associated with a poorer prognosis of SSNHL; a high ambient temperature difference at onset and hypertension were correlated with a poor prognosis. These results demonstrate that the severity and prognosis of SSNHL can be influenced by the MetS. High ambient temperature differences at onset and hypertension were indicators of a poor prognosis for SSNHL.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    客观天气分类方法已被广泛应用于确定主要的臭氧有利天气模式(SWPs),然而,不同分类方法的一致性很少被检查。在这项研究中,我们应用了两种广泛使用的客观方法,自组织图(SOM)和K-均值聚类分析,在2015-2022年期间,在四个中国特大城市获得对臭氧有利的SWP。我们发现,这两种算法在识别四个中国特大城市的主要臭氧有利SWP方面基本一致。在对六个SWP进行分类的情况下,导出的环流场高度相似,两种方法之间的空间相关性为0.99,每个SWP的平均频率差异小于7%。广州的六个主要的臭氧有利SWP都具有异常高的辐射和温度的特征,较低的云层,相对湿度,和风速,与气候学相比,沉降更强烈。我们发现,在2015-2022年期间,臭氧有利的SWPs天数以3.2天/年的速度显着增加,比臭氧超标天数(3.0天/年)的增加更快。臭氧有利SWP的发生与臭氧超标天数之间的年际变化通常与0.6的时间相关系数一致。特别是,2022年臭氧有利的SWP显着增加,特别是通常发生在9月的副热带高压类型,与2022年9月广州持续的臭氧污染事件一致。因此,我们的研究结果表明,臭氧有利SWP的频率增加在2015-2022年广州市臭氧增加中发挥了重要作用。
    Objective weather classification methods have been extensively applied to identify dominant ozone-favorable synoptic weather patterns (SWPs), however, the consistency of different classification methods is rarely examined. In this study, we apply two widely-used objective methods, the self-organizing map (SOM) and K-means clustering analysis, to derive ozone-favorable SWPs at four Chinese megacities in 2015-2022. We find that the two algorithms are largely consistent in recognizing dominant ozone-favorable SWPs for four Chinese megacities. In the case of classifying six SWPs, the derived circulation fields are highly similar with a spatial correlation of 0.99 between the two methods, and the difference in the mean frequency of each SWP is less than 7%. The six dominant ozone-favorable SWPs in Guangzhou are all characterized by anomaly higher radiation and temperature, lower cloud cover, relative humidity, and wind speed, and stronger subsidence compared to climatology mean. We find that during 2015-2022, the occurrence of ozone-favorable SWPs days increases significantly at a rate of 3.2 day/year, faster than the increases in the ozone exceedance days (3.0 day/year). The interannual variability between the occurrence of ozone-favorable SWPs and ozone exceedance days are generally consistent with a temporal correlation coefficient of 0.6. In particular, the significant increase in ozone-favorable SWPs in 2022, especially the Subtropical High type which typically occurs in September, is consistent with a long-lasting ozone pollution episode in Guangzhou during September 2022. Our results thus reveal that enhanced frequency of ozone-favorable SWPs plays an important role in the observed 2015-2022 ozone increase in Guangzhou.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    尽管定期锻炼人群是衡量中国全民健身活动成功与否的关键指标,增加群众体育参与的有效政策方法仍不清楚。以前的研究表明,GDP,教育程度,体育资源,气象条件可能会影响定期锻炼的参与。因此,本研究首先分析了影响中国规律锻炼人群的宏观层面相关因素。
    我们利用普通最小二乘(OLS)回归和地理加权回归(GWR)来对关系进行理论化。分析包括来自中国大陆31个行政区的数据,在“十三五”期末报告。对数-对数模型使我们能够量化解释变量的边际效应(弹性)。
    OLS回归表明,地区GDP和受过大学教育的人口比例是重要的预测因素。在全局模型中,地区GDP和大学教育的边际效应分别为0.048和0.173。此外,GWR揭示了与经典胡线相对应的独特地理格局。
    虽然地区GDP在我们的模型中也是一个显著的相关性,弹性表明,大学教育对中国正常运动人群的影响是不对称的。因此,本文阐明了即将到来的“十五”计划的政策重点,强调扩大大学教育对增强群众体育参与的战略重要性。反过来,受过良好教育的民众可能会对公共卫生产生重大的二次影响,并有助于中国现代化道路的高质量发展。
    UNASSIGNED: Although the regular exercise population is a key metric for gaging the success of China\'s fitness-for-all activities, effective policy approaches to increase mass sports participation remain unclear. Previous research suggests that GDP, educational attainment, sports resources, and meteorological conditions could influence regular exercise participation. Therefore, this study first analyzed the macro-level correlates influencing China\'s regular exercise population.
