delphi

德尔福
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目标:由于冲突,文献中的数据不足或有争议,关于腹主动脉瘤(AAAs)患者管理的几个问题仍未解决。这个国际的目标,基于专家的Delphi共识文件旨在就这些有争议的主题为临床医生提供一些指导。
    方法:由44名专家就6个关于AAA管理的预先指定主题编写了三轮德尔菲共识文件。所有答案都是匿名提供的。每轮的反应率为100%。
    结果:大多数参与者(44人中的42人;95.4%)同意,最小病例量/年对于中心提供开放/血管内AAA修复(EVAR)至关重要(或可能必不可少)。此外,44人中有33人(75.0%)认为AAA筛查程序(可能)仍然具有临床效果和成本效益。此外,大多数小组成员(44人中的36人;81.9%)投票认为EVAR后的监测应该是(或可能应该是)终身的。最后,44名参与者中有35名(79.7%)认为女性吸烟者应该(或可能/可能)考虑在65岁时进行筛查,与男性相似。对于降低接受EVAR的患者的AAA修复阈值和需要预防深静脉血栓形成,尚未达成共识。
    结论:这份以专家为基础的Delphi共识文件为临床医生提供有关具体未解决问题的指导。在某些主题上无法达成共识,强调需要在这些领域进行进一步研究。
    OBJECTIVE: As a result of conflicting, inadequate or controversial data in the literature, several issues concerning the management of patients with abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) remain unanswered. The aim of this international, expert-based Delphi Consensus document was to provide some guidance for clinicians on these controversial topics.
    METHODS: A 3-Round Delphi Consensus document was produced with 44 experts on 6 pre-specified topics regarding the management of AAAs. All answers were provided anonymously. The response rate for each round was 100%.
    RESULTS: Most participants (42 of 44; 95.4%) agreed that a minimum case volume/year is essential (or probably essential) for a center to offer open/endovascular AAA repair (EVAR). Furthermore, 33 of 44 (75.0%) believed that AAA screening programs are (probably) still clinically effective and cost-effective. Additionally, most panelists (36 of 44; 81.9%) voted that surveillance after EVAR should be (or should probably be) lifelong. Finally, 35 of 44 (79.7%) participants thought that women smokers should (or should probably/possibly) be considered for screening at 65 years of age similar to men. No consensus was achieved regarding lowering the threshold for AAA repair and the need for deep venous thrombosis prophylaxis in patients undergoing EVAR.
    CONCLUSIONS: This expert-based Delphi Consensus document provides guidance for clinicians regarding specific unresolved issues. Consensus could not be achieved in some topics, highlighting the need for further research in those areas.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:需要实用的社交媒体建议,以促进更多参与痴呆症预防研究。与相关专家一道,我们的目标是制定一套共识建议,反映潜在参与者的价值观和优先事项,以指导社交媒体的使用。
    方法:我们进行了三轮,修改后的Delphi由三个在线调查和三个电话会议组成。多样化,国际德尔福小组由16名专家组成,他们有生活经验(n=10)和专业经验(n=6)。共识先验定义为≥70%的一致性。
    结果:26项达成共识。在第一轮中,有两个项目达成了共识:封闭社交媒体团体的道德考虑(88%)和社交媒体用户与不在社交媒体上的联系人分享预防内容(79%)。在第二轮中,有九个项目达成共识,与错误信息有关(79%),污名(93%),以及社交媒体传播的其他关键方面。修订后,15个项目在最后一轮达成共识。这些项目包括:确定研究人员何时应该参与,管理封闭的社交媒体团体,短格式内容排名,优先考虑摘要和多媒体资源,以及首选语言的排名。关于痴呆症患者的预防语言的一项内容尚未达成共识。最后的共识项目形成了一套新的建议,我们组织了七个社交媒体用例。这些用例包括建立社交媒体页面或社区,处理网上错误信息,积极挑战污名,处理困难的在线互动,向公众介绍新的研究,帮助学习招聘,和写帖子时的预防语言。
    结论:这些共识建议可以帮助痴呆症预防研究人员利用社交媒体用于公众参与的目的,并维护痴呆症研究和更广泛社区特有的规范和价值观。
    我们与研究和社区专家一起创建了社交媒体推荐。建议涵盖痴呆症预防研究的关键伦理考虑因素。领域包括错误信息,污名,信息更新,和首选语言。完整的共识建议被组织成七个社交媒体用例。
    BACKGROUND: Practical social media recommendations are needed to facilitate greater engagement in dementia prevention research. Alongside relevant experts, our aim was to develop a set of consensus recommendations that reflect the values and priorities of prospective participants to guide social media use.
