Prospect Theory

前景理论
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    经典的决策理论要求理性的代理人表现出描述不变性:选择哪种描述对判断无关紧要,preferences,或者给出描述的选择是共同延伸的。框架研究通过表明描述的选择对判断有系统的影响,充分证明了描述不变性的失败,preferences,和选择。具体来说,框架研究表明,对看似等同的选项的语言不同描述经常导致偏好逆转。我总结了在存在风险的情况下进行框架的研究。这包括使用的不同研究设计的表征,为这些设计报告的框架效果的大小和鲁棒性,并提出了解释框架效应的理论解释。对理论账户的优劣进行了评估,经验和理论。最后,我提供了框架研究的含义。我的中心观点是,框架效应的存在指向人类判断和选择背后的过程的适应性,而不是简单地显示人类的非理性。
    Classic decision theory requires that rational agents show description invariance: which description is chosen should not matter for judgments, preferences, or choices given the descriptions are co-extensive. Framing research has amply demonstrated a failure of description invariance by showing that the choice of the description has a systematic effect on judgments, preferences, and choices. Specifically, framing research has shown that linguistically different descriptions of seemingly equivalent options frequently lead to preference reversals. I summarize the research on framing in situations entailing risk. This includes the characterization of different research designs used, the size and robustness of the framing effects reported for those designs, and the theoretical accounts put forward to explain framing effects. The theoretical accounts are evaluated with respect to their merits, empirically and theoretically. I end by providing the implications of framing research. My central point is that the existence of framing effects points to the adaptiveness of the processes underlying human judgment and choice rather than simply showing human irrationality.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    前景理论(PT)是一种替代方案,风险决策现象的动态解释。这项研究概述了PT在卫生领域的历史,包括进步,局限性,和文献计量数据。在PRISMA2020声明进行系统评价之后,对WebofScience(WoS)心理学类别中包含的科学文献进行了系统和文献计量评价。共有37项研究(10项非经验性研究和27项经验性研究)被纳入样本。文献计量结果表明,关于生产的主题变异性和异质性,研究人员,和用于研究PT的方法。系统的结果突出了PT研究的三个主要领域:预防和筛查行为,促进健康的习惯,以及与COVID相关的决策。还描述了改变PT指定的通常模式的个人和上下文因素。最后,PT目前具有适合健康促进的跨学科特征,随着最近的研究扩大了它的适用性。
    Prospect Theory (PT) is an alternative, dynamic explanation of the phenomenon of risky decision making. This research presents an overview of PT\'s history in health fields, including advancements, limitations, and bibliometric data. A systematic and bibliometric review of the scientific literature included in the psychological categories of Web of Science (WoS) was performed following the PRISMA 2020 statement for systematic reviews. A total of 37 studies (10 non-empirical and 27 empirical) were included in the sample. Bibliometric results showed thematic variability and heterogeneity regarding the production, researchers, and methodologies that are used to study PT. The systematic results highlight three main fields of PT research: preventive and screening behaviors, promotion of healthy habits, and COVID-related decision making. Personal and contextual factors which alter the usual pattern specified by PT are also described. To conclude, PT currently has an interdisciplinary character suitable for health promotion, with recent studies broadening its applicability.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    传统上,对成瘾行为的研究一直是基于对其危险因素的研究,冲动是主要的危险因素。然而,本研究旨在从决策分析中探讨这一主题。根据前景理论,低水平的损失和风险厌恶会增加成瘾行为的可能性。对这些行为与前景理论之间的可能关系进行了系统回顾。为此,汇编了迄今为止研究成瘾行为人群(N=15)的损失和风险厌恶的著作。除了其他资格标准,选择过程只进行了包括前景理论或累积前景理论的研究,英语或西班牙语,自1979年。WOS,Scopus,Dialnet和PsycInfo是选择的信息源。为此,已遵循PRISMA准则。研究发现,成瘾性物质的使用者比非使用者表现出更少的损失厌恶。这些结果不能转移给病态赌徒。强调了这项工作对未来研究以及预防和干预计划实施的意义。结果显示了一种从新的角度解决成瘾的方法。
    Traditionally, research on addictive behaviors has been based on the study of their risk factors, with impulsivity being the main risk factor. However, this study aims to approach this topic from the analysis of decision making. According to the prospect theory, low levels of loss and risk aversion will increase the probability of showing addictive behaviors. A systematic review of the possible relationships between these behaviors and prospect theory was carried out. To this end, the works that have studied loss and risk aversion in populations with addictive behaviors to date (N = 15) were compiled. Apart from other eligibility criteria, the selection process was only performed with studies that included the prospect theory or cumulative prospect theory, in English or Spanish, since 1979. WoS, Scopus, Dialnet and PsycInfo were the information sources selected. For this purpose, PRISMA guidelines have been followed. It was found that users of addictive substances show less loss aversion than nonusers. These results cannot be transferred to pathological gamblers. The significance of this work for future research and the implementation of prevention and intervention programs is highlighted. The results show an approach to addictions from a novel perspective.
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