terrestrial ecosystem

陆地生态系统
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    2020年,由于COVID-19遏制政策,人为甲烷(CH4)排放量减少,但是大气中CH4的浓度却大大增加。先前的研究表明,这种异常增加与湿地CH4排放量增加和大气CH4汇减少有关。然而,土壤CH4汇变化的影响仍然未知。为了解决这个问题,我们利用基于过程的模型来量化2019年至2020年间陆地生态系统土壤CH4汇的变化。通过使用各种数据集实现模型,我们一直观察到全球土壤CH4汇的增加,与2019年相比,2020年Tg达到0.35±0.06。这种增加主要归因于北部高纬度地区土壤温度升高。我们的结果强调了在陆地生态系统中考虑CH4汇的重要性,因为忽略该成分可能导致对排放增加和大气CH4吸收容量减少的低估。此外,这些发现强调了陆地生态系统中土壤温暖增加在减缓大气中CH4浓度增长方面的潜在作用。
    In 2020, anthropogenic methane (CH4) emissions decreased due to COVID-19 containment policies, but there was a substantial increase in the concentration of atmospheric CH4. Previous research suggested that this abnormal increase was linked to higher wetland CH4 emissions and a decrease in the atmospheric CH4 sink. However, the impact of changes in the soil CH4 sink remained unknown. To address this, we utilized a process-based model to quantify alterations in the soil CH4 sink of terrestrial ecosystems between 2019 and 2020. By implementing the model with various datasets, we consistently observed an increase in the global soil CH4 sink, reaching up to 0.35 ± 0.06 Tg in 2020 compared to 2019. This increase was primarily attributed to warmer soil temperatures in northern high latitudes. Our results emphasize the importance of considering the CH4 sink in terrestrial ecosystems, as neglecting this component can lead to an underestimation of both emission increases and reductions in atmospheric CH4 sink capacity. Furthermore, these findings highlight the potential role of increased soil warmth in terrestrial ecosystems in slowing the growth of CH4 concentrations in the atmosphere.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    保护区保护生物多样性和生态系统功能,但可能会阻碍当地经济增长。了解保护区有效性与邻近社区经济增长之间的全球格局和预测因素,可以更好地实施《昆明-蒙特利尔全球生物多样性框架》。我们用匹配的样本评估了全球10,143个保护区,以解决保护区的非随机位置。我们的结果表明,保护区可以抵抗人为引起的土地覆盖变化,并且不会限制邻近定居点的夜灯增加。这个结果是强大的,使用不同的匹配技术,参数设置,和协变量的选择。我们确定了每个保护区的土地覆盖变化和夜灯变化之间的四种类型的关系:“协同,\"\"撤退,\"和两个权衡关系。尽管邻近社区的夜灯增加,但约有一半的保护区(47.5%)仍保留其自然土地覆盖。这种协同关系在全球范围内最常见,但在生物群落和大陆之间有所不同。协同作用在亚马逊地区不太频繁,东南亚,和一些发展中地区,大多数生物多样性居住在那里,遭受更多的贫困。较小的保护区和更好地进入城市的地区,适度的道路密度,和更好的基线经济条件有更高的概率达到协同作用。我们的结果很有希望,随着保护区的扩大和物种保护的增加,将更多地依赖于用较小的保护区保护人类改造的景观。未来的干预措施应同时解决地方发展和生物多样性保护问题,以实现更多的共同利益。
    Protected areas conserve biodiversity and ecosystem functions but might impede local economic growth. Understanding the global patterns and predictors of different relationships between protected area effectiveness and neighboring community economic growth can inform better implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. We assessed 10,143 protected areas globally with matched samples to address the non-random location of protected areas. Our results show that protected areas resist human-induced land cover changes and do not limit nightlight increases in neighboring settlements. This result is robust, using different matching techniques, parameter settings, and selection of covariates. We identify four types of relationships between land cover changes and nightlight changes for each protected area: \"synergy,\" \"retreat,\" and two tradeoff relationships. About half of the protected areas (47.5%) retain their natural land cover and do so despite an increase of nightlights in the neighboring communities. This synergy relationship is the most common globally but varies between biomes and continents. Synergy is less frequent in the Amazon, Southeast Asia, and some developing areas, where most biodiversity resides and which suffer more from poverty. Smaller protected areas and those with better access to cities, moderate road density, and better baseline economic conditions have a higher probability of reaching synergy. Our results are promising, as the expansion of protected areas and increased species protection will rely more on conserving the human-modified landscape with smaller protected areas. Future interventions should address local development and biodiversity conservation together to achieve more co-benefits.