Prospect Theory

前景理论
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    由于属性的信息非独立性,结合复杂多变的环境,风险分析面临很大困难。针对这个问题,本文提出了一种新的三向决策(3WD)方法,结合前景理论和非累加测度,以应对多源和不完整的风险信息系统。前景理论改进了原3WD模型的损失函数,非加性测度与概率测度的结合为理解决策的意义提供了新的视角,可以通过考虑专家知识和客观数据来衡量相对程度。阐述了该模型的理论基础和框架,并将该模型应用于涉及多个不完全风险信息源的实际在役航空装备结构风险评估问题。进行仿真分析时,验证了该方法的有效性。该方法还可以对设备结构中的关键风险因素进行评估和排序,为航空安全管理提供了可靠的决策依据。
    Due to the information non-independence of attributes, combined with a complex and changeable environment, the analysis of risks faces great difficulties. In view of this problem, this paper proposes a new three-way decision-making (3WD) method, combined with prospect theory and a non-additive measure, to cope with multi-source and incomplete risk information systems. Prospect theory improves the loss function of the original 3WD model, and the combination of non-additive measurement and probability measurement provides a new perspective to understand the meaning of decision-making, which could measure the relative degree by considering expert knowledge and objective data. The theoretical basis and framework of this model are illustrated, and this model is applied to a real in-service aviation equipment structures risk evaluation problem involving multiple incomplete risk information sources. When the simulation analysis is carried out, the results show that the availability of this method is verified. This method can also evaluate and rank key risk factors in equipment structures, which provides a reliable basis for decisions in aviation safety management.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    低碳建筑(LCB)在中国仍处于发展初期。相关政策的促进和实施尚未完全成熟。同时,它们作为公共产品的地位加剧了预期收益和潜在损失的不确定性和复杂性。很少有研究探讨感知参数对LCB利益相关者决策过程的影响。因此,结合前景理论,本文建立了一个由政府组成的三方博弈模型,开发者,和消费者探索他们在不同阶段的互动和影响。进一步利用现实生活场景来验证模型在预测各自偏好下的行为方面的有效性。结果表明,补贴和惩罚强度的增加反而降低了对LCB的热情。更具体地说,现有的补贴政策对消费者提供有限的激励。随着感知参数的增加,消费者和开发商对风险水平和潜在损失的敏感性存在差异。调查结果还强调了消费者在LCB市场的重要性。未来的政策应鼓励开发商和消费者共同推动LCB的实施。
    Low-carbon buildings (LCBs) are still in the early stages of development in China. The promotion and implementation of associated policies are not yet fully matured. Meanwhile, their status as public goods exacerbates the uncertainty and complexity regarding anticipated gains and potential losses. Few studies have explored the impact of perception parameters on the decision-making processes of LCBs\' stakeholders. Thus, combined with prospect theory, this paper establishes a tripartite game model composed of governments, developers, and consumers to explore their interactions and influences in different stages. Real-life scenarios are further utilized to validate the effectiveness of the model in predicting the behaviors under respective preferences. The results show that the increase in subsidy and penalty intensity instead diminishes the enthusiasm for LCBs. More specifically, the existing subsidy policies offer limited incentives to consumers. With the addition of the perception parameter, there exist differences in the sensitivity of consumers and developers towards risk levels and potential losses. The findings also highlight the importance of consumers in the LCBs market. Future policies should encourage developers and consumers to jointly promote the LCBs implementation.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在双重碳背景下,煤电企业要积极履行社会责任,尽快实现节能减排。考虑到外部环境的不确定性和关键利益相关者在履行企业社会责任过程中的潜在利益冲突,煤电企业并不总是积极履行社会责任。本文将前景理论和心理账户理论与演化博弈相结合,构建了一个涉及煤电企业的演化博弈模型,政府监管机构和公众对煤电企业社会责任行为进行研究。研究结果表明:(1)双碳背景下煤电企业的社会责任行为是典型的成本驱动行为,与效益相比,煤电企业对成本更为敏感。(2)政府监管机构制定监管政策很大程度上取决于煤电企业的决策惯性,而政府监管机构制定监管政策也会影响煤电企业的决策惯性。(3)公众的战略选择不完全取决于煤电企业和政府监管机构的战略选择,并且与参考点的设置更密切相关。(4)除现实因素外,决策者的主观因素也是影响煤电企业履行社会责任的重要因素。根据研究结果,本文从建立沟通机制,完善奖惩制度,加强风险管理。