    METHODS: We conducted a three-round, modified Delphi consisting of three online surveys and three conferences calls. The diverse, international Delphi panel comprised 16 experts with lived (n = 10) and professional (n = 6) experiences. Consensus was defined a priori as ≥ 70% agreement.
    RESULTS: Twenty-six items achieved consensus. Two items reached consensus in round 1: ethical considerations of closed social media groups (88%) and of social media users sharing prevention content with connections who are not on social media (79%). Nine items reached consensus in round 2, related to misinformation (79%), stigma (93%), and other key aspects of social media communication. After revisions, 15 items reached consensus in the final round. These items included: identifying when researchers ought to engage, managing closed social media groups, rankings of short form content, prioritizing lay summaries and multimedia resources, and rankings of preferred language. One item about the language of prevention for audiences living with dementia did not reach consensus. Final consensus items formed the new set of recommendations, which we organized into seven social media use cases. These use cases include setting up a social media page or community, handling online misinformation, actively challenging stigma, handling difficult online interactions, introducing new research to the public, help with study recruitment, and the language of prevention when writing posts.
    CONCLUSIONS: These consensus recommendations can help dementia prevention researchers harness social media use for the purposes of public engagement and uphold the norms and values specific to the dementia research and broader communities.
    UNASSIGNED: We created social media recommendations with research and community experts.Recommendations cover key ethical considerations for dementia prevention research.Areas include misinformation, stigma, information updates, and preferred language.Full consensus recommendations are organized into seven social media use cases.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:参数医学是一个充满活力的职业,已经从“治疗和运输”服务发展成为一个复杂的卫生专业人员网络,从事各种临床工作。在参数医学背景下,研究具有挑战性,在国际上,研究能力和文化发展缓慢。国际上存在辅助医学研究议程和战略的例子,然而,爱尔兰以前没有确定研究重点。
    方法:本研究是一个三轮电子改进的Delphi设计,旨在通过最终用户共识建立研究重点的关键方面。参与者包括参与爱尔兰院前护理或研究的感兴趣的利益相关者。第一轮问卷由开放式问题组成,结果编码并发展为第二轮和第三轮问卷中使用的封闭式问题的主题。第二轮和第三轮的共识水平为70%。
    结果:达成共识的研究重点包括员工福利,教育和专业和急性医疗条件。受访者表示,这三个领域应该是未来两年的优先事项。教育,人员配置和领导力是需要变革的关键资源。教育是一项关键的过程变革,被认为是允许未来研究进行的必要条件。应包括在未来研究策略中的结果是患者结果,从业者发展,从业者福利,替代途径,循证实践与员工满意度。
    结论:这项研究的结果与以前发表的国际研究相似,一些关键的差异。人们更加重视教育和从业者的福祉,后者可能归因于与COVID-19大流行有关的研究时间。这项研究的传播结果应为可持续资助模式提供信息,以帮助爱尔兰开展辅助医学研究。
    BACKGROUND: Paramedicine is a dynamic profession which has evolved from a \"treat and transport\" service into a complex network of health professionals working in a diverse range of clinical roles. Research is challenging in the paramedicine context, and internationally, research capacity and culture has developed slowly. International examples of research agendas and strategies in paramedicine exist, however, research priorities have not previously been identified in Ireland.