    UNASSIGNED: We utilize ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and geographical weighted regression (GWR) to theorize the relationship. The analysis encompasses data from the 31 administrative regions of Mainland China, as reported at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan period. The log-log model enables us to quantify the marginal effect (elasticity) of the explanatory variables.
    UNASSIGNED: The OLS regression showed that regional GDP and the proportion of the population with a university education were significant predictors. In the global model, the marginal effects of regional GDP and university education were 0.048 and 0.173, respectively. Furthermore, the GWR revealed a distinct geographic pattern that corresponds to the classic Hu Line.
    UNASSIGNED: While regional GDP was also a significant correlate in our model, the elasticity demonstrates that university education had an asymmetric effect on China\'s regular exercise population. Therefore, this paper sheds light on a policy priority for the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the strategic importance of expanding university education to enhance mass sports participation. In turn, a better-educated populace may yield significant secondary effects on public health and contribute to the high-quality development of the Chinese path to modernization.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:尚未研究环境粗颗粒物(PM2.5-10)与耐多药结核病(MDR-TB)患者死亡率之间的关系。温度和湿度对这种关联的修改作用是完全未知的。
    目的:为了评估长期PM2.5-10暴露的影响,温度和湿度对MDR-TB患者死亡率的影响。
    方法:对3469例耐多药结核病患者的中国队列进行了从诊断到死亡的随访,后续损失,或研究结束,每位患者平均2567天。PM2.5-10浓度来自PM10和PM2.5之间的差异。Cox比例风险模型每3.74μg/m3(四分位距,IQR)在不同的长期和短期温度和湿度水平下,整个队列和个体暴露于PM2.5-10和全因死亡率,调整其他空气污染物和潜在的协变量。使用平滑样条对暴露-反应关系进行量化。
    结果:在长期和短期暴露于温度和湿度的情况下,观察到整个队列的死亡率与PM2.5-10暴露相关的危险比为1.733(95%CI,1.407,2.135)和1.427(1.114,1.827)。温度和湿度对性别的影响是不均匀的,年龄,治疗史,和周围的生活环境,通过绿色和夜间光照水平来衡量。非线性暴露反应曲线表明,从15μg/m3左右的低暴露浓度开始,PM2.5-10相关死亡的累积风险。
    结论:长期暴露于PM2.5-10会对耐多药结核病患者造成重大伤害,影响温度和湿度。立即监测PM2.5-10对于缓解耐多药结核病严重程度的进展至关重要。特别是由于共同暴露于空气污染和恶劣的天气条件。
    BACKGROUND: The association between ambient coarse particulate matter (PM2.5-10) and mortality in multi-drug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) patients has not yet been studied. The modifying effects of temperature and humidity on this association are completely unknown.
    OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effects of long-term PM2.5-10 exposures, and their modifications by temperature and humidity on mortality among MDR-TB patients.
    METHODS: A Chinese cohort of 3469 MDR-TB patients was followed up from diagnosis until death, loss to follow-up, or the study\'s end, averaging 2567 days per patient. PM2.5-10 concentrations were derived from the difference between PM10 and PM2.5. Cox proportional hazard models estimated hazard ratios (HRs) per 3.74 μg/m3 (interquartile range, IQR) exposure to PM2.5-10 and all-cause mortality for the full cohort and individuals at distinct long-term and short-term temperature and humidity levels, adjusting for other air pollutants and potential covariates. Exposure-response relationships were quantified using smoothed splines.
    RESULTS: Hazard ratios of 1.733 (95% CI, 1.407, 2.135) and 1.427 (1.114, 1.827) were observed for mortality in association with PM2.5-10 exposures for the full cohort under both long-term and short-term exposures to temperature and humidity. Modifying effects by temperature and humidity were heterogenous across sexes, age, treatment history, and surrounding environment measured by greenness and nighttime light levels. Nonlinear exposure-response curves suggestes a cumulative risk of PM2.5-10-related mortality starting from a low exposure concentration around 15 μg/m3.
