sensitivity analysis

敏感性分析
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    机器学习(ML)方法广泛应用于颗粒物预测建模中,特别是通过使用空气质量传感器数据。尽管他们的优势,这些方法“黑箱性质”掩盖了对预测是如何做出的理解。这些类型的模型的主要问题包括数据质量和计算强度。在这项研究中,我们使用递归特征消除和全局敏感性分析的特征选择方法,为柏林市开发的基于随机森林(RF)的土地利用回归模型,德国。基于土地利用的预测因子,包括当地的气候区,叶面积指数,每日交通量,人口密度,建筑类型,建筑高度,和街道类型用于创建基线射频模型。五个额外的模型,三种使用递归特征消除方法,两种使用基于Sobol的全局灵敏度分析(GSA),实施了,并将它们的性能与基线射频模型进行了比较。讨论了使用两种方法确定的对预测有很大影响的预测因子。通过功能消除,在不牺牲模型性能的情况下,预测因子的数量从基线模型中的220个减少到简约模型中的8个.比较了模型指标,这表明,基于Parsimonious_GSA的模型比基线模型表现更好,并将平均绝对误差(MAE)从8.69µg/m3降低到3.6µg/m3,将均方根误差(RMSE)从9.86µg/m3降低到4.23µg/m3。通过减少多共线性和冗余预测因子,减少了通过模型传播的不确定性,从而使GSA_简约模型的性能更好。针对参考站进行验证的简约模型能够预测12个位置中的10个MAE小于5µg/m3的PM2.5浓度。GSA_parsimonious在所有模型指标中表现最佳,并将R2从基线模型中的3%提高到17%。然而,预测表现出一定程度的不确定性,使得区域尺度建模不可靠。尽管如此,GSA_简约模型仍可以适应当地尺度,以突出表明柏林PM2.5浓度的土地利用参数。总的来说,人口密度,叶面积指数,和交通量是PM2.5的主要预测因素,而建筑类型和当地气候带是次要预测因素。基于灵敏度分析的特征选择对模型性能有很大影响。通过灵敏度分析优化模型可以增强模型动力学的可解释性,并在对更大区域进行建模时潜在地降低计算成本和时间。
    Machine learning (ML) methods are widely used in particulate matter prediction modelling, especially through use of air quality sensor data. Despite their advantages, these methods\' black-box nature obscures the understanding of how a prediction has been made. Major issues with these types of models include the data quality and computational intensity. In this study, we employed feature selection methods using recursive feature elimination and global sensitivity analysis for a random-forest (RF)-based land-use regression model developed for the city of Berlin, Germany. Land-use-based predictors, including local climate zones, leaf area index, daily traffic volume, population density, building types, building heights, and street types were used to create a baseline RF model. Five additional models, three using recursive feature elimination method and two using a Sobol-based global sensitivity analysis (GSA), were implemented, and their performance was compared against that of the baseline RF model. The predictors that had a large effect on the prediction as determined using both the methods are discussed. Through feature elimination, the number of predictors were reduced from 220 in the baseline model to eight in the parsimonious models without sacrificing model performance. The model metrics were compared, which showed that the parsimonious_GSA-based model performs better than does the baseline model and reduces the mean absolute error (MAE) from 8.69 µg/m3 to 3.6 µg/m3 and the root mean squared error (RMSE) from 9.86 µg/m3 to 4.23 µg/m3 when applying the trained model to reference station data. The better performance of the GSA_parsimonious model is made possible by the curtailment of the uncertainties propagated through the model via the reduction of multicollinear and redundant predictors. The parsimonious model validated against reference stations was able to predict the PM2.5 concentrations with an MAE of less than 5 µg/m3 for 10 out of 12 locations. The GSA_parsimonious performed best in all model metrics and improved the R2 from 3% in the baseline model to 17%. However, the predictions exhibited a degree of uncertainty, making it unreliable for regional scale modelling. The GSA_parsimonious model can nevertheless be adapted to local scales to highlight the land-use parameters that are indicative of PM2.5 concentrations in Berlin. Overall, population density, leaf area index, and traffic volume are the major predictors of PM2.5, while building type and local climate zones are the less significant predictors. Feature selection based on sensitivity analysis has a large impact on the model performance. Optimising models through sensitivity analysis can enhance the interpretability of the model dynamics and potentially reduce computational costs and time when modelling is performed for larger areas.