    Under the dual-carbon background, coal power enterprises are required to actively fulfill their social responsibility in order to achieve energy saving and emission reduction as soon as possible. Considering the uncertainty of the external environment and the potential conflict of interest of the key stakeholders in the fulfillment of corporate social responsibility, coal power enterprises are not always positive in fulfilling their social responsibility. This paper combines prospect theory and mental account theory with evolutionary game to construct an evolutionary game model involving coal power enterprises, government regulators and the public to study the social responsibility behavior of coal power enterprises. The results of the study show that: (1) The social responsibility behavior of coal power enterprises under the dual-carbon background is a typical cost-driven behavior, and coal power enterprises are more sensitive to costs compared to benefits. (2) The formulation of regulatory policies by government regulators largely depends on the decision inertia of coal power enterprises, and the formulation of regulatory policies by government regulators will also affect the decision inertia of coal power enterprises. (3) The public\'s strategic choices do not entirely depend on the strategic choices of coal and power enterprises and government regulators, and are more closely related to the setting of the reference point. (4) In addition to the realistic factors, the subjective factors of decision makers are also important factors affecting the fulfillment of social responsibility of coal and power enterprises. Based on the results of the study, this paper proposes countermeasures to enhance the internal driving force of coal power enterprises to fulfill their social responsibility behaviors from the aspects of establishing a communication mechanism, improving the reward and punishment system, and strengthening risk management.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    通过绿色供应链促进可持续发展至关重要。政府补贴是激励企业积极参与这种环保做法的成功策略。本研究采用前景理论和进化博弈模型来分析向碳峰值和中性的过渡,同时促进高度可持续企业的扩张。通过探索企业和政府关于可持续性的决策过程,我们开发了一个基于进化博弈的决策模型来评估政府补贴对从事绿色供应链的企业的影响。通过MATLAB进行数值模拟,我们考察了影响绿色供应链企业与政府之间博弈系统演化的各种因素。此外,我们研究了政府激励如何影响绿色供应链企业的决策行为。我们的研究结果表明,政府罚款可以有效地鼓励采用绿色供应链。此外,适度的政府补贴激励企业选择可持续的供应链,对政府和企业都有利。然而,提供巨额政府补贴不仅不能鼓励采用绿色供应链,而且会给政府带来成本,而不会在业务方法上产生任何积极的变化。通过结合进化博弈论和前景理论,这项研究有助于了解政府支持的绿色供应链,提供针对企业所面临的现实条件量身定制的激励计划,同时展示实际应用价值。
    Fostering sustainable development through green supply chains is of paramount significance. Government subsidies emerge as a successful strategy for motivating businesses to actively participate in such eco-friendly practices. This study employs prospect theory and an evolutionary game model to analyze the transition toward carbon peaking and neutrality while promoting the expansion of highly sustainable businesses. By exploring the decision-making processes of businesses and governments regarding sustainability, we develop an evolutionary game-based decision model to assess the impact of government subsidies on businesses engaged in green supply chains. Through numerical simulation obtained via MATLAB, we examine various factors influencing the evolution of the game system between green supply chain businesses and the government. Additionally, we investigate how government incentives impact the decision-making behavior of green supply chain businesses. Our findings indicate that governmental fines can effectively encourage the adoption of green supply chains. Furthermore, moderate government subsidies incentivize enterprises to opt for sustainable supply chains, benefiting both the government and businesses. However, providing hefty government subsidies not only fails to encourage the adoption of green supply chains but also incurs costs for the government, without yielding any positive change in the businesses\' approach. By incorporating evolutionary game theory and prospect theory, this study contributes to the body of knowledge on government-supported green supply chains, offering incentive programs tailored to the real-world conditions faced by businesses while demonstrating practical application values.