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    这项研究探讨了水平,分布,潜在来源,成都市8种土地利用类型下14种双酚类似物(BPs)的生态风险和雌激素活性,中国。在土壤样品中检测到11种BPs,总浓度为32.3-570ng/gd.w。土壤中双酚BP(BPBP)的水平(高达208ng/gd.w.)仅次于最主要的化合物双酚A(BPA)。与农业区(中位数:67.5ng/gd.w.)相比,在商业和居民区(中位数:136ng/gd.w.和131ng/gd.w.)在土壤中的Σ14BP积累相对较高。来源识别表明大气颗粒物沉积和连续的人为活动在BP排放中的作用。生态毒性评估暗示双酚A,双酚S(BPS),双酚F(BPF)和双酚PH(BPPH)由于其广泛的用途和生物学效应,可能对生态系统构成中低风险。计算的17β-雌二醇当量的BP在0.501-7.74pgE2/gd.w范围内,雌激素活性低于土壤中天然雌激素。
    This study explored the levels, distribution, potential sources, ecological risks and estrogenic activities of 14 bisphenol analogues (BPs) in soil under eight land-use types in the megacity of Chengdu, China. Eleven BPs were detected in the soil samples and the total concentrations ranged from 32.3 to 570 ng/g d.w. Levels of bisphenol BP (BPBP) in the soil (up to 208 ng/g d.w.) only second to the most dominant compound bisphenol A (BPA) were found. Relatively higher Σ14BP accumulation in the soil was observed in the commercial and residential areas (median: 136 ng/g d.w. and 131 ng/g d.w.) compared with agricultural area (median: 67.5 ng/g d.w.). Source identification indicated the role of atmospheric particulate deposition and consecutive anthropogenic activities in BP emission. The ecotoxicity assessment implied that BPA, bisphenol S (BPS), bisphenol F (BPF) and bisphenol PH (BPPH) might pose low to medium risk to the ecosystem due to their extensive use and biological effects. The calculated 17β-estradiol equivalents of BPs were in the range of 0.501-7.74 pg E2/g d.w, and the estrogenic activities were inferior to those contributed by natural estrogens in the soil.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    对碳循环及其在国家范围内如何应对气候变化的调查对于全面了解陆地碳循环和全球变化问题至关重要。碳通量对陆地汇的贡献以及对气候变化的影响仍未完全了解。在这项研究中,我们的目的是探索生态系统生产(3GPP/SIF/NDVI)与净生态系统碳交换(NEE)之间的关系,并在不同时空尺度上研究碳通量对气候变化的敏感性。此外,自21世纪初以来,我们试图深入研究中国由气候压力驱动的碳循环过程。为了实现这些目标,我们采用了相关性和敏感性分析技术,利用广泛的数据源,包括地面观测,遥感观测,大气反转,机器学习,和模型模拟。我们的发现表明,中国大多数干旱地区的NEE主要是由生态系统生产驱动的。气候变化对生态系统生产的影响大于呼吸。变暖对中国东北地区的生态系统生产产生了负面影响,以及亚热带和热带地区。相反,降水的增加加强了陆地碳汇,特别是在北部凉爽干燥的地区。我们还发现,中国南方的生态系统呼吸对变暖的敏感性增强。此外,我们的分析表明,从寒冷/干旱地区到温暖/潮湿地区,生态系统生产对陆地碳循环的控制逐渐减弱。我们确定了从生产主导到呼吸主导的过程的不同温度阈值(范围为10.5至13.7°C)和降水阈值(约1400mmyr-1)。我们的研究为中国气候变化与碳循环之间的复杂关系提供了宝贵的见解。
    Investigations into the carbon cycle and how it responds to climate change at the national scale are important for a comprehensive understanding of terrestrial carbon cycle and global change issues. Contributions of carbon fluxes to the terrestrial sink and the effects on climate change are still not fully understood. In this study, we aimed to explore the relationship between ecosystem production (GPP/SIF/NDVI) and net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE) and to investigate the sensitivity of carbon fluxes to climate change at different spatio-temporal scales. Furthermore, we sought to delve into the carbon cycle processes driven by climate stress in China since the beginning of the 21st century. To achieve these objectives, we employed correlation and sensitivity analysis techniques, utilizing a wide range of data sources including ground-based observations, remote sensing observations, atmospheric inversions, machine learning, and model simulations. Our findings indicate that NEE in most arid regions of China is primarily driven by ecosystem production. Climate variations have a greater influence on ecosystem production than respiration. Warming has negatively impacted ecosystem production in Northeast China, as well as in subtropical and tropical regions. Conversely, increased precipitation has strengthened the terrestrial carbon sink, particularly in the