    CONCLUSIONS: Long-term exposure to PM2.5-10 poses significant harm among MDR-TB patients, with effects modified by temperature and humidity. Immediate surveillance of PM2.5-10 is crucial to mitigate the progression of MDR-TB severity, particularly due to co-exposures to air pollution and adverse weather conditions.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    空气传播的病毒性新发传染病(EID)的爆发对全球公共卫生造成了越来越大的负担。特别是在气候变化加剧的背景下。然而,空气传播的病毒性EID爆发的感染源和驱动因素仍然未知。这里,我们的目标是基于单一健康视角探索疫情的驱动机制。从全球传染病和流行病学网络数据库和系统文献综述中收集了20种空气传播的病毒性EID的爆发信息。使用多变量扫描统计测试,在全球范围内确定了四个具有统计学意义和高风险的空中病毒EID爆发时空集群。有112起疫情,有明确的感染源,人畜共患溢出是最常见的来源(95.54%,107/112)。自1970年以来,大部分疫情发生在医疗机构(24.82%),其次是学校(17.93%)和动物相关环境(15.93%)。在地震次数之间发现了显着的关联,风暴,洪水持续时间,使用病例交叉研究设计和多变量条件逻辑回归分析和空气传播的病毒性EIDs爆发。这些发现暗示人畜共患溢出和极端天气事件正在推动空气传播病毒EID的全球爆发,并有针对性地采取防控措施,降低空气传播的病毒性EID负担。
    Outbreaks of airborne viral emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) cause an increasing burden on global public health, particularly with a backdrop of intensified climate change. However, infection sources and drivers for outbreaks of airborne viral EIDs remain unknown. Here, we aim to explore the driving mechanisms of outbreaks based on the one health perspective. Outbreak information for 20 types of airborne viral EIDs was collected from the Global Infectious Disease and Epidemiology Network database and a systematic literature review. Four statistically significant and high-risk spatiotemporal clusters for airborne viral EID outbreaks were identified globally using multivariate scan statistic tests. There were 112 outbreaks with clear infection sources, and zoonotic spillover was the most common source (95.54%, 107/112). Since 1970, the majority of outbreaks occurred in healthcare facilities (24.82%), followed by schools (17.93%) and animal-related settings (15.93%). Significant associations were detected between the number of earthquakes, storms, duration of floods, and airborne viral EIDs\' outbreaks using a case-crossover study design and multivariable conditional logistic regression. These findings implied that zoonotic spillover and extreme weather events are driving global outbreaks of airborne viral EIDs, and targeted prevention and control measures should be made to reduce the airborne viral EIDs burden.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    了解恶劣天气对生物表型特征的影响对于了解环境对表型进化的影响至关重要,并对预测物种如何应对当前的气候变化具有重要意义。对于许多鸟类来说,冬季恶劣的天气往往会对他们的生存产生强烈的选择性影响,只有具有某些表型的个体才能生存。然而,对表型的选择性影响是否随冬季天气条件而变化的研究很少。这里,我们探索了冬季天气对有和没有严重暴风雪的冬季黑喉山雀(Aegithalosconcinnus)形态特征的选择性影响。我们发现对于男性来说,他们账单的大小,头部和翅膀显著影响了它们越冬的生存,但影响因冬季条件而异。在相对温和的冬天,具有较小钞票深度的雄性,较小的钞票表面积,和更大的头部长度存活更好;然而,在严重暴风雪的冬天,发现了一个相反的模式。这种现象可能是由热量保持和觅食要求的选择压力驱动的,它们的相对重要性取决于冬季条件。此外,翅膀长度与男性生存呈正相关,在严寒的冬季,这种关系更强,这可能是由于较长的机翼\'更高的飞行效率在不利的天气。相比之下,我们发现女性的形态特征与存活之间没有相关性。这些结果表明,环境对鸟类表型具有性别特异性和条件依赖性的选择性作用,暗示不同选择压力和表型进化之间复杂的相互作用。
    Knowledge of the effect of harsh weather on the phenotypic traits of organisms is essential for understanding the environmental influence on phenotype evolution and holds implications for predicting how species respond to current climate change. For many birds, harsh weather in winter often imposes a strong selective effect on their survival, and only the individuals with certain phenotypes may survive. However, whether the selective effect on phenotype varies with winter weather conditions has been poorly