    METHODS: This study was a three round electronic modified Delphi design which aimed to establish the key aspects of the research priorities via end-user consensus. Participants included interested stakeholders involved in prehospital care or research in Ireland. The first round questionnaire consisted of open-ended questions with results coded and developed into themes for the closed-ended questions used in the second and third round questionnaires. A consensus level of 70% was set a priori for second and third rounds.
    RESULTS: Research Priorities that reached consensus included Staff Wellbeing, Education and Professionalism and Acute Medical Conditions. Respondents indicated that these three areas should be a priority in the next 2 years. Education, Staffing and Leadership were imperative Key Resources that required change. Education was a Key Processes change deemed imperative to allow the future research to occur. Outcomes that should be included in the future research strategy were Patient Outcomes, Practitioner Development, Practitioner Wellbeing, Alternate Pathways, Evidence-based Practice and Staff Satisfaction.
    CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study are similar to previously published international studies, with some key differences. There was a greater emphasis on Education and Practitioner Wellbeing with the latter possibly attributed to the timing of the research in relation to the COVID-19 pandemic. The disseminated findings of this study should inform sustainable funding models to aid the development of paramedicine research in Ireland.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:青少年护理指南的实施仍然是一个复杂的过程。几个基于证据的框架有助于确定和规范实施决定因素和策略。然而,具体策略对某些决定因素的影响尚不清楚.因此,我们需要澄清策略的哪些活性成分,被称为行为改变技术(BCT),引发行为改变并改善实施结果。有了这些知识,我们能够制定基于证据的实施假设。实施假设详细说明了决定因素和反过来,实施结果可能会受到具体实施策略及其BCT的影响。我们旨在确定(1)与实施青年护理指南相关的决定因素,以及(2)可行且可能有效的实施假设。
    方法:进行了四轮在线改良Delphi研究。在第一轮中,专家们根据实施决定因素的相关性对其进行了评级。接下来,专家们通过将BCT和实施策略与决定因素联系起来制定了实施假设,并被要求为他们的选择提供理由。在第三轮中,专家们根据对所有提出的假设的匿名概述,重新考虑并最终确定了他们的假设,包括理由。最后,专家们根据实施假设的潜在有效性和可行性对其进行了评估。
    结果:14位专家完成了第一个,第二,第三轮,11人完成了最后一轮。指导推广,义务教育,执行负责人在场,管理支持不力,有关指南使用的知识,据报道,缺乏沟通技巧是最相关的决定因素。总的来说,提出了46个假设,每个行列式从6到9不等。对于每个行列式,我们提供了最通常被认为可行和潜在有效的实施假设的概述。
    结论:本研究通过系统地确定相关决定因素并根据专家意见制定假设,为青年护理指南的实施提供了有价值的见解。发现与参与以及与知识和技能有关的决定因素与青年护理指南的实施有关。这项研究提供了一组假设,可以帮助组织,政策制定者,和专业人员指导青年护理指南的实施过程,以最终改善实施成果。这些假设在实践中的有效性仍有待评估。
    BACKGROUND: The implementation of youth care guidelines remains a complex process. Several evidence-based frameworks aid the identification and specification of implementation determinants and strategies. However, the influence of specific strategies on certain determinants remains unclear. Therefore, we need to clarify which active ingredients of strategies, known as behaviour change techniques (BCTs), elicit behaviour change and improve implementation outcomes. With this knowledge, we are able to formulate evidence-based implementation hypotheses. An implementation hypothesis details how determinants and in turn, implementation outcomes might be influenced by specific implementation strategies and their BCTs. We aimed to identify (1) determinants relevant to the implementation of youth care guidelines and (2) feasible and potentially effective implementation hypotheses.
