sensitivity analysis

敏感性分析
  • 文章类型: Systematic Review
    人们已经认识到,与艾滋病毒相关的污名阻碍了检测工作,治疗,和预防。在这次系统审查中,我们的目的是总结艾滋病毒相关的污名和年龄之间的关联的现有发现,社会支持,教育状况,抑郁症,就业状况,财富指数,性别,residence,关于艾滋病毒的知识,婚姻状况,自诊断以来的持续时间,和披露状况使用了大量的研究。
    电子数据库,包括Scopus,Medline/PubMed,WebofSciences(WOS),科克伦图书馆,谷歌学者,和开放研究数据集挑战进行了系统搜索,直到2023年4月15日。我们包括了各种艾滋病毒污名研究,不管语言,发布日期,或地理位置。40项研究符合纳入标准,共有171627名患者。使用混合效应模型来汇集估计值和评估发表偏差,以及进行敏感性分析。
    年龄等因素,社会支持,高等教育,更高的社会经济地位,良好的艾滋病毒知识,和更长的艾滋病毒感染年限显著降低了与艾滋病毒相关的耻辱的可能性。相反,抑郁等因素,居住在农村地区,女性受访者,和未披露HIV状况与HIV相关污名的高风险显著相关.
    为了对抗与艾滋病毒相关的系统性耻辱,通过提高社区一级的艾滋病毒认识,发展健康和全面的社会方法至关重要。除了激进主义,地方经济发展对于建立具有强大社会结构的繁荣社区也至关重要。
    UNASSIGNED: It has been recognized that HIV-related stigma hinders efforts in testing, treatment, and prevention. In this systematic review, we aimed to summarize available findings on the association between HIV-related stigma and age, social support, educational status, depression, employment status, wealth index, gender, residence, knowledge about HIV, marital status, duration since diagnosis, and disclosure status using a large number of studies.
    UNASSIGNED: Electronic databases including Scopus, Medline/PubMed, Web of Sciences (WOS), Cochrane Library, Google Scholar, and Open Research Dataset Challenge were systematically searched until 15 April 2023. We included all kinds of HIV-stigma studies, regardless of language, publishing date, or geographic location. The inclusion criteria were met by 40 studies, with a total of 171,627 patients. A mixed-effect model was used to pool estimates and evaluate publication bias, as well as to conduct sensitivity analysis.
    UNASSIGNED: Factors such as older age, social support, greater education, higher socioeconomic status, good knowledge of HIV, and longer years of living with HIV significantly lowered the likelihood of HIV-related stigma. Contrarily, factors such as depression, residing in rural areas, female respondents, and non-disclosure of HIV status were significantly associated with a high risk of HIV-related stigma.
    UNASSIGNED: To combat systemic HIV-associated stigma, it is crucial to develop wholesome and comprehensive social methods by raising community-level HIV awareness. In addition to activism, local economic development is also crucial for creating thriving communities with a strong social fabric.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:我们的目的是证明定量偏倚分析(QBA)的使用,揭示了系统误差的影响,包括混淆,错误分类和选择偏差,关于2010年至23年中期间发表的流行病学研究的研究结果。
    方法:通过使用Pubmed和Scopus的关键词搜索确定的文章被纳入研究。根据排除标准,从这次搜索中获得的文章被删除,并将应用QBA分析的文章纳入详细评估中。
    结果:可以说,在13年的时间里,QBA分析的应用逐渐增加。因此,QBA分析中使用简单方法的文章数为9篇(9.89%),使用多维方法的文章数量为10(10.99%),使用概率方法的文章数为60(65.93%),未指定方法的文章数为12(13.19%)。错误分类偏差模型的文章数量为44篇(48.35%),具有不受控制的混杂偏差模型的文章数量为32(35.16%),选择偏倚模型的文章数为7(7.69%),使用多个偏倚模型的文章数为8(8.79%)。在指定偏置参数来源的49篇文章(53.85%)中,19(38.78%)使用内部验证,26(53.06%)使用外部验证,4(8.16%)使用有根据的猜测,数据约束和假设数据。概率方法在60篇(65.93%)的文章中被用作偏见方法,主要是贝塔(8[13.33%)],选择正常(9[15.00%])和均匀(8[13.33%])分布。
    结论:QBA的应用在文献中很少见,但随着时间的推移而增加。未来的研究人员应该包括详细的分析,如QBA分析,以获得具有更高证据价值的推论,考虑到系统误差。
    OBJECTIVE: We aimed to demonstrate the use of quantitative bias analysis (QBA), which reveals the effects of systematic error, including confounding, misclassification and selection bias, on study results in epidemiological studies published in the period from 2010 to mid-23.