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    本研究调查了负责任的赌博活动中使用的口号的说服机制。我们分析美国官方海报上的口号,新加坡,澳门,专注于两个领域。首先,计划行为理论用于检查口号中表达的赌博意图,以揭示赌博在社会环境中的定位。第二,两个成帧设备-即,研究了概念隐喻和收益/损失的框架,以了解这些框架设备如何在相互交互的同时加强有说服力的信息。从我们的数据中出现了两种说服模式-一种鼓励“接地游戏”来享受,而其他人则因其潜在的“有害”后果而不鼓励赌博。我们主张对有助于说服性消息传递的整体有效性的理论构造采取格式塔观点。这些结构应该整合到一个分析框架中,特别注意概念隐喻的框架效应和损益框架,和它们的相互作用。
    This study investigates the persuasive mechanism of slogans employed in responsible gambling campaigns. We analyse slogans from official posters in the U.S., Singapore, and Macau, focusing on two domains. First, the Theory of Planned Behaviour is applied to examine the intention to gamble expressed in the slogans to reveal how gambling is positioned in social contexts. Second, two framing devices-i.e., conceptual metaphors and the frame of gains/losses-are examined to understand how these framing devices reinforce the persuasive message while interacting with each other. Two models of persuasion emerge from our data-one encouraged \'grounded games\' for enjoyment, while the other discouraged gambling due to its potentially \'harmful\' consequences. We advocate for a gestalt view on the theoretical constructs that contribute to the overall effectiveness of persuasive messaging. These constructs should be integrated into an analytical framework, with particular attention given to the framing effect of conceptual metaphors and the gain/loss frame, and their interplay.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    以往的研究主要集中在碳税政策下绿色建筑发展的博弈分析,而碳交易,作为促进低碳发展的重要手段之一,在促进绿色建筑市场的发展中很少提到。基于此,研究碳交易政策对绿色建筑市场发展的影响,本研究结合碳交易前景理论,构建了一个开发商-政府-消费者三方演化博弈模型。从整体角度研究碳交易机制下绿色建筑市场发展的影响原因。研究表明,碳交易政策的存在有助于绿色建筑市场的发展。在碳交易市场存在的情况下,政府的惩罚,补贴,碳价格的设定影响着绿色建筑市场的发展。此外,购买的碳排放百分比,潜在的好处,销售价格也或多或少地影响消费者购买绿色建筑的机会。本研究将前景理论引入开发商-政府-消费者三方演化博弈模型,丰富了各主体在绿色建筑市场中行为的研究视角。它为开发人员提供了理论支持,政府,和消费者合作,促进绿色建筑市场的协调和发展。对推动建筑业绿色高质量发展具有政策意义。
    Previous studies mainly focus on the game analysis of green building development under carbon tax policy, while carbon trading, as one of the important means to promote low-carbon development, is rarely mentioned in promoting the development of the green building market. Based on this, to study the impact of carbon trading policy on the development of the green building market, this study combines prospect theory for carbon trading to build a three-way evolutionary game model of developer-government-consumer. It studies the influencing causes of green building market development under the carbon trading mechanism from the whole perspective. The study shows the existence of a carbon trading policy helps the development of the green building market. In the presence of a carbon trading market, the government\'s punishment, subsidies, and the setting of carbon prices influence the development of the green building market. In addition, the percentage of carbon emissions bought, the potential benefits, and the selling price also affect the chance of consumers buying green buildings to a greater or lesser extent. This study introduces prospect theory into the developer-government-consumer three-way evolutionary game model, which enriches the research perspective of each subject\'s behavior in the green building market. It provides theoretical support for developers, governments, and consumers to collaborate to promote the coordination and development of the green building market. It has policy implications for promoting the green and high-quality development of the construction industry.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    都市农业为解决城市粮食需求问题提供了新的战略思路。本研究的主要目的是建立不同投资需求(城市农业1.0和2.0)下城市农业发展土地适宜性评价的空间模型,基于前景理论,利用GIS和TOPSIS分析技术。作为一个整体,我们制定了不同投资需求(城市农业1.0和2.0)下城市农业发展的土地适宜性评价体系。构建了包括生态环境在内的都市农业用地适宜性评价体系,社会需求和投资成本。都市农业1.0的土地适宜性分析结果表明,最合适的区域位于长乐。与都市农业1.0相比,最适合都市农业2.0的区域是鼓楼。值得注意的是,苍山在两个方案中都排名第二,可以作为平衡生态环境的潜在方案,社会需求和投资成本。为城市农业确定适当的土地适宜性优先事项将有助于未来的农业投资管理和土地利用规划。
