Abstract：
Land use/cover change (LUCC) is the main factor leading to the change in carbon stock of terrestrial ecosystems. Studying the process of land use and carbon storage change under different scenarios in the future will help to formulate scientific land use policies and increase regional terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage. The GMMOP-PLUS-InVEST model was constructed to analyze the change characteristics of land use and carbon storage in northwest China from 2000 to 2020 through multi-source data and to predict the land use and carbon storage in northwest China in 2030 under the scenarios of natural development (ND), economic development (ED), ecological protection (EP), and comprehensive development (CD). The results showed that:①from 2000 to 2020, the area of grassland decreased by 1680.99×104 hm2, and the area of cultivated land, forest land, water area, wetland, construction land, and unused land increased by 201.19×104, 208.47×104, 91.54×104, 51.30×104, 157.40×104, and 971.09×104 hm2, respectively. ②From 2000 to 2020, soil and underground carbon storage decreased, dead organic matter and aboveground carbon storage increased, and total carbon storage decreased by 677.97×106 t. Grassland degradation was the main reason for the decrease in carbon storage. ③Compared to that in 2020, the total carbon storage in the ND scenario was reduced by 63.12×106 t, and the total carbon storage in the ED, EP, and CD scenarios increased by 759.19×106, 804.57×106, and 817.89×106 t, respectively; the CD scenario was the optimal development model. These results can provide a reference for regional land use planning and the increase of terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage.
摘要：
土地利用/覆被变化是导致陆地生态系统碳储量变化的主要因素。研究未来不同情景下土地利用和碳储量变化的过程将有助于制定科学的土地利用政策，增加区域陆地生态系统碳储量。构建了GMMOP-PLUS-InVEST模型，通过多源数据分析了2000-2020年西北地区土地利用和碳储量的变化特征，并预测了2030年中国西北地区在自然发展（ND）情景下的土地利用和碳储量。经济发展(ED)生态保护(EP),全面发展（CD）。结果表明:①从2000年到2020年,草地面积减少了1680.99×104hm2,林地,水域,湿地,建设用地,未利用土地分别增加201.19×104、208.47×104、91.54×104、51.30×104、157.40×104和971.09×104hm2。②从2000年到2020年，土壤和地下碳储量下降，死亡有机物和地上碳储量增加，总碳储量减少677.97×106t。草地退化是碳储量减少的主要原因。③与2020年相比，ND情景下的总碳储量减少了63.12×106t，以及ED中的总碳储量，EP,CD方案增加了759.19×106、804.57×106和817.89×106t，分别是CD情景是最优的开发模型。研究结果可为区域土地利用规划和增加陆地生态系统碳储量提供参考。