    METHODS: The articles identified through a keyword search using Pubmed and Scopus were included in the study. The articles obtained from this search were eliminated according to the exclusion criteria, and the articles in which QBA analysis was applied were included in the detailed evaluation.
    RESULTS: It can be said that the application of QBA analysis has gradually increased over the 13-year period. Accordingly, the number of articles in which simple is used as a method in QBA analysis is 9 (9.89%), the number of articles in which the multidimensional approach is used is 10 (10.99%), the number of articles in which the probabilistic approach is used is 60 (65.93%) and the number of articles in which the method is not specified is 12 (13.19%). The number of articles with misclassification bias model is 44 (48.35%), the number of articles with uncontrolled confounder(s) bias model is 32 (35.16%), the number of articles with selection bias model is 7 (7.69%) and the number of articles using more than one bias model is 8 (8.79%). Of the 49 (53.85%) articles in which the bias parameter source was specified, 19 (38.78%) used internal validation, 26 (53.06%) used external validation and 4 (8.16%) used educated guess, data constraints and hypothetical data. Probabilistic approach was used as a bias method in 60 (65.93%) of the articles, and mostly beta (8 [13.33%)], normal (9 [15.00%]) and uniform (8 [13.33%]) distributions were selected.
    CONCLUSIONS: The application of QBA is rare in the literature but is increasing over time. Future researchers should include detailed analyzes such as QBA analysis to obtain inferences with higher evidence value, taking into account systematic errors.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    阿尔茨海默病是一种复杂的疾病,多因素,和多参数神经退行性病因。数学模型可以通过提供一种探索和概念化原理的方法来帮助理解这样一个复杂的问题,将生物学知识与实验数据合并为适合模拟和外部验证的模型,所有这些都不需要广泛的临床试验。我们根据PRISMA标准对描述由生物物理因素导致的阿尔茨海默病的发病和发展的数学模型进行了范围审查。我们应用于PubMed数据库的搜索策略产生了846个条目。在使用我们的排除标准后,我们只剩下17项研究从中提取数据,它集中在数学建模的三个方面:作者如何解决连续时间(因为即使测量是准时的,阿尔茨海默病背后的生物过程不断进化),模型是如何解决的,以及如何管理模型的高维性和非线性。大多数文章在细胞水平上模拟了阿尔茨海默病,在短时间尺度上运行(例如,分钟或小时),即,微观视图(12/17);其余的被认为是时间尺度较长的区域或大脑层面的过程(例如,年或年)(宏观视图)。大多数论文主要涉及淀粉样蛋白β(n=8),很少描述淀粉样β和tau蛋白(n=3),而有些人考虑了不止这两个因素(n=6)。模型使用偏微分方程(n=3),常微分方程(n=7),以及偏微分方程和常微分方程(n=3)。有些人没有指定他们的数学形式主义(n=4)。敏感性分析仅在少数论文中进行(4/17)。总的来说,我们发现只有两项研究在参数和结论方面可以被认为是有效的,还有两个部分有效。这将大多数(n=13)视为无效或没有足够的信息来确定其状态。这是我们论文的主要发现,严重的缺点使其结果无效或不可重复。这些缺点来自方法论描述不足,校准不良,或者无法通过实验验证或校准模型。未来的作者应该解决这些缺点,以揭示数学模型在阿尔茨海默病中的有用性。
    Alzheimer\'s disease is a complex, multi-factorial, and multi-parametric neurodegenerative etiology. Mathematical models can help understand such a complex problem by providing a way to explore and conceptualize principles, merging biological knowledge with experimental data into a model amenable to simulation and external validation, all without the need for extensive clinical trials. We performed a scoping review of mathematical models describing the onset and evolution of Alzheimer\'s disease as a result of biophysical factors following the PRISMA standard. Our search strategy applied to the PubMed database yielded 846 entries. After using our exclusion criteria, only 17 studies remained