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在这项工作中,我们重点预测了CO2激光参数对云杉木材切缝性能的影响。激光切割的主要特点是切口的宽度和热影响区的宽度,这取决于激光功率,切削速度,和切割木材的结构,以切割年轮的数量表示。根据测量结果和人工神经网络预测结果,对于激光功率(P)和切割速度(V)的较低值,年轮(ARs)的影响是不可忽视的。敏感性分析的结果表明,在较高的能量密度(E)值下,v的影响增加。P在100和500W之间的范围内,v值在3到50mm·s-1之间,AR数在3到11之间,P=200W和v=50mm·s-1的组合,无论AR值如何,导致云杉木材的最佳切割质量。在本文中,主要目标是显示输入参数的变化如何影响所有可能的输入参数值的切割切口和热影响区的特征。
    In this work, we focus on the prediction of the influence of CO2 laser parameters on the kerf properties of cut spruce wood. Laser kerf cutting is mainly characterized by the width of kerf and the width of the heat-affected zone, which depend on the laser power, cutting speed, and structure of the cut wood, represented by the number of cut annual rings. According to the measurement results and ANN prediction results, for lower values of the laser power (P) and cutting speed (v), the effect of annual rings (ARs) is non-negligible. The results of the sensitivity analysis show that the effect of v increases at higher energy density (E) values. With P in the range between 100 and 500 W, v values between 3 and 50 mm·s-1, and AR numbers between 3 and 11, the combination of P = 200 W and v = 50 mm·s-1, regardless of the AR value, leads to the best cut quality for spruce wood. In this paper, the main goal is to show how changes in the input parameters affect the characteristics of the cutting kerf and heat-affected zones for all possible input parameter values.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    本研究采用模型还原技术(MRT)来简化四步催化一氧化碳(CO)氧化反应。C矩阵方法确定关键元素,关键/非关键组件,和关键反应,而内在低维流形(ILDM)指出了对于理解关键物种行为很重要的慢不变流形(SIM)。可以考虑灵敏度分析来测量详细机理中化学物质的效率。这种系统方法有助于优化和控制复杂反应,具有广泛的应用潜力。除了数学证明,对给定化学模型的验证进行了校正。报告了两种反应路线的慢不变流形之间的比较,并通过MATLAB获得了本研究中基于计算的结果。
    This study employs a Model Reduction Technique (MRT) to simplify the four-step catalytic carbon monoxide (CO) oxidation reaction. The C-matrix method identifies key elements, key/non key components, and key reactions, while the Intrinsic Low-Dimensional Manifold (ILDM) pinpoints a Slow-Invariant Manifold (SIM) important for understanding key species behavior. Sensitivity analysis can be considered for measuring the efficiency of the chemical species in detailed mechanism. This systematic approach contributes to optimizing and controlling complex reactions offering broad application potential. In addition to the mathematical proof, the validation of the given chemical model is rectified. The comparison between the slow invariant manifold of both reaction routes is reported and the computational based results performed in this study are obtained through MATLAB.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    这项工作评估了经济条件变化对浮动光伏的成本和可行性的影响,一种新颖的解决方案,其中模块安装在水上或水上。对多个欧洲国家的关键经济标准进行了敏感性分析,首先生成特定国家的基线情景,然后在输入参数中引入系统变化。结果表明,资本支出和电价,近年来两者都经历了重大变化,对净现值和内部收益率的影响最大。同样,资本支出和折现率是影响电力成本水平的最大因素。总的来说,本研究通过确定经济变量与浮动光伏发电的可行性之间的相关性,为文献做出了贡献。研究结果可用于评估潜在政府政策和支持机制的有效性,并评估该技术在不同的国家和国际经济条件下的可行性。