investigated. Here, we explored the selective effect of winter weather on black-throated tit\'s (Aegithalos concinnus) morphological traits under winters with and without severe snowstorms. We found that for males, the sizes of their bills, heads and wings significantly affected their overwinter survival, but the effects varied with winter conditions. In relatively benign winters, males with smaller bill depths, smaller bill surface areas, and greater head lengths survived better; whereas, in winters with severe snowstorms, a reverse pattern was found. This phenomenon was likely driven by selection pressures from heat retention and foraging requirements, with their relative importance depending on winter conditions. Additionally, wing length was positively correlated with male survival and the relationship was stronger in harsher winters, which was probably due to longer wings\' higher flight efficiency in adverse weather. By contrast, we found no correlation between morphological traits and survival in females. These results suggest a sex-specific and condition-dependent selective effect of environment on bird phenotypes, implying complicated interactions between different selection pressures and phenotype evolution.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    城市化引起的空气动力学和热条件的变化会影响区域气象条件,影响空气质量。更新了中分辨率成像光谱仪(MODIS)的土地利用数据,并与天气研究与预报(WRF)模型中的城市冠层模型(UCM)相结合。这使得可以评估城市土地扩张对气象条件和臭氧(O3)浓度的影响。城市扩展增加了2m(T2)的温度和城市扩展区域降水的可能性,并增强了夜间地表城市热岛。随着扩张区域逐渐扩大,T2的增加变得更加明显。2016年、2018年和2020年6月的城市地表占比与2001年相比增加了0.69%,0.83%,和1.04%,分别,而城市地区的T2分别增加了0.12、0.19和0.20°C,分别。随着城市的扩张,城市O3浓度分别增加了1.12、1.37和0.76μg/m3(三年平均值),郊区,郊区农村地区,分别。耦合多层城市冠层模型(建筑效果参数化,BEP),或具有建筑能量模型的多层城市冠层模型,包括由于空调引起的人为热量(BEP+BEM,缩写为BEM模拟),城市扩张区域的O3浓度发生了显著变化,与单层城市冠层模型(UCM)的结果进行了比较。O3浓度在BEP模拟中下降最多(-0.77μg/m3),而O3浓度在BEM模拟中增加最多(+1.85μg/m3)。平均观测到的O3浓度为108.35μg/m3(三年平均值),模拟值为75.65~83.72μg/m3(R=0.69~0.77)。BEM和全局最优方案(GOS)模拟的验证结果相对较好,GOS模拟产生的结果比BEM略好。通过整合UCM的结果,可以改善城市群中O3的模拟。
    Changes in aerodynamic and thermal conditions caused by urbanization can impact regional meteorological conditions, subsequently affecting air quality. Updated Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land use data and coupled with the urban canopy models (UCMs) in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. This enabled the impact of urban land expansion on meteorological conditions and ozone (O3) concentrations to be evaluated. Urban expansion increased the temperature at 2 m (T2) and the probability of precipitation in urban expansion areas, and enhanced the surface urban heat island at night. As the expansion areas became progressively larger, the increase in T2 became more pronounced. The proportions of urban surfaces in June 2016, 2018, and 2020 compared to 2001 increased by 0.69%, 0.83%, and 1.04%, respectively, while T2 increased by 0.12, 0.19, and 0.20 °C in urban areas, respectively. With urban expansion, the O3 concentration increased by 1.12, 1.37, and 0.76 μg/m3 (three-year averages) in urban, suburban, and rural areas, respectively. After coupling a multi-layer urban canopy model (building effect parameterization, BEP), or a multi-layer urban canopy model with a building energy model including anthropogenic heat due to air conditioning (BEP + BEM, abbreviated as BEM simulation), the O3 concentration changed significantly in the urban expansion