Global Warming

全球变暖
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    气候变化使亚北极生态系统暴露在更高的温度下,增加营养的可用性,增加云层覆盖。在这项研究中,我们评估了这些因素如何影响温室气体(GHG)的通量(即,甲烷(CH4),一氧化二氮(N2O),和二氧化碳(CO2)),和亚北极地区的生物挥发性有机化合物(BVOCs)经历了34年的气候变化相关的温度操纵,营养可用性,和光。温室气体从静态室取样,并用气相色谱仪分析气体。使用推拉法测量BVOCs,并用色谱-质谱分析气体。在GHG和BVOC测量过程中,温暖和阴影地块的土壤温度和水分含量与对照没有显着差异。此外,在加温和阴影地块的BVOC测量过程中,外壳温度与对照温度没有显着差异。因此,这允许评估气候处理操作的长期影响,而不会干扰测量时的温度和湿度差异。变暖增强了CH4的吸收和CO2,N2O的排放,和异戊二烯。养分利用率的增加增加了CO2和N2O的排放量,但没有引起CH4和BVOCs通量的显着变化。与对照相比,阴影(模拟混浊度增加)增强了CH4的吸收,但未引起其他气体通量的显着变化。结果表明,气候变暖和云量增加将增强北极下中部健康生态系统的CH4沉降强度,提供负面的气候反馈,而气候变暖和营养供应的增加将通过增加CO2和N2O的排放提供积极的气候反馈。气候变暖也会间接,通过植被变化,增加亚北极生态系统中作为异戊二烯的碳损失量。
    Climate change is exposing subarctic ecosystems to higher temperatures, increased nutrient availability, and increasing cloud cover. In this study, we assessed how these factors affect the fluxes of greenhouse gases (GHGs) (i.e., methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and carbon dioxide (CO2)), and biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) in a subarctic mesic heath subjected to 34 years of climate change related manipulations of temperature, nutrient availability, and light. GHGs were sampled from static chambers and gases analyzed with gas chromatograph. BVOCs were measured using the push-pull method and gases analyzed with chromatography-mass spectrometry. The soil temperature and moisture content in the warmed and shaded plots did not differ significantly from that in the controls during GHG and BVOC measurements. Also, the enclosure temperatures during BVOC measurements in the warmed and shaded plots did not differ significantly from temperatures in the controls. Hence, this allowed for assessment of long-term effects of the climate treatment manipulations without interference of temperature and moisture differences at the time of measurements. Warming enhanced CH4 uptake and the emissions of CO2, N2O, and isoprene. Increased nutrient availability increased the emissions of CO2 and N2O but caused no significant changes in the fluxes of CH4 and BVOCs. Shading (simulating increased cloudiness) enhanced CH4 uptake but caused no significant changes in the fluxes of other gases compared to the controls. The results show that climate warming and increased cloudiness will enhance CH4 sink strength of subarctic mesic heath ecosystems, providing negative climate feedback, while climate warming and enhanced nutrient availability will provide positive climate feedback through increased emissions of CO2 and N2O. Climate warming will also indirectly, through vegetation changes, increase the amount of carbon lost as isoprene from subarctic ecosystems.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    极端温度对陆地生态系统产生重大影响,但是,这些极端情况引发植被生产力不利变化的确切水平仍然难以捉摸。在这项研究中,我们得出了两个临界阈值,使用生长季节温度和基于卫星的植被生产力的标准偏差(SD)作为关键指标。我们的发现表明,平均而言,在2001年至2018年期间,当温度异常超过平均温度以上1.45SD时,植被生产力会受到快速抑制。此外,在超过平均值2.98SD的温度下,我们观察到最大程度的抑制,特别是对最极端的高温事件的反应。当地球系统模型由未来的中等排放情景驱动时,他们预测,平均温度将分别在2050年和2070年左右超过这两个关键阈值。然而,重要的是要注意,这些阈值交叉的时间表现出空间变化,并且在热带地区将出现得更早。我们的发现强调,将全球变暖限制在1.5°C可以使植被生长的安全区域增加13%,而允许变暖达到工业化前水平以上2°C。这种缓解策略有助于避免暴露于违反这些阈值的有害极端温度。我们的研究强调了气候缓解政策在气候变暖的世界中促进陆地生态系统可持续发展的关键作用。
