Respiratory diseases

呼吸系统疾病
  • 文章类型: Case Reports
    大多数现有研究仅调查了建筑环境对呼吸系统疾病的直接影响。然而,越来越多的证据表明,城市的建筑环境通过影响空气污染对公众健康有间接影响。探索"城市建成环境-空气污染-呼吸系统疾病"的级联机制,对于营造健康的呼吸环境具有重要意义,这就是本研究的目的。
    本研究收集了2015-2017年武汉市同济医院呼吸系统疾病患者的临床资料。此外,每日空气污染水平(二氧化硫(SO2),二氧化氮(NO2),颗粒物(PM2.5,PM10),和臭氧(O3),气象数据(平均温度和相对湿度),收集了城市建筑环境的数据。我们使用Spearman相关性来研究空气污染与气象变量之间的关系;使用分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM)来研究呼吸系统疾病之间的短期关系。空气污染物,和气象因素;使用多尺度地理加权回归模型(MGWR)研究了建筑环境中空间异质性对空气污染的影响。
    在研究期间,呼吸系统疾病的平均水平(平均年龄54岁)为每天15.97人,其中男性(平均年龄57岁)为9.519,女性(平均年龄48岁)为6.451;PM10,PM2.5,NO2,SO2和O3的24小时平均水平分别为78.056μg/m3,71.962μg/m3,54.468μg/m3,12.898μg/m3和46.904μg/m3;在PM10和SO2之间的相关性最高(r=0.762,p=0.01其次是NO2和PM2.5(r=0.73,p<0.01),PM10和PM2.5(r=0.704,p<0.01)。我们观察到NO2对呼吸系统疾病的显著滞后效应,对于滞后0天和滞后1天,NO2浓度增加10μg/m3相当于呼吸系统疾病增加1.009%(95%CI:1.001,1.017%)和1.005%(95%CI:1.001,1.011%)。NO2的空间分布受高密度城市发展(人口密度,建筑密度,购物服务设施数量,建设用地,这四个因素的带宽为43),而绿地和公园可以有效减少空气污染(R2=0.649)。
    以前的研究集中在空气污染对呼吸系统疾病的影响以及建筑环境对空气污染的影响,本研究将这三个方面结合起来,探讨它们之间的关系。此外,对“建筑环境-空气污染-呼吸系统疾病”级联机制的理论进行了实际研究,并分解为具体的实验步骤,这在以前的研究中没有发现。此外,我们观察到NO2对呼吸系统疾病的滞后效应和NO2分布中建筑环境的空间异质性。
    Most existing studies have only investigated the direct effects of the built environment on respiratory diseases. However, there is mounting evidence that the built environment of cities has an indirect influence on public health via influencing air pollution. Exploring the \"urban built environment-air pollution-respiratory diseases\" cascade mechanism is important for creating a healthy respiratory environment, which is the aim of this study.
    The study gathered clinical data from 2015 to 2017 on patients with respiratory diseases from Tongji Hospital in Wuhan. Additionally, daily air pollution levels (sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), particulate matter (PM2.5, PM10), and ozone (O3)), meteorological data (average temperature and relative humidity), and data on urban built environment were gathered. We used Spearman correlation to investigate the connection between air pollution and meteorological variables; distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to investigate the short-term relationships between respiratory diseases, air pollutants, and meteorological factors; the impacts of spatial heterogeneity in the built environment on air pollution were examined using the multiscale geographically weighted regression model (MGWR).
