背景:结核病是仅次于COVID-19的第二大致命传染病,也是全球第13大死亡原因。在结核病高负担的30个国家中,中国在结核病病例估计数量中排名第三。中国是结核病战略计划资金短缺的75个国家中的前四名。为了降低成本,提高中国结核病治疗的效果,NHSA开发了一种创新的BP方法。本研究旨在模拟这种支付方式对不同利益相关者的影响,减轻结核病患者的经济负担,提高医疗服务质量,促进政策优化,并为医疗保健支付改革提供了一个模型,可以被世界各地的其他地区参考。
方法:我们开发了一个基于决策树分析的模拟模型,以预测支付方式对不同利益相关者的潜在财务影响的预期效果。我们的分析主要集中在比较试点地区接受Medicare的结核病患者BPs前后的医疗保健费用变化。用于分析的数据包括健康保险机构2019-2021年的结核病服务索赔记录,当地疾病控制中心的结核病患病率数据,和医疗保健设施的收入和支出数据来自统计年鉴。使用蒙特卡罗随机模拟模型来估计结果。
结果:采用创新的BP方法后,每年每个结核病患者,估计每年的总支出将从2,523.28美元减少到2,088.89美元,减少了434.39美元(17.22%)。结核病患者的自付支出预计将从$1,249.02减少到$1,034.00,减少了$215.02(17.22%)。医疗保健提供者的收入从2,523.28美元减少到2,308.26美元,但医疗保健提供者/机构的收入支出比率从-6.09%增加到9.50%。
结论:本研究强调了BPs改善医疗结果和控制结核病治疗相关费用的潜力。展示了其在加强医疗服务的协调性和可持续性方面的可行性和优势,从而为全球医疗支付改革提供有价值的见解。
BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis is the second most deadly infectious disease after COVID-19 and the 13th leading cause of death worldwide. Among the 30 countries with a high burden of TB,
China ranks third in the estimated number of TB cases.
China is in the top four of 75 countries with a deficit in funding for TB strategic plans. To reduce costs and improve the effectiveness of TB treatment in
China, the NHSA developed an innovative BP method. This study aimed to simulate the effects of this payment approach on different stakeholders, reduce the economic burden on TB patients, improve the quality of medical services, facilitate policy optimization, and offer a model for health care payment reforms that can be referenced by other regions throughout the world.
METHODS: We developed a simulation model based on a decision tree analysis to project the expected effects of the payment method on the potential financial impacts on different stakeholders. Our analysis mainly focused on comparing changes in health care costs before and after receiving BPs for TB patients with Medicare in the pilot areas. The data that were used for the analysis included the TB service claim records for 2019-2021 from the health insurance agency, TB prevalence data from the local Centre for Disease Control, and health care facilities\' revenue and expenditure data from the Statistic Yearbook. A Monte Carlo randomized simulation model was used to estimate the results.
RESULTS: After adopting the innovative BP method, for each TB patient per year, the total annual expenditure was estimated to decrease from $2,523.28 to $2,088.89, which is a reduction of $434.39 (17.22%). The TB patient out-of-pocket expenditure was expected to decrease from $1,249.02 to $1,034.00, which is a reduction of $215.02 (17.22%). The health care provider\'s revenue decreased from $2,523.28 to $2,308.26, but the health care provider/institution\'s revenue-expenditure ratio increased from -6.09% to 9.50%.
CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the potential of BPs to improve medical outcomes and control the costs associated with TB treatment. It demonstrates its feasibility and advantages in enhancing the coordination and sustainability of medical services, thus offering valuable insights for global health care payment reform.