from which we extracted data, which focused on three aspects of mathematical modeling: how authors addressed continuous time (since even when the measurements are punctual, the biological processes underlying Alzheimer\'s disease evolve continuously), how models were solved, and how the high dimensionality and non-linearity of models were managed. Most articles modeled Alzheimer\'s disease at the cellular level, operating on a short time scale (e.g., minutes or hours), i.e., the micro view (12/17); the rest considered regional or brain-level processes with longer timescales (e.g., years or decades) (the macro view). Most papers were concerned primarily with amyloid beta (n = 8), few described both amyloid beta and tau proteins (n = 3), while some considered more than these two factors (n = 6). Models used partial differential equations (n = 3), ordinary differential equations (n = 7), and both partial differential equations and ordinary differential equations (n = 3). Some did not specify their mathematical formalism (n = 4). Sensitivity analyses were performed in only a small number of papers (4/17). Overall, we found that only two studies could be considered valid in terms of parameters and conclusions, and two more were partially valid. This puts the majority (n = 13) as being either invalid or with insufficient information to ascertain their status. This was the main finding of our paper, in that serious shortcomings make their results invalid or non-reproducible. These shortcomings come from insufficient methodological description, poor calibration, or the impossibility of experimentally validating or calibrating the model. Those shortcomings should be addressed by future authors to unlock the usefulness of mathematical models in Alzheimer\'s disease.
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  • 文章类型: Meta-Analysis
    目的:有越来越多的证据表明维生素D缺乏和视神经脊髓炎谱系障碍(NMOSD)的风险。这项荟萃分析的目的是评估NMOSD患者与健康对照组的血清维生素D水平。
    方法:我们搜索了PubMed,EMBASE,科克伦图书馆,WebofScience和CNKI提供截至2022年11月的出版物,并探讨了NMOSD与血清维生素D水平之间的关系。使用随机效应模型计算标准化平均差(SMD)和95%置信区间(CI)。应用亚组分析和敏感性分析探讨异质性的来源。Begg\'stest,Egger\'stest,采用Egger漏斗图评价发表偏倚。
    结果:6项研究(包括319名患者和595名健康对照)符合纳入标准,所有研究都比较了NMOSD患者与健康对照的维生素D水平。NMOSD患者血清维生素D水平明显低于健康对照组(SMD=-1.57,95%CI=-2.27~-0.87,P<0.001,I2=94.6%)。不同敏感性分析的结果仍然具有统计学意义,这证明了荟萃分析的稳健性。meta分析中没有显著的发表偏倚(P>0.05)。
    结论:与健康对照组相比,NMOSD患者的维生素D水平显著降低。我们的发现强调了测量NMOSD患者维生素D水平的重要性。大样本的多中心随机对照试验将进一步证实这种关联是否是偶然和可修改的。
    There\'s an increasing body of evidence on vitamin D deficiency and the risk of neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (NMOSD). The aim of this meta-analysis was to assess serum vitamin D levels in patients with NMOSD versus healthy controls.
    We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, Web of Science and CNKI for publications up to November 2022 and explored the relationship between NMOSD and serum vitamin D levels. The standardized mean differences (SMD) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using a random-effects model. Subgroup analysis and sensitivity analysis were applied to explore the sources of heterogeneity. Begg\'s test, Egger\'s test, and Egger\'s funnel plot were adopted to evaluate publication bias.