    Urban agriculture provides a new strategic idea for solving the problem of urban food demand. The main objective of this study is to develop a spatial model for land suitability evaluation of urban agricultural development under different investment demands (urban agriculture 1.0 and 2.0), based on prospect theory and using GIS and TOPSIS analysis techniques. As a whole, we have developed a land suitability evaluation system for urban agricultural development under different investment needs (urban agriculture 1.0 and 2.0). We constructed a land suitability evaluation system for urban agriculture including ecological environment, social demand and investment cost. The results of the land suitability analysis for urban agriculture 1.0 show that the most suitable area is located in Changle. Compared with urban agriculture 1.0, the most suitable area for urban agriculture 2.0 is in Gulou. It is worth noting that Cangshan ranks second in both scenarios and can be used as a potential solution to balance the ecological environment, social demand and investment cost. Determining appropriate land suitability priorities for urban agriculture will facilitate future agricultural investment management and land use planning.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:加强疫苗在结束COVID-19危机中起着关键作用。然而,推广COVID-19加强疫苗接种往往会干扰个人的选择自由,并导致心理反应。
    目的:为了促进公众接受COVID-19加强剂量的意向,本研究旨在从心理电抗理论的角度探讨不同信息设计的有效性。
    方法:2022年1月在澳门进行了2×2×2阶乘实验(N=469)。进行了偏最小二乘结构方程建模和互补三路方差分析,以检查消息帧的影响(增益帧与丢失帧),自由恢复后记(现在vs.缺席),和其他参考线索(目前与缺席)减少心理电抗。
    结果:本研究通过检查心理电抗理论在COVID-19加强疫苗接种促进背景下的适用性,成功地扩大了心理电抗理论的范围。我们的发现表明,带有增益框架的促销信息在减少感知电抗方面往往是最有效的。然而,自由恢复后记,其他引用线索,发现混合信息设计在减轻电抗方面无效。此外,从信息框架到意图的直接影响的微不足道表明,信息设计本身不能影响人们的疫苗接种意图;相反,它必须依靠减少感知到的威胁,电抗,进一步提高疫苗接种意向。
    结论:我们的研究从心理电抗的角度提供了有价值的见解,识别可以在健康促销中有效的消息功能。此外,专门旨在减少对自由的威胁的信息设计可能会产生意想不到的说服力效果,目前在健康促进策略中被忽视的一个方面。
    The booster vaccine plays a key role in ending COVID-19 crisis. However, promoting COVID-19 booster vaccination often interferes with individuals\' freedom of choice and leads to psychological reactance.
    To promote the public\'s intention to receive COVID-19 booster dose, this study aimed to investigate the effectiveness of different message designs from psychological reactance theory\'s perspective.
    A 2 × 2 × 2 factorial experiment was conducted in Macao in January 2022 (N = 469). Partial least squares structural equation modeling and a complementary three-way ANOVA were performed to examine the effects of message frame (gain frame vs. loss frame), freedom restoration postscripts (present vs. absent), and other-referencing cues (present vs. absent) on reducing psychological reactance.
    The present study has successfully broadened the scope of the psychological reactance theory by examining its applicability to the context of COVID-19 booster vaccination promotion. Our findings indicate that the gain-framed promotion messages tend to be the most effective in reducing perceived reactance. However, freedom restoration postscripts, other-referencing cues, and mixed message design were found to be ineffective in alleviating reactance. Besides, the insignificance of direct effect from message frame to intention suggests that the message design itself cannot influence people\'s vaccination intentions; rather, it must rely on reducing perceived threat, reactance, and further improving vaccination intentions.