    Temperature extremes exert a significant influence on terrestrial ecosystems, but the precise levels at which these extremes trigger adverse shifts in vegetation productivity have remained elusive. In this study, we have derived two critical thresholds, using standard deviations (SDs) of growing-season temperature and satellite-based vegetation productivity as key indicators. Our findings reveal that, on average, vegetation productivity experiences rapid suppression when confronted with temperature anomalies exceeding 1.45 SD above the mean temperature during 2001-2018. Furthermore, at temperatures exceeding 2.98 SD above the mean, we observe the maximum level of suppression, particularly in response to the most extreme high-temperature events. When Earth System Models are driven by a future medium emission scenario, they project that mean temperatures will routinely surpass both of these critical thresholds by approximately the years 2050 and 2070, respectively. However, it is important to note that the timing of these threshold crossings exhibits spatial variation and will appear much earlier in tropical regions. Our finding highlights that restricting global warming to just 1.5°C can increase safe areas for vegetation growth by 13% compared to allowing warming to reach 2°C above preindustrial levels. This mitigation strategy helps avoid exposure to detrimental extreme temperatures that breach these thresholds. Our study underscores the pivotal role of climate mitigation policies in fostering the sustainable development of terrestrial ecosystems in a warming world.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    果实性状介导动植物相互作用,并且必须在很大程度上进化以匹配其各自分散剂的感官能力和形态。同时,果实性状受当地环境因素的影响,这可能会影响节食植物的性状匹配。温度已被确定为对水果发育有强烈影响的主要因素,由于全球变暖的威胁不断上升,这引起了人们的严重关切。尽管如此,这主要源于在经常受控环境中对驯化品种的研究。对温度升高对野生物种果实性状的影响以及这可能对种子传播网络的影响知之甚少,包括下游对生物多样性和生态系统功能的影响。以马达加斯加东部的五种植物为例,我们使用温度升高方法解决了这一问题,并检查了温度梯度是否与与动物觅食和水果选择相关的水果性状变化有关。我们在代表1.5-2.6°C温度梯度的梯度上采样,与IPCC预测相对应。结果表明,在大多数情况下,温度对所评估的性状没有显着影响。尽管一些物种表现出不同的影响,特别是水果化学简介。这表明,在这些物种中,仅在此范围内的变暖不太可能驱动扩散网络的实质性变化。虽然没有发现系统性影响,结果还表明,温度对果实性状的影响因物种而异,并可能导致特定动植物相互作用的错配。
    Fruit traits mediate animal-plant interactions and have to a large degree evolved to match the sensory capacities and morphology of their respective dispersers. At the same time, fruit traits are affected by local environmental factors, which may affect frugivore-plant trait match. Temperature has been identified as a major factor with a strong effect on the development of fruits, which is of serious concern because of the rising threat of global warming. Nonetheless, this primarily originates from studies on domesticated cultivars in often controlled environments. Little is known on the effect of rising temperatures on fruit traits of wild species and the implications this could have to seed dispersal networks, including downstream consequences to biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. In a case study of five plant species from eastern Madagascar, we addressed this using the elevation-for-temperature approach and examined whether a temperature gradient is systematically associated with variation in fruit traits relevant for animal foraging and fruit selection. We sampled across a gradient representing a temperature gradient of 1.5-2.6 °C, corresponding to IPCC projections. The results showed that in most cases there was no significant effect of temperature on the traits evaluated, although some species showed different effects, particularly fruit chemical profiles. This suggests that in these species warming within this range alone is not likely to drive substantial changes in dispersal networks. While no systemic effects were found, the results also indicate that the effect of temperature on fruit traits differs across species and may lead to mismatches in specific animal-plant interactions.