The number of non-melanoma skin cancers (NMSC) removed from Australians is increasing every year. The number of deaths from NMSC is increasing but so is the population. However, the population has greatly changed with many dark-skinned people migrating to Australia. These people are at low risk for skin cancer even if they live all their lives in Australia. The susceptible population is the rest of the population. The death rate from NMSC for the entire population and susceptible populations since 1971 is examined in this article.
METHODS: Data on the Australian population were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Every five years a census is held in Australia and detailed information of the population is provided. The ABS also provided yearly data on the causes of death in Australia.
RESULTS: The total population increased from 12,755,638 in 1971 to 25,738,140 in 2021. However, the susceptible population increased by far less, from 12,493,780 to 19,773,783. The number of deaths from NMSC increased from 143 to 765. The crude death rate for the susceptible population increased from 1.1 per 100,000 to 3.9 per 100,000. The crude death rate in the susceptible population aged 65 or more increased from 9.4 to 18.2 per 100,000.
CONCLUSIONS: Deaths from NMSC are increasing despite public health campaigns to prevent skin cancer. According to current trends, NMSC will cause more deaths than melanoma in Australia.

Although ecological services have been improved in karst desertification control areas, it is still unclear how population shrinkage affects ecosystem service supply capability through ecological assets. In this study, Theil-Sen median, regression analysis, and variance partitioning were applied to explore the linkages of population change (observed data and shared socioeconomic pathways 1-representative concentration pathways 2.6), ecological asset composition (land use), quality (Normalized difference vegetation index [NDVI] and tree height), and ecosystem services in different periods (population growth and decline periods). The results showed that the population change during the growth period (2000-2038) was dominated by migration patterns. In degraded ecoregions (karst desertification) dominated by population out-migration, the net expansion of forest was 15.88 % during 2000-2020, NDVI and tree height increased by 0.57 % and 54.96 %, and ecosystem service supply capability increased by 2.68 %. In contrast, in non-degraded ecoregions (non-karst and karst non-desertification) with population in-migration, change rates of forest (-5.40 % and - 23.68 %), NDVI (0.49 % and 0.53 %), tree height (-8.35 % and - 31.25 %), and ecosystem service supply capability (2.04 % and 2.18 %) were apparently lower than degraded ecoregions. During the population decline period (2039-2100), although the migration pattern between two regions during the growth period was replaced by a population drop within a single region, the positive correlation between population shrinkage with ecological assets and service supply capability was still followed. Overall, the study found that both ways of population shrinkage that involve out-migration and decline can alleviate the land pressure of degraded ecoregions, which enhances ecosystem service supply capability by regulating ecological assets.

The practice of space-for-time substitution assumes that the responses of species or communities to land-use change over space represents how they will respond to that same change over time. Space-for-time substitution is commonly used in both ecology and conservation, but whether the assumption produces reliable insights remains inconclusive. Here, we tested space-for-time substitution using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and Global Forest Change (GFC) to compare the effects of landscape-scale forest cover on bird richness and abundance over time and space, for 25 space-time comparisons. Each comparison consisted of a landscape that experienced at least 20% forest loss over 19 years (temporal site) and a set of 15-19 landscapes (spatial sites) that represented the same forest cover gradient over space in 2019 as experienced over time in their corresponding temporal site. Across the 25 comparisons, the observed responses of forest and open-habitat birds to forest cover over time generally aligned with their responses to forest cover over space, but with comparatively higher variability in the magnitude and direction of effect across the 25 temporal slopes than across the 25 spatial slopes. On average, the mean differences between the spatial and temporal slopes across the 25 space-time comparisons frequently overlapped with zero, suggesting that the spatial slopes are generally informative of the temporal slopes. However, we observed high variability around these mean differences, indicating that a single spatial slope is not strongly predictive of its corresponding temporal slope. We suggest that our results may be explained by annual variability in other relevant environmental factors that combine to produce complex effects on population abundances over time that are not easily captured by snapshots in space. While not being a 1:1 proxy, measuring bird responses to changes in habitat amount in space provides an idea on how birds might be expected to eventually equilibrate to similar changes in habitat amount over time. Further, analyses such as this could be potentially used to screen for cases of regional space-time mismatches where population-limiting factors other than habitat could be playing a more important role in the population trends observed there.