    Our study offered valuable insights from psychological reactance perspective, identifying message features that can be effective in health promotions. Furthermore, message design specifically aimed at reducing the threat to freedom may yield unexpected persuasive effects, an aspect currently overlooked in health promotion strategies.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在风险社会中,人类的生存和发展面临着复杂而严峻的公共危机事件的威胁。公众参与公共危机事件协同治理(CG)日益成为当前和未来应急管理体制改革的重要方向。以往对CG的研究主要集中在宏观层面,而忽略了对利益相关者行为策略演变的微观层面讨论。从新的价值感知角度来看,本研究构建了一个演化博弈模型来阐明多层次应急CG的演化机制。首先,基于前景理论和心理会计建立价值感知模型,对传统博弈矩阵进行优化。第二,对演化稳定性进行了分析,解决了系统演化规律。最后,以黑龙江省为例进行了数值模拟,中国食品和能源供应的主要地区。结果表明:(1)CG游戏系统具有复杂的演化路径;(2)游戏玩家的行为受到感知收入和感知成本的影响;(3)与参考值和收益账户的风险厌恶系数相比,(4)提高公众心理满意度和政府声誉的感知价值有助于CG的长期建设。总的来说,本研究旨在强调价值感知在促进CG有效实施中的潜在效用,并为中国和其他国家的CG发展提供新的见解。
    In a risk society, the survival and development of humans are facing threats of complex and severe public crisis events. Public participation in collaborative governance (CG) of public crisis events is increasingly recognized as an important direction for the reform of the current and future emergency management system. Previous studies of CG have mainly focused on the macro level and ignored to address micro-level discussions of the behavioral strategy evolution of stakeholders. From a fresh value perception perspective, this study constructs an evolutionary game model to clarify the evolution mechanism of multi-level emergency CG. First, the value perception model is built based on Prospect Theory and Mental Accounting to optimize the traditional game matrix. Second, the evolutionary stability is analyzed to solve the system evolution law. Finally, numerical simulation is conducted in the case of Heilongjiang province, a main region of food and energy supply in China. Results showed that (1) the CG game system has a complex evolutionary path; (2) the behavior of game players is affected by perceived incomes and perceived costs; (3) compared with the reference value and the risk aversion coefficient of income accounts, game players are more sensitive to that of cost accounts; (4) enhancing the perceived value of public psychological satisfaction and government reputation is helpful for the long-term construction of CG. Overall, this study aims to highlight the potential utility of value perception in promoting effective implementations of CG and to provide new insights for the development of CG in China and other countries.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    针对多指标对高速公路隧道结构安全性的影响以及人的有限理性在评估结果中的不精确性,提出了一种利用可能性和前景理论的高速公路隧道结构安全性评估方法。通过确定公路隧道结构的安全等级,构建安全等级的概率分布。然后使用专家的期望值得出每个监测指标的参考分布函数。基于可能性理论,得到指标监测结果的可能性分布,建立了监测指标与安全状态等级可能性分布函数的映射关系。最后,前景理论评价公路隧道结构的安全状况。将该方法应用于公路隧道的结构安全性评估,验证了其有效性和实用性,为公路隧道结构安全性评价提供了一种新方法。
    This study proposes an evaluation method for the structural safety of expressway tunnels utilizing possibility and prospect theories to address the influence of multiple indicators on the structural safety of expressway tunnels and the imprecision of human-bounded rationality in assessing results. It constructs the probability distribution of safety level by determining the safety level of the highway tunnel structure. The reference distribution function of each monitoring index is then derived using the expected value of experts. Based on the possibility theory, the possibility distribution of the monitoring results of indicators is obtained, and the mapping relationship between the monitoring indicators and the possibility distribution function of safety status grade is developed. Finally, the prospect theory evaluates the highway tunnel structure\'s safety status. This method is applied to assess the structural safety of a highway tunnel, which verifies its effectiveness and practicability, and provides a new method for evaluating the structural safety of a highway tunnel.
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