northern cool and dry areas. We also found that ecosystem respiration exhibits heightened sensitivity to warming in southern China. Moreover, our analysis revealed that the control of terrestrial carbon cycle by ecosystem production gradually weakens from cold/arid areas to warm/humid areas. We identified distinct temperature thresholds (ranging from 10.5 to 13.7 °C) and precipitation thresholds (approximately 1400 mm yr-1) for the transition from production-dominated to respiration-dominated processes. Our study provides valuable insights into the complex relationship between climate change and carbon cycle in China.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    土壤是微塑料(MPs)的源头和汇,它比水和空气更污染。在本文中,国会议员在农业中的污染水平,路边,回顾了城市土壤和垃圾填埋场土壤,以及MPs对土壤生态系统的影响,包括土壤性质,微生物,动物和植物,进行了讨论。根据体内和体外实验的结果,预测了MP对土壤生态系统和人类健康的可能风险。最后,鉴于国会议员研究的现状,为更好地评价MPs的生态风险和人类健康风险提供了一些展望。全球农业土壤中的MP浓度,路边土壤,城市土壤和垃圾填埋场土壤在不同的研究和地点有很大的差异。国会议员的参与对陆地生态系统的各个方面都有影响。对于土壤性质,pH值,堆积密度,MP可以改变孔隙空间和蒸散量。对于微生物来说,MPs可以改变微生物组的多样性和丰度,不同的MPs对细菌和真菌的作用不同。对于植物来说,MPs可能会干扰其生化和生理条件,并产生广泛的毒性作用,比如抑制植物生长,延缓或减少种子发芽,降低生物和水果产量,干扰光合作用.对于土壤动物,议员会影响他们的行动能力,生长率和生殖能力。目前尚无关于国会议员暴露和对人类健康的负面影响的流行病学证据,但是体外和体内数据表明,它们对人类健康构成各种威胁,包括呼吸系统,消化系统,泌尿系统,内分泌系统,神经系统,和循环系统。总之,国会议员的存在和危险不容忽视,需要全球努力。
    Soil is the source and sink of microplastics (MPs), which is more polluted than water and air. In this paper, the pollution levels of MPs in the agriculture, roadside, urban and landfill soils were reviewed, and the influence of MPs on soil ecosystem, including soil properties, microorganisms, animals and plants, was discussed. According to the results of in vivo and in vitro experiments, the possible risks of MPs to soil ecosystem and human health were predicted. Finally, in light of the current status of MPs research, several prospects are provided for future research directions to better evaluate the ecological risk and human health risk of MPs. MPs concentrations in global agricultural soils, roadside soils, urban soils and landfill soils had a great variance in different studies and locations. The participation of MPs has an impact on all aspects of terrestrial ecosystems. For soil properties, pH value, bulk density, pore space and evapotranspiration can be changed by MPs. For microorganisms, MPs can alter the diversity and abundance of microbiome, and different MPs have different effects on bacteria and fungi differently. For plants, MPs may interfere with their biochemical and physiological conditions and produce a wide range of toxic effects, such as inhibiting plant growth, delaying or reducing seed germination, reducing biological and fruit yield, and interfering with photosynthesis. For soil animals, MPs can affect their mobility, growth rate and reproductive capacity. At present epidemiological evidences regarding MPs exposure and negative human health effects are unavailable, but in vitro and in vivo data suggest that they pose various threats to human health, including respiratory system, digestive system, urinary system, endocrine system, nervous system, and circulation system. In conclusion, the existence and danger of MPs cannot be ignored and requires a global effort.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    生态系统总初级生产力(3GPP)对陆地-大气碳交换至关重要,近年来,全球阵的变化及其影响因素得到了很好的研究。然而,在未来的气候变化下,确定全球的时空变化仍然是一个具有挑战性的问题。这项研究旨在开发数据驱动的方法,以预测气候变化下到2100年的全球3GPP及其月度和年度变化。具体来说,Catboost被用来检查3GPP和环境因素之间的潜在关系,随着气候变量,选择CO2浓度和地形属性作为环境因素。分析了未来SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5情景下耦合模型比对项目第6阶段(CMIP6)的预测月度和年度3GPP。结果表明,在21世纪未来气候变化的背景下,全球GP1预计将增加。预计年度3GPP为115.122PgC,116.537PgC,117.626PgC,在四种未来情景下,2100年为120.097PgC,而预测的月度3GPP显示出季节性差异。同时,在北部中高纬度地区,PPI趋于增加,而在赤道地区则趋于减少。对于柯本-盖革分类的气候区,干旱的,冷,极地区呈现增加的3GPP,而在未来的热带地区将会减少。此外,气候变量在气候预测中的重要性表明,未来的气候变化是全球气候动力学的主要驱动因素。这项研究为预测未来几十年全球3GPP如何应对未来气候变化提供了基础。这有助于理解植被和气候之间的相互作用。