Agriculture accounts for 61 % of fresh water consumption in China. Although population and diet have a significant impact on water consumption, little is known about the reasons for and extent of their influence. Changes in the blue and green water footprint of 20 agricultural sectors in 31 Chinese provinces were estimated in 5 scenarios by applying the environmentally expanded multi-regional input-output model. The water footprint network is strongly interconnected, with over 50 % of the provinces characterized as net importers of the blue water footprint, 70 % of the total blue and green water footprint imports in developed provinces, and 65 % of the total blue and green water footprint exports in developing provinces, with the flow distribution driven and dominated by economically developed provinces. The findings also highlighted that the impact of population change on the water footprint is insignificant, contributing 0.51 % and 5.78 % to the reduction of the water footprint in 2030 and 2050, respectively. The impact of simultaneous changes in the population and dietary structure on the water footprint was higher than population changes and lower than dietary structure changes. The main force driving changes in the water footprint was changes in the dietary structure, which resulted in a two-fold effect on the water footprint. First, it has increased the blue and green water footprint by 33 % and 12 %, respectively, thus aggravating the coercive impact on water resources on the production side. Second, it has led to a change in the main contributing sectors for the blue and green water footprint from cereals to fruits, vegetables, and potatoes. Therefore, when the population is changing and optimizing its dietary structures, a greater focus must be placed on threats and pressures to water resources. This will result in better scientific management and more efficient use of water resources.

BACKGROUND: The effects of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) on acute myocardial infarction (AMI) have been widely recognized. However, no studies have comprehensively evaluated future PM2.5-attributed AMI burdens under different climate mitigation and population change scenarios. We aimed to quantify the PM2.5-AMI association and estimate the future change in PM2.5-attributed AMI incident cases under six integrated scenarios in 2030 and 2060 in Shandong Province, China.
METHODS: Daily AMI incident cases and air pollutant data were collected from 136 districts/counties in Shandong Province from 2017 - 2019. A two-stage analysis with a distributed lag nonlinear model was conducted to quantify the baseline PM2.5-AMI association. The future change in PM2.5-attributed AMI incident cases was estimated by combining the fitted PM2.5-AMI association with the projected daily PM2.5 concentrations under six integrated scenarios. We further analyzed the factors driving changes in PM2.5-related AMI incidence using a decomposition method.
RESULTS: Each 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 exposure at lag05 was related to an excess risk of 1.3 % (95 % confidence intervals: 0.9 %, 1.7 %) for AMI incidence from 2017 - 2019 in Shandong Province. The estimated total PM2.5-attributed AMI incident cases would increase by 10.9-125.9 % and 6.4-244.6 % under Scenarios 1 - 3 in 2030 and 2060, whereas they would decrease by 0.9-5.2 % and 33.0-46.2 % under Scenarios 5 - 6 in 2030 and 2060, respectively. Furthermore, the percentage increases in PM2.5-attributed female cases (2030: -0.3 % to 135.1 %; 2060: -33.2 % to 321.5 %) and aging cases (2030: 15.2-171.8 %; 2060: -21.5 % to 394.2 %) would wholly exceed those in male cases (2030: -1.8 % to 133.2 %; 2060: -41.1 % to 264.3 %) and non-aging cases (2030: -41.0 % to 45.7 %; 2060: -89.5 % to -17.0 %) under six scenarios in 2030 and 2060. Population aging is the main driver of increased PM2.5-related AMI incidence under Scenarios 1 - 3 in 2030 and 2060, while improved air quality can offset these negative effects of population aging under the implementation of the carbon neutrality and 1.5 °C targets.
CONCLUSIONS: The combination of ambitious climate policies (i.e., 1.5 °C warming limits and carbon neutrality targets) with stringent clean air policies is necessary to reduce the health impacts of air pollution in Shandong Province, China, regardless of population aging.

In the process of China\'s modernization, promoting the sustainable development of resource-based cities is a major strategic issue and it has now also become a worldwide issue. This study uses the coupling model to validate the coupling relationship between China\'s land-use net carbon flux and economic growth and population change during 2009-2017. The study for the first time draws the conclusion that the coupling degree among the three is getting lower, the correlation is gradually weaker, and the independent relationship is becoming more and more prominent. Utilizing the Tapio decoupling model, we obtained the weak decoupling conclusion that the economic growth rate is higher than the growth rate of the land-use net carbon flux, while negative decoupling of sprawl is where the rate of population growth is less than the rate of net land-use carbon flux growth.