    METHODS: A four-round online modified Delphi study was conducted. In the first round, experts rated the implementation determinants based on their relevance. Next, experts formulated implementation hypotheses by connecting BCTs and implementation strategies to determinants and were asked to provide a rationale for their choices. In round three, the experts reconsidered and finalised their hypotheses based on an anonymous overview of all formulated hypotheses, including rationales. Finally, the experts rated the implementation hypotheses based on their potential effectiveness and feasibility.
    RESULTS: Fourteen experts completed the first, second, and third rounds, with 11 completed the final round. Guideline promotion, mandatory education, presence of an implementation leader, poor management support, knowledge regarding guideline use, and a lack of communication skills were reported as most relevant determinants. In total, 46 hypotheses were formulated, ranging from 6 to 9 per determinant. For each determinant, we provide an overview of the implementation hypotheses that were most commonly deemed feasible and potentially effective.
    CONCLUSIONS: This study offers valuable insights into youth care guideline implementation by systematically identifying relevant determinants and formulating hypotheses based on expert input. Determinants related to engagement and to knowledge and skills were found to be relevant to youth care guideline implementation. This study offers a set of hypotheses that could help organisations, policymakers, and professionals guide the implementation process of youth care guidelines to ultimately improve implementation outcomes. The effectiveness of these hypotheses in practice remains to be assessed.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:技术援助(TA)是一种量身定制的能力建设方法,通常用于支持基于证据的干预措施的实施。尽管其广泛应用,用于评估TA关键组件的测量工具很少。特别是,该领域缺乏专家知情的措施来检查TA提供者和接受者之间的关系质量。TA关系是TA的核心,并且与计划实施结果显着相关。当前的研究旨在通过提供评估TA关系的量表来解决TA测量工具中的差距。
    方法:我们采用了改进的Delphi方法,包括两轮Delphi调查和与TA专家的小组讨论,以获得对构成TA参与量表的领域和项目的反馈和共识。
    结果:TA专家代表了各种美国组织和TA角色(例如,提供者,收件人,研究人员),第一次调查中有25名受访者,第二次调查中有26名受访者。修改后的Delphi过程产生了一个由六个域和22个与提供者和接收者之间的TA关系相关且重要的项目组成的量表。
    结论:TA参与量表是一种形成性评估工具,旨在为TA提供者提供识别提供者与接受者关系增长优势和领域的能力,并就持续需求进行沟通。作为标准测量工具,它为更系统地收集TA数据迈出了一步,产生更连贯的TA证据的能力,并启用跨设置的TA关系比较。
    BACKGROUND: Technical assistance (TA) is a tailored approach to capacity building that is commonly used to support implementation of evidence-based interventions. Despite its widespread applications, measurement tools for assessing critical components of TA are scant. In particular, the field lacks an expert-informed measure for examining relationship quality between TA providers and recipients. TA relationships are central to TA and significantly associated with program implementation outcomes. The current study seeks to address the gap in TA measurement tools by providing a scale for assessing TA relationships.
    METHODS: We utilized a modified Delphi approach involving two rounds of Delphi surveys and a panel discussion with TA experts to garner feedback and consensus on the domains and items that compose the TA Engagement Scale.
    RESULTS: TA experts represented various U.S. organizations and TA roles (e.g., provider, recipient, researcher) with 25 respondents in the first survey and 26 respondents in the second survey. The modified Delphi process resulted in a scale composed of six domains and 22 items relevant and important to TA relationships between providers and recipients.
