Global Warming

全球变暖
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    通过一种独特的,低振动圆形输送系统,植物传感器捕获光检测和测距(激光雷达)单元和热像仪在同一路线上移动,在一块块苹果树周围,七个MalusxdomesticaBorkh。\'Gala\'每个街区的苹果树。该季节进行了四次测量。此外,在收获时,在三天内记录了18个读数的昼夜课程。数据作为[i]原始数据(从右侧和左侧扫描的3块树木的3D点云和热图像)提供,[ii]用来自热相机的温度数据注释的冠层的经处理的3D点云,和[iii]手动分割水果的3D点云,代表空间分辨的水果表面温度(FST)。在每个测量日期和昼夜课程期间提供手动FST读数。水果数据捕获1236FST,提供温度分布作为3D点云和一个手动记录的参考FST每个水果。此外,测量每个水果的水果大小和颜色,尽管第一次约会,当水果太小而无法读取颜色时。天气数据是从位于果园的车站提供的。数据的使用可以是(a)在开发基于原始数据的3D点云处理的方法中,参考FST数据完成。此外,(b)经过预处理的水果表面温度点云可用于与全球变暖有关的生态生理研究,优化水果生产系统,和其他。因为传感器和树木是从相同的角度和距离测量的,天篷的时间序列分析是可能的。
    By means of a unique, low vibration circular conveyor system, plant sensors capturing light detection and ranging (LiDAR) unit and thermal camera were moved on the same route, around blocks of apple trees, with seven Malus x domestica Borkh. \'Gala\' apple trees in each block. Measurements took place four times during the season. Additionally at harvest, diurnal courses were recorded with 18 readings during three days. The data are provided as [i] raw data (3D point clouds of 3 blocks of trees scanned from right and left sides and thermal images), [ii] processed 3D point clouds of canopies annotated with temperature data from the thermal camera, and [iii] manually segmented 3D point clouds of fruit, representing the spatially-resolved fruit surface temperature (FST). Manual FST readings are provided on each measuring date and during diurnal courses. The fruit data are capturing 1236 FST, providing temperature distribution as 3D point cloud and one manually recorded reference FST per fruit. Additionally, fruit size and colour were measured for each fruit, despite for the first date, when fruit were too small for colour readings. Weather data are provided from a station located in the orchard. Usage of data could be (a) in developing methodology for 3D point cloud processing based on raw data, accomplished with reference FST data. Furthermore, (b) the pre-processed point clouds of fruit surface temperature can be reused in ecophysiological studies related to global warming, optimizing fruit production systems, and other. Because the sensors and trees were measured from the same angle and distance, time series analysis of the canopies would be possible.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    小型哺乳动物动物区系在生态系统动态中起着关键作用,并作为关键的生物多样性指标。然而,最近的研究引起了人们对气候变化引起的哺乳动物数量减少的担忧。因此,人们非常重视研究各种大型旗舰哺乳动物物种的保护。然而,小型哺乳动物,例如猪s(Mustelidae:Arctonyx)在亚洲气候变化的影响方面仍未得到充分研究。本研究全面分析了气候变化对两种大陆猪of的影响,利用集合物种分布模型。调查结果揭示了关于结果的问题,因为只有52%的IUCN范围被认为适合大猪Badger(Arctonyxcollaris),而只有17%适合北猪Badger(Arctonyxalbogularis)。值得注意的是,预测表明,在未来的气候情景下,这两种物种的合适区域可能会减少26%以上,在SSP585的高排放情景中,预计下降最严重。这些下降转化为明显的栖息地碎片化,特别是影响A.collaris,其贴片大幅收缩,与相对稳定的A.albogularis斑块形成对比。然而,尽管存在分歧,生态位重叠分析揭示了两个物种之间重叠的有趣增加,表明潜在的生态变化。该研究强调了将气候变化和栖息地碎片化考虑纳入保护战略的重要性,敦促重新评估自然保护联盟的A.albogularis地位。从这项研究中获得的见解对于通过确保适当的法律保障和维持可行的栖息地之间的生态走廊来改善保护措施至关重要。这对于整个亚洲大陆的猪s的保护至关重要。此外,强调积极努力的紧迫性,特别是在有适当栖息地的国家,可以帮助保护这些小型哺乳动物物种及其生态系统免受气候变化的有害影响。