    This work evaluates the effects of economic conditions\' variations on the costs and viability of floating photovoltaics, a novel solution where modules are installed on or above water. A sensitivity analysis of key economic criteria is conducted across multiple European countries, first generating country-specific baseline scenarios and then introducing systematic variations into the input parameters. The results show that capital expenditure and electricity prices, which have both experienced significant variations in recent years, have the largest influence on the net present value and the internal rate of return. Similarly, capital expenditure and discount rate are found to be the most influencing factors for the levelized cost of electricity. Overall, this study contributes to the literature by identifying the correlations between the economic variables and the viability of floating photovoltaics. The findings can be used to assess the effectiveness of potential government policies and support mechanisms and to evaluate the viability of this technology under varying national and international economic conditions.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    本研究通过使用常微分方程(ODE)对多步化学动力学过程进行详细分析,对化学动力学领域做出了重大贡献。目的是描述复杂的化学过程\'动力学和化学物质的稳态行为。该研究采用简化技术,通过根据时间尺度分离快速和慢速过程来简化模型,重点是两步可逆反应机理。特别考虑了平衡点附近溶液轨迹的相流,提供系统行为的清晰描述。MATLAB模拟演示了观测数据的物理性质,而敏感性分析揭示了参数对物种行为的影响。总的来说,这项研究增强了我们对化学动力学的理解,并提供了对复杂反应过程建模的见解,对化学和相关领域的各种应用有影响。
    This study presents a significant contribution to the field of chemical kinetics by providing a detailed analysis of a multi-step chemical kinetic process using ordinary differential equations (ODEs). The aim is to describe complex chemical processes\' kinetics and the steady-state behavior of chemical species. The research employs reduction techniques to simplify the model by separating fast and slow processes based on their time scales, with a focus on a two-step reversible reaction mechanism. Special consideration is given to the phase flow of solution trajectories near equilibrium points, providing a clear depiction of system behavior. MATLAB simulations demonstrate the physical properties of observed data, while sensitivity analysis reveals parameters\' impact on species behavior. Overall, this study enhances our understanding of chemical kinetics and offers insights into modeling complex reaction processes, with implications for various applications in chemistry and related fields.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    有机磷酸酯(OPEs)已被证明在全球水生环境中普遍存在。然而,了解它们在沉积物-水界面的分配行为和机制仍然有限。这项研究阐明了空间异质性,界面交换,以及14种OPEs(∑14OPEs)从河流到沿海水生系统的扩散机制。使用逸度方法定量评估了OPEs在沉积物-水界面的传输趋势。水和沉积物中的∑14OPEs总浓度范围为154ng/L至528ng/L,2.41ng/g干重(dw)至230ng/gdw,分别。该结果表明空间趋势下降,变异性适中。OPE分布主要受温度影响,pH值,和溶解氧水平。随着碳原子数的增加,烷基和氯化OPEs从扩散到水相过渡到平衡。相比之下,芳基OPEs和氧化三苯基膦,具有相等的碳原子数,始终保持平衡。在相同的总有机碳含量(foc)下,沉积物-水界面处单个OPE同源物的扩散趋势有所不同。随着FOC的增加,所有OPE同系物的逸度分数值均呈下降趋势。每个OPE单体的独特分子结构可能导致在沉积物-水界面处的独特扩散行为。较高的碳烟含量对OPEs的分布模式有更明显的影响。OPEs的沉积物-水分布主要受总有机碳的影响,沉积物粒径,干密度,和水分含量。OPEs对铵和溶解有机碳的波动表现出最高的敏感性。这项研究对于阐明OPEs的界面运输和驱动力以及理解其在水生生态系统中的命运和内源性释放具有重要的科学和理论意义。
    Organophosphate esters (OPEs) have proven to be pervasive in aquatic environments globally. However, understanding their partitioning behavior and mechanisms at the sediment-water interface remains limited. This study elucidated the spatial heterogeneity, interfacial exchange, and diffusion mechanisms of 14 OPEs (∑14OPEs) from river to coastal aquatic system. The transport tendencies of OPEs at the sediment-water interface were quantitatively assessed using fugacity methods. The total ∑14OPEs concentrations in water and sediments ranged from 154 ng/L to 528 ng/L and 2.41 ng/g dry weight (dw) to 230 ng/g