    CONCLUSIONS: The TA Engagement Scale is a formative evaluation tool intended to offer TA providers the ability to identify strengths and areas for growth in the provider-recipient relationship and to communicate about ongoing needs. As a standard measurement tool, it lends a step toward more systematic collection of TA data, the ability to generate a more coherent body of TA evidence, and enables comparisons of TA relationships across settings.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    作为将资本引导到气候和环境项目的有效金融工具,绿色债券的发行受到无数障碍的阻碍。因此,本研究旨在探讨越南绿色债券发行的关键障碍。本研究通过利用综合基于模糊集理论的Delphi的综合多准则决策方法来阐明突出的障碍,决策试验与评估实验室(DEMATEL)和基于DEMATEL的分析网络过程(DANP)。对绿色债券的广泛文献综述描绘了与障碍相关的五个关键维度:政策,市场,Financial,容量,和意识,有38个离散指标代表潜在障碍。首先,采用对16名专家的模糊德尔菲调查,提取32个指标用于进一步分析。然后,模糊DEMATEL建模评估障碍之间的相互关系和相互作用。最后,DANP用于获得关键障碍的相对重要性。结果揭示了作为薄弱的监管框架和基础设施(PO1)的五个最强大的障碍,绿色债券发行指南和模板(PO2)的可用性有限,绿色债券发行人(PO3)的激励措施或税收优惠不足,与国际绿色债券标准(PO5)的协调和一致性有限,投资者对绿色项目的质量和信誉缺乏信心(AW4),和发行人之间的能力限制,特别是在较小的组织或政府机构(CA1)。该研究为更广泛的绿色金融文献做出了贡献,并为促进越南和其他发展中经济体的可持续金融实践提供了宝贵的见解。
    As potent financial instruments channeling capital into climate and environmental projects, green bonds\' issuance is frustrated by myriad obstacles. Therefore, this study aims to explore the critical barriers to green bond issuance in Vietnam. This study elucidates the salient barriers by utilizing an integrated multi-criteria decision-making methodology synthesizing the Fuzzy set theory-based Delphi, Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL), and DEMATEL-based Analytic Network Process (DANP). An extensive literature review of green bonds delineates five key dimensions related to impediments: Policy, Market, Financial, Capacity, and Awareness, with 38 discrete indicators representing potential obstacles. Firstly, employing a Fuzzy Delphi survey of 16 experts, 32 indicators are distilled for further analysis. Then, Fuzzy DEMATEL modeling evaluates the interrelationships and interactions among barriers. Finally, DANP is applied to obtain the relative importance of key barriers. Results unveil the five most formidable barriers as a weak regulatory framework and infrastructure (PO1), Limited availability of green bond issuance guidelines and templates (PO2), Insufficient incentives or tax benefits for green bond issuers (PO3), Limited coordination and alignment with international green bond standards (PO5), Lack of investor confidence in the quality and credibility of green projects (AW4), and Capacity constraints among issuers, particularly in smaller organisations or government agencies (CA1). The research contributes to the broader literature on green finance and offers valuable insights for promoting sustainable finance practices in Vietnam and other developing economies.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:当前研究的目的是评估专家预测的准确性,这是在2009年至2011年之间使用Delphi小组前瞻性研究得出的,该研究涉及芬兰2020年与药物相关的各种主题。
    方法:用于评估预测准确性的材料包括已发布的统计报告,调查结果,官方注册数据,废水分析和官方文件。只要有可能,我们使用多个信息源来确定与预测相关的可能变化.
    结果:在2009年至2011年期间,大多数(但不是全部)专家准确地预测了药物使用的增加。的确,更多的人尝试或使用药物,在废水监测中发现了更多的药物残留。专家们还正确地预测了人口层面对药物使用的批准会增加,但是这种发展相当缓慢。与预测相反,新合成药物的使用没有明显增加。然而,丁丙诺啡的滥用在2010年代增加。在毒品市场,令人惊讶的是,十年来单价稳定。有关毒品法律地位的法例并无改变,正如专家所预见的那样。然而,执法朝着专家预见的方向发展:对用户采取了更宽松的措施。正如专家们所预见的那样,药物护理体制改革有利于在2009年至2011年和2020年之间将心理健康和成瘾护理单位结合起来。
    结论:专家们似乎更容易预见现有趋势的延续,例如,增加药物的使用或扩大药物的批准,而不是预测新精神活性物质(NPS)等不同药物组受欢迎程度的可能变化。即使有了毒品进口和批发将越来越多地落入有组织犯罪领域的预测,这种不良的发展无法阻止。专家的分歧也可以被视为对未来不确定性的宝贵迹象。与毒品相关问题有关的远见至少可以在未来十年内对未来产生相对准确和现实的看法。
    BACKGROUND: The aim of the current study was to assess the accuracy of expert predictions, which were derived using a Delphi panel foresight study between 2009 and 2011, on a variety of drug-related topics in Finland in 2020.