    The small mammalian fauna plays pivotal roles in ecosystem dynamics and as crucial biodiversity indicators. However, recent research has raised concerns about the decline of mammalian species due to climate change. Consequently, significant attention is directed toward studying various big flagship mammalian species for conservation. However, small mammals such as the hog badgers (Mustelidae: Arctonyx) remain understudied regarding the impacts of climate change in Asia. The present study offers a comprehensive analysis of climate change effects on two mainland hog badger species, utilizing ensemble species distribution modeling. Findings reveal concerning outcomes, as only 52% of the IUCN extent is deemed suitable for the Great Hog Badger (Arctonyx collaris) and a mere 17% is ideal for the Northern Hog Badger (Arctonyx albogularis). Notably, projections suggest a potential reduction of over 26% in suitable areas for both species under future climate scenarios, with the most severe decline anticipated in the high-emission scenario of SSP585. These declines translate into evident habitat fragmentation, particularly impacting A. collaris, whose patches shrink substantially, contrasting with the relatively stable patches of A. albogularis. However, despite their differences, niche overlap analysis reveals an intriguing increase in overlap between the two species, indicating potential ecological shifts. The study underscores the importance of integrating climate change and habitat fragmentation considerations into conservation strategies, urging a reassessment of the IUCN status of A. albogularis. The insights gained from this research are crucial for improving protection measures by ensuring adequate legal safeguards and maintaining ecological corridors between viable habitat patches, which are essential for the conservation of hog badgers across mainland Asia. Furthermore, emphasizing the urgency of proactive efforts, particularly in countries with suitable habitats can help safeguard these small mammalian species and their ecosystems from the detrimental impacts of climate change.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    全球变暖增加了极端气候事件发生的概率,复合极端事件对社会经济和环境的影响比个体极端事件更严重。利用耦合模型比对项目第六阶段(CMIP6),我们预测了未来两个时期在三个共享社会经济路径(SSP)下中国复合极端降水-高温事件的时空变化,并分析了暴露人群的变化并确定了影响因素。从结果来看,我们可以看到,CMIP6有效地再现了降水模式,但表现出偏见。复合事件的频率在SSP中上升,特别是在高辐射强迫下,具有较强的长期上升趋势。此外,经济发达地区,特别是中国东南沿海和华北平原,将成为频繁和激烈的复合极端事件的热点,而其他地区将减少暴露。最后,在长期的未来(2070-2100),人口暴露于复合事件的变化值得注意,强调人口因素对气候因素的影响越来越大。这凸显了人口与气候之间的相互作用在塑造暴露模式方面的重要性。
    Global warming has increased the probability of extreme climate events, with compound extreme events having more severe impacts on socioeconomics and the environment than individual extremes. Utilizing the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), we predicted the spatiotemporal variations of compound extreme precipitation-high temperature events in China under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) across two future periods, and analyzed the changes in exposed populations and identified influencing factors. From the result, we can see that, the CMIP6 effectively reproduces precipitation patterns but exhibits biases. The frequency of compound event rises across SSPs, especially under high radiative forcing, with a stronger long-term upward trend. Furthermore, the economically developed areas, notably China\'s southeastern coast and North China Plain, will be hotspots for frequent and intense compound extreme events, while other regions will see reduced exposure. Finally, in the long-term future (2070-2100), there is a noteworthy shift in population exposure to compound events, emphasizing the increasing influence of population factors over climate factors. This highlights the growing importance of interactions between population and climate in shaping exposure patterns.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在三个相关驱动因素的压力下,环境正在迅速变化:气候变化,污染,生物多样性的丧失。这些环境变化正在以多种方式影响消化系统健康和疾病。极端高温可导致肠和肝功能障碍。获得足够的高营养含量食物和清洁水受到威胁。极端天气与洪水和肠道感染有关,并通过基础设施损失影响护理的提供。空气,水,化学品和塑料造成的土壤污染正在成为各种肠道疾病的危险因素,包括嗜酸性粒细胞性食管炎,代谢功能障碍相关的脂肪肝疾病,消化道癌症,炎症性肠病,和功能性肠病。人口向城市和国家之间的迁移对提供消化系统护理构成了特殊挑战。全球消化卫生界对环境变化威胁的反应正在顺利进行,特别是关于了解和减少内窥镜检查对环境的影响。个人,和同伴社会,变得越来越投入,并在应对挑战中发挥重要作用。