    The ecosystem gross primary productivity (GPP) is crucial to land-atmosphere carbon exchanges, and changes in global GPP as well as its influencing factors have been well studied in recent years. However, identifying the spatio-temporal variations of global GPP under future climate changes is still a challenging issue. This study aims to develop data-driven approach for predicting the global GPP as well as its monthly and annual variations up to the year 2100 under changing climate. Specifically, Catboost was employed to examine the potential relationship between the GPP and environmental factors, with climate variables, CO2 concentration and terrain attributes being selected as environmental factors. The predicted monthly and annual GPP from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) under future SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios were analyzed. The results indicate that the global GPP is predicted to increase under the future climate change in the 21st century. The annual GPP is expected to be 115.122 Pg C, 116.537 Pg C, 117.626 Pg C, and 120.097 Pg C in 2100 under four future scenarios, and the predicted monthly GPP shows seasonal difference. Meanwhile, GPP tends to increase in the northern mid-high latitude regions and decrease in the equatorial regions. For the climate zones form Köppen-Geiger classification, the arid, cold, and polar zones present increased GPP, while GPP in the tropical zone will decrease in the future. Moreover, the high importance of climate variables in GPP prediction illustrates that the future climate change is the main driver of the global GPP dynamics. This study provides a basis for predicting how global GPP responds to future climate change in the coming decades, which contribute to understanding the interactions between vegetation and climate.
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  • 文章类型: Meta-Analysis
    植物,土壤和微生物在维持陆地化学计量稳定中起着重要作用。在预测变暖星球上的生态系统变化时,研究这些生物和非生物参与者的营养平衡如何在温度梯度上变化是很重要的。植物各自的反应,已经观察到土壤和微生物化学计量比与变暖的关系,然而,在变暖的情况下,这三个成分之间的化学计量相关性是否以及如何变化还没有被清楚地理解和确定。在本研究中,我们基于来自74个地点或地点的600个案例研究进行了荟萃分析,以阐明变暖是否以及如何影响植物,土壤和微生物化学计量,分别,以及它们的相关性。我们的结果表明:(1)在全球范围内,与土壤和微生物池相比,植物具有更高的C:N和C:P值,但它们的氮磷分布相似;(2)变暖没有显著改变植物,土壤和微生物C:N和C:P值,但对植物氮磷比有显著影响。当生态系统类型时,考虑了变暖的持续时间和幅度,就植物之间C:N:P比变化的方向和幅度而言,存在不一致甚至相反的变暖响应,土壤和微生物;(3)尽管植物分别检测到化学计量比的各种变暖响应,土壤和微生物,即使在不同的变暖情景下,所有三个部分之间的化学计量相关性也保持不变。我们的研究强调了变暖对C:N:P化学计量的影响的复杂性,以及同时测量陆地生态系统不同组成部分的化学计量比的缺乏和重要性,在未来的研究中应该紧急加强。
    Plants, soils and microorganisms play important roles in maintaining stable terrestrial stoichiometry. Studying how nutrient balances of these biotic and abiotic players vary across temperature gradients is important when predicting ecosystem changes on a warming planet. The respective responses of plant, soil and microbial stoichiometric ratios to warming have been observed, however, whether and how the stoichiometric correlations among the three components shift under warming has not been clearly understood and identified. In the present study, we have performed a meta-analysis based on 600 case studies from 74 sites or locations to clarify whether and how warming affects plant, soil and microbial stoichiometry, respectively, and their correlations. Our results indicated that: (1) globally, plants had higher C:N and C:P values compared to soil and microbial pools, but their N:P distributions were similar; (2) warming did not significantly alter plant, soil and microbial C:N and C:P values, but had a noticeable effect on plant N:P ratios. When ecosystem types, duration and magnitude of warming were taken into account, there was an inconsistent and even inverse warming response in terms of the direction and magnitude of changes in the C:N:P ratios occurring among plants, soils and microorganisms; (3) despite various warming responses of the stoichiometric ratios detected separately for plants, soils and microorganisms, the stoichiometric correlations among all three parts remained constant even under different warming scenarios. Our study highlighted the complexity of the effect of warming on the C:N:P stoichiometry, as well as the absence and importance of simultaneous measurements of stoichiometric ratios across different components of terrestrial ecosystems, which should be urgently strengthened in future studies.