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    干旱是全球变暖和全球气候变化的主要结果之一。这是对人类和其他生物的严重威胁。减少干旱的不利影响,缓解策略以及对极端事件的合理预测至关重要。这项研究旨在通过结合不同的全球气候模型(GCM)来增强预期的二十一世纪干旱的稳健性。在这篇文章中,我们开发了一个新的干旱指数,命名为最大相关先验特征集合索引,该索引基于新提出的加权方案,称为加权集合(WE)。在应用程序中,这项研究考虑了青藏高原地区的32个随机分散的网格点和降水的耦合模型比较项目6期(CMIP6)的18个GCM。在这项研究中,WE方案与传统的简单模型平均(SMA)进行了比较推断。为了调查各种类别的趋势和长期概率,这项研究采用了马尔可夫链稳态概率,Mann-Kendall趋势测试,和森的坡度估计器。这项研究的结果是双重的。首先,比较推断表明,所提出的加权方案比SMA具有更高的效率来合并GCM。其次,研究表明,预计青藏高原将在二十一世纪经历“中度干旱(MD)”。
    Drought is one of the foremost outcomes of global warming and global climate change. It is a serious threat to humans and other living beings. To reduce the adverse impact of drought, mitigation strategies as well as sound projections of extreme events are essential. This research aims to strengthen the robustness of anticipated twenty-first century drought by combining different Global Climate Models (GCMs). In this article, we develop a new drought index, named Maximum Relevant Prior Feature Ensemble index that is based on the newly proposed weighting scheme, called weighted ensemble (WE). In the application, this study considers 32 randomly scattered grid points within the Tibetan Plateau region and 18 GCMs of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) of precipitation. In this study, the comparative inferences of the WE scheme are made with the traditional simple model averaging (SMA). To investigate the trend and long-term probability of various classes, this research employs Markov chain steady states probability, Mann-Kendall trend test, and Sen\'s Slope estimator. The outcomes of this research are twofold. Firstly, the comparative inference shows that the proposed weighting scheme has greater efficiency than SMA to conflate GCMs. Secondly, the research indicates that the Tibetan Plateau is projected to experience \"moderate drought (MD)\" in the twenty-first century.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    全球农作物生产受到干旱等环境因素的严重影响,盐度,冷,洪水等。在这些压力中,干旱是降低作物生产力的主要非生物胁迫之一。预计由于全球温度升高,干旱条件将进一步增加。总的来说,病毒被视为影响作物生产力的病原体。然而,一些研究表明,病毒可以诱导植物的耐旱性。这篇综述探讨了病毒感染与植物干旱响应机制之间相互作用的潜在机制。我们试图解决赋予耐旱性的病毒诱导的分子途径和生理变化,包括激素信号的改变,抗氧化防御,清除活性氧,RNA沉默和miRNA通路的作用,包括热休克蛋白在内的几种基因表达的变化,纤维素合成酶等.此外,我们讨论了与提供耐旱性有关的各种病毒,并检查了表现出这种现象的植物物种的范围。通过应用当前知识并识别理解方面的差距,这篇综述旨在为病毒诱导的植物耐旱性的复杂动态提供有价值的见解,为未来可持续农业的研究方向和实际应用铺平了道路。
    Global crop production is severely affected by environmental factors such as drought, salinity, cold, flood etc. Among these stresses, drought is one of the major abiotic stresses reducing crop productivity. It is expected that drought conditions will further increase because of the increasing global temperature. In general, viruses are seen as a pathogen affecting the crop productivity. However, several researches are showing that viruses can induce drought tolerance in plants. This review explores the mechanisms underlying the interplay between viral infections and the drought response mechanisms in plants. We tried to address the molecular