    During the study period, the mean level of respiratory diseases (average age 54) was 15.97 persons per day, of which 9.519 for males (average age 57) and 6.451 for females (average age 48); the 24 h mean levels of PM10, PM2.5, NO2, SO2 and O3 were 78.056 μg/m3, 71.962 μg/m3, 54.468 μg/m3, 12.898 μg/m3, and 46.904 μg/m3, respectively; highest association was investigated between PM10 and SO2 (r = 0.762, p < 0.01), followed by NO2 and PM2.5 (r = 0.73, p < 0.01), and PM10 and PM2.5 (r = 0.704, p < 0.01). We observed a significant lag effect of NO2 on respiratory diseases, for lag 0 day and lag 1 day, a 10 μg/m3 increase in NO2 concentration corresponded to 1.009% (95% CI: 1.001, 1.017%) and 1.005% (95% CI: 1.001, 1.011%) increase of respiratory diseases. The spatial distribution of NO2 was significantly influenced by high-density urban development (population density, building density, number of shopping service facilities, and construction land, the bandwidth of these four factors are 43), while green space and parks can effectively reduce air pollution (R2 = 0.649).
    Previous studies have focused on the effects of air pollution on respiratory diseases and the effects of built environment on air pollution, while this study combines these three aspects and explores the relationship between them. Furthermore, the theory of the \"built environment-air pollution-respiratory diseases\" cascading mechanism is practically investigated and broken down into specific experimental steps, which has not been found in previous studies. Additionally, we observed a lag effect of NO2 on respiratory diseases and spatial heterogeneity of built environment in the distribution of NO2.
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  • 文章类型: Multicenter Study
    早期生活条件与肺功能以及呼吸道和非呼吸道疾病的发展有关。与出生体重(BW)的关系,然而,是矛盾的。我们检查了GEIRD(呼吸系统疾病中的基因-环境相互作用)项目中自我报告的BW与肺功能以及呼吸系统和非呼吸系统疾病发展的关联。意大利多中心,涉及COPD病例的多病例对照研究,哮喘,过敏性鼻炎和对照。以病例/对照状态为反应变量进行多项logistic回归;以体重为主要决定因素;并调整性别,年龄和吸烟状况。在报告BW的2287名参与者中,6.4%(n=147)的BW较低(<2500g),女性的这一比例高于男性(7.8%vs.5.1%;p=0.006)。低体重的男性和女性均短于正常体重的男性和女性(平均值±SD:160.2±5.5vs.女性162.6±6.5厘米,p=0.009;172.4±6.1vs.男性174.8±7.2厘米,p<0.001)。尽管低体重个体的FEV1和FVC降低,这与性别和身高有关。在多变量分析中,BW与成年期呼吸系统疾病无关。然而,低体重者在两岁前自我报告肺部疾病住院的风险较高(10.3%vs.4.1%;p<0.001),五岁前严重呼吸道感染(16.9%vs.8.8%;p=0.001)和成年期高血压(29.9%vs.23.7%;p=0.001);然而,他们的心律失常风险较低(2.7%vs.5.8%;p=0.027)。
    Early life conditions are associated with lung function and the development of respiratory and non-respiratory illnesses. The relationship with birthweight (BW), however, is conflicting. We examined associations of self-reported BW with lung function and the development of respiratory and also non-respiratory diseases within the GEIRD (Gene-Environment Interaction in Respiratory Diseases) project, an Italian multi-centre, multi-case control study involving cases of COPD, asthma, allergic rhinitis and controls. Multinomial logistic regression was performed with case/control status as response variable; BW as main determinant; and adjusting for sex, age and smoking status. Of the 2287 participants reporting BW, 6.4% (n = 147) had low BW (<2500 g), and this proportion was greater in women than men (7.8% vs. 5.1%; p = 0.006). Both men and women with low BW were shorter than those with normal BW (mean ± SD: 160.2 ± 5.5 vs. 162.6 ± 6.5 cm in women, p = 0.009; 172.4 ± 6.1 vs. 174.8 ± 7.2 cm in men, p < 0.001). Although FEV1 and FVC were reduced in individuals with low BW, this was explained by associations with sex and height. In multivariable analysis, BW was not associated with respiratory diseases in adulthood. However, those with low BW had a higher risk of self-reported hospitalisation for lung disease before the age of two (10.3% vs. 4.1%; p < 0.001), severe respiratory infection before the age of five (16.9% vs. 8.8%; p = 0.001) and hypertension in adulthood (29.9% vs. 23.7%; p = 0.001); however, they had a lower risk of arrhythmia (2.7% vs. 5.8%; p = 0.027).