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    硫(S)是自然界中广泛分布的重要常量营养素。了解S动力学的规律和机制对于准确预测S的地球物理和化学循环以及制定S的排放和管理政策具有重要意义。我们系统地调查和整合了中国陆地生态系统中的17,618个自然地块,并建立了植被的S密度数据库(包括叶子,分支,茎,和根)和表层土壤(0-30厘米深)。S含量的生物地理模式和环境驱动因素,密度,探索了陆地生态系统在植被和土壤中的储存。植被和土壤是陆地生态系统的主要组成部分,储存总共2228.77±121.72TgS,平均S密度分别为4.32±0.04×10-2和267.93±14.94×10-2thm-2。森林是最重要的植被S库,其S储量约占植被S储量的55.28%,而农田和其他植被类型的土壤S库(例如,沙漠和湿地)约占土壤总S储量的63.18%。植物根系的平均S密度(2.18±0.02×10-2thm-2)和S存储(12.45±0.31Tg)显着高于其他器官。S密度的空间变化主要受气候和土壤特性的调节,通过调节S的吸收和分配来反映植物的生理适应机制,以应对气候变化。在这项研究中,在全国范围内系统研究了中国陆地生态系统中植被和土壤S密度和储量的空间格局及其对环境因子的响应。该结果提供了对S的生物学功能及其在植物与环境相互作用中的作用的见解。
    Sulfur (S) is an important macronutrient that is widely distributed in nature. Understanding the patterns and mechanisms of S dynamics is of great significance for accurately predicting the geophysical and chemical cycles of S and formulating policies for S emission and management. We systematically investigated and integrated 17,618 natural plots in China\'s terrestrial ecosystems and built a S density database of vegetation (including leaves, branches, stems, and roots) and surface soil (0-30 cm depth). The biogeographic patterns and environmental drivers of the S content, density, and storage in the vegetation and soil of terrestrial ecosystems were explored. Vegetation and soil were the major components of terrestrial ecosystems, storing a total of 2228.77 ± 121.72 Tg S, with mean S densities of 4.32 ± 0.04 × 10-2, and 267.93 ± 14.94 × 10-2 t hm-2, respectively. The forest was the most important vegetation S pool and their S storage accounted for about 55.28 % of the total vegetation S storage, whereas soil S pools of croplands and other vegetation types (e.g., deserts and wetlands) accounted for about 63.18 % of the total soil S storage. The mean S density (2.18 ± 0.02 × 10-2 t hm-2) and S storage (12.45 ± 0.31 Tg) of plant roots were significantly higher than those of other organs. The spatial variation in the S density was mainly regulated by climate and soil properties, reflecting the physiological adaptation mechanisms of plants by adjusting the S uptake and distribution to cope with climate change. In this study, the spatial patterns of S density and storage in vegetation and soil in terrestrial ecosystems of China and their response to environmental factors on a national scale were systematically studied. The results provide insights into the biological functions of S and its role in plant-environment interactions.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    溶解有机碳(DOC)有机碳的不稳定部分,是微生物的主要底物。因此,DOC的周转主导了土壤中的微生物呼吸。我们编制了0-30厘米土壤剖面中DOC周转率的全球数据集(1096个数据点),并将数据与机器学习算法集成,以开发全球表层土壤DOC周转率的全球图。0-30厘米土壤中的全球DOC周转率平均为0.0087天1,生物群落之间存在很大差异。DOC转换率最快的是热带森林(0.0175天-1),最低的是苔原(0.0036天-1),表现出从低纬度到高纬度的下降趋势。DOC周转率主要受地理和气候因素控制,结构方程模型和心理检验的分析证实了这一点。有了机器学习算法,我们每月制作了DOC周转率的全球地图,将其与DOC密度的全球数据集进一步结合,以从表层土壤中的DOC周转中产生碳矿化的月度图。DOC的年度碳释放量估计为27.98PgC年1,来自全球表层土壤,森林生物群落贡献最大,其次是牧场和草原。苔原从DOC中释放的碳最少,因为它的低转换率被低温抑制。DOC周转率和DOC碳释放的生物和全球尺度信息为生态系统模型提供了基准,以更好地预测土壤碳动态及其在不断变化的环境中对全球碳循环的贡献。