pathways and physiological changes induced by viruses that confer drought tolerance, including alterations in hormone signaling, antioxidant defenses, scavenging the reactive oxygen species, role of RNA silencing and miRNA pathway, change in the expression of several genes including heat shock proteins, cellulose synthase etc. Furthermore, we discuss various viruses implicated in providing drought tolerance and examine the range of plant species exhibiting this phenomenon. By applying current knowledge and identifying gaps in understanding, this review aims to provide valuable insights into the complex dynamics of virus-induced drought tolerance in plants, paving the way for future research directions and practical applications in sustainable agriculture.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:先前的研究已经深入研究了不同职业对环境可持续性的态度和行为。然而,需要更多专门针对放射技师的研究。这项研究旨在调查放射技师的看法,实践,以及放射学环境可持续性变化的障碍。
    方法:获得了机构道德批准(IRB-COHS-FAC-110-2024),并使用GoogleForms进行了数据收集(GoogleInc.,山景,CA).该调查针对多个国家的104名执业放射技师。问题围绕五个领域展开,以收集对人口统计的见解,培训全球变暖和气候变化,对可持续性和气候变化的看法,可持续性障碍,以及目前关于可持续性的放射学实践。数据分析利用描述性和推断性统计。
    结果:104名放射技师完成了这项研究。女性参加环境保护运动的比例明显较高(P=0.01)。大多数受访者(68%)相信气候变化的知识和对自然世界的影响。我们的调查结果显示,74%的受访者认为有必要改进可持续发展实践。减少能源消耗和排放的最常用策略是低能耗照明(60%)。实时电力监控工具(41%),和节能供热系统(32%)。受访者对可持续性的一个重大担忧是:时间(50%)和缺乏领导力(48%)是已确定的障碍中普遍存在的担忧。
    结论:参与者认识到环境可持续性在放射学中的重要性,但是缺乏领导力,支持,权威,设施的限制阻碍了它们的采用。
    放射学必须优先考虑环境可持续性,为放射技师提供资源和培训,并与医疗保健专业人员合作。政策制定者,和环境专家制定可持续医疗保健系统的综合战略。
    BACKGROUND: Previous research has delved into the attitudes and behaviors of diverse professions regarding environmental sustainability. However, there needs to be more research specifically targeting radiographers. This study aims to survey radiographers\' perceptions, practices, and barriers to change concerning environmental sustainability in radiology.
    METHODS: Institutional ethical approval was obtained (IRB-COHS-FAC-110-2024) and data collection was conducted using Google Forms (Google Inc., Mountain View, CA). The survey targeted 104 practicing radiographers across several countries. Questions were structured around five domains to gather insights into demographics, training in global warming and climate change, perceptions of sustainability and climate change, sustainability barriers, and current radiology practices on sustainability. Data analysis utilized descriptive and d inferential statistics.
    RESULTS: One hundred and four radiographers completed the study. Females had a significantly higher attendance rate in environmental protection campaigns (P = 0.01). The majority of respondents (68%) believe in climate change\'s knowledge and impact on the natural world. Our survey findings demonstrate that 74% of respondents believe there\'s a need to improve sustainability practices. The most commonly used strategies to decrease energy consumption and emissions were low-energy lighting (60%), real-time power monitoring tools (41%), and energy-efficient heating systems (32%). A significant concern regarding sustainability emerges among respondents: time (50%) and lack of leadership (48%) are prevalent concerns among the identified barriers.
    CONCLUSIONS: Participants are recognising the importance of environmental sustainability in radiology, but lack of leadership, support, authority, and facility limitations hinder their adoption.