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:清肺排毒汤(QFPDD)已在中国广泛用于治疗冠状病毒病2019(COVID-19)。然而,关于COVID-19患者和其他呼吸系统疾病的治疗效果的研究尚未得到很好的证明。我们的研究旨在确定QFPDD联合常规治疗对COVID-19患者和其他呼吸系统疾病的治疗效果。方法:这项回顾性研究招募了2020年1月21日至3月18日在5个省的7家医院接受QFPDD治疗至少2个疗程(6天)的COVID-19患者。人口统计,流行病学,临床,实验室,计算机断层扫描特征,治疗,收集和分析结果数据。比较QFPDD治疗前后临床症状的改善情况。结果:本研究纳入了8例COVID-19患者。其中,6人为男性(75.0%)。患者的中位年龄为66(60-82)岁。4例患者分为轻度和中度病例(50.0%);有2例严重病例(25.0%)和重症病例(25.0%)。最常见的症状是咳嗽(7[87.5%]),其次是发烧(6[75.0%]),疲劳(4[50.0%]),哮喘(4[50.0%]),和厌食症(3[37.5%])。异常发现包括中性粒细胞减少(3[37.5%]),淋巴细胞(2[25.0%]),碱性磷酸酶(3[37.5%]),乳酸脱氢酶(4[50.0%]),红细胞沉降率(2[25.0%]),入院时C反应蛋白(5[83.3%])。经过一个疗程(3天)的QFPDD,鼻塞和喉咙痛完全消失,和发烧(5[83.3%]),疲劳(2[50.0%]),咳嗽(2[28.6%])得到改善。经过两个课程(6天),所有患者的发烧完全消失了,其他症状有改善的趋势.在非重症患者中,87.5%的基线症状完全消失。在重症患者中,61.1%的基线症状在患者给予QFPDD两个疗程后完全消失。在异常指标中,55.6%恢复到正常水平。完全发热恢复的中位持续时间为1.0天。病毒脱落和住院的中位持续时间为10.5天和21.5天,分别。没有一个病人恶化和死亡,住院期间未发生与QFPDD相关的严重不良事件.结论:QFPDD联合常规治疗可改善COVID-19合并其他呼吸系统疾病患者的临床症状,未观察到与QFPDD相关的严重不良反应。更大的样本研究证实了我们未来的发现。
    Background: Qingfei Paidu decoction (QFPDD) has been widely used in treating coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China. However, studies on the treatment effect of COVID-19 patients and other respiratory diseases have not been well demonstrated. Our study aims to determine the treatment effect of QFPDD in combination with conventional treatment on COVID-19 patients and other respiratory diseases. Methods: This retrospective study recruited COVID-19 patients who were treated with QFPDD for at least two courses (6 days) from seven hospitals in five provinces from January 21 to March 18 2020. Demographic, epidemiological, clinical, laboratory, computed tomography characteristics, treatment, and outcome data were collected and analyzed. The improvements in clinical symptoms before and after QFPDD treatment were compared. Results: Eight COVID-19 patients were included in this study. Of them, six were males (75.0%). The median age of the patients was 66 (60-82) years. Four patients were classified as mild and moderate cases (50.0%); there were two severe cases (25.0%) and critical cases (25.0%). The most common symptom was cough (7 [87.5%]), followed by fever (6 [75.0%]), fatigue (4 [50.0%]), asthma (4 [50.0%]), and anorexia (3 [37.5%]). Abnormal findings included decrease in neutrophils (3 [37.5%]), lymphocytes (2 [25.0%]), alkaline phosphatase (3 [37.5%]), lactic dehydrogenase (4 [50.0%]), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (2 [25.0%]), and C-reactive protein (5 [83.3%]) at admission. After one course (3 days) of QFPDD, nasal obstruction and sore throat completely disappeared, and fever (5 [83.3%]), fatigue (2 [50.0%]), and cough (2 [28.6%]) were improved. After two courses (6 days), the fever disappeared completely in all patients, and the other symptoms showed a tendency to improve. In non-severe patients, 87.5% baseline symptoms completely