UNASSIGNED: The equity of public resources triggered by city shrinkage is a global challenge. Significantly, the impact of city shrinkage on the allocation of health service resources needs to be better understood. This study explores the impact of population change on government investment and health service delivery in shrinking cities.
UNASSIGNED: Using data from China\'s Urban Statistical Yearbook (2010-2020), we employ regression discontinuity (RD) and fixed-effect models to examine the causal relationship between city shrinkage and health service provision.
UNASSIGNED: Shrinking cities show significant disparities in health resources, particularly in bed numbers (-1,167.58, p < 0.05) and doctor availability (-538.54, p < 0.05). Economic development (p < 0.01) and financial autonomy (p < 0.01) influence hospital bed distribution. Investments in public services (primary schools and teachers, p < 0.01) affect health resource delivery. Robustness tests support our results.
UNASSIGNED: This study reveals how city shrinkage disrupts health service provision and equity, establishing a causal relationship between city shrinkage/expansion and health resource allocation, emphasizing the imbalance caused by urban population changes. City expansion intensifies competition for health resources, while shrinking cities struggle to provide adequate resources due to government reluctance. Policymakers should adapt health resource allocation strategies to meet patient demands in changing urban landscapes.

Although ecological services have been improved in karst desertification control areas, it is still unclear how population shrinkage affects ecosystem service supply capability through ecological assets. In this study, Theil-Sen median, regression analysis, and variance partitioning were applied to explore the linkages of population change (observed data and shared socioeconomic pathways 1-representative concentration pathways 2.6), ecological asset composition (land use), quality (Normalized difference vegetation index [NDVI] and tree height), and ecosystem services in different periods (population growth and decline periods). The results showed that the population change during the growth period (2000-2038) was dominated by migration patterns. In degraded ecoregions (karst desertification) dominated by population out-migration, the net expansion of forest was 15.88 % during 2000-2020, NDVI and tree height increased by 0.57 % and 54.96 %, and ecosystem service supply capability increased by 2.68 %. In contrast, in non-degraded ecoregions (non-karst and karst non-desertification) with population in-migration, change rates of forest (-5.40 % and - 23.68 %), NDVI (0.49 % and 0.53 %), tree height (-8.35 % and - 31.25 %), and ecosystem service supply capability (2.04 % and 2.18 %) were apparently lower than degraded ecoregions. During the population decline period (2039-2100), although the migration pattern between two regions during the growth period was replaced by a population drop within a single region, the positive correlation between population shrinkage with ecological assets and service supply capability was still followed. Overall, the study found that both ways of population shrinkage that involve out-migration and decline can alleviate the land pressure of degraded ecoregions, which enhances ecosystem service supply capability by regulating ecological assets.

Agriculture accounts for 61 % of fresh water consumption in China. Although population and diet have a significant impact on water consumption, little is known about the reasons for and extent of their influence. Changes in the blue and green water footprint of 20 agricultural sectors in 31 Chinese provinces were estimated in 5 scenarios by applying the environmentally expanded multi-regional input-output model. The water footprint network is strongly interconnected, with over 50 % of the provinces characterized as net importers of the blue water footprint, 70 % of the total blue and green water footprint imports in developed provinces, and 65 % of the total blue and green water footprint exports in developing provinces, with the flow distribution driven and dominated by economically developed provinces. The findings also highlighted that the impact of population change on the water footprint is insignificant, contributing 0.51 % and 5.78 % to the reduction of the water footprint in 2030 and 2050, respectively. The impact of simultaneous changes in the population and dietary structure on the water footprint was higher than population changes and lower than dietary structure changes. The main force driving changes in the water footprint was changes in the dietary structure, which resulted in a two-fold effect on the water footprint. First, it has increased the blue and green water footprint by 33 % and 12 %, respectively, thus aggravating the coercive impact on water resources on the production side. Second, it has led to a change in the main contributing sectors for the blue and green water footprint from cereals to fruits, vegetables, and potatoes. Therefore, when the population is changing and optimizing its dietary structures, a greater focus must be placed on threats and pressures to water resources. This will result in better scientific management and more efficient use of water resources.