    UNASSIGNED: Radiology must prioritize environmental sustainability by providing resources and training for radiographers and collaborating with healthcare professionals, policymakers, and environmental experts to develop comprehensive strategies for a sustainable healthcare system.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在各种全球气候模型中捕获了云对全球变暖的响应,并对云垂直结构的变化作为地表变暖的函数有明显的推论。然而,用于验证模型输出的长期观测证据很少。这里,我们研究了2000-2019年期间,随着印度夏季风地区气候变暖,探空仪衍生的云宏观物理性质的变化及其与其他大气变量的关联。我们观察到阴天的频率在统计学上显着增加(〜13%十年-1),在季风季节期间,印度地区的高层云(HLCs〜11%十年-1)和低层云(LLCs〜8%十年-1)同时减少。多元线性回归,主成分分析和进一步的相关性分析表明,云垂直结构变化与大规模气候指标之间存在显着关联,例如全球变暖和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动。对流层柱的垂直延伸和云层的向上移动,归因于全球变暖,解释在HLC和LLC中观察到的变化。这些结果有助于更深入地理解全球气候变化和区域云动态之间的动态相互作用。对天气和气候建模有影响。
    The cloud responses to global warming are captured in various global climate models with distinct inferences on changes in cloud vertical structure as function of surface warming. However, long term observational evidences are scarce to validate the model outputs. Here, we have studied the changes in radiosonde derived cloud macro-physical properties and their association with other atmospheric variables during the period 2000-2019 in response to warming climate over the Indian summer monsoon region. We have observed a statistically significant increase in the frequency of cloudy days (∼13 % decade-1), high-level clouds (HLCs ∼11 % decade-1) and simultaneous decrease in low-level clouds (LLCs ∼8 % decade-1) over the Indian region during the monsoon season. The multiple linear regression, principle component analyses and further correlation analyses suggest significant associations between cloud vertical structure variations and large-scale climate indicators, such as global warming and El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The vertical extension of the tropospheric column and the upward shift of clouds, attributed to global warming, explain the changes observed in both HLCs and LLCs. These results contribute to a deeper understanding of the dynamic interplay between global climate change and regional cloud dynamics, with implications for weather and climate modeling.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在全球变暖的背景下,大气干旱(AD)、暖期持续指数(WSDI)等极端事件的发生和严重程度有所增加,对中亚干旱地区的陆地生态系统造成重大影响。以前的研究集中在单一极端事件,如AD和WSDI,但是,复合干热事件(CHWE)对中亚干旱地区草地物候的影响尚不清楚。本研究利用结构方程模型(SEM)和Pettitt断点检验来量化草地物候的直接和间接响应(季节开始-SOS,季节长度-LOS,和赛季末-EOS)到AD,WSDI,和CHWE。此外,这项研究调查了草地物候对复合干热事件的响应阈值。研究结果表明,AD呈显著上升趋势,WSDI,和CHWE在中亚干旱地区从1982年到2022年(0.51天/年,P<0.01;0.25天/年,P<0.01;0.26天/年,P<0.01)。中亚干旱地区的SOS表现出明显的上升趋势,而EOS表现出显著的进步。LOS表现出增加的趋势(-0.23天/年,P<0.01;-0.12天/年,P<0.01;0.56天/年)。温度主要控制SOS的变化。虽然较高的温度会促进较早的SOS,它们还抵消了CHWE对SOS的延迟作用。AD,温度,CHWE对EOS有负面影响,而WSDI对EOS有积极影响。AD对EOS的负面影响最强,随着AD的增加导致了较早的EOS。温度和WSDI与LOS呈正相关,这表明较高的温度和增加的WSDI有助于较长的LOS。SOS响应的阈值,EOS,和LOS到CHWE分别为16.14、18.49和16.61天,分别。当CHWE超过这些临界阈值时,SOS的反应发生了重大变化,EOS,和LOS给CHWE。这些发现加深了我们对极端气候事件影响中亚草地物候动态的机制的理解。它们有助于更好地保护和管理草地生态系统,并有助于在实践中解决全球变暖和气候变化的影响。