disappeared. In severe patients, 61.1% of the baseline symptoms completely disappeared after patients were administered QFPDD for two courses. Of the abnormal indicators, 55.6% returned to normal levels. The median duration to complete fever recovery was 1.0 day. The median durations of viral shedding and hospitalization were 10.5 and 21.5 days, respectively. None of the patients worsened and died, and no serious adverse events occurred related to QFPDD during hospitalization. Conclusion: QFPDD combined with conventional treatment improved clinical symptoms in COVID-19 patients with other respiratory diseases, and no serious adverse reactions associated with QFPDD were observed. Larger sample studies confirm our findings in the future.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    环境污染引起的气候变化是人类当前面临的众多环境健康危害中最重要的一个。特别是,极端温度是呼吸道和循环系统疾病死亡的重要危险因素。本研究旨在探索中国西部欠发达城市极端温度事件的气象健康效应,并找出脆弱个体。
    我们收集了绵阳市2013-2019年的气象数据和呼吸循环系统疾病死亡数据。将非线性分布滞后模型和广义加性模型相结合,研究了日平均温度(DAT)对不同性别呼吸循环系统疾病死亡率的影响。年龄。
    DAT与呼吸和循环系统疾病死亡率之间的暴露-反应曲线呈现“V”型非线性特征。在极低温度下,呼吸系统疾病死亡的30天累积相对风险(CRR30)为4.48(2.98,6.73),高于循环系统疾病死亡的2.77(1.96,3.92)。而在极高温度下没有明显差异。低温对所有年龄和性别的人的呼吸系统的健康影响是持久的,而高温是急性和短期的。年龄<65岁的人的循环系统更容易受到寒冷温度的急性影响,而女性和年龄≥65岁的人的效果延迟。
    低温和高温都会增加呼吸道和循环系统疾病的死亡风险。寒冷的影响似乎比热量持续的时间更长。
    Climate change caused by environmental pollution is the most important one of many environmental health hazards currently faced by human beings. In particular, the extreme temperature is an important risk factor for death from respiratory and circulatory diseases. This study aims to explore the meteorological-health effect and find out the vulnerable individuals of extreme temperature events in a less developed city in western China.
    We collected the meteorological data and data of death caused by respiratory and circulatory diseases in Mianyang City from 2013 to 2019. The nonlinear distributed lag model and the generalized additive models were combined to study the influence of daily average temperature (DAT) on mortality from respiratory and circulatory diseases in different genders, ages.
    The exposure-response curves between DAT and mortality from respiratory and circulatory diseases presented a nonlinear characteristic of the \"V\" type. Cumulative Relative Risk of 30 days (CRR30) of deaths from respiratory diseases with 4.48 (2.98, 6.73) was higher than that from circulatory diseases with 2.77 (1.96, 3.92) at extremely low temperature, while there was no obvious difference at extremely high temperature. The health effects of low temperatures on the respiratory system of people of all ages and genders were persistent, while that of high temperatures were acute and short-term. The circulatory systems of people aged < 65 years were more susceptible to acute effects of cold temperatures, while the effects were delayed in females and people aged ≥65 years.