    The environment is changing rapidly under pressure from 3 related drivers: climate change, pollution, and biodiversity loss. These environmental changes are affecting digestive health and disease in multiple ways. Heat extremes can cause intestinal and hepatic dysfunction. Access to adequate amounts of food of high nutritional content and to clean water is under threat. Extreme weather is associated with flooding and enteric infections and affects the delivery of care through infrastructure loss. Air, water, and soil pollution from chemicals and plastics are emerging as risk factors for a variety of intestinal diseases including eosinophilic esophagitis, metabolic dysfunction associated fatty liver disease, digestive tract cancers, inflammatory bowel disease, and functional bowel disease. Migration of populations to cities and between countries poses a special challenge to the delivery of digestive care. The response to the threat of environmental change is well underway in the global digestive health community, especially with regard to understanding and reducing the environmental impact of endoscopy. Individuals, and peer societies, are becoming more engaged, and have an important role to play in meeting the challenge.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    2016年至2024年间,澳大利亚大堡礁(GBR)上的大规模珊瑚白化是由高海面温度(SST)1驱动的。温度引起的漂白的可能性是GBR2未来威胁状态的关键决定因素,但该地区近期温度的长期背景尚不清楚。在这里,我们表明2024年,2017年和2020年1月至3月的珊瑚海极端高温(按平均SST异常下降的顺序)是400年来最温暖的,超过我们重建的1900年前最大值的第95个百分位不确定度极限。2016年、2004年和2022年事件是下一个最温暖的事件,超过90%的限制。气候模型分析证实,人类对气候系统的影响是近几十年来迅速变暖的原因。这个属性,加上最近的海洋温度极值,1900年后的变暖趋势和观察到的大量珊瑚白化,表明,人为气候变化对GBR生态系统的生存威胁现已实现。如果没有紧急干预,标志性的GBR有可能经历有利于近一年珊瑚漂白的温度3,对生物多样性和生态系统服务产生负面影响。当前轨迹的延续将进一步威胁到地球上最伟大的自然奇观之一的生态功能4和突出的普遍价值5。
    Mass coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) in Australia between 2016 and 2024 was driven by high sea surface temperatures (SST)1. The likelihood of temperature-induced bleaching is a key determinant for the future threat status of the GBR2, but the long-term context of recent temperatures in the region is unclear. Here we show that the January-March Coral Sea heat extremes in 2024, 2017 and 2020 (in order of descending mean SST anomalies) were the warmest in 400 years, exceeding the 95th-percentile uncertainty limit of our reconstructed pre-1900 maximum. The 2016, 2004 and 2022 events were the next warmest, exceeding the 90th-percentile limit. Climate model analysis confirms that human influence on the climate system is responsible for the rapid warming in recent decades. This attribution, together with the recent ocean temperature extremes, post-1900 warming trend and observed mass coral bleaching, shows that the existential threat to the GBR ecosystem from anthropogenic climate change is now realized. Without urgent intervention, the iconic GBR is at risk of experiencing temperatures conducive to near-annual coral bleaching3, with negative consequences for biodiversity and ecosystems services. A continuation on the current trajectory would further threaten the ecological function4 and outstanding universal value5 of one of Earth\'s greatest natural wonders.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    捕食者对变暖的反应可以通过表型可塑性发生,进化适应或两者的结合,改变它们对猎物群落的自上而下的影响。然而,我们缺乏气候变暖引起的捕食者进化变化如何影响天然食物网的证据.这里,我们询问,与经历自然热状态的附近物种相比,多代受变暖影响的野生鱼类对猎物群落的影响是否不同。我们用幼虫鲈鱼(Percafluviatilis)进行了普通的花园中观实验,源自加热或参考沿海环境,在实验温度的梯度下,以浮游动物群落为食。总的来说,在加热鱼的存在下,浮游动物的丰度更高,并且没有随着实验变暖而变化,而在存在未加热来源的鱼的情况下,随着实验温度的下降。浮游动物分类学和大小组成的响应表明,随着温度的升高,加热来源的幼虫消耗更多的大型类群。我们的发现表明,鱼类种群之间的差异,可能代表对其长期热环境的适应,会影响丰度,生物量,猎物群落的大小和物种组成。这表明,捕食者对持续气候变暖的快速微进化可能会通过食物网传播产生间接的跨代生态后果。