    METHODS: The material used to evaluate the accuracy of the predictions consists of published reports on statistics, survey results, official register data, wastewater analyses and official documents. Whenever possible, we used multiple information sources to ascertain possible changes related to the predictions.
    RESULTS: Between 2009 and 2011, the majority - but not all - of the experts accurately predicted an increase in drug use. Indeed, more people experimented with or used drugs, and more drug residues were found in wastewater monitoring. The experts also correctly predicted an increase in population-level approval of drug use, but this development has been rather slow. Contrary to predictions, there was no marked increase in the use of new synthetic drugs. However, the misuse of buprenorphine increased during the 2010s. In the drug market, unit prices were surprisingly stable over the ten-year period. There were no changes in legislation related to the legal status of drugs, as was foreseen by the experts. However, enforcement moved in the direction foreseen by the experts: more lenient measures have been taken against users. Drug care system reforms favored a combination of mental health and addiction care units between 2009 and 2011, and 2020, as foreseen by the experts.
    CONCLUSIONS: It seems to have been easier for the experts to foresee the continuation of existing trends, e.g., increasing use of drugs or widening approval of drugs, than to predict possible changes in the popularity of distinct groups of drugs such as new psychoactive substances (NPS). Even armed with the prediction that drug imports and wholesale would increasingly fall into the domain of organized crime, this undesirable development could not be stopped. Expert disagreement can also be seen as a valuable indication of uncertainty regarding the future. Foresight related to drug-related issues can produce relatively accurate and realistic views of the future at least up to ten years ahead.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:将运动整合到标准的肿瘤学护理中需要高技能的运动专业人员队伍;然而,能力要求没有跟上该领域的进步。因此,这项研究的目的是就运动专业人员有资格与接受积极癌症治疗的成年人一起工作所需的核心能力达成共识.
    方法:使用三轮改进的电子Delphi过程。在第一轮中,一个由64名运动肿瘤学利益相关者组成的国际小组(即,运动肿瘤学专业人员(n=29),临床引荐者(n=21),和有生活经验的人(n=14))对开放式提示做出了回应,引发了有关运动肿瘤学专业人员与接受积极癌症治疗的成年人一起工作所需能力的观点。随后,只有运动肿瘤专业人士参与,对能力的重要性进行排名。在第二轮中,专业人员收到了总结反馈,对开放式响应产生的新能力进行排名,并重新排列未达成共识的能力。在最后一轮,专业人员最终确定了共识排名,并对每个人的频率和掌握水平进行了评级。
    结果:就锻炼专业人员有资格向接受积极癌症治疗的成年人提供护理所需的103项核心能力达成了共识。核心能力代表10个内容领域,反映了临床推荐者和有接受癌症治疗经验的人的需求。
    结论:确定的核心能力反映了运动肿瘤学领域的重大进展。成果将支撑教育的发展,认证,以及运动肿瘤学专业人员的就业要求,为实现常规运动融入标准肿瘤护理提供了关键的一步。
    BACKGROUND: Integration of exercise into standard oncology care requires a highly skilled workforce of exercise professionals; however, competency requirements have not kept pace with advancements in the field. Therefore, the aim of this study was to obtain consensus on core competencies required for an exercise professional to be qualified to work with adults undergoing active cancer treatment.