dw, respectively. This result indicated a descending spatial tendency with moderate variability. OPE distribution was primarily influenced by temperature, pH, and dissolved oxygen levels. As the carbon atom number increased, alkyl and chlorinated OPEs transitioned from diffusion towards the aqueous phase to equilibrium. In contrast, aryl OPEs and triphenylphosphine oxide, which had equivalent carbon atom counts, maintained equilibrium throughout. Diffusion trends of individual OPE congener at the sediment-water interface varied at the same total organic carbon contents (foc). As the foc increased, the fugacity fraction values for all OPE homologs showed a declining trend. The distinct molecular structure of each OPE monomer might lead to unique diffusive behaviors at the sediment-water interface. Higher soot carbon content had a more pronounced effect on the distribution patterns of OPEs. The sediment-water distribution of OPEs was primarily influenced by total organic carbon, sediment particle size, dry density, and moisture content. OPEs displayed the highest sensitivity to fluctuations in ammonium and dissolved organic carbon. This study holds significant scientific and theoretical implications for elucidating the interfacial transport and driving forces of OPEs and comprehending their fate and endogenous release in aquatic ecosystems.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    重新绿化废弃的农田通过碳(C)抵消提供了基于自然的气候解决方案;但是,在这种恢复的生态系统中,人们对C循环-气候反馈知之甚少。因此,我们在黄土高原进行了为期两年的田间试验,中国,为了确定变暖(~1.4℃)和降水变化(±25%,±50%,和环境),单独或一致地在土壤碳库和相关的碳通量上。实验变暖显着增强了土壤呼吸,而不影响生态系统的净碳吸收和土壤碳储量;这些变量倾向于沿操纵的降水梯度增加。与单一变暖或降水变化相比,它们的相互作用增加了生态系统的净碳吸收(协同作用),但降低了土壤呼吸和土壤碳积累(拮抗作用)。此外,与C循环相关的大多数变量倾向于对增加的降水更敏感,但是生态系统的净碳吸收对变暖和降水减少反应强烈。总的来说,生态系统净碳吸收和土壤碳储量分别增加了94.4%和8.2%,分别,在温暖潮湿的情况下;然而,在这些气候条件下,磷缺乏限制了土壤碳的积累。相比之下,生态系统净碳吸收和土壤碳储量分别下降了56.6%和13.6%,分别,当暴露在温暖干燥的气候中时,加强其朝向C源的趋势。因此,半干旱废弃农田的C汇功能是不可持续的。我们的研究结果强调,在气候变化的背景下,需要对废弃后的再生进行管理,以维持生态系统C的隔离。协助政策制定者在废弃地区开发C中性路线。
    Rewilding abandoned farmlands provides a nature-based climate solution via carbon (C) offsetting; however, the C-cycle-climate feedback in such restored ecosystems is poorly understood. Therefore, we conducted a 2-year field experiment in Loess Plateau, China, to determine the impacts of warming (~1.4 °C) and altered precipitation (±25 %, ±50 %, and ambient), alone or in concert on soil C pools and associated C fluxes. Experimental warming significantly enhanced soil respiration without affecting the ecosystem net C uptake and soil C storage; these variables tended to increase along the manipulated precipitation gradient. Their interactions increased ecosystem net C uptake (synergism) but decreased soil respiration and soil C accumulation (antagonism) compared with a single warming or altered precipitation. Additionally, most variables related to the C cycle tended to be more responsive to increased precipitation, but the ecosystem net C uptake responded intensely to warming and decreased precipitation. Overall, ecosystem net C uptake and soil C storage increased by 94.4 % and 8.2 %, respectively, under the warmer-wetter scenario; however, phosphorus deficiency restricted soil C accumulation under these climatic conditions. By contrast, ecosystem net C uptake and soil C storage decreased by 56.6 % and 13.6 %, respectively, when exposed to the warmer-drier climate, intensifying its tendency toward a C source. Therefore, the C sink function of semiarid abandoned farmland was unsustainable. Our findings emphasize the need for management of post-abandonment regeneration to sustain ecosystem C sequestration in the context of climate change, aiding policymakers in the development of C-neutral routes in abandoned regions.