PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
BACKGROUND: The aim of the current study was to assess the accuracy of expert predictions, which were derived using a Delphi panel foresight study between 2009 and 2011, on a variety of drug-related topics in Finland in 2020.
METHODS: The material used to evaluate the accuracy of the predictions consists of published reports on statistics, survey results, official register data, wastewater analyses and official documents. Whenever possible, we used multiple information sources to ascertain possible changes related to the predictions.
RESULTS: Between 2009 and 2011, the majority - but not all - of the experts accurately predicted an increase in drug use. Indeed, more people experimented with or used drugs, and more drug residues were found in wastewater monitoring. The experts also correctly predicted an increase in population-level approval of drug use, but this development has been rather slow. Contrary to predictions, there was no marked increase in the use of new synthetic drugs. However, the misuse of buprenorphine increased during the 2010s. In the drug market, unit prices were surprisingly stable over the ten-year period. There were no changes in legislation related to the legal status of drugs, as was foreseen by the experts. However, enforcement moved in the direction foreseen by the experts: more lenient measures have been taken against users. Drug care system reforms favored a combination of mental health and addiction care units between 2009 and 2011, and 2020, as foreseen by the experts.
CONCLUSIONS: It seems to have been easier for the experts to foresee the continuation of existing trends, e.g., increasing use of drugs or widening approval of drugs, than to predict possible changes in the popularity of distinct groups of drugs such as new psychoactive substances (NPS). Even armed with the prediction that drug imports and wholesale would increasingly fall into the domain of organized crime, this undesirable development could not be stopped. Expert disagreement can also be seen as a valuable indication of uncertainty regarding the future. Foresight related to drug-related issues can produce relatively accurate and realistic views of the future at least up to ten years ahead.
METHODS: The material used to evaluate the accuracy of the predictions consists of published reports on statistics, survey results, official register data, wastewater analyses and official documents. Whenever possible, we used multiple information sources to ascertain possible changes related to the predictions.
RESULTS: Between 2009 and 2011, the majority - but not all - of the experts accurately predicted an increase in drug use. Indeed, more people experimented with or used drugs, and more drug residues were found in wastewater monitoring. The experts also correctly predicted an increase in population-level approval of drug use, but this development has been rather slow. Contrary to predictions, there was no marked increase in the use of new synthetic drugs. However, the misuse of buprenorphine increased during the 2010s. In the drug market, unit prices were surprisingly stable over the ten-year period. There were no changes in legislation related to the legal status of drugs, as was foreseen by the experts. However, enforcement moved in the direction foreseen by the experts: more lenient measures have been taken against users. Drug care system reforms favored a combination of mental health and addiction care units between 2009 and 2011, and 2020, as foreseen by the experts.
CONCLUSIONS: It seems to have been easier for the experts to foresee the continuation of existing trends, e.g., increasing use of drugs or widening approval of drugs, than to predict possible changes in the popularity of distinct groups of drugs such as new psychoactive substances (NPS). Even armed with the prediction that drug imports and wholesale would increasingly fall into the domain of organized crime, this undesirable development could not be stopped. Expert disagreement can also be seen as a valuable indication of uncertainty regarding the future. Foresight related to drug-related issues can produce relatively accurate and realistic views of the future at least up to ten years ahead.
摘要：
背景：当前研究的目的是评估专家预测的准确性，这是在2009年至2011年之间使用Delphi小组前瞻性研究得出的，该研究涉及芬兰2020年与药物相关的各种主题。
方法：用于评估预测准确性的材料包括已发布的统计报告，调查结果，官方注册数据，废水分析和官方文件。只要有可能,我们使用多个信息源来确定与预测相关的可能变化.
结果：在2009年至2011年期间，大多数（但不是全部）专家准确地预测了药物使用的增加。的确,更多的人尝试或使用药物，在废水监测中发现了更多的药物残留。专家们还正确地预测了人口层面对药物使用的批准会增加，但是这种发展相当缓慢。与预测相反，新合成药物的使用没有明显增加。然而,丁丙诺啡的滥用在2010年代增加。在毒品市场，令人惊讶的是，十年来单价稳定。有关毒品法律地位的法例并无改变,正如专家所预见的那样。然而,执法朝着专家预见的方向发展:对用户采取了更宽松的措施。正如专家们所预见的那样，药物护理体制改革有利于在2009年至2011年和2020年之间将心理健康和成瘾护理单位结合起来。
结论：专家们似乎更容易预见现有趋势的延续，例如，增加药物的使用或扩大药物的批准，而不是预测新精神活性物质（NPS）等不同药物组受欢迎程度的可能变化。即使有了毒品进口和批发将越来越多地落入有组织犯罪领域的预测，这种不良的发展无法阻止。专家的分歧也可以被视为对未来不确定性的宝贵迹象。与毒品相关问题有关的远见至少可以在未来十年内对未来产生相对准确和现实的看法。
方法：用于评估预测准确性的材料包括已发布的统计报告，调查结果，官方注册数据，废水分析和官方文件。只要有可能,我们使用多个信息源来确定与预测相关的可能变化.
结果：在2009年至2011年期间，大多数（但不是全部）专家准确地预测了药物使用的增加。的确,更多的人尝试或使用药物，在废水监测中发现了更多的药物残留。专家们还正确地预测了人口层面对药物使用的批准会增加，但是这种发展相当缓慢。与预测相反，新合成药物的使用没有明显增加。然而,丁丙诺啡的滥用在2010年代增加。在毒品市场，令人惊讶的是，十年来单价稳定。有关毒品法律地位的法例并无改变,正如专家所预见的那样。然而,执法朝着专家预见的方向发展:对用户采取了更宽松的措施。正如专家们所预见的那样，药物护理体制改革有利于在2009年至2011年和2020年之间将心理健康和成瘾护理单位结合起来。
结论：专家们似乎更容易预见现有趋势的延续，例如，增加药物的使用或扩大药物的批准，而不是预测新精神活性物质（NPS）等不同药物组受欢迎程度的可能变化。即使有了毒品进口和批发将越来越多地落入有组织犯罪领域的预测，这种不良的发展无法阻止。专家的分歧也可以被视为对未来不确定性的宝贵迹象。与毒品相关问题有关的远见至少可以在未来十年内对未来产生相对准确和现实的看法。