area, compared to the results of a single-layer urban canopy model (UCM). O3 concentrations decreased most in the BEP simulation (-0.77 μg/m3), while O3 concentrations increased most in the BEM simulation (+1.85 μg/m3). The average observed O3 concentration was 108.35 μg/m3 (three-year average), while the simulated value was 75.65-83.72 μg/m3 (R = 0.69-0.77). The validation results in the BEM and Global Optimal Scenario (GOS) simulations were relatively good, with the GOS simulation producing slightly better results than the BEM. The simulation of O3 in urban agglomerations could be improved by integrating the results of the UCMs.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    作为行为生态学的中心话题,动物空间使用涉及对社会和生态因素的动态响应。我们在尼林丁岛的六组中收集了22只恒河猴(Macacamulatta),中国,并在一年内收集了80,625小时修复。使用这个高分辨率位置数据集,我们在个体水平上量化了猕猴的空间使用,并在考虑各种环境和人类干扰因素的同时测试了生态约束模型。正如生态约束模型所预测的那样,较大群体中的猕猴具有较长的每日路径长度(DPLs)和较大的家庭范围。我们发现日平均气温和DPL之间呈倒U型关系,表明猕猴在温和的日子里走得更远,当温度过高或过低时,它们会降低DPL。人为食品补贴与DPLs呈正相关,而降雨的影响是负面的。当更多的花和更少的叶子可用时,猕猴减少了它们的DPL和核心区域,这表明猕猴改变了它们的空间使用模式,以适应食物资源的季节性差异。通过对居住在小岛上的大量个人应用GPS项圈,我们对野生恒河猴的群体内开发竞争获得了宝贵的见解。
    As a central topic in Behavioral Ecology, animal space use involves dynamic responses to social and ecological factors. We collared 22 rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta) from six groups on Neilingding Island, China, and collected 80,625 hourly fixes over a year. Using this high-resolution location data set, we quantified the macaques\' space use at the individual level and tested the ecological constraints model while considering various environmental and human interfering factors. As predicted by the ecological constraints model, macaques in larger groups had longer daily path lengths (DPLs) and larger home ranges. We found an inverted U-shape relationship between mean daily temperatures and DPLs, indicating that macaques traveled farther on mild temperature days, while they decreased DPLs when temperatures were too high or too low. Anthropogenic food subsidies were positively correlated to DPLs, while the effect of rainfall was negative. Macaques decreased their DPLs and core areas when more flowers and less leaves were available, suggesting that macaques shifted their space use patterns to adapt to the seasonal differences in food resources. By applying GPS collars on a large number of individuals living on a small island, we gained valuable insights into within-group exploitation competition in wild rhesus macaques.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:虽然许多调查研究了环境协变量与COVID-19发病率之间的关联,没有人检查过他们与超级传播的关系,一种描述极少数个体不成比例地感染大量人群的特征。
    方法:使用2020年2月16日至2021年4月30日在香港所有实验室确认的COVID-19病例的接触者追踪数据来形成感染簇,以估计随时间变化的分散参数(kt)。超扩散潜力的度量。使用具有身份链接函数的广义累加模型来检查负logkt(较大意味着较高的超扩散势)与环境协变量之间的关联,根据考虑社会距离措施影响的流动性指标进行调整。
    结果:在研究期间共报告了6,645个集群,涵盖11,717例病例。在中间温度对中之后,10百分位数(18.2°C)的环境温度较低与负对数kt估计值较低显著相关(调整后的预期变化:-0.239[95%CI:-0.431~-0.048]).虽然观察到相对湿度与负logkt之间呈U形关系,发现与实际蒸气压呈倒U形关系。较高的总降雨量与较低的负对数kt估计值显着相关。
    结论:这项研究表明气象因素与COVID-19的超扩散潜力之间存在联系。我们推测,寒冷的天气和雨天减少了个人的社交活动,最大限度地减少了与他人的互动以及在高风险设施或大型集群中传播疾病的风险,而极端的相对湿度可能有利于SARS-CoV-2病毒的稳定性和存活。
    BACKGROUND: While many investigations examined the association between environmental covariates and COVID-19 incidence, none have examined their relationship with superspreading, a characteristic describing very few individuals disproportionally infecting a large number of people.