    METHODS: A three-round modified electronic Delphi process was used. In Round 1, an international group of 64 exercise oncology stakeholders (i.e., exercise oncology professionals (n = 29), clinical referrers (n = 21), and people with lived experience (n = 14)) responded to open-ended prompts eliciting perspectives regarding competencies needed for an exercise oncology professional to work with adults receiving active cancer treatment. Subsequently, only exercise oncology professionals participated, ranking the importance of competencies. In Round 2, professionals received summary feedback, ranked new competencies generated from open-ended responses, and reranked competencies not reaching consensus. In the final round, professionals finalized consensus ranking and rated frequency and mastery level for each.
    RESULTS: Consensus was reached on 103 core competencies required for exercise professionals to be qualified to deliver care to adults undergoing active cancer treatment. The core competencies represent 10 content areas and reflect the needs of clinical referrers and people with lived experience of receiving cancer treatment.
    CONCLUSIONS: The core competencies identified reflect significant advancements in the field of exercise oncology. Results will underpin the development of education, certification, and employment requirements for exercise oncology professionals, providing a critical step toward achieving routine integration of exercise into standard oncology care.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    卫生部门是发展的组成部分之一,社会福利和经济增长。本研究的目的是通过混合方法建立职业病的环境和健康成本的经济评价模型。为了实现学习目标,已经建立了职业病环境和健康成本的经济评价模型的分类法。德尔菲法用于识别健康和环境标准,分析网络过程(ANP)方法用于衡量子标准。最后,健康和环境成本是根据现有信息估算的。德黑兰的Naft亚专科医院,伊朗(NSHT),被选为案例研究的地方。在这项研究中,卫生和环境部门确定了8个和11个次级标准,分别。ANP结果表明,医疗行业的医疗和医疗设备成本标准权重为0.312,环境部门中重量为0.085的特殊和传染性废物成本标准是NSHT中最重要的成本标准。此外,参数模型结果表明,总成本的99.84%和0.16%与健康和环境成本相关,分别。调查结果显示,卫生部门61.3%的费用与医药和医疗设备两个部门以及服务人员费用有关,环境部门91.7%的成本与废水处理和电力消耗成本有关。这项研究试图提出一个NSHT健康和环境成本的定量模型。这种综合模式的实施可以是分配资源和优先考虑干预措施的一个实际和有效的步骤。
    The health sector is one of the components of development, social welfare and economic growth. The purpose of this study was to develop an economic evaluation model of the environmental and health costs of occupational diseases by hybrid approach. To achieve the study goal, a taxonomy of economic evaluation model of the environmental and health costs of occupational diseases has been developed. The Delphi method was used to identify health and environmental criteria and the analytic network process (ANP) method was used to weigh the sub-criteria. Finally, health and environmental cost were estimated based on the available information. Naft Subspecialty Hospital in Tehran, Iran (NSHT), was selected as the place of case study. In this study, eight and eleven sub-criteria were identified in the health and environmental sector, respectively. The ANP results indicated that the medicine and medical equipment cost criteria with a weight of 0.312 in the Medical sector, and the special and infectious waste cost criteria with a weight of 0.085 in the environmental sector were the most significant cost criteria in NSHT. Furthermore, the parametric model findings indicated that 99.84 and 0.16% of the total costs are associated with health and environmental costs, respectively. The findings indicated that 61.3% of the costs of the health sector were associated with the two sectors of medicine and medical equipment and the cost-of-service personnel, and 91.7% of the costs of the environmental sector are associated with wastewater treatment and the cost of electricity consumption. This study tried to present a quantitative model of the health and environmental costs of NSHT. Implemention of this integrated model can be a practical and effective step in allocating resources and prioritize interventions.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:人工智能(AI)在增强临床和行政医疗保健任务方面具有巨大潜力。然而,缓慢的采用和实施挑战凸显了需要考虑人类如何在更广泛的医疗保健社会技术系统中有效地与人工智能合作。
