背景:多项研究表明,环境和气候因素与心血管和呼吸系统疾病导致的死亡风险有关;然而,目前尚不清楚哪些是最有影响力的。本研究通过提供案例研究分析,揭示了数据驱动的统计方法的潜力。
方法:与每日环境和气候参数值(温度,大气压力,相对湿度,一氧化碳,臭氧,颗粒物,和二氧化氮)。随机森林(RF)模型和特征重要性度量(FMI)技术(排列特征重要性(PFI),Shapley加法扩张(SHAP)特征重要性,以及基于导数的重要性度量(κALE))用于区分每个环境和气候参数的作用。使用季节性趋势分解(STL)方法对数据进行预处理以消除趋势和季节性行为,并进行初步分析以避免信息冗余。
结果:射频性能令人鼓舞,能够预测心血管和呼吸系统疾病入院,平均绝对相对误差为每天0.04和0.05例,分别。特征重要性度量区分提供重要性排名的参数行为。的确,只有三个参数(温度,大气压力,和一氧化碳)占总预测精度的大部分。
结论:数据驱动和统计工具,比如特征重要性度量,有希望区分环境和气候因素在预测与心血管和呼吸系统疾病相关的风险中的作用。我们的研究结果揭示了在公共卫生政策应用中使用这些工具来开发解决与气候变化相关的健康风险的早期预警系统的潜力。并改进疾病预防策略。
BACKGROUND: Several studies suggest that environmental and climatic factors are linked to the risk of mortality due to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases; however, it is still unclear which are the most influential ones. This study sheds light on the potentiality of a data-driven statistical approach by providing a case study analysis.
METHODS: Daily admissions to the emergency room for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases are jointly analyzed with daily environmental and climatic parameter values (temperature, atmospheric pressure, relative humidity, carbon monoxide, ozone, particulate matter, and nitrogen dioxide). The Random Forest (RF) model and feature importance measure (FMI) techniques (permutation feature importance (PFI), Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) feature importance, and the derivative-based importance measure (κALE)) are applied for discriminating the role of each environmental and climatic parameter. Data are pre-processed to remove trend and seasonal behavior using the Seasonal Trend Decomposition (STL) method and preliminary analyzed to avoid redundancy of information.
RESULTS: The RF performance is encouraging, being able to predict cardiovascular and respiratory disease admissions with a mean absolute relative error of 0.04 and 0.05 cases per day, respectively. Feature importance measures discriminate parameter behaviors providing importance rankings. Indeed, only three parameters (temperature, atmospheric pressure, and carbon monoxide) were responsible for most of the total prediction accuracy.
CONCLUSIONS: Data-driven and statistical tools, like the feature importance measure, are promising for discriminating the role of environmental and climatic factors in predicting the risk related to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Our results reveal the potential of employing these tools in public health policy applications for the development of early warning systems that address health risks associated with climate change, and improving disease prevention strategies.