    Predator responses to warming can occur via phenotypic plasticity, evolutionary adaptation or a combination of both, changing their top-down effects on prey communities. However, we lack evidence of how warming-induced evolutionary changes in predators may influence natural food webs. Here, we ask whether wild fish subject to warming across multiple generations differ in their impacts on prey communities compared with their nearby conspecifics experiencing a natural thermal regime. We carried out a common garden mesocosm experiment with larval perch (Perca fluviatilis), originating from a heated or reference coastal environment, feeding on zooplankton communities under a gradient of experimental temperatures. Overall, in the presence of fish of heated origin, zooplankton abundance was higher and did not change with experimental warming, whereas in the presence of fish of unheated origin, it declined with experimental temperature. Responses in zooplankton taxonomic and size composition suggest that larvae of heated origin consume more large-sized taxa as the temperature increases. Our findings show that differences between fish populations, potentially representing adaptation to their long-term thermal environments, can affect the abundance, biomass, size and species composition of their prey communities. This suggests that rapid microevolution in predators to ongoing climate warming might have indirect cross-generational ecological consequences propagating through food webs.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    确定按性别和国家划分的臭氧相关慢性阻塞性肺疾病(COPD)负担的长期时空趋势,并探索潜在的驱动因素。
    我们从2019年全球疾病负担中检索了与臭氧相关的COPD死亡和残疾调整生命年(DALY)的数据。我们使用年龄标准化率(ASR)的自然对数与日历年的线性回归来检查ASR的趋势,并使用面板回归来确定与趋势相关的国家/地区因素。
    在1990年至2019年期间,全球由臭氧引起的COPD死亡人数在男性中从117,114人增加到208,342人,在女性中从90,265人增加到156,880人。尽管臭氧相关COPD死亡和DALY的ASR在全球范围内有所下降,他们在中低社会人口指数(SDI)地区有所增加,女性的崛起速度更快。平均最高温度升高与较高的臭氧可归因于COPD的负荷有关,而更多的绿色空间与更低的负担相关。
    在中低SDI地区需要更多的努力,尤其是对女性来说,以减少臭氧可归因于COPD的国家间不平等。全球变暖可能会加剧这种负担。扩大绿色空间可以减轻负担。
    UNASSIGNED: To identify the long-term spatiotemporal trend of ozone-related chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) burden by sex and country and to explore potential drivers.
    UNASSIGNED: We retrieved data of ozone-related COPD death and disability adjusted life year (DALY) from the Global Burden of Disease 2019. We used a linear regression of natural logarithms of age-standardized rates (ASRs) with calendar year to examine the trends in ASRs and a panel regression to identify country-level factors associated with the trends.
    UNASSIGNED: Global ozone-attributable COPD deaths increased from 117,114 to 208,342 among men and from 90,265 to 156,880 among women between 1990 and 2019. Although ASRs of ozone-related COPD death and DALY declined globally, they increased in low and low-middle Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions, with faster rise in women. Elevated average maximum temperature was associated with higher ozone-attributable COPD burden, while more green space was associated with lower burden.