    目的:以重症监护病房(ICU)为例,我们比较了数据科学家和临床医生对人类和人工智能能力的最佳利用的评估,方法是确定合适的人类-人工智能团队,以安全和有意义地增强或自动化6项核心任务。目标是为政策制定者和医疗保健从业人员提供有关AI设计和实施的可行建议。
    方法:在这项多方法研究中,我们将6个ICU的系统任务分析与来自工业界和学术界的19名健康数据科学家和61名ICU临床医生(25名医生和36名护士)的国际Delphi调查相结合,以定义和评估最佳的人-AI合作水平(1级=无绩效收益;2级=AI增强人类绩效;3级=人类增强AI绩效;4级=AI无需人工投入).利益相关者团体还考虑了道德和社会影响。
    结果:两个利益相关者团体都选择了2级和3级人类-AI团队来完成ICU中6个核心任务中的4个。对于一项任务(监控),4级是首选的设计选择。对于患者互动的任务,数据科学家和临床医生都同意,由于医患关系和护患关系的重要性以及道德问题,无论技术可行性如何,都不应使用AI。人类人工智能设计选择依赖于可解释性,可预测性,以及对AI系统的控制。如果不满足这些条件,并且AI的性能低于人类水平的可靠性,建议将责任降低到1级,或将责任从人类最终用户转移出去。如果人工智能的性能达到或超过人类水平的可靠性,而这些条件不满足,应考虑转移到4级自动化,以确保安全和高效的人类-AI团队合作。
    结论:通过考虑社会技术系统并确定适当的人类-AI团队水平,我们的研究展示了在ICU和更广泛的医疗保健环境中提高AI使用安全性和有效性的潜力.监管措施应优先考虑可解释性,可预测性,并控制临床医生是否承担全部责任。必须仔细评估道德和社会影响,以确保人类和人工智能之间的有效合作。特别是考虑到生成人工智能的最新进展。
    BACKGROUND: Artificial intelligence (AI) holds immense potential for enhancing clinical and administrative health care tasks. However, slow adoption and implementation challenges highlight the need to consider how humans can effectively collaborate with AI within broader socio-technical systems in health care.
    OBJECTIVE: In the example of intensive care units (ICUs), we compare data scientists\' and clinicians\' assessments of the optimal utilization of human and AI capabilities by determining suitable levels of human-AI teaming for safely and meaningfully augmenting or automating 6 core tasks. The goal is to provide actionable recommendations for policy makers and health care practitioners regarding AI design and implementation.
    METHODS: In this multimethod study, we combine a systematic task analysis across 6 ICUs with an international Delphi survey involving 19 health data scientists from the industry and academia and 61 ICU clinicians (25 physicians and 36 nurses) to define and assess optimal levels of human-AI teaming (level 1=no performance benefits; level 2=AI augments human performance; level 3=humans augment AI performance; level 4=AI performs without human input). Stakeholder groups also considered ethical and social implications.
    RESULTS: Both stakeholder groups chose level 2 and 3 human-AI teaming for 4 out of 6 core tasks in the ICU. For one task (monitoring), level 4 was the preferred design choice. For the task of patient interactions, both data scientists and clinicians agreed that AI should not be used regardless of technological feasibility due to the importance of the physician-patient and nurse-patient relationship and ethical concerns. Human-AI design choices rely on interpretability, predictability, and control over AI systems. If these conditions are not met and AI performs below human-level reliability, a reduction to level 1 or shifting accountability away from human end users is advised. If AI performs at or beyond human-level reliability and these conditions are not met, shifting to level 4 automation should be considered to ensure safe and efficient human-AI teaming.
    CONCLUSIONS: By considering the sociotechnical system and determining appropriate levels of human-AI teaming, our study showcases the potential for improving the safety and effectiveness of AI usage in ICUs and broader health care settings. Regulatory measures should prioritize interpretability, predictability, and control if clinicians hold full accountability. Ethical and social implications must be carefully evaluated to ensure effective collaboration between humans and AI, particularly considering the most recent advancements in generative AI.
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