    Both low and high temperatures increased the risk of mortality from respiratory and circulatory diseases. Cold effects seemed to last longer than heat did.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    空气污染是全世界的主要公共卫生问题。虽然在这个领域已经有了一些研究,他们中的大多数都专注于颗粒物,只覆盖了几个主要城市。这项研究旨在评估包头市暴露于气态空气污染物与呼吸道疾病门诊就诊之间的潜在关联。中国。获得2015年至2020年呼吸系统疾病的每日门诊量以及空气污染物和气象参数的每日平均值。使用时间分层的案例交叉设计和有限的三次样条进行分析。在不同的医院部门和地区进行了分层分析。观察到空气污染物的浓度与呼吸系统疾病的门诊就诊之间存在显着关联。与NO2和SO2浓度每10μg/m3增加以及CO浓度每10mg/m3增加相关的呼吸系统疾病门诊量的比值比为1.033(95%CI:1.018至1.049),0.965(95%CI:0.954至0.976),和1.038(95%CI:1.006至1.071),分别。短期接触NO2、SO2和CO与呼吸系统疾病的门诊就诊呈正相关,对儿童有更强的影响。O3与呼吸系统疾病之间的关系在不同浓度下有所不同。
    Air pollution is a major public health problem throughout the world. Although there have been several studies in this field, most of them have focused on particulate matter and only covered a few key cities. This study aimed to assess a potential association between exposure to gaseous air pollutants and outpatient visits for respiratory diseases in Baotou, China. Daily outpatient visits for respiratory diseases and daily averages of air pollutants and meteorological parameters from 2015 to 2020 were obtained. Time-stratified case-crossover design and restricted cubic splines were used to perform the analyses. Stratified analyses were performed in different hospital departments and districts. Significant association between the concentrations of air pollutants and outpatient visits for respiratory diseases was observed. The odds ratios of outpatient visits for respiratory diseases associated with per 10 μg/m3 increases in concentrations of NO2 and SO2, and per 10 mg/m3 increases in concentrations of CO were 1.033 (95% CI: 1.018 to 1.049), 0.965 (95% CI: 0.954 to 0.976), and 1.038 (95% CI: 1.006 to 1.071), respectively. Short-term exposure to NO2, SO2, and CO was positively associated with outpatient visits for respiratory diseases, with stronger effects among children. The relationship between O3 and respiratory diseases varied at different concentrations.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    加里宁格勒地区以其特殊的气候而闻名,这会对身体的适应性潜力产生负面影响。这表现为呼吸系统疾病和皮肤状况的发病率增加。为了防止高发病率,大学一年级学生的饮食中包括一种植物蛋白产品。这项研究旨在评估这种食物干预措施在预防加里宁格勒学生最常见疾病方面的有效性。两组大学生参加了食品试验。在对照组中,分解代谢过程普遍存在于营养代谢。不适应表现在蛋白质的代谢中,维生素,矿物,造血和体液免疫。炎症表现为α1-和α2-球蛋白,微弱的免疫反应,IgM和IgG。观察到血清的高氧化应激和低抗氧化能力。基于植物的蛋白质产品(FP)有助于保持睾丸激素水平并防止分解代谢反应的增加。此外,它对红细胞造血都有积极作用(红细胞平均体积的增加较小,血红蛋白的平均浓度和含量相同,增加的相对红细胞分布宽度(RDW)和白细胞造血(对免疫系统的有益作用:淋巴细胞,中性粒细胞的相对含量,单核细胞,嗜碱性粒细胞和嗜酸性粒细胞)。β-和γ-球蛋白证明了体液免疫的刺激,积极的免疫反应,IgM和IgG的水平,抗氧化保护,过氧化物的减少和血清抗氧化活性的增加。34周的观察显示,呼吸系统疾病的发病率降低了1.7倍,皮肤和皮下组织疾病的发病率降低了5.7倍。急性呼吸道感染减少1.8倍。治疗组无社区获得性肺炎病例,对照组为55.1‰。6~19周,治疗组呼吸系统疾病发生率比对照组低3.3~10.6倍。研究结果证明了功能性食品在学生社会适应和适应过程中的预防作用。
    The Kaliningrad region is known for its specific climate, which can negatively affect the adaptive potential of the body. This manifests in an increased incidence of respiratory diseases and skin conditions. To prevent high morbidity, a plant protein product was included in the diet of first-year university students. This study aimed to assess the effectiveness of this food intervention in preventing the most common diseases among Kaliningrad students. Two groups of university students took part in the food trial. In the control group, catabolic processes prevailed in nutrient metabolism. Disadaptation manifested itself in the metabolism of proteins, vitamins, minerals, hematopoiesis and humoral immunity. Inflammation was indicated by α1- and α2-globulins, a weak immune response, and IgM and IgG. High oxidative stress and low antioxidative ability of blood serum were observed. The plant-based protein product (FP) helped preserve testosterone level and