    UNASSIGNED: More efforts are needed in low and low-middle SDI regions, particularly for women, to diminish inter-country inequality in ozone-attributable COPD. Global warming may exacerbate the burden. Expanding green space may mitigate the burden.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    全球气候变化显著影响气象变量,如温度,影响世界各国和地区。在这项研究中,分析了土耳其七个地区市中心28个站点的月平均温度数据,该数据跨越了73年(1950-2022年)。使用奇异谱分析(SSA)和最小二乘多项式拟合(LSPF)方法计算了选定站点和整个国家的站点增温率(SWR)。直到1970年代后期,土耳其的温度趋势一直呈下降趋势,其次是由于全球变暖而持续上升。在1980年至2022年之间,土耳其的平均SWR为0.52°C/十年。确定SWR在Antakya中最低(0.28°C/十年),在Erzincan中最高(0.69°C/十年)。SWR与纬度的关系,经度,高度,并通过线性回归分析探讨了到空岛的距离(D2NI)。海拔高度和D2NI是最重要的变量,影响SWR。对于高度,相关系数(R)为0.39,有统计学意义(p)为0.039.对于D2NI,R,p值分别为0.39和0.038。此外,在涉及海拔高度和D2NI的多元回归分析中,R和p值分别测定为0.50和0.029。此外,共线性分析表明高度和D2NI之间没有共线性,这表明它们的影响在多元回归中是分开的。
    Global climate change notably influences meteorological variables such as temperature, affecting regions and countries worldwide. In this study, monthly average temperature data spanning 73 years (1950-2022) were analyzed for 28 stations in the city centers across seven regions of Turkey. The station warming rates (SWR) were calculated for selected stations and the overall country using Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) and Least Square Polynomial Fit (LSPF) methods. The temperature trend in Turkey exhibited a decline until the late 1970s, followed by a continuous rise due to global warming. Between 1980 and 2022, the average SWR in Turkey was found to be 0.52 °C/decade. The SWR was determined to be the lowest in Antakya (0.28 °C/decade) and the highest in Erzincan (0.69 °C/decade). The relationship between SWR and latitude, longitude, altitude, and distance to Null Island (D2NI) was explored through linear regression analysis. Altitude and D2NI were found to be the most significant variables, influencing the SWR. For altitude, the correlation coefficient (R) was 0.39 with a statistically significant value (p) of 0.039. For D2NI, R, and p values were 0.39 and 0.038, respectively. Furthermore, in the multiple regression analysis involving altitude and D2NI, R and p values were determined to be 0.50 and 0.029, respectively. Furthermore, the collinearity analysis indicates no collinearity between altitude and D2NI, suggesting that their effects are separated in the multiple regression.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    微生物是全球生物地球化学循环的关键驱动因素,它们的功能作用取决于温度。庞大的种群规模和快速的更替率意味着微生物对环境变暖的主要反应可能是进化的,然而,我们对微生物系统中温度变化的进化反应的理解是基本的。天然微生物群落是相互作用分类群的不同组合。然而,大多数研究细菌对温度变化的进化反应的研究都集中在单一培养。这里,我们利用细菌在单一培养和群落环境中沿着热梯度的高通量实验进化来确定种间相互作用如何影响群落成员的热适应。我们发现,与单文化进化的分离株相比,群落进化的分离株在温度梯度上的最大增长率更高。我们也几乎没有证据表明细菌热耐受性曲线沿热梯度的形状发生了系统的进化变化。然而,群落背景和选择温度对热耐受曲线演变的影响是可变的,并且具有高度的分类单元特异性,一些分类单元表现出明显的耐热性变化,而另一些则受到的影响较小。我们还发现温度是一个强大的环境过滤器,导致分类单元沿热梯度局部灭绝,这意味着温度驱动的生态变化是塑造进化选择可以运作的社区背景的关键因素。这些发现为社区背景如何影响热适应提供了新的见解。
    Microbes are key drivers of global biogeochemical cycles, and their functional roles arey dependent on temperature. Large population sizes and rapid turnover rates mean that the predominant response of microbes to environmental warming is likely to be evolutionary, yet our understanding of evolutionary responses to temperature change in microbial systems is rudimentary. Natural microbial communities are diverse assemblages of interacting taxa. However, most studies investigating the evolutionary response of bacteria to temperature change are focused on monocultures. Here, we utilize high-throughput experimental evolution of bacteria in both monoculture and community contexts along a thermal gradient to determine how interspecific interactions influence the thermal adaptation of community members. We found that