    In the context of global warming, the occurrence and severity of extreme events like atmospheric drought (AD) and warm spell duration index (WSDI) have increased, causing significant impacts on terrestrial ecosystems in Central Asia\'s arid regions. Previous research has focused on single extreme events such as AD and WSDI, but the effect of compound hot and dry events (CHWE) on grassland phenology in the arid regions of Central Asia remains unclear. This study utilized structural equation modeling (SEM) and the Pettitt breakpoint test to quantify the direct and indirect responses of grassland phenology (start of season - SOS, length of season - LOS, and end of season - EOS) to AD, WSDI, and CHWE. Furthermore, this research investigated the threshold of grassland phenology response to compound hot and dry events. The research findings indicate a significant increasing trend in AD, WSDI, and CHWE in the arid regions of Central Asia from 1982 to 2022 (0.51 day/year, P < 0.01; 0.25 day/year, P < 0.01; 0.26 day/year, P < 0.01). SOS in the arid regions of Central Asia showed a significant advancement trend, while EOS exhibited a significant advance. LOS demonstrated an increasing trend (-0.23 day/year, P < 0.01; -0.12 day/year, P < 0.01; 0.56 day/year). The temperature primarily governs the variation in SOS. While higher temperatures promote an earlier SOS, they also offset the delaying effect of CHWE on SOS. AD, temperature, and CHWE have negative impacts on EOS, whereas WSDI has a positive effect on EOS. AD exhibits the strongest negative effect on EOS, with an increase in AD leading to an earlier EOS. Temperature and WSDI are positively correlated with LOS, indicating that higher temperatures and increased WSDI contribute to a longer LOS. The threshold values for the response of SOS, EOS, and LOS to CHWE are 16.14, 18.49, and 16.61 days, respectively. When CHWE exceeds these critical thresholds, there are significant changes in the response of SOS, EOS, and LOS to CHWE. These findings deepen our understanding of the mechanisms by which extreme climate events influence grassland phenology dynamics in Central Asia. They can contribute to better protection and management of grassland ecosystems and help in addressing the impacts of global warming and climate change in practice.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    根据全球气候变化预测,新热带季节性干旱森林(NSDF)是受威胁最大的生态系统之一。尽管如此,很少有研究评估全球气候变化对NSDF植物多样性模式的影响。缺乏完整的生物群落尺度方法限制了我们对高β多样性NSDF中全球气候变化后果的理解。我们分析了全球气候变化对物种分布范围的影响,物种丰富度,和1178个NSDF物种的组合组成(β多样性)。我们使用了五个有代表性的植物家族(就丰度而言,支配地位,和地方性)在NSDF中:仙人掌科,仙人掌科,豆科,锦葵科,和菊科。我们重建了当前和未来(2040-2080)的潜在物种分布,考虑中间共享社会经济途径和对分类单元的两个扩散能力假设。使用资源使用分数索引,我们将气候引起的范围收缩与物种的水分胁迫耐受性相关联。即使在有利的分散情况下,物种分布和丰富度显示,在平均温度和降水季节性预计会增加的地点,未来会出现显着下降。Further,未来物种范围分布的变化与豆科资源的潜在利用呈正相关。结果表明,在分散限制下,生物异质性可能是生物群落规模的短期结果。尽管如此,到2080年,两种分散假设下的主要影响将是均质化,甚至在植物区系核内。这些信息对于进一步确定值得保护的新领域以及未来为物种和整个生物群落制定缓解行动的计划至关重要。
    Neotropical seasonal dry forest (NSDF) is one of the most threatened ecosystems according to global climate change predictions. Nonetheless, few studies have evaluated the global climate change impacts on diversity patterns of NSDF plants. The lack of whole biome-scale approaches restricts our understanding of global climate change consequences in the high beta-diverse NSDF. We analysed the impact of global climate change on species distribution ranges, species richness, and assemblage composition (beta diversity) for 1,178 NSDF species. We used five representative plant families (in terms of abundance, dominance, and endemism) within the NSDF: Cactaceae, Capparaceae, Fabaceae, Malvaceae, and Zygophyllaceae. We reconstructed potential species distributions in the present and future (2040-2080), considering an intermediate Shared Socioeconomic Pathway and two dispersal ability assumptions on the taxa. Using a resource use scores index, we related climate-induced range contractions with species\' water stress tolerance. Even under a favourable dispersal scenario, species