Abstract：
Although ecological services have been improved in karst desertification control areas, it is still unclear how population shrinkage affects ecosystem service supply capability through ecological assets. In this study, Theil-Sen median, regression analysis, and variance partitioning were applied to explore the linkages of population change (observed data and shared socioeconomic pathways 1-representative concentration pathways 2.6), ecological asset composition (land use), quality (Normalized difference vegetation index [NDVI] and tree height), and ecosystem services in different periods (population growth and decline periods). The results showed that the population change during the growth period (2000-2038) was dominated by migration patterns. In degraded ecoregions (karst desertification) dominated by population out-migration, the net expansion of forest was 15.88 % during 2000-2020, NDVI and tree height increased by 0.57 % and 54.96 %, and ecosystem service supply capability increased by 2.68 %. In contrast, in non-degraded ecoregions (non-karst and karst non-desertification) with population in-migration, change rates of forest (-5.40 % and - 23.68 %), NDVI (0.49 % and 0.53 %), tree height (-8.35 % and - 31.25 %), and ecosystem service supply capability (2.04 % and 2.18 %) were apparently lower than degraded ecoregions. During the population decline period (2039-2100), although the migration pattern between two regions during the growth period was replaced by a population drop within a single region, the positive correlation between population shrinkage with ecological assets and service supply capability was still followed. Overall, the study found that both ways of population shrinkage that involve out-migration and decline can alleviate the land pressure of degraded ecoregions, which enhances ecosystem service supply capability by regulating ecological assets.
摘要：
虽然喀斯特荒漠化治理地区的生态服务得到了改善,目前尚不清楚人口减少如何通过生态资产影响生态系统服务供给能力。在这项研究中,泰尔-森中位数,回归分析，和方差划分被应用于探索人口变化的联系(观察到的数据和共享的社会经济途径1-代表性的集中途径2.6)，生态资产构成(土地利用)，质量(归一化植被指数[NDVI]和树高)，和生态系统服务在不同时期(人口增长和衰退期)。结果表明，生长期（2000-2038）的种群变化以迁移模式为主。在以人口向外迁移为主的退化生态区（喀斯特荒漠化）中，2000-2020年，森林净扩张15.88%，NDVI和树高分别增长0.57%和54.96%，生态系统服务供给能力提高2.68%。相比之下,在人口迁移的非退化生态区（非喀斯特和喀斯特非荒漠化）中，森林变化率(-5.40%和-23.68%)，NDVI（0.49%和0.53%），树高（-8.35%和-31.25%），生态系统服务供给能力(2.04%和2.18%)明显低于退化生态区。在人口下降期间（2039-2100），尽管在生长期两个地区之间的迁移模式被单个地区内的人口下降所取代，人口减少与生态资产和服务供给能力之间仍然存在正相关关系。总的来说,研究发现，涉及向外迁移和下降的人口减少两种方式都可以减轻退化生态区的土地压力，通过调节生态资产来增强生态系统服务供给能力。