BACKGROUND: The effects of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) on acute myocardial infarction (AMI) have been widely recognized. However, no studies have comprehensively evaluated future PM2.5-attributed AMI burdens under different climate mitigation and population change scenarios. We aimed to quantify the PM2.5-AMI association and estimate the future change in PM2.5-attributed AMI incident cases under six integrated scenarios in 2030 and 2060 in Shandong Province, China.
METHODS: Daily AMI incident cases and air pollutant data were collected from 136 districts/counties in Shandong Province from 2017 - 2019. A two-stage analysis with a distributed lag nonlinear model was conducted to quantify the baseline PM2.5-AMI association. The future change in PM2.5-attributed AMI incident cases was estimated by combining the fitted PM2.5-AMI association with the projected daily PM2.5 concentrations under six integrated scenarios. We further analyzed the factors driving changes in PM2.5-related AMI incidence using a decomposition method.
RESULTS: Each 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 exposure at lag05 was related to an excess risk of 1.3 % (95 % confidence intervals: 0.9 %, 1.7 %) for AMI incidence from 2017 - 2019 in Shandong Province. The estimated total PM2.5-attributed AMI incident cases would increase by 10.9-125.9 % and 6.4-244.6 % under Scenarios 1 - 3 in 2030 and 2060, whereas they would decrease by 0.9-5.2 % and 33.0-46.2 % under Scenarios 5 - 6 in 2030 and 2060, respectively. Furthermore, the percentage increases in PM2.5-attributed female cases (2030: -0.3 % to 135.1 %; 2060: -33.2 % to 321.5 %) and aging cases (2030: 15.2-171.8 %; 2060: -21.5 % to 394.2 %) would wholly exceed those in male cases (2030: -1.8 % to 133.2 %; 2060: -41.1 % to 264.3 %) and non-aging cases (2030: -41.0 % to 45.7 %; 2060: -89.5 % to -17.0 %) under six scenarios in 2030 and 2060. Population aging is the main driver of increased PM2.5-related AMI incidence under Scenarios 1 - 3 in 2030 and 2060, while improved air quality can offset these negative effects of population aging under the implementation of the carbon neutrality and 1.5 °C targets.
CONCLUSIONS: The combination of ambitious climate policies (i.e., 1.5 °C warming limits and carbon neutrality targets) with stringent clean air policies is necessary to reduce the health impacts of air pollution in Shandong Province, China, regardless of population aging.

In the process of China\'s modernization, promoting the sustainable development of resource-based cities is a major strategic issue and it has now also become a worldwide issue. This study uses the coupling model to validate the coupling relationship between China\'s land-use net carbon flux and economic growth and population change during 2009-2017. The study for the first time draws the conclusion that the coupling degree among the three is getting lower, the correlation is gradually weaker, and the independent relationship is becoming more and more prominent. Utilizing the Tapio decoupling model, we obtained the weak decoupling conclusion that the economic growth rate is higher than the growth rate of the land-use net carbon flux, while negative decoupling of sprawl is where the rate of population growth is less than the rate of net land-use carbon flux growth.

Attributing the changes in the population exposure to global compound hot extremes, which combine daytime-nighttime hot extremes with more severe impacts, is essential for climate change adaptation. Based on daily temperature data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) and population data, we estimate the changes in population exposure for two future periods under three scenarios of emission and socio-economic development at global and continental scales, and assess the contributions from climate and population changes. We find that the spatial patterns of exposure to compound hot extremes are similar for different periods and scenarios, and regions with high exposure are mainly located over East Asia, South Asia, Europe, and parts of eastern USA and Africa. The exposure shows an increase from baseline (1980-2014) to mid- and late 21st century periods (2021-2055 and 2056-2090) in most regions worldwide. Under the business-as-usual scenario (SSP2-4.5), the global exposure increases by ~19-fold during the late 21st century, and Africa shows the largest increase while Europe shows the smallest. Early (SSP1-2.6) and no (SSP5-8.5) actions of mitigation would relieve and aggravate the increase rate, respectively. For about 78%-87% of the global land areas, the changes in exposure are mainly caused by climate change (accounting for >69%), followed by the interaction effect (accounting for ~29%) that refers to synergistic changes in climate and population. In parts of mid- to high-latitude regions, the exposure is smaller than expected due to opposite effects of climate change and population change.