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    泥沙输送,涉及盆地中床负荷和悬浮泥沙的移动,是一个严重的环境问题,加剧了水资源短缺,导致土地及其生态系统退化。机器学习(ML)算法已成为预测沉积物产量的强大工具。然而,决策者使用它们可以归因于对它们与所涉及的物理过程的一致性的担忧。鉴于这个问题,这项研究旨在开发一种基于物理学的ML方法来预测沉积物产量。为了实现这一目标,高斯,Center,常规,和直接Copulas被用来生成子盆地和水文数据集的物理虚拟组合。然后利用这些数据集来训练深度神经网络(DNN),传统神经网络(CNN),额外的树,和XGBoost(XGB)模型。将这些模型的性能与修正的通用土壤流失方程(MUSLE)进行了比较,它作为基于流程的模型。结果表明,ML模型优于MUSLE模型,纳什-萨克利夫效率(NSE)提高了约10%,18%,32%,DNN占41%,CNN,额外的树,和XGB型号,分别。此外,通过Sobol灵敏度和基于Shapley加性解释的可解释性分析,结果表明,ExtraTree模型与MUSLE建模的沉积物运输基础物理过程具有更大的一致性。拟议的框架为提高ML模型在预测沉积物产量方面的准确性和适用性提供了新的见解,同时保持与自然过程的一致性。因此,它可以证明在模拟过程相关的策略是有价值的,旨在减轻流域尺度的泥沙运输,例如实施最佳管理实践。
    The sediment transport, involving the movement of the bedload and suspended sediment in the basins, is a critical environmental concern that worsens water scarcity and leads to degradation of land and its ecosystems. Machine learning (ML) algorithms have emerged as powerful tools for predicting sediment yield. However, their use by decision-makers can be attributed to concerns regarding their consistency with the involved physical processes. In light of this issue, this study aims to develop a physics-informed ML approach for predicting sediment yield. To achieve this objective, Gaussian, Center, Regular, and Direct Copulas were employed to generate virtual combinations of physical of the sub-basins and hydrological datasets. These datasets were then utilized to train deep neural network (DNN), conventional neural network (CNN), Extra Tree, and XGBoost (XGB) models. The performance of these models was compared with the modified universal soil loss equation (MUSLE), which serves as a process-based model. The results demonstrated that the ML models outperformed the MUSLE model, exhibiting improvements in Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of approximately 10%, 18%, 32%, and 41% for the DNN, CNN, Extra Tree, and XGB models, respectively. Furthermore, through Sobol sensitivity and Shapley additive explanation-based interpretability analyses, it was revealed that the Extra Tree model displayed greater consistency with the physical processes underlying sediment transport as modeled by MUSLE. The proposed framework provides new insights into enhancing the accuracy and applicability of ML models in forecasting sediment yield while maintaining consistency with natural processes. Consequently, it can prove valuable in simulating process-related strategies aimed at mitigating sediment transport at watershed scales, such as the implementation of best management practices.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在兰契地区上斯瓦恩雷卡流域的风化硬岩含水层中,对地下水脆弱性进行了全面的季节性评估,印度。线密度(Ld)和土地利用/土地覆盖(LULC)被整合到传统的DRASTIC和农药DRASTIC(P-DRASTIC)模型中,并与六个修改的模型进行了广泛的比较,viz.DRASTIC-Ld,DRASTIC-Lu,Dratic-LdLu,P-DRASTIC-Ld,P-DRASTIC-Lu,和P-DRASTIC-LDLu,确定该地区硬岩地形脆弱性测绘的最优模型。在2022年季风前(Pre-M)和季风后(Post-M)期间,使用68口井的NO3-浓度对调查结果进行了地球化学验证。无论应用的模型如何,地下水脆弱性表现出显著的季节性变化,>45%的区域在前M被归类为高至非常高的脆弱性,在M后赛季增加到67%,强调季节性脆弱性评估的重要性。农业和工业占主导地位的南部地区表现出更高的脆弱性,其次是高Ld和薄风化带的区域。将Ld和LULC参数纳入DRASTIC-LdLu和P-DRASTIC-LdLu模型,将M前的“非常高”漏洞区域增加到17.4%和17.6%,将M后的29.4%和27.9%,分别。同样,对于各个型号,“高”易损区域从M前的32.5%和25%增加到M后的33.8%和35.3%。模型输出比较表明,修改后的DRASTIC-LDLu和P-DRASTIC-LDLu表现更好,前M和后M的准确估计为83.8%和89.7%,分别。然而,地球化学验证结果表明,在所有应用的修改模型中,DRASTIC-LDLU表现最好,前M和后M的准确估计为34.4%和20.6%,分别。