    6 studies (including 319 patients and 595 healthy controls) met the inclusion criteria and all compared vitamin D levels in patients with NMOSD versus healthy controls. Levels of serum vitamin D detected in NMOSD patients were significantly lower than those in healthy controls (SMD=-1.57, 95% CI=-2.27 ∼ -0.87, P<0.001, I2 = 94.6%). The results of the different sensitivity analysis remained statistically significant, which demonstrated the robustness of the meta-analysis. There was no significant publication bias in our meta-analysis (P>0.05).
    Patients with NMOSD showed significantly reduced vitamin D levels compared with healthy controls. Our findings highlighted the importance of measuring vitamin D levels in patients with NMOSD. Multi-center randomized controlled trials with large samples will further confirm whether the association is casual and modifiable.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:本综述通过评估乳腺癌患者随机对照试验(RCT)出版物中报道的统计学处理的当前实践,解决了临床试验中缺少患者报告结果(PRO)数据的常见问题。
    方法:我们搜索了PubMed,以确定评估2019年1月至2022年2月期间至少有一个PRO终点的乳腺癌患者生物医学治疗的RCT。两名审稿人独立评估了出版物对范围审查的资格,并提取了有关缺失的PRO数据和相关统计实践的预先指定信息。
    结果:在确定的1.598种出版物中,118项试验符合纳入标准。88项(74.6%)试验报告了缺失数据的程度,其中11个(9.3%)不包含任何缺失的PRO数据。21项(19.6%)试验明确指出了处理缺失数据的统计方法,与多种插补方法相比,更倾向于单一插补(57.2%/19.0%)。只有六项(5.6%)试验报告了敏感性分析,以检查结果受到关于缺失PRO数据的假设变化的影响程度。
    结论:国际上为提高对准确报告最新处理缺失PRO数据的重要性的认识所做的努力尚未充分反映在当前的乳腺癌随机对照试验文献中。
    This review addresses the common problem of missing patient-reported outcome (PRO) data in clinical trials by assessing the current practice of their statistical handling as reported in publications of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in patients with breast cancer.
    We searched PubMed to identify RCTs evaluating biomedical treatments in breast cancer patients with at least one PRO endpoint published between January 2019 and February 2022. Two reviewers independently assessed the eligibility of the publications for this scoping review and extracted prespecified information on missing PRO data and related statistical practices.
    Of 1,598 publications identified, 118 trials met the inclusion criteria. Eighty-eight (74.6%) trials reported the extent of missing data, with 11 (9.3%) not containing any missing PRO data. Twenty-one (19.6%) trials explicitly stated the statistical approach for handling missing data, with a preference for single imputation over multiple imputation approaches (57.2%/19.0%). Only six (5.6%) trials reported a sensitivity analysis to examine the extent to the results being affected by changes in assumptions made about missing PRO data.
    International efforts to raise awareness of the importance of accurately reporting state-of-the-art handling of missing PRO data are not yet fully reflected in the current literature of breast cancer RCTs.
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  • 文章类型: Systematic Review
    目的:本研究旨在回顾,评估,并报告在已发表的免疫肿瘤学药物经济评估的背景下进行的敏感性分析(SA)的特征和策略。
    方法:在Scopus和MEDLINE中对2005年至2021年发表的文章进行了系统的文献检索。研究选择,基于一组预定义的标准,由两名审稿人独立进行。我们纳入了食品和药物管理局批准的免疫肿瘤学药物的经济评估,这些药物以英文出版,并评估了随附的SAs。包括确定性SA内基线参数的范围调整,参数之间的相关性/重叠的规定,以及为概率SA选择的参数分布的合理性,在其他人中。
    结果:295份出版物中,共有98份符合纳入标准。共有90项研究包括单向和概率SA,98项研究中有16项进行了单向和情景分析,单独或与概率分析一起。大多数研究为参数和值的选择提供了明确的参考;然而,在大多数评估中,参数之间缺乏相关性/重叠的参考。在98项研究中的26项,增量成本-效果比最具影响力的参数是评估中的药物成本.