prevent an increase in catabolic reactions. Moreover, it had a positive effect on both red blood cell hematopoiesis (a smaller increase in the average volume of erythrocytes, the same average concentration and content of hemoglobin, an increased relative red cell distribution width (RDW) and white blood cell hematopoiesis (a beneficial effect for the immune system: lymphocytes, the relative content of neutrophils, monocytes, basophils and eosinophils). The stimulation of humoral immunity was evidenced by beta- and gamma-globulins, an active immune response, the level of IgM and IgG, antioxidant protection, reduction of peroxides and an increase in antioxidant activity of blood serum. The 34-week observation showed a 1.7-fold decrease in the incidence of respiratory illnesses and a 5.7-fold decrease in skin and subcutaneous tissue diseases. Acute respiratory infections were reduced 1.8-fold. There were no cases of community-acquired pneumonia in the treatment group, compared with 55.1‰ in the control group. The incidence of respiratory diseases was 3.3-10.6 times lower in the treatment group than in the control group in weeks 6-19. The findings testify to the prophylactic effect of functional food during social adaptation and acclimatization of students.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    COVID-19大流行,以及病毒性疾病在全球范围内的普遍增加,导致研究人员将植物界视为抗病毒化合物的潜在来源。自古以来,草药已广泛应用于不同传统系统中各种传染病的治疗和预防。这篇综述的目的是强调植物化合物作为抗病毒感染的有效和可靠的药物的潜在抗病毒活性。尤其是冠状病毒组的病毒。讨论了植物粗提物和植物衍生的生物活性化合物显示的各种抗病毒机制。对复杂植物提取物和分离的植物衍生化合物的作用机制的理解将有助于为对抗这种危及生命的疾病铺平道路。Further,分子对接研究,提取化合物的计算机模拟分析,和未来的前景都包括在内。还考虑了使用分子制药从植物中体外生产抗病毒化合物。值得注意的是,毛状根培养物代表了获得一系列生物活性化合物的有希望和可持续的方式,这些化合物可用于开发新型抗病毒剂。
    The COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the more general global increase in viral diseases, has led researchers to look to the plant kingdom as a potential source for antiviral compounds. Since ancient times, herbal medicines have been extensively applied in the treatment and prevention of various infectious diseases in different traditional systems. The purpose of this review is to highlight the potential antiviral activity of plant compounds as effective and reliable agents against viral infections, especially by viruses from the coronavirus group. Various antiviral mechanisms shown by crude plant extracts and plant-derived bioactive compounds are discussed. The understanding of the action mechanisms of complex plant extract and isolated plant-derived compounds will help pave the way towards the combat of this life-threatening disease. Further, molecular docking studies, in silico analyses of extracted compounds, and future prospects are included. The in vitro production of antiviral chemical compounds from plants using molecular pharming is also considered. Notably, hairy root cultures represent a promising and sustainable way to obtain a range of biologically active compounds that may be applied in the development of novel antiviral agents.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    很少有出版物比较了不同的研究设计,以调查空气污染物对医疗保健访问和呼吸道疾病住院的短期影响。这项研究描述了,使用两种不同的研究设计(案例交叉设计和时间序列分析),空气污染物和呼吸系统疾病住院的关联。这项研究是在波兰的5个城市进行的,时间将近4年。DLNM和回归模型均用于评估空气污染峰值对呼吸道住院的短期影响。病例交叉和时间序列研究都同样揭示了空气污染高峰与住院发生之间的正相关。结果以呼吸就诊/住院的百分比增加的形式提供,对于两种研究设计,单一污染物水平每增加10-μg/m3。与污染物增加10μg/m3相关的住院人数估计最显著的百分比增加一般记录为颗粒物,华沙24小时PM2.5值最高(6.4%,案例交叉;4.5%,时间序列,分别)和比亚韦斯托克(5.6%,案例交叉;4.5%,时间序列,分别)。案例交叉分析结果表明,与时间序列分析的结果相比,CI较大,而滞后日更容易识别病例交叉设计。两种方法产生的结果的趋势和重叠都很好,并且表明两种研究设计都适用于空气污染对短期住院的影响。
