在“碳中和”和可持续发展目标的背景下,评估陆地生态系统的碳储量变化和可持续性,对于维持区域生态经济的协调可持续发展和陆地生态系统的平衡具有重要意义。在这项研究中,利用InVEST模型对贵州2010-2020年陆地生态系统碳储量进行了评价。使用PLUS模型,预测了2030年和2050年陆地生态系统碳储量的分布。建立基于可持续发展目标的贵州省陆地生态系统可持续发展指标体系,对当前贵州省陆地生态系统可持续发展水平进行评价。结果表明:(1)2010-2020年陆地生态系统碳储量减少了1106.68×104Mg。森林和农田生态系统的面积和碳储量减少,而草地和聚落生态系统的面积和碳储量增加。(2)与2020年相比,到2030年陆地生态系统碳储量将减少4091.43×104Mg。与2030年相比,到2050年陆地生态系统碳储量将继续减少3833.25×104Mg。(3)2020年陆地生态系统可持续发展平均得分为0.4300分。遵义市可持续发展得分最高,为0.6255分,安顺市可持续发展得分最低,为0.3236分。总的来说,贵州陆地生态系统的可持续发展在北方较高,在南方低处,在东方的高处,西部低。贵州陆地生态系统区域可持续发展不平衡,未来陆地生态系统的碳储量将继续下降。为了提高陆地生态系统的可持续发展能力,政府需要采取一些措施,例如退耕还林还草,抑制土壤侵蚀,积极监督。
Against the background of \"carbon neutrality\" and sustainable development goals, it is of great significance to assess the carbon storage changes and sustainability of terrestrial ecosystems in order to maintain the coordinated sustainable development of regional ecological economies and the balance of terrestrial ecosystems. In this study, the terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage in Guizhou from 2010 to 2020 was assessed with the InVEST model. Using the PLUS model, the distribution of terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage by 2030 and 2050 was predicted. The current sustainable development level of the terrestrial ecosystem of Guizhou was evaluated after establishing an index system based on SDGs. The results showed the following: (1) From 2010 to 2020, the terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage decreased by 1106.68 × 104 Mg. The area and carbon storage of the forest and farmland ecosystems decreased while the area and carbon storage of the grassland and settlement ecosystems increased. (2) Compared with 2020, the terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage will be reduced by 4091.43 × 104 Mg by 2030. Compared with 2030, the terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage will continue to decrease by 3833.25 × 104 Mg by 2050. (3) In 2020, the average score of the sustainable development of the terrestrial ecosystem was 0.4300. Zunyi City had the highest sustainable development score of 0.6255, and Anshun had the lowest sustainable development score of 0.3236. Overall, the sustainable development of the terrestrial ecosystem of Guizhou was found to be high in the north, low in the south, high in the east, and low in the west. The sustainable regional development of the terrestrial ecosystem of Guizhou was found to be unbalanced, and the carbon storage of the terrestrial ecosystem will keep decreasing in the future. In order to improve the sustainable development capacity of the terrestrial ecosystem, the government needs to take certain measures, such as returning farmland to forests and grasslands, curbing soil erosion, and actively supervising.