The Interstate Highway System (IHS) used to be a symbol of American growth and its economic machine, but the IHS has not been expanded much since its inception. Recently there are both executive and legislative desires to restore and upgrade the IHS to its role as a premier system that can meet the growing and changing demands of the twenty-first century. Demographic forecasting is a precursor to rational transportation planning and decision activities. This paper provides population projections into 2060 at the county level for the entire US using cohort-component methods. We found that the US is projected to experience population growth across all age groups over the next 50 years. The projected growth, however, varies across the entire US. Population growth areas are in the west/south/east border states and the Atlanta-NC-Nashville triangle. Population decline areas include many counties from the northeast corner to the Appalachian region, counties bordering the five Great Lakes, counties along the Mississippi River, the Deep South states, and Alaska. We also identified the counties that may need additional or less transport capacity based on projected population change and proximities to IHS. We further identified the counties with high population density but without the IHS network that are projected to experience rapid population growth. IHS demands will be affected by the aging population, the young population, baby boomers, millennials, immigrants, telecommuting, and autonomous vehicles. This study provides the necessary demographic forecasting for decision and policy makers in better deciding whether and where to expand or invest in the IHS when the resources become available.

The mirid bugs are one of the most important piercing-sucking insect pests in tea plantations, which severely reduce the quality and economic benefits of tea. In this study, the mirid bug species in the three tea-producing areas in Shandong Province of China were investigated. The distribution and occurrence of dominant species of mirid bugs on four weed host plants and tea plants Camellia sinensis (L.) O. Kuntze (Theaceae) were also studied in the tea agro-ecosystems. The results showed that Apolygus lucorum (Meyer-Dür) (Hemiptera: Miridae) was the dominant mirid bug species in the tea growing areas. Apolygus lucorum densities on Humulus scandens (Lour.) (Moraceae) and Artemisia lavandulaefolia DC. (Asteraceae) were relatively higher than those on Conyza canadensis (Linn) Cronq (Asteraceae), Artemisia annua Linn (Asteraceae), and C. sinensis. Host plant switching of A. lucorum in the tea agro-ecosystem was: A. lucorum scattered on and seriously infested tea plants in June and July; A. lucorum largely migrated to and gathered on H. scandens, A. lavandulaefolia, C. canadensis, and A. annua at the flowering stage, and population densities of A. lucorum on these flowering hosts peaked in late September; in October, A. lucorum gradually moved back to flowering tea plants. These results could provide a reference for selecting host plants, such as Artemisia plants, as trap plants for sustainable control of mirid bugs in tea plantations.

Fine particulate (PM2.5) pollution, along with the rapid urbanization process, has been given much attention in China during the recent decades. However, the relationships between urban population dynamics and PM2.5 changes have not been well examined. We therefore analyzed their relationship using full-coverage remotely sensed PM2.5 and population density data. The results showed that 1) both population density and PM2.5 concentration increased rapidly from 2000 to 2014, especially in East and Central China, as well as China\'s high population density urban areas and the major cities; 2) A total of 723 million people was exposed to PM2.5 pollution in 2014, an increase of 105 million from 2000; 3) most of the urban areas exhibited population density increase/decrease with PM2.5 concentration increase, while a total of 42% of China\'s territory, mainly in East and Central China\'s rural areas were found to have population decrease but PM2.5 concentration increase. We hope the results in this work can serve as an example to other countries in designing their urbanization strategy by paying more attention to environmental degeneration accompanying rapid development.
UNASSIGNED: Most of urban areas were observed to have population density increase/decrease along with PM2.5 concentration increase.