背景:大多数研究推断从1950年代到1990年代,肱骨近端骨折(PHF)的发生率在增加。最近的时间趋势不太清楚。
目标:我们的主要目标是确定马尔默年龄和性别调整后的PHF成人发病率的时间趋势,瑞典,从1944年到2020年。我们的次要目标是根据年龄描述发病率的变化,每月分布,并将最近几十年的数据与更早的数据进行比较。
方法:马尔默有一家急诊医院治疗急性骨折。我们通过回顾1944年至2020年17个样本年的相关放射学检查,确定了成人患者(≥18岁)的PHF。我们使用jointpoint分析来估计时间趋势。
结果:我们在研究期间确定了3031个PHF(3231161人年),73%的妇女平均年龄为69岁(男性平均年龄为59岁)。Joinpoint分析表明,从1944年(52/100000人年)到1977年(120/100000),年龄和性别调整后的PHF发病率增加,此后下降到2020年(85/100000)。冬季有更多骨折的季节性变化,在早期但不是最近几十年。
结论:马尔默的年龄和性别调整后的PHF发病率增加,瑞典,从1940年代到1977年,此后一直下降到2020年。在较早的冬季而不是最近的几十年中,发现了更多的骨折。
BACKGROUND: Most studies infer increasing incidence of proximal humeral fractures (PHF) from the 1950´s until the 1990´s. Recent time trends are less clear.
OBJECTIVE: Our primary objective was to identify time trends in the age- and sex-adjusted adult incidence of PHF in Malmö, Sweden, from year 1944 until 2020. Our secondary objectives were to describe the variation in incidence according to age, the monthly distribution, and to compare data from the two most recent decades with earlier.
METHODS: Malmö has one emergency hospital where acute fractures are treated. We identified PHF in adult patients (≥ 18 years) by reviewing relevant radiology examinations during 17 sample years from year 1944 to 2020. We used jointpoint analyses to estimate time trends.
RESULTS: We identified 3 031 PHF during the study period (3 231 161 person years), 73% were sustained by women with mean age of 69 years (mean age in men 59). Joinpoint analyses indicated an increase in the age- and sex-adjusted incidence of PHF from year 1944 (52 per 100 000 person years) until 1977 (120 per 100 000) and thereafter a decrease until 2020 (85 per 100 000). A seasonal variation with more fractures during winter months, was apparent in earlier but not recent decades.
CONCLUSIONS: The age- and sex-adjusted incidence of PHF increased in Malmö, Sweden, from the 1940´s until year 1977 and thereafter decreased until 2020. More fractures were seen during winter months in earlier but not recent decades.