    A comprehensive seasonal assessment of groundwater vulnerability was conducted in the weathered hard rock aquifer of the upper Swarnrekha watershed in Ranchi district, India. Lineament density (Ld) and land use/land cover (LULC) were integrated into the conventional DRASTIC and Pesticide DRASTIC (P-DRASTIC) models and were extensively compared with six modified models, viz. DRASTIC-Ld, DRASTIC-Lu, DRASTIC-LdLu, P-DRASTIC-Ld, P-DRASTIC-Lu, and P-DRASTIC-LdLu, to identify the most optimal model for vulnerability mapping in hard rock terrain of the region. Findings were geochemically validated using NO3- concentrations of 68 wells during pre-monsoon (Pre-M) and post-monsoon (Post-M) 2022. Irrespective of the applied model, groundwater vulnerability shows significant seasonal variation, with > 45% of the region classified as high to very high vulnerability in the pre-M, increasing to ̴67% in post-M season, highlighting the importance of seasonal vulnerability assessments. Agriculture and industries\' dominant southern region showed higher vulnerability, followed by regions with high Ld and thin weathered zone. Incorporating Ld and LULC parameters into DRASTIC-LdLu and P-DRASTIC-LdLu models increases the \'Very High\' vulnerability zones to 17.4% and 17.6% for pre-M and 29.4% and 27.9% for post-M, respectively. Similarly, \'High\' vulnerable zones increase from 32.5% and 25% in pre-M to 33.8% and 35.3% in post-M for respective models. Model output comparisons suggest that modified DRASTIC-LdLu and P-DRASTIC-LdLu perform better, with accurate estimations of 83.8% and 89.7% for pre-M and post-M, respectively. However, results of geochemical validation suggest that among all the applied modified models, DRASTIC-LdLu performs best, with accurate estimations of 34.4% and 20.6% for pre-M and post-M, respectively.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    实验室规模的中温浸没式厌氧混合膜生物反应器(An-HMBR)运行270天,用于处理不同水力停留时间(HRT)的高强度合成废水(3天,2天,1天,和0.5天)。化学需氧量(COD)的去除效率为92%,在1天的HRT下甲烷产率为0.18LCH4/gCOD。在1天HRT下的实验室规模反应器的结果用于放大和成本分析。成本分析表明,总资本成本包括储罐系统(48%),膜成本(32%),屏幕和PUF海绵(各5%),PLC(4%),液体泵(3%),其他(2%)。运营成本包括化学品成本(46%),泵送能量(42%),和污泥处置(12%)。结果表明,对于全尺寸An-HMBR,储罐和加热成本占总生命周期成本的最大部分。加热成本可以通过气体回收来补偿。敏感性分析表明,利率,进水流量,膜通量是影响An-HMBR总成本的最关键参数。
    A laboratory-scale mesophilic submerged anaerobic hybrid membrane bioreactor (An-HMBR) was operated for 270 days for the treatment of high-strength synthetic wastewater at different hydraulic retention times (HRTs) (3 days, 2 days, 1 day, and 0.5 days). Chemical oxygen demand (COD) removal efficiency of 92% was obtained with methane yield rate of 0.18 LCH4/g CODremoval at 1-day HRT. The results of lab scale reactor at 1-day HRT were utilized for upscaling and cost analysis. Cost analysis revealed that the total capital cost comprised tank system (48%), membrane cost (32%), screen and PUF sponge (5% each), PLCs (4%), liquid pumps (3%), and others (2%). The operational cost comprised chemical cost (46%), pumping energy (42%), and sludge disposal (12%). The results revealed that the tank and heating costs accounted for the largest fraction of the total life cycle cost for full-scale An-HMBR. The heating cost can be compensated by gas recovery. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the interest rates, influent flow, and membrane flux were the most crucial parameters which affected the total cost of An-HMBR.
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