distribution and richness showed future significant declines across those sites where mean temperature and precipitation seasonality are expected to increase. Further, changes in species range distribution in the future correlated positively with potential use of resources in Fabaceae. Results suggest that biotic heterogenization will likely be the short-term outcome at biome scale under dispersal limitations. Nonetheless, by 2080, the prevailing effect under both dispersal assumptions will be homogenization, even within floristic nuclei. This information is critical for further defining new areas worth protecting and future planning of mitigation actions for both species and the whole biome.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在实际保护濒危特有山地植物方面,最关键的步骤之一是解决其种群规模状况和栖息地要求,同时了解其对未来全球变暖的反应。三种濒临灭绝的硅烯物种-硅烯白叶树Boiss。,S、schimperanaBoiss。,埃及的S.oreosinaicaChowdhuri是当前研究的重点。检查了这些物种的种群状况变化,栖息地质量变量(地形,土壤特征,和威胁),以及预测当前和未来的分布。为了发现人口规模的变化,比较了最近的实地调查和历史记录。使用随机森林(RF)和规范对应分析(CCA),评估了栖息地偏好。预测当前分布和气候变化响应,使用了合奏模型。结果表明,这三个物种的种群规模持续下降。RF和CCA都解决了这个问题,土壤质地(淤泥,沙子,和粘土部分),土壤湿度,生境类型,氯化物,电导率,和坡度是与栖息地质量相关的重要变量之一。圣凯瑟琳地区的中部北部地区是三种物种的预测当前分布的热点位置,其适宜面积为291.40、293.10和58.29km2。S.schimperana,和S.oreosinaica,分别。与降水相关的变量和海拔是三种硅烯物种当前分布的关键预测因子。为了应对气候变化情景,到2050年和2070年,这三种硅烯物种在预测合适的区域表现出逐渐收缩的趋势,并向上移动。保护这些物种并重新引入预测的当前和未来气候适宜地区是当务之急。迁地保护和加强监测,以及围栏围栏可能会成为保护此类受威胁物种的有希望且有效的方法。
    One of the most crucial steps in the practical conservation of endangered endemic mountain plants is to address their population size status and habitat requirements concurrently with understanding their response to future global warming. Three endangered Silene species-Silene leucophylla Boiss., S. schimperiana Boiss., and S. oreosinaica Chowdhuri-in Egypt were the focus of the current study. These species were examined for population status change, habitat quality variables (topography, soil features, and threats), and predictive current and future distributions. To find population size changes, recent field surveys and historical records were compared. Using Random Forest (RF) and Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA), habitat preferences were assessed. To forecast present-day distribution and climate change response, an ensemble model was used. The results reported a continuous decline in the population size of the three species. Both RF and CCA addressed that elevation, soil texture (silt, sand, and clay fractions), soil moisture, habitat-type, chlorides, electric conductivity, and slope were among the important variables associated with habitat quality. The central northern sector of the Saint Catherine area is the hotspot location for the predictive current distribution of three species with suitable areas of 291.40, 293.10, and 58.29 km2 for S. leucophylla, S. schimperiana, and S. oreosinaica, respectively. Precipitation-related variables and elevation were the key predictors for the current distribution of three Silene species. In response to climate change scenarios, the three Silene species exhibited a gradual contraction in the predictive suitable areas with upward shifts by 2050 and 2070. The protection of these species and reintroduction to the predicted current and future climatically suitable areas are urgent priorities. Ex-situ conservation and raised surveillance, as well as fenced enclosures may catapult as promising and effective approaches to conserving such threatened species.
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