community-evolved isolates tended toward higher maximum growth rates across the temperature gradient compared to their monoculture-evolved counterparts. We also saw little evidence of systematic evolutionary change in the shapes of bacterial thermal tolerance curves along the thermal gradient. However, the effect of community background and selection temperature on the evolution of thermal tolerance curves was variable and highly taxon-specific,with some taxa exhibiting pronounced changes in thermal tolerance while others were less impacted. We also found that temperature acted as a strong environmental filter, resulting in the local extinction of taxa along the thermal gradient, implying that temperature-driven ecological change was a key factor shaping the community background upon which evolutionary selection can operate. These findings offer novel insight into how community background impacts thermal adaptation.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    气候变化,主要由人为温室气体(GHGs)排放引发,似乎不可阻挡。CO2的人为排放量强劲反弹,CO2是对全球变暖的贡献最大的温室气体,在COVID-19封锁后,世界各地。此外,目前还没有被广泛接受的国际条约来遏制CH4和N2O的人为排放,第二和第三主要温室气体,分别,到目前为止。因此,表面上看,在缓解气候变化方面,目前,人类没有王牌。似乎当前的温度上升还不足以引起警报,直到发生临界点。
    与气候有关的国际条约,比如2016年巴黎协定,是相互冲突的地缘政治压力中的妥协。然而,目前,气候条约对能够违反然后脱离苏格兰的签署国几乎没有强制性约束力,因此可能会像鼻梁一样结束。纵观欧洲历史,我发现唯一的办法,如果有的话,实现条约的和平或服从是通过平衡权力,体现在俾斯麦的德国现实政治和黎塞留的法国Raisond'état。同样,中国在东亚的历史证明了纯朴的意识形态中立性和达尔文的适应性在不断发展的情况的万花筒中的重要性,以通过平衡竞争的力量来限制不断重复出现的挑战者来维持国际条约的秩序和执行。
    一项成功的政策需要对所有相关因素进行透彻的分析,以形成长期的战略构想。然后,政治家需要提炼一系列模糊的东西,总是矛盾的选择变成顽强的,可控方向。因此,我建议,为了更好地遏制全球变暖,气候协议或气候俱乐部被纳入国际社会的整体地缘政治框架。
    UNASSIGNED: Climate change, largely triggered by human-induced greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions, seems unstoppable. There was a strong rebound of anthropogenic emissions of CO 2, the preponderant GHG in terms of contribution to global warming, around the world after the COVID-19 lockdown. Also, there is still no widely accepted international treaty on curbing the anthropogenic emissions of CH 4 and N 2O, the second and third predominant GHG, respectively, so far. Thereby, prima facie, in respect to mitigating climate change, currently, humans have no aces up their sleeves. It seems that current temperature rise is not high enough to take alarm until the occurrence of tipping point.
    UNASSIGNED: Climate-related international treaties, such as 2016 Paris agreement, are compromises among conflicting geopolitical pressures. However, currently, the climate treaties show little mandatory binding force on the signatories who are able to violate and then get off scot-free, thus may end up like a nostrum. Throughout the European history, I find that the only way, if at all, to achieve the peace or obedience of a treaty is via balancing powers, embodied in Bismarck\'s Realpolitik of Germany and Richelieu\'s Raison d\'état of France. Similarly, the Chinese history in East Asia proved the significance of unadulterated ideological neutrality and Darwinian adaptability in the kaleidoscope of evolving circumstances in maintaining order and enforcement of international treaties through balancing the power of rivalries to constrain ever-recurring challengers for equilibrium.
    UNASSIGNED: A successful policy needs to make a thorough analysis of all relevant factors to form a long-term strategic notion. Then, statesmen need to distill an array of nebulous, always contradictory options into a tenacious, controllable direction. Thereby, I suggest that, for better curbing global warming, climate agreements or climate club be incorporated into an overall geopolitical framework among the international communities.
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