Although the global population continues to increase, the total fertility rate in many high-income countries (HICs) is below replacement, a trend apparent over several decades. The timing and pace of this change will shape the age distribution in these countries, leading to an increasing proportion of older people. The well-established links of the \"demographic transition\" between improving female education and improved access to contraception continue to drive down the fertility rates in low-/middle-income countries. However, changes in the age distribution will not be as marked as in HICs in the coming decades. These relationships may now be changing in some HICs with greater prosperity at both the personal (in some sectors of society) and national levels, linked to an increase in the total fertility rates despite continuing trends toward older age at first birth. Key drivers in these countries include improved provision of free/low-cost childcare, paid parental leave, and higher paternal contributions to childcare. However, there is also an increase in the number of women who do not have children or who may be unable to complete their family plans. Coronavirus disease 2019 and environmental factors, including the increasing prevalence of obesity, add to pressures on the fertility rates. Variable knowledge of the realities of female reproductive aging, particularly by men, is also a contributing factor, and this complex mix has fueled the increase in the number of elective egg freezing.

Measures of small area deprivation have played a major role in targeting resources in the UK. The English Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) is the official measure of small area deprivation in England and it has been used to allocate billions of pounds of government money. The success of schemes to reduce deprivation can only be assessed by measuring changes in deprivation over time. In addition, the effect of such schemes is likely to be a partly a function of the deprivation history of an area. More generally, the trajectory of deprivation, and not just its current state, is important in understanding the likely impacts of deprivation on those who live in deprived areas. This paper combines the strengths of the IMD as a broad-ranging measure based on administrative data (here, using the 2004, 2007, 2010, 2015 and 2019 indices) and the Townsend score derived from Census data for a much longer time period (1971 to 2011). In addition, benefit claimant count data are used as a proxy for unemployment following the national Covid-19 lockdowns. The paper identifies some major trends in small area deprivation and unemployment over the period 1971 to 2020 and it highlights some key similarities and differences between the Townsend score and the IMD and makes links to changes in unemployment in 2020. Areas with very long term deprivation are identified and the strong association between job losses following Covid-19 lockdown and deprivation histories is demonstrated. The analyses are used to argue that deprivation trajectories should be considered if effective strategies for reducing spatial inequalities are to be developed.

While seabirds are well-known for making a living under some of the harshest conditions on the planet, their capacity to buffer against unfavourable conditions can be stretched in response to ecosystem change. During population increases, overlap between conspecifics can limit population growth through competition for breeding or feeding resources. What is less well understood is the role that intrinsic processes play during periods of population decline or under a changing environment. We interrogate key demographic parameters and their biophysical drivers to understand the role of intrinsic and extrinsic drivers during a recent near halving of a large Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) metapopulation. The loss of 154,000 breeding birds along the 100-km East Antarctic coastline centred around 63°E over the last decade diverges from a sustained increase over preceding decades and is contrary to recent models that predict a continued increase. The decline was initially triggered by changed environmental conditions: more extensive near-shore sea ice caused a reduction in breeding success. The evidence suggests this decline was exacerbated by feedback processes driving an inverse density-dependent decrease in fledgling survival in response to smaller cohort size. It appears that the old adage of safety in numbers may shape the fledgling penguins\' chances of survival and, if compromised over multiple years, could exacerbate difficulties during population decline or if feedback processes arise. The likely interplay between demographic parameters meant that conditions were more unfavourable and negative effects more rapid than would be expected if demographic processes acted in isolation or independently. Failure to capture both intrinsic and extrinsic drivers in predictive population models may mean that the real impacts of climate change on species\' populations are more severe than projections would lead us to believe. These results improve our understanding of population regulation during periods of rapid decline for long-lived marine species.

A new dataset of population projections for local areas of Australia is described. The areas comprise SA3 areas of the Australian Statistical Geography Standard, which mostly range in population between 30,000 and 130,000. The projections are launched from the 2020 Estimated Resident Populations published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and extend out to 2035. They are available by sex and five year age group up to 80-84 with 85+ as the final age group and in five year projection intervals. The projections were prepared using the synthetic migration cohort-component model, a new model for population projections which requires much less input data than conventional projection models, and therefore involves much lower costs and production time. Despite this, a recent evaluation demonstrated respectable forecast accuracy, and greater accuracy than equivalent simple projection models producing populations by age and sex. The age-sex projections are constrained to independent age-sex national projections and local area projections of total populations. The dataset consists of local area projections for the whole of the country which is consistent in methods, input data, and projection outputs due to the use of one model. This is rare in Australia because local area projections are most commonly prepared by individual State/Territory Governments using different methods, data sources, projection assumptions (which can be influenced by State/Territory population policies), and time periods. These nationally consistent projection data should be useful for a wide range of local area planning, policy, and research purposes, such as childcare demand, school enrolments, power and water usage, aged care provision, store and business site selection, living arrangements and household projections, labour force projections, and transport modelling.