    结论:大多数收录的文章都包含根据公认的已发布指南实施的SA。评估不足的药品成本,无进展生存期的估计,总生存率的危险比,分析的时间范围似乎在结果的稳健性中起着重要作用。
    OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to review, assess, and report the characteristics and strategies of sensitivity analyses (SAs) that were performed in the context of published economic evaluations of immuno-oncology drugs.
    METHODS: The systematic literature search was conducted in Scopus and MEDLINE for articles published from 2005 to 2021. Study selection, based on a predefined set of criteria, was performed by 2 reviewers independently. We included economic evaluations of Food and Drug Administration-approved immuno-oncology drugs that were published in English and assessed the accompanying SAs on a set of items, including the range justification of the baseline parameters within the deterministic SA, the provisions for the correlation/overlay between parameters, and the justification of the chosen parameter distribution for the probabilistic SA, among others.
    RESULTS: A total of 98 of 295 publications met the inclusion criteria. A total of 90 studies included a one-way and probabilistic SA and 16 of 98 studies had one-way and scenario analysis, alone or together with probabilistic analysis. Most studies provide explicit references as to the choice of parameters and values; nevertheless, there is a lack of a reference of correlation/overlay between parameters in most of the evaluations. In 26 of 98 studies, the most influential parameter for the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was the under-evaluation drug cost.
    CONCLUSIONS: Most of included articles contained an SA that was implemented according to commonly accepted published guidance. The under-evaluation drug cost, the estimates of progression-free survival, the hazard ratio for overall survival, and the time horizon of the analysis seem to play an important part in the robustness of the outcomes.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    快速的城市化和消费生活方式加剧了城市地区的空气污染。大城市的空气污染对人类健康造成了严重的环境损害。正确管理该问题需要确定排放源的份额。因此,许多研究工作研究了不同排放源之间总排放量和观测浓度的分配。在这项研究中,进行了全面审查,以比较德黑兰特大城市环境空气PM2.5的来源分配结果,伊朗首都。一百七十七篇科学文献,发表于2005年至2021年之间,进行了审查。综述的研究根据来源分配方法进行分类:排放清单(EI),来源分配(SA),和浓度对排放源(SNA)的敏感性分析。根据研究范围和实施方法,讨论了结果之间不一致的可能原因。尽管85%的审查原始估计确定移动源造成超过60%的德黑兰空气污染,在EI研究中,车辆类型和模式的分布明显不一致。我们的审查表明,德黑兰中部不同地点的SA研究的一致结果可能表明该方法用于识别排放源的类型和份额的可靠性。相比之下,EI研究的地理和部门覆盖范围之间的差异以及排放因子和活动数据之间的差异导致了经过审查的EI研究之间的显着偏差。此外,结果表明,SNA研究的结果高度依赖于分类类型,模型能力和EI假设以及污染物扩散模型的数据输入。因此,综合源分配,其中这三种方法相互补充的结果是必要的,以在特大城市一致的空气污染管理。
    在线版本包含补充材料,可在10.1007/s40201-023-00855-0获得。
    Rapid urbanization and consuming lifestyles have intensified air pollution in urban areas. Air pollution in megacities has imposed severe environmental damages to human health. Proper management of the issue necessitates identification of the share of emission sources. Therefore, numerous research works have studied the apportionment of the total emissions and observed concentrations among different emissions sources. In this research, a comprehensive review is conducted to compare the source apportioning results for ambient air PM2.5 in the megacity of Tehran, the capital of Iran. One hundred seventy-seven pieces of scientific literatures, published between 2005 and 2021, were reviewed. The reviewed research are categorized according to the source apportioning methods: emission inventory (EI), source apportionment (SA), and sensitivity analysis of the concentration to the emission sources (SNA). The possible reasons for inconsistency among the results are discussed according to the scope of the studies and the implemented methods. Although 85% of the reviewed original estimates identify that mobile sources contribute to more thant 60% of Tehran air pollution, the distribution of vehicle types and modes are clearly inconsistent among the EI studies. Our review suggests that consistent results in the SA studies in different locations in central Tehran may indicate the reliability of this method for the identification of the type and share of the emission sources. In contrast, differences among the geographical and sectoral coverage of the EI studies and the disparities among the emission factors and activity data have caused significant deviations among the reviewed EI studies. Also, it is shown that the results of the SNA studies are highly dependent on the categorization type, model capabilities and EI presumptions and data input to the pollutant dispersion modelings. As a result, integrated source apportioning in which the three methods complement each other\'s results is necessary for consistent air pollution management in megacities.
