Prospect Theory

前景理论
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    前景理论经常解释鲍曼悖论(风险与收益之间的负相关)的实证结果。然而,这些研究的实证计量经济模型是错误的。本研究采用数据驱动的方法来改进计量经济学模型。基于改进的计量经济模型的实证结果也通过数据可视化得到了加强,以进行深入说明。为此,我们使用了2000年至2019年巴基斯坦证券交易所622家上市公司的数据。我们的结果与基于改进的计量经济模型的前景理论文献相矛盾。
    Prospect theory frequently explains the empirical results of Bowman\'s paradox (negative relationship between risk and return). However, the empirical econometric model of these researches is misspecified. This study used a data-driven approach to improve the econometric model. Empirical results based on the improved econometric model are also reinforced by data visualization to be illustrated in depth. For this purpose, we used the data of 622 listed firms on the Pakistan Stock Exchange from 2000 to 2019. Our results contradict the literature on prospect theory based on the improved econometric model.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    水是社会经济和环境系统的重要自然资源。在跨辖区流域,当没有全流域水污染管理计划时,利益相关者倾向于采用基于不完全信息的效用最大化行为。这种情况可能会导致搭便车问题。本文试图利用前景理论阐明河岸地区的战略行为,进化游戏,和系统动力学。解释了河岸地区战略行为的演变,模拟了不同因素对其战略选择的影响。结果表明,因素的预期价值和利益相关者对风险的态度是解决跨辖区河流水污染问题的关键。提高对水污染概率的主观判断,提高认识,加强“污染者付费”计划中的处罚,放弃分段流域管理,建立全流域的水管理系统对于维护任何跨辖区流域的生态完整性和加快其河岸地区的可持续发展至关重要。
    Water is a critical natural resource for socio-economic and environmental systems. In transjurisdictional river basins, when basin-wide water pollution management scheme is absent, stakeholders tend to adopt utility-maximizing behavior based on incomplete information. Such a scenario could lead to a free-riding problem. This paper attempts to elucidate the strategic behavior of riparian regions using prospect theory, evolutionary game, and system dynamics. The evolution of riparian regions\' strategic behaviors is explained, and the impacts of different factors on their strategic selections are simulated. The results showed that the prospective value of factors and stakeholders\' attitude to risk are a key for resolving transjurisdictional river water pollution problems. Improving the subjective judgment of the probability of water pollution, raising awareness, strengthening the penalties in \"polluter pays\" schemes, abandoning segmented river basin management, and building a basin-wide water management system are vital for maintaining the ecological integrity of any transjurisdictional river basin and accelerate the sustainable development of its riparian regions.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    本文探讨了行为和运输规划文献中的关键假设,当人们更频繁地使用交通系统时,他们在决策中对公交地图的依赖程度降低,对公交地图的敏感性降低。因此,根据这个假设,与首次或新乘客相比,地图更改对频繁乘客的旅行决定的影响要小得多。这一假设——尽管从未经过经验验证——一直是公交地图成为改变乘客行为的规划工具的主要障碍。本文以华盛顿特区地铁地图为例,通过在七个地铁地图设计上的30个起点-目的地(O-D)对之间进行路线选择实验,研究了这一假设。该实验针对两种类型的乘客:经常乘坐地铁的乘客在DC地铁站的免费日报上刊登广告,和华盛顿都市区的普通居民通过亚马逊机械土耳其人,在线众包平台。共有255和371名参与者在各自的实验中进行了2024和2960条路线选择。结果表明,与不太可能熟悉地铁地图的普通居民相比,经常乘客实际上对地图设计的细微变化更敏感,因此不受替代设计中呈现的地图变化的影响。这项工作反驳了上述假设,并进一步验证了地铁地图作为运输系统中有效的规划工具。
    This paper addresses the key assumption in behavioral and transportation planning literature that, when people use a transit system more frequently, they become less dependent on and less sensitive to transit maps in their decision-making. Therefore, according to this assumption, map changes are much less impactful to travel decisions of frequent riders than to that of first-time or new passengers. This assumption-though never empirically validated-has been the major hurdle for transit maps to becoming a planning tool to change passengers\' behavior. This paper examines this assumption using the Washington DC metro map as a case study by conducting a route choice experiment between 30 Origin-Destination (O-D) pairs on seven metro map designs. The experiment targets two types of passengers: frequent metro riders through advertisements on a free daily newspaper available at DC metro stations, and general residents in the Washington metropolitan area through Amazon Mechanical Turk, an online crowdsourcing platform. A total of 255 and 371 participants made 2024 and 2960 route choices in the respective experiments. The results show that frequent passengers are in fact more sensitive to subtle changes in map design than general residents who are less likely to be familiar with the metro map and therefore unaffected by map changes presented in the alternative designs. The work disproves the aforementioned assumption and further validates metro maps as an effective planning tool in transit systems.
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