    Very few publications have compared different study designs investigating the short-term effects of air pollutants on healthcare visits and hospitalizations for respiratory tract diseases. This study describes, using two different study designs (a case-crossover design and a time-series analysis), the association of air pollutants and respiratory disease hospitalizations. The study has been conducted on 5 cities in Poland on a timeline of almost 4 years. DLNM and regression models were both used for the assessment of the short-term effects of air pollution peaks on respiratory hospitalizations. Both case-crossover and time-series studies equally revealed a positive association between air pollution peaks and hospitalization occurrences. Results were provided in the form of percentage increase of a respiratory visit/hospitalization, for each 10-μg/m3 increment in single pollutant level for both study designs. The most significant estimated % increases of hospitalizations linked to increase of 10 μg/m3 of pollutant have been recorded in general with particulate matter, with highest values for 24 h PM2.5 in Warsaw (6.4%, case-crossover; 4.5%, time series, respectively) and in Białystok (5.6%, case-crossover; 4.5%, time series, respectively). The case-crossover analysis results have shown a larger CI in comparison to the results of the time-series analysis, while the lag days were easier to identify with the case-crossover design. The trends and the overlap of the results occurring from both methods are good and show applicability of both study designs to air pollution effects on short-term hospitalizations.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    我们估计了中国冠状病毒病例的死亡风险(3.5%);中国,不包括湖北省(0.8%);82个国家,属地,和面积(4.2%);和在游轮上(0.6%)。较低的估计值可能最接近真实值,但可能应该考虑0.25%-3.0%的宽范围。
    We estimated the case-fatality risk for coronavirus disease cases in China (3.5%); China, excluding Hubei Province (0.8%); 82 countries, territories, and areas (4.2%); and on a cruise ship (0.6%). Lower estimates might be closest to the true value, but a broad range of 0.25%-3.0% probably should be considered.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    Respiratory diseases are ranked in the top ten group of the most frequent illness in the globe. Emergency admissions are proof of this issue, especially in the winter season. For this study, the city of Santiago de Chile was chosen because of the high variability of the time series for admissions, the quality of data collected in the governmental repository DEIS (selected period: 2014-2018), and the poor ventilation conditions of the city, which in winter contributes to increase the pollution level, and therefore, respiratory emergency admissions. Different forecasting models were reviewed using the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) with other error estimators, such as the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), for selecting the best approach. At the end, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model, with parameters (p,d,q)(P,D,Q)s=(2,1,3)(3,0,2)7, was selected. The Mean Average Percentage Error (MAPE) for this model was 7.81%. After selection, an investigation of its performance was made using a cross-validation through a rolling window analysis, forecasting up to 30 days ahead (testing period of one year). The results showed that error do not exceed a MAPE of 20%. This allows taking better resource managing decisions in real scenarios: reactive staff hiring is avoided given the reduction of uncertainty for the medium term forecast, which translates into lower costs. Finally, a methodology for the selection of forecasting models is proposed, which includes other constraints from resource management, as well as the different impacts for social well-being.
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