    UNASSIGNED: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40201-023-00855-0.
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  • 文章类型: Systematic Review
    背景:未能适当考虑未测量的混杂因素可能会导致错误的结论。定量偏倚分析(QBA)可用于量化未测量混杂因素的潜在影响或需要多少未测量混杂因素来改变研究结论。目前,QBA方法没有常规实施,部分原因是缺乏关于可访问软件的知识。此外,QBA方法的比较集中在具有二元结果的分析上。
    方法:我们对2011年至2021年之间发布的QBA软件的最新进展进行了系统回顾。我们的纳入标准是不需要调整的软件(即,代码更改)在申请之前,在2022年仍然可用,并附有文件。确定了每个软件工具的关键属性。我们提供了适用于线性回归分析的程序的详细描述,使用两个数据示例说明他们的应用,并提供代码以帮助研究人员将来使用这些程序。
    结果:我们的审查确定了2016年后创建的21个项目。所有这些都是具有[公式:见文本]的确定性QBA的实现,可在免费软件R中获得。当感兴趣的分析是二元回归时,有适用的程序,连续或生存结果,以及匹配和调解分析。我们确定了五个实施不同QBA的项目,以获得连续的结果:治疗,卡萨森斯,sensemaker,EValue,和konfound。当应用于我们的一个说明性例子时,causalsens错误地表明了对未测量的混杂因素的敏感性,而其他四个程序表明了稳健性。sensemakr执行最详细的QBA,并包括针对多个未测量混杂因素的基准测试功能。
    结论:软件现在可用于实施一系列不同分析的QBA。然而,方法的多样性,即使是同样的兴趣分析,对它们的广泛吸收提出了挑战。提供详细的QBA指南将是非常有益的。
    Failure to appropriately account for unmeasured confounding may lead to erroneous conclusions. Quantitative bias analysis (QBA) can be used to quantify the potential impact of unmeasured confounding or how much unmeasured confounding would be needed to change a study\'s conclusions. Currently, QBA methods are not routinely implemented, partly due to a lack of knowledge about accessible software. Also, comparisons of QBA methods have focused on analyses with a binary outcome.
    We conducted a systematic review of the latest developments in QBA software published between 2011 and 2021. Our inclusion criteria were software that did not require adaption (i.e., code changes) before application, was still available in 2022, and accompanied by documentation. Key properties of each software tool were identified. We provide a detailed description of programs applicable for a linear regression analysis, illustrate their application using two data examples and provide code to assist researchers in future use of these programs.
    Our review identified 21 programs with [Formula: see text] created post 2016. All are implementations of a deterministic QBA with [Formula: see text] available in the free software R. There are programs applicable when the analysis of interest is a regression of binary, continuous or survival outcomes, and for matched and mediation analyses. We identified five programs implementing differing QBAs for a continuous outcome: treatSens, causalsens, sensemakr, EValue, and konfound. When applied to one of our illustrative examples, causalsens incorrectly indicated sensitivity to unmeasured confounding whereas the other four programs indicated robustness. sensemakr performs the most detailed QBA and includes a benchmarking feature for multiple unmeasured confounders.