    METHODS: Contact tracing data of all the laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases in Hong Kong from February 16, 2020 to April 30, 2021 were used to form the infection clusters for estimating the time-varying dispersion parameter (kt), a measure of superspreading potential. Generalized additive models with identity link function were used to examine the association between negative-log kt (larger means higher superspreading potential) and the environmental covariates, adjusted with mobility metrics that account for the effect of social distancing measures.
    RESULTS: A total of 6,645 clusters covering 11,717 cases were reported over the study period. After centering at the median temperature, a lower ambient temperature at 10th percentile (18.2 °C) was significantly associated with a lower estimate of negative-log kt (adjusted expected change: -0.239 [95 % CI: -0.431 to -0.048]). While a U-shaped relationship between relative humidity and negative-log kt was observed, an inverted U-shaped relationship with actual vapour pressure was found. A higher total rainfall was significantly associated with lower estimates of negative-log kt.
    CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated a link between meteorological factors and the superspreading potential of COVID-19. We speculated that cold weather and rainy days reduced the social activities of individuals minimizing the interaction with others and the risk of spreading the diseases in high-risk facilities or large clusters, while the extremities of relative humidity may favor the stability and survival of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:环境因素如空气污染和温度可引发急性心肌梗死(AMI)。然而,大规模天气模式(天气类型)与AMI入院之间的联系尚未得到广泛研究.这项研究旨在确定北京不同的天气空气类型,并探讨它们与AMI发生的关系。
    方法:我们分析了2013年至2019年北京的数据,包括2556天和149,632例AMI病例。利用主成分分析和层次聚类,根据天气和污染测量,对不同的天气类型进行了分类。为了评估每种类型对14天内AMI风险的影响,我们采用了分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM),参考是最低风险类型(类型2)。
    结果:确定了四种天气类型:具有温暖,潮湿天气;温度温暖的2型,低湿度,日照时间长;3型天气寒冷,空气污染严重;4型气温寒冷,干燥度,和高风速。4型在14天内表现出最大的累积相对风险(CRR)为1.241(95CI:1.150,1.339)。在不同的滞后时间观察到1、3和4型对AMI事件的显着影响:1型为4-12天,3型为1-6天,4型为1-11天。女性对1型和3型更敏感,而年龄小于65岁的个体对3型和4型的脆弱性增加。
    结论:在2013年至2019年北京确定的四种天气类型中,类型4(冷,干,并且有风)是AMI住院的最高风险。这种风险在男性和65岁以下人群中尤为明显。我们的发现共同强调了需要改进的方法来识别天气类型。此外,根据这些天气条件开发预警系统对于预防至关重要。
    BACKGROUND: Environmental factors like air pollution and temperature can trigger acute myocardial infarction (AMI). However, the link between large-scale weather patterns (synoptic types) and AMI admissions has not been extensively studied. This research aimed to identify the different synoptic air types in Beijing and investigate their association with AMI occurrences.
    METHODS: We analyzed data from Beijing between 2013 and 2019, encompassing 2556 days and 149,632 AMI cases. Using principal component analysis and hierarchical clustering, classification into distinct synoptic types was conducted based on weather and pollution measurements. To assess the impact of each type on AMI risk over 14 days, we employed a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM), with the reference being the lowest risk type (Type 2).
    RESULTS: Four synoptic types were identified: Type 1 with warm, humid weather; Type 2 with warm temperatures, low humidity, and long sunshine duration; Type 3 with cold weather and heavy air pollution; and Type 4 with cold temperatures, dryness, and high wind speed. Type 4 exhibited the greatest cumulative relative risk (CRR) of 1.241 (95%CI: 1.150, 1.339) over 14 days. Significant effects of Types 1, 3, and 4 on AMI events were observed at varying lags: 4-12 days for Type 1, 1-6 days for Type 3, and 1-11 days for Type 4. Females were more susceptible to Types 1 and 3, while individuals younger than 65 years old showed increased vulnerability to Types 3 and 4.
    CONCLUSIONS: Among the four synoptic types identified in Beijing from 2013 to 2019, Type 4 (cold, dry, and windy) presented the highest risk for AMI hospitalizations. This risk was particularly pronounced for males and people under 65. Our findings collectively highlight the need for improved methods to identify synoptic types. Additionally, developing a warning system based on these synoptic conditions could be crucial for prevention.
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