    Dissolved organic carbon (DOC), the labile fraction of organic carbon, is a predominant substrate for microbes. Therefore, the turnover of DOC dominates microbial respiration in soils. We compiled a global dataset (1096 data points) of the turnover rates of DOC in 0-30 cm soil profiles and integrated the data with a machine learning algorithm to develop a global map of DOC turnover rate in global topsoil. The global DOC turnover rate in 0-30 cm soil was averaged as 0.0087 day-1, with a considerable variation among biomes. The fastest DOC turnover rate was found in tropical forests (0.0175 day-1) and the lowest in tundra (0.0036 day-1), exhibiting a declining trend from low to high latitudes. The DOC turnover rate is primarily controlled by edaphic and climate factors, as confirmed by the analyses with the structural equation model and the Mental\'s test. With a machine learning algorithm, we produced global maps of DOC turnover rate at a monthly scale, which were further combined with a global dataset of DOC density to produce monthly maps of carbon mineralization from DOC turnover in topsoil. The annual carbon release from DOC was estimated as 27.98 Pg C year-1 from topsoil across the globe, with the largest contribution from forest biomes, followed by pasture and grassland. Tundra released the least carbon from DOC due to its low turnover rate suppressed by low temperatures. The biome- and global-scale information of DOC turnover rate and carbon release from DOC provide a benchmark for ecosystem models to better project soil carbon dynamics and their contributions to global carbon cycling in the changing environment.
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  • 文章类型: English Abstract
    土地利用/覆被变化是导致陆地生态系统碳储量变化的主要因素。研究未来不同情景下土地利用和碳储量变化的过程将有助于制定科学的土地利用政策,增加区域陆地生态系统碳储量。构建了GMMOP-PLUS-InVEST模型,通过多源数据分析了2000-2020年西北地区土地利用和碳储量的变化特征,并预测了2030年中国西北地区在自然发展(ND)情景下的土地利用和碳储量。经济发展(ED)生态保护(EP),全面发展(CD)。结果表明:①从2000年到2020年,草地面积减少了1680.99×104hm2,林地,水域,湿地,建设用地,未利用土地分别增加201.19×104、208.47×104、91.54×104、51.30×104、157.40×104和971.09×104hm2。②从2000年到2020年,土壤和地下碳储量下降,死亡有机物和地上碳储量增加,总碳储量减少677.97×106t。草地退化是碳储量减少的主要原因。③与2020年相比,ND情景下的总碳储量减少了63.12×106t,以及ED中的总碳储量,EP,CD方案增加了759.19×106、804.57×106和817.89×106t,分别是CD情景是最优的开发模型。研究结果可为区域土地利用规划和增加陆地生态系统碳储量提供参考。
    Land use/cover change (LUCC) is the main factor leading to the change in carbon stock of terrestrial ecosystems. Studying the process of land use and carbon storage change under different scenarios in the future will help to formulate scientific land use policies and increase regional terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage. The GMMOP-PLUS-InVEST model was constructed to analyze the change characteristics of land use and carbon storage in northwest China from 2000 to 2020 through multi-source data and to predict the land use and carbon storage in northwest China in 2030 under the scenarios of natural development (ND), economic development (ED), ecological protection (EP), and comprehensive development (CD). The results showed that:①from 2000 to 2020, the area of grassland decreased by 1680.99×104 hm2, and the area of cultivated land, forest land, water area, wetland, construction land, and unused land increased by 201.19×104, 208.47×104, 91.54×104, 51.30×104, 157.40×104, and 971.09×104 hm2, respectively. ②From 2000 to 2020, soil and underground carbon storage decreased, dead organic matter and aboveground carbon storage increased, and total carbon storage decreased by 677.97×106 t. Grassland degradation was the main reason for the decrease in carbon storage. ③Compared to that in 2020, the total carbon storage in the ND scenario was reduced by 63.12×106 t, and the total carbon storage in the ED, EP, and CD scenarios increased by 759.19×106, 804.57×106, and 817.89×106 t, respectively; the CD scenario was the optimal development model. These results can provide a reference for regional land use planning and the increase of terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage.
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