    Software is now available to implement a QBA for a range of different analyses. However, the diversity of methods, even for the same analysis of interest, presents challenges to their widespread uptake. Provision of detailed QBA guidelines would be highly beneficial.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    基于树的机器学习方法在统计和数据科学领域获得了广泛的关注。与传统分析方法相比,它们已被证明可以为各种研究问题提供更好的解决方案。为了鼓励在健康研究中采用基于树的方法,我们回顾了三种关键的基于树的机器学习方法的方法论基础:随机森林,极值梯度提升和贝叶斯加性回归树。我们进一步进行了一系列案例研究,以说明如何正确使用这些方法来解决四个领域的重要健康研究问题:变量选择,因果效应的估计,倾向得分加权和缺失数据。我们提出,使用集成树方法解决这些研究问题的中心思想是通过灵活的建模进行准确的预测。我们应用集成树方法来选择可切除肿瘤的早期肺癌患者术后呼吸系统并发症的重要预测因子。然后,我们演示了如何使用这些方法来估计流行的手术方法对肺癌患者术后呼吸系统并发症的因果影响。使用相同的数据,我们进一步实施了准确估计逆概率权重的方法,用于对手术入路的比较效果进行倾向评分分析.最后,我们演示了如何使用随机森林来估算缺失数据,使用全国妇女健康研究数据集。最后,基于树的方法是一种灵活的工具,应正确用于健康调查。
    Tree-based machine learning methods have gained traction in the statistical and data science fields. They have been shown to provide better solutions to various research questions than traditional analysis approaches. To encourage the uptake of tree-based methods in health research, we review the methodological fundamentals of three key tree-based machine learning methods: random forests, extreme gradient boosting and Bayesian additive regression trees. We further conduct a series of case studies to illustrate how these methods can be properly used to solve important health research problems in four domains: variable selection, estimation of causal effects, propensity score weighting and missing data. We exposit that the central idea of using ensemble tree methods for these research questions is accurate prediction via flexible modeling. We applied ensemble trees methods to select important predictors for the presence of postoperative respiratory complication among early stage lung cancer patients with resectable tumors. We then demonstrated how to use these methods to estimate the causal effects of popular surgical approaches on postoperative respiratory complications among lung cancer patients. Using the same data, we further implemented the methods to accurately estimate the inverse probability weights for a propensity score analysis of the comparative effectiveness of the surgical approaches. Finally, we demonstrated how random forests can be used to impute missing data using the Study of Women\'s Health Across the Nation data set. To conclude, the tree-based methods are a flexible tool and should be properly used for health investigations.
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  • 文章类型: Systematic Review
    UASSIGNED:早期经济评估(EEE)在医疗技术发展中的作用已得到越来越多的认可;但是,在外科技术中使用EEE的数据很少。这篇综述的目的是探讨EEE在外科技术发展中的应用,重点是如何解决不确定性。
    未经评估:进行了系统评估,并选择采用任何形式的手术技术EEE的原始文章进行审查,分析中包括10项研究。这些研究表明,管理参数不确定性的方法存在重大差异,特别是关于使用的分析类型以及在敏感性分析中包含有效性参数。得出的结论似乎没有考虑模型的不确定性。
    UASSIGNED:在以前的手术技术EEE中处理参数不确定性的方法受到限制,一些研究未能解决参数不确定性。此外,EEE似乎没有遵循关于使用敏感性分析的既定准则。重要的是,手术技术的EEE解决参数不确定性,以便从分析中得出更可靠的结论,并允许投资者在做出投资决策时考虑这种不确定性。
    UNASSIGNED: The role of early economic evaluation (EEE) in the development of medical technology has been increasingly recognized; however, data on the use of EEE in surgical technology are sparse. The objective of this review was to explore the use of EEE in the development of surgical technologies, with emphasis on how uncertainty has been addressed.
    UNASSIGNED: A systematic review was conducted, and original articles employing any form of EEE of surgical technology were selected for review, with 10 studies included in the analysis. These studies demonstrated significant variation in the approach to managing parameter uncertainty, specifically regarding the type of analysis used and the inclusion of effectiveness parameters in sensitivity analysis. The conclusions drawn did not appear to factor in uncertainty in the models.
    UNASSIGNED: Approaches to handling parameter uncertainty in previous EEEs of surgical technology have been limited, with some studies failing to address parameter uncertainty. In addition, EEEs do not appear to follow established guidelines with respect to the use of sensitivity analyses. It is important that EEEs of surgical technology address parameter uncertainty in order to draw more robust conclusions from the analysis